Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds

作     者：ZHANG YongYong XIA Jun SHAO QuanXi LI Lu YEN Haw ZHAI XiaoYan ZHAO TongTieGang LIN KaiRong ZHANG YongYong;XIA Jun;SHAO QuanXi;LI Lu;YEN Haw;ZHAI XiaoYan;ZHAO TongTieGang;LIN KaiRong

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface ProcessesInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China CSIRO Data 61WembleyWestern Australia6913Australia Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchNORCE Norwegian Research CentreBergen5007Norway Blackland Research and Extension CenterTexas A&M UniversityTempleTexas76502USA China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing100038China Department of Water Resources and EnvironmentSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou510275China 

出 版 物：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 (中国科学（技术科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第64卷第8期

页      面：1791-1804页

核心收录：

学科分类：082802[工学-农业水土工程] 08[工学] 0828[工学-农业工程] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42071041 and 41807171) the Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51822908) 

主　　题：module uncertainty propagated uncertainty uncertainty combination integrated water system simulations GLUE 

摘      要：Integrated water quantity and quality simulations have become a popular tool in investigations on global water *** integrated and complex models,conventional uncertainty estimations focus on the uncertainties of individual modules,e.g.,module parameters and structures,and do not consider the uncertainties propagated from interconnected ***,this study investigated all the uncertainties of integrated water system simulations using the GLUE(i.e.,generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation)method,including uncertainties associated with individual modules,propagated uncertainties associated with interconnected modules,and their *** changes in both acceptability thresholds of GLUE and the uncertainty estimation results were also investigated for different fixed percentages of total number of iterations(100000).Water quantity and quality variables(i.e.,runoff and ammonium nitrogen)were selected for the case *** results showed that module uncertainty did not affect the runoff simulation performance,but remarkably weakened the water quality responses as the fixed percentage increased during calibration and validation *** propagated uncertainty from hydrological modules could not be ignored for water quality simulations,particularly during *** combination of module and propagated uncertainties further weakened the water quality simulation *** uncertainty intervals became wider owing to an increase in the fixed percentages and introduction of more uncertainty ***,the acceptability threshold had a negative nonlinear relationship with the fixed *** fixed percentages(20.0%-30.0%)were proposed as the acceptability thresholds owing to the satisfactory simulation performance and noticeably reduced uncertainty intervals they *** study provided methodological foundations for estimating multiple uncertainty sources of integrated water system models.