Will the large-scale vaccination succeed in containing the COVID-19 pandemic and how soon?

作     者：Shilei Zhao Tong Sha Chung-I Wu Yongbiao Xue Hua Chen Shilei Zhao;Tong Sha;Chung-I Wu;Yongbiao Xue;Hua Chen

作者机构：Beijing Institute of GenomicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China National Center for BioinformationBeijing 100101China School of Future TechnologyUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of BiocontrolSchool of Life SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of ChicagoChicagoIL 60637USA CAS Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and GeneticsChinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650223China 

出 版 物：《Quantitative Biology》 (定量生物学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第9卷第3期

页      面：304-316页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2020YFC0847000) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.31571370,91731302 and 31772435) 

主　　题：COVID-19 vaccination pandemic epidemic dynamics epidemiological model 

摘      要：Background:The availability of vaccines provides a promising solution to contain the COVID-19 ***,it remains unclear whether the large-scale vaccination can succeed in containing the COVID-19 pandemic and how *** developed an epidemiological model named SUVQC(Suceptible-Unquarantined-Vaccined-Quarantined-Conflrmed)to quantitatively analyze and predict the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 under ***:In addition to the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs),our model explicitly parameterizes key factors related to vaccination,including the duration of immunity,vaccine efficacy,and daily vaccination rate *** model was applied to the daily reported numbers of confirmed cases of Israel and the USA to explore and predict trends under vaccination based on their current epidemic statuses and intervention *** further provided a formula for designing a practical vaccination strategy,which simultaneously considers the effects of the basic reproductive number of COVID-19,intensity of NPIs,duration of immunological memory after vaccination,vaccine efficacy and daily vaccination ***:In Israel,53.83%of the population is fully vaccinated,and under the current NPI intensity and vaccination scheme,the pandemic is predicted to end between May 14,2021,and May 16,2021,assuming immunity persists for 180 days to 365 *** NPIs are not implemented after March 24,2021,the pandemic will end later,between July 4,2021,and August 26,*** the USA,if we assume the current vaccination rate(0.268%per day)and intensity of NPIs,the pandemic will end between January 20,2022,and October 19,2024,assuming immunity persists for 180 days to 365 ***,assuming immunity persists for 180 days and no NPIs are implemented,the pandemic will not end and instead reach an equilibrium state,with a proportion of the population remaining actively ***:Overall,the daily vaccination rate should be decided according to vaccine effica