Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19—a revisit to Singapore's case
作者机构：School of Mathematical SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Shanghai Key Laboratory for Contemporary Applied MathematicsFudan UniversityShanghai 200433China School of MathematicsShanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghai 200433China Daishan County Center for Disease Control and PreventionDaishan 316200China
出 版 物：《Quantitative Biology》 (定量生物学（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2020年第8卷第4期
页 面：325-335页
核心收录：
学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 0831[工学-生物医学工程（可授工学、理学、医学学位）] 1002[医学-临床医学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）]
基 金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11671098) partially supported by Shanghai Science and technology research program(No.19JC1420101) J.C.is supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11971121) Y.Y.is supported by Shanghai Sailing Program(No.20YF1412400).
主 题：COVID-19 Singapore multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model
摘 要：Background:COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly since late December 2019.Rapidly increasing infections has raised intense worldwide attention.How to model the evolution of COVID-19 effectively and efficiently is of great significance for prevention and control.Methods:We propose the multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model based on the original single-chain model in[Shao et al.2020]to describe the evolution of COVID-19 in Singapore.Multi-chains can be considered as the superposition of several single chains with different characteristics.We identify the parameters of models by minimizing the penalty function.Results:The numerical simulation results exhibit the multi-chain model performs well on data fitting.Though unsteady the increments are,they could still fall within the range of±30%fluctuation from simulation results.Conclusion:The multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model provides an effective way to early detect the appearance of imported infectors and super spreaders and forecast a second outbreak.It can also explain the data from those countries where the single-chain model shows deviation from the data.
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