An evaluation of COVID-19 in Italy:A data-driven modeling analysis

作     者：Yongmei Ding Liyuan Gao 

作者机构：College of ScienceWuhan University of Science and TechnologyHuangjiahu West Road430065WuhanChina 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第5卷第1期

页      面：495-501页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

主　　题：COVID-19 Italy Modified SEIR 

摘      要：The novel coronavirus(COVID-19)that has been spreading worldwide since December 2019 has sickened millions of people,lock down major cities and some countries,prompted unprecedented global travel restrictions.Real data-driven modeling is an effort to help evaluate and curb the spread of the novel virus.Lockdowns and the effectiveness of reduction in the contacts in Italy has been measured via our modified model,with the addition of auxiliary and state variables that represent,contacts with infected,conversion rate and latent propagation.Results show the decrease in infected people due to stay-athome orders and tracing quarantine intervention.The effect of quarantine and centralized medical treatment was also measured through numerical modeling analysis.