Effect of vaccination,border testing,and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand:A modelling study

作     者：Nicholas Steyn Audrey Lustig Shaun C.Hendy Rachelle N.Binny Michael J.Plank 

作者机构：Department of PhysicsUniversity of AucklandNew Zealand School of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of CanterburyNew Zealand Te Punaha MatatiniCentre of Research Excellence in Complex SystemsNew Zealand Manaaki WhenuaLincolnNew Zealand 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第1期

页      面：184-198页

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business,Innovation and Employment COVID-19 Programme the New Zealand Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet Te Punaha Matatini,Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems 

主　　题：vaccine testing border 

摘      要：We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population.We use this model to estimate the risk of an infectious traveller causing a community outbreak under various border control strategies and different levels of vaccine coverage in the population.Results are calculated from N¼100,000 independent realisations of the stochastic model.We find that strategies that rely on home isolation are significantly higher risk than the current mandatory 14-day stay in government-managed isolation.Nevertheless,combinations of testing and home isolation can still reduce the risk of a community outbreak to around one outbreak per 100 infected travellers.We also find that,under some circumstances,using daily lateral flow tests or a combination of lateral flow tests and polymerase chain reaction(PCR)tests can reduce risk to a comparable or lower level than using PCR tests alone.Combined with controls on the number of travellers from countries with high prevalence of COVID-19,our results allow different options for managing the risk of COVID-19 at the border to be compared.This can be used to inform strategies for relaxing border controls in a phased way,while limiting the risk of community outbreaks as vaccine coverage increases.