Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model

作     者：Nicola Parolini Luca Dede' Giovanni Ardenghi Alfio Quarteroni 

作者机构：MOXDepartment of MathematicsPolitecnico di MilanoItaly Institute of MathematicsEcole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne(EPFL)Switzerland 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第2期

页      面：45-63页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：Dipartimento perle politiche della famiglia Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri under the Agreement“Un modello matematico per lo studio dell'epidemia da COVID19 su scala nazionale”(DIPOFAM 0000192 P-4.26.1.9 15/01/2021) 

主　　题：Compartmental model COVID-19 Vaccination Virus variants Forecast Scenario analyses 

摘      要：Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 *** this paper,we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model,to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy,which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become *** particular,the specific features of the variants(*** increased transmission rate)and vaccines(*** efficacy to prevent transmission,hospitalization and death)are modeled,based on clinical *** new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.