Logistic Model for Customer Dynamics in the Mobile Telecommunication Sector

作     者：Juan Carlos Pascual Medina 

作者机构：Centro Universitario Incarnate Word Mexico DF Mexico 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mathematics and System Science》 (数学和系统科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第4卷第10期

页      面：689-694页

学科分类：080904[工学-电磁场与微波技术] 0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 0809[工学-电子科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 07[理学] 08[工学] 080402[工学-测试计量技术及仪器] 070104[理学-应用数学] 0804[工学-仪器科学与技术] 081001[工学-通信与信息系统] 0701[理学-数学] 

主　　题：Complexity logistics telecommunications stochastic dynamics economy 

摘      要：Starting from the last decade of the 90＇s mobile phone makes its appearance in the world markets, in Mexico it＇s also on that date that the first companies are formed, today there are only four mobile companies that compete strongly for the Mexican market, In this article we use the logistic model （S - shaped logistic curve）, which describes competitive environments, especially for the popularization of new technologies, to describe the dynamics of the telecommunications sector in Mexico and the probability of the companies to fail and disappear in the market. In economic articles, we see more attention to the dynamics of monopolistic competition and power companies, but it is less used the study of the sales dynamics of the sector and the curves that represent it. The proposed model uses as data the total number of subscribers to mobile phone lines to generate the logistic curves of each company and the total market, in search of main points singularities and stability conditions as predictors of the extinction of technologies and the shot-down of companies in the sector.