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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

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Record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged Temperature(CMST) Dataset

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 369-376页

作者： Zichen LI Qingxiang LI Tianyi CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disasters SUN Yat-Sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Research center for Ecology and environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering(Guangdong zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.

关键词： CMST2.0 global mean surface temperature record-breaking temperature El Ni?o

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Stability of water yield in watersheds

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 483-496页

作者： Yu YAN Zhiyong LIU Xiaohong CHEN Liyan HUANG center for Water Resources and environment School of Civil EngineeringSun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou510275China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai519082China

The hydrological system of a watershed is intricately influenced by both underlying characteristics and climate *** the variability in water yield is essential for effective water resources management and water security in the context of changing *** this study,we adopted the Budyko framework and leveraged simulations from the CMIP6 model to investigate the compensation effects of climate and underlying characteristics on watershed water *** on Taylor expansion and Budyko framework,we estimated the sensitivity of watershed water yield to climate and underlying characteristics(the first-and second-order partial derivatives).By combining external watershed characteristics(e.g.,water yield ratios and underlying characteristics)with internal sensitivity coefficients,this study further used vine copula and principal component analysis to quantify the stability of watershed water *** findings show:(1)Water-yield changes related to underlying characteristics could be offset by climate-related water-yield changes across all climate zones,maintaining the water yield ratio steady(i.e.,the compensation effects).(2)However,global watersheds will turn more sensitive to underlying characteristics and less sensitive to climate variation in the *** climate-and underlying-related sensitivities increase in watersheds with arid climates.(3)The stability of watershed water yield will gradually diminish in the *** 1901–1950to 2051–2100,the global stability of 280 watersheds drops from 0.054 to 0.021(i.e.,stability index identified by the joint probability).Particularly,the largest change in stability of water yield reaches-0.347±0.18 in arid *** semi-arid,semihumid,and humid regions,the changes are-0.039±0.010,-0.028±0.005,and-0.005±0.002,*** findings provide a reference for the future sustainable water resources development under climate change,highlighting the vulnerability of the water resources in ari

关键词： Hydrological system stability Compensation effects on water yield Sensitivities Budyko-Fu decomposition framework Global watersheds

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK Huijun WANG Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate ***,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still *** this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to *** found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after *** interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea *** the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake *** wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be *** southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the *** HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the *** northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly *** HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the *** the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is *** above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

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MoS_(2) nanoflowers and PEDOT:PSS nanocomposite enabling wearable dual-mode pressure sensors

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2024年第6期67卷 1737-1747页

作者： WANG FengMing YANG WeiJia MA Ke SHEN GengZhe SU DaoJian LI BaiJun WANG ShuangPeng QIN BoLong ZHANG Chi XIN Yue CAO XiaoBing HE Xin School of Applied Physics and Materials Wuyi UniversityJiangmen529020China Biomaterials R&D center Zhuhai Institute of Advanced TechnologyChinese Academy of SciencesZhuhai519003China joint Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education Institute of Applied Physics and Materials EngineeringUniversity of MacaoMacao999078China

A versatile sensing platform employing inorganic MoS_(2) nanoflowers and organic poly(3,4-ethylene dioxythiophene):poly(styrene sulfonate)(PEDOT:PSS)has been investigated to develop the resistive and capacitive force-sensitive *** microstructure of the sensing layer heightens the sensitivity and response time of the dual-mode pressure sensors by augmenting electron pathways and inner stress in response to mechanical ***,the capacitive and resistive sensors exhibit sensitivities of 0.37 and 0.12 kPa^(-1),respectively,while demonstrating a remarkable response time of approximately 100 ***,it is noteworthy that the PEDOT:PSS layer exhibits excellent adhesion to polydimethylsiloxane(PDMS)substrates,which contributes to the development of highly robust force-sensitive sensors capable of enduring more than 10000loading/unloading *** combination of MoS_(2)/PEDOT:PSS layers in these dual-mode sensors has shown promising results in detecting human joint movements and subtle physiological ***,the sensors have achieved a remarkable precision rate of 98%in identifying target *** outcomes underscore the significant potential of these sensors for integration into applications such as electronic skin and human-machine interaction.

