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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the south china Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial key laboratory of Regional Numerical weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the south china Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and south china Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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How the enhanced East Asian summer monsoon regulates total gross primary production in eastern china

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 244-252页

作者： Ming-Yu HAN Yong ZHANG Jing PENG china State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China china Meteorological Administration Institute for Development and Programme Design Beijing 100081China CAS key laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029China

Recognizing the relationship between gross primary production(GPP)and precipitation in eastern china,the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)plays a crucial role in shaping *** confirmation of the strong link between EASM and GPP,there remains a notable research gap in understanding the specific impact of the EASM on GPP in different regions of eastern *** we used simulations from Trends in Net Land-Atmosphere Carbon Exchanges(TRENDY)models from 1951 to 2010 and divided eastern china into five subregions for the *** also used the New East Asian Summer Monsoon Index(NEWI)as a quantitative metric to distinguish between periods of strong and weak *** on this,this study aims to investigate the response of GPP in different subregions of eastern ***,under strengthened EASM years(1954,1957,1965,1969,1977,1980,1983,1987,1993 and 1998),East china experienced the most pronounced increase in GPP at 12±21(mean±1 sigma)gC m^(-2) mon^(-1) compared to the weak EASM years(1958,1961,1972,1973,1978,1981,1985,1994,1997 and 2004).In contrast,southwest china showed a decline in GPP at-4±10 gC m^(-2) mon^(-1).Moreover,GPP also increased in Northeast and North china when EASM strengthened,while south china showed a decline in *** indicated that GPP changed with monsoon *** to the mechanism analysis,during strong EASM,there was intense moisture convergence through alterations in the atmospheric circulation field over East china and abundant precipitation,which further contributed to the increase in *** solar radiation in southwest china decreased with EASM enhancement,which suppressed GPP and hindered vegetation ***,the results highlight the importance of accurately predicting the impact of different EASM intensities of regional carbon fluxes.

关键词： Gross primary production Surface air temperature Precipitation Solar radiation Eastern china Carbon cycle

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Diagnostic Study of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension Region

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Journal of Ocean University of china 2024年第3期23卷 605-617页

作者： ZHANG Shuqin LIAO Qinghua LIU Chunlei GAO Xiaoyu LONG Jingchao LI Pengyuan XU Jianjun College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China south china Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China CMA-GDOU Joint laboratory for Marine Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China key laboratory of Climate Resources and Environment in Continental Shelf Sea and Deep Sea of Department of Education of Guangdong ProvinceGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Marine Meteorology Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate LaboratoryKey Laboratory of Physical OceanographyOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension *** most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing *** EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing *** low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate *** diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this *** cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low *** relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing *** non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.

关键词： explosive cyclone diabatic heating cyclonic-vorticity advection rapid intensification the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region

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Combinatorial Optimization of Physics Parameterization Schemes for Typhoon Simulation Based on a Simple Genetic Algorithm(SGA)

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 10-26页

作者： Zebin LU Jianjun XU Zhiqiang CHEN Jinyi YANG Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG Daosheng XU Banglin ZHANG china Meteorological Administration–Guangdong Ocean University Joint laboratory for Marine Meteorology South China Sea Institute of Marine MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088 College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial key laboratory of Regional Numerical weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510640 shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University Shenzhen 518120 College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000

Each physical process in a numerical weather prediction(NWP)system may have many different parameterization *** studies have shown that the performance of different physical parameterization schemes varies with the weather situation to be ***,it is necessary to select a suitable combination of physical parameterization schemes according to the variation of weather ***,it is rather difficult to identify an optimal combination among millions of possible parameterization scheme *** study applied a simple genetic algorithm(SGA)to optimizing the combination of parameterization schemes in NWP models for typhoon *** feasibility of SGA was verified with the simulation of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)by using the weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model and Typhoon Higos(2020)by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport(COAWST)modeling *** results show that SGA can efficiently obtain the optimal combination of *** Typhoon Mujigae(2015),the optimal combination can be found from the 1,304,576 possible combinations by running only 488 *** results can be obtained for Typhoon Higos(2020).Compared to the default combination proposed by the COAWST model system,the optimal combination scheme significantly improves the simulation of typhoon track and *** study provides a feasible way to search for the optimal combinations of physical parameterization schemes in WRF and COAWST for more accurate typhoon *** can help provide references for future development of NWP models,and for analyzing the coordination and adaptability of different physical process parameterization schemes under specific weather backgrounds.

