Decision Support for Integrated Management of Local-Level Adaptation to Climate Changes: The Case of Serbia

作     者：Petar Vranić Srđan Glišović Lazar Velimirović Petar Vrani?;Sr(d)an Gli?ovi?;Lazar Velimirovi?

作者机构：Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts11001BelgradeSerbia Faculty of Occupational Safety in NišUniversity of Niš18000NišSerbia 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第12卷第4期

页      面：479-494页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development through the Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts 

主　　题：Bayesian networks Climate change adaptation Multicriteria decision-making Serbia Wildfire risk 

摘      要：Projected climate changes will additionally increase the already significant risk of natural hazard-related disasters in Serbia and the west Balkan region as a *** is about to introduce the strategy for climate change adaptation and ***,a national decision-support system for implementation of the climate change law and strategy is yet to be *** study contributes to the implementation of adaptation policies at subnational levels by development of a decision-support model for local-level management of the climate change adaptation *** study explores the potential for synergetic application of multicriteria decision making analysis and probabilistic reasoning methods by focusing on Bayesian networks,analytical hierarchy processes,and geographic information systems for selection of priority adaptation *** study was based on the formation of causal chains,which enable linking management decisions and socioeconomic or biophysical consequences into articulated sequences of conditional relationships.A model was tested in the forestry sector,and it clearly pointed out development of an early warning system and planning of water intake basins as priority adaptation *** the results are shown as a probability distribution for each alternative solutions,the model can assist decision makers with prompt evaluation of various scenarios.