关键词： MoS_(2)/PEDOT:PSS nanocomposite force-sensitive sensor multi-scaled microstructure physiological signals monitoring object grasping recognition

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Freshening of the Intermediate Waters in the Northern South China Sea over the Past Six Decades

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 42-50页

作者：陈栩洋王东晓舒业强成里京范双双 School of Marine Sciences Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301 China International center for climate and environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

The properties of salinity in the South China Sea(SCS),a significant marginal sea connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans,are greatly influenced by the transport of fresh water flux between the two ***,the long-term changes in the intermediate water in the SCS have not been thoroughly studied due to limited data,particularly in relation to its thermodynamic *** study utilized reanalysis data products to identify a 60-year trend of freshening in the intermediate waters of the northern South China Sea(NSCS),accompanied by an expansion of low-salinity *** study also constructed salinity budget terms,including advection and entrainment processes,and conducted an analysis of the salinity budget to understand the impacts of external and internal dynamic processes on the freshening trend of the intermediate water in the *** analysis revealed that the freshening in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the intensification of intrusion through the Luzon Strait at intermediate levels are the primary drivers of the salinity changes in the ***,a weakened trend in the intensity of vertical entrainment also contributes to the freshening in the *** study offers new insights into the understanding of regional deep sea changes in response to variations in both thermodynamics and oceanic dynamic processes.

关键词： freshening South China Sea salinity of the intermediate water salinity budget analysis Luzon Strait transport

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On the longitudinal shifts of the Agulhas retroflection point

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第5期43卷 16-29页

作者： Weiwei Zhang Xiaoyi Yang Wei Zhuang Xiaohai Yan State Key Laboratory of Marine environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361002China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China center for Remote Sensing College of EarthOcean and EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewarkDE 19716USA joint center for Remote Sensing University of Delaware-Xiamen UniversityNewarkDE 19716USA and Xiamen 361002China

The Agulhas system is the strongest western boundary current system in the Southern Hemisphere and plays an important role in modulating the Indian-to-Atlantic Ocean water exchange by the Agulhas *** is difficult to measure in situ transport of the Agulhas leakage as well as the Agulhas retroflection position due to their intermittent *** this study,an innovative kinematic algorithm was designed and applied to the gridded altimeter observational data,to ascertain the longitudinal position of Agulhas retroflection,the stability of Agulhas jet stream,as well as its *** results show that the east-west shift of retroflection is related neither to the strength of Agulhas current nor to its *** analysis uncovers the connection between the westward extension of Agulhas jet stream and an anomalous cyclonic circulation at its northern side,which is likely attributed to the local wind stress curl *** confirm the effect of local wind forcing on the east-west shift of retroflection,numerical sensitivity experiments were *** results show that the local wind stress can induce a similar longitudinal shift of the retroflection as altimetry *** statistical and case study indicates that whether an Agulhas ring can continuously migrate westward to the Atlantic Ocean or re-merge into the main flow depends on the retroflection ***,the westward retroflection may contribute to a stronger Agulhas leakage than the eastward retroflection.

关键词： Agulhas system Agulhas leakage retroflection position local wind stress curl

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Imprints of ultralight axions on the gravitational wave and pulsar timing measurement

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2024年第1期67卷 23-29页

作者： Ning Xie Fa Peng Huang MOE Key Laboratory of TianQin Mission TianQin Research Center for Gravitational Physics&School of Physics and AstronomyFrontiers Science Center for TianQinGravitational Wave Research Center of CNSASun Yat-sen University(Zhuhai Campus)Zhuhai 519082China

The axion or axion-like particle motivated from a natural solution of strong CP problem or string theory is a promising dark matter *** study the new observational effects of ultralight axion-like particles by the space-borne gravitational wave detector and the radio *** the neutron star-black hole binary as an example,we demonstrate that the gravitational waveform could be obviously modified by the slow depletion of the axion cloud around the black hole formed through the superradiance *** compare these new effects on the binary with the well-studied effects from dynamical friction with dark matter and dipole radiation in model-independent ***,we discuss the constraints from LIGO/Virgo and study the detectability of the ultralight axion particles at