关键词： simple genetic algorithm(SGA) combinatorial optimization typhoon forecast numerical weather prediction(NWP)

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Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Remote Precipitation over china

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Journal of Ocean University of china 2024年第4期23卷 845-858页

作者： JIA Li REN Fumin MCBRIDE John Leonard CONG Chunhua School of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China School of Earth Science University of MelbourneMelbourne 3052Australia Research and Development Division Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne 3052Australia Shandong Meteorological Bureau Jinan 250031China

In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over china during the period from 1979 to 2020 are *** indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Western Pacific produce TRP over *** peak months for TRP are July and *** four key regions of TRP are the adjacent areas between the Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces,the northern coast of the Bohai Sea,the coast of the Yellow Sea,and the southern coast *** typical distance between the station with TRP and the TC center ranges from 1500 to 2500 *** of these stations are situated north to 60°west of north of the *** south–west water vapor transportation on the west side of the TC is crucial to *** has a decreasing trend because of the decrease in the number of TCs that generate *** the perspective of large-scale environmental conditions,a decrease in the integrated horizontal water vapor transport in china' Mainland,the weakening of upward motion at approximately 25°–35°N,which is inconducive to convection,and an increase in low-level vertical wind shear,which is unfavorable for the development of TC in areas with high frequencies of TRP-related TCs,are the factors that result in the decreasing trend of TRP.

关键词： tropical cyclone remote precipitation characteristics causes

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Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the south china Sea:insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第7期 15-25页

作者： Kai Liu Kang Xu Tongxin Han Congwen Zhu Nina Li Anboyu Guo Xiaolu Huang National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center State key laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory

This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6) in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs) in the south china Sea(SCS) during the historical period(1982-2014), and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP) scenarios(SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) using CMIP6 models. Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME) results showing the best performance. The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend. Under various SSP scenarios, the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs, marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes. This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity, duration, and total days after 2040. Furthermore, the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods. However, the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021-2050), while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041-2070) and long-term(2071-2100) periods under the three SSP scenarios. During the nearterm period, the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations. In contrast, during the medium-term period, MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events, but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. However,in the long-term period, extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario, indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs, effectively establishing a near-permanent state

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Early Detection of the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 Lineage Through Wastewater Surveillance Using a Mediator Probe PCR Assay—shenzhen City,Guangdong Province,china,2023

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china CDC weekly 2024年第15期6卷 332-338,I0008,I0009页

作者： Chen Du Yuejing Peng Ziquan Lyu Zhijiao Yue Yulin Fu Xiangjie Yao Jinzhen Tang Guixian Luo Chenxi Gao Shisong Fang Xiaolu Shi Chengsong Wan Yinghui Li Qinghua Hu shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention Shenzhen CityGuangdong ProvinceChina BSL-3 laboratory(Guangdong) Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease ResearchSchool of Public HealthSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Department of Public Health laboratory Sciences School of Public HealthHengyang Medical SchoolUniversity of South ChinaHengyang CityHunan ProvinceChina School of Public Health Shanxi Medical UniversityTaiyuan CityShanxi ProvinceChina

Introduction:The emergence of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)Omicron sublineage,BA.2.86,has sparked global public health concerns for its potential heightened transmissibility and immune *** data from shenzhen’s city-wide wastewater surveillance system,we highlight the presence of the BA.2.86 lineage in ***:A mediator probe polymerase chain reaction(PCR)assay was developed to detect the BA.2.86 lineage in wastewater by targeting a specific mutation(Spike:A264D).Between September 19 and December 10,2023,781 wastewater samples from 38 wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs)and 9 pump stations in ten districts of shenzhen were *** multiple short-amplicon sequencing,three positive samples were ***:The BA.2.86 lineage was identified in the wastewater of Futian and Nanshan districts in shenzhen on December 2,*** December 2 to 10,a total of 21 BA.2.86-positive wastewater samples were found across 6 districts(Futian,Nanshan,Longhua,Baoan,Longgang,and Luohu)in *** weighted average viral load of the BA.2.86 lineage in shenzhen’s wastewater was 43.5 copies/L on December 2,increased to 219.8 copies/L on December 4,and then decreased to approximately 100 copies/L on December 6,8,and ***:The mediator probe PCR assay,designed for swift detection of low viral concentrations of the BA.2.86 lineage in wastewater samples,shows promise for detecting different SARS-CoV-2 *** surveillance could serve as an early detection system for promptly identifying specific SARS-CoV-2 variants as they emerge.

关键词： wastewater Wastewater district

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Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the south china Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第7期43卷 15-25页

作者： Kai Liu Kang Xu Tongxin Han Congwen Zhu Nina Li Anboyu Guo Xiaolu Huang National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China State key laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory Huhhot 010051China

This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the south china Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 *** demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best *** reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature *** various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and *** is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after ***,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future ***,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP *** the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter *** contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 ***,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.

关键词： marine heatwaves south china Sea global warming future projections CMIP6

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Monitoring Sea Fog over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Bay Based on Deep Convolutional Neural Network

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期 223-229页

作者：黄彬高士博于润玲赵伟周冠博 National Meteorological Center key laboratory of south china Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Agronomy College Shenyang Agricultural University key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones China Meteorological Administration State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

In this paper, we utilized the deep convolutional neural network D-Link Net, a model for semantic segmentation,to analyze the Himawari-8 satellite data captured from 16 channels at a spatial resolution of 0.5 km, with a focus on the area over the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea(32°–42°N, 117°–127°E). The objective was to develop an algorithm for fusing and segmenting multi-channel images from geostationary meteorological satellites, specifically for monitoring sea fog in this region. Firstly, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm was adopted to evaluate the data from the 16 channels of the Himawari-8 satellite for sea fog detection, and we found that the top three channels in order of importance were channels 3,4, and 14, which were fused into false color daytime images, while channels 7, 13, and 15 were fused into false color nighttime images. Secondly, the simple linear iterative super-pixel clustering algorithm was used for the pixel-level segmentation of false color images, and based on super-pixel blocks, manual sea-fog annotation was performed to obtain fine-grained annotation labels. The deep convolutional neural network D-Link Net was built on the Res Net backbone and the dilated convolutional layers with direct connections were added in the central part to form a string-and-combine structure with five branches having different depths and receptive fields. Results show that the accuracy rate of fog area(proportion of detected real fog to detected fog) was 66.5%, the recognition rate of fog zone(proportion of detected real fog to real fog or cloud cover) was 51.9%, and the detection accuracy rate(proportion of samples detected correctly to total samples) was 93.2%.

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Residual alkali-evoked cross-linked polymer layer for anti-air-sensitivity LiNi_(0.89)Co_(0.06)Mn_(0.05)O_(2)cathode

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Journal of Energy Chemistry 2024年第5期92卷 450-458页

作者： Chao Zhao Xuebao Li Yun Zhao Jingjing He Yuanpeng Cao Wei Luo Ding Wang Jianguo Duan Xianshu Wang Baohua Li National and Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Lithium-ion Batteries and Materials Preparation Technology Key Laboratory of Advanced Battery Materials of Yunnan ProvinceFaculty of Metallurgical and Energy EngineeringKunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650093YunnanChina School of Materials Science and Engineering Central South UniversityChangsha 410083HunanChina Institute of Materials Research Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua UniversityShenzhen 518055Guangdong China City College Kunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650051YunnanChina

High-energy density lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)with layered high-nickel oxide cathodes(LiNi_(x)Co_(y)Mn_(1-x-y)O_(2),x≥0.8)show great promise in consumer electronics and vehicular ***,LiNi_(x)Co_(y)Mn_(1-x-y)O_(2)faces challenges related to capacity decay caused by residual alkalis owing to high sensitivity to *** address this issue,we propose a hazardous substances upcycling method that fundamentally mitigates alkali content and concurrently induces the emergence of an anti-air-sensitive layer on the cathode *** the neutralization of polyacrylic acid(PAA)with residual alkalis and then coupling it with 3-aminopropyl triethoxysilane(KH550),a stable and ion-conductive cross-linked polymer layer is in situ integrated into the LiNi_(0.89)Co_(0.06)Mn_(0.05)O_(2)(NCM)*** characterization and measurements demonstrate its *** NCM material exhibits impressive cycling performance,retaining 88.4%of its capacity after 200 cycles at 5 C and achieving an extraordinary specific capacity of 170.0 mA h g^(-1) at 10 ***,this layer on the NCM efficiently suppresses unfavorable phase transitions,severe electrolyte degradation,and CO_(2)gas evolution,while maintaining commendable resistance to air *** surface modification strategy shows widespread potential for creating air-stable LiNi_(x)Co_(y)Mn_(1-x-y)O_(2)cathodes,thereby advancing high-performance LIBs.

关键词： Lithium-ion batteries Nickel-rich layered cathode Residual alkalis Cross-linked polyme rmodification Airsensitivity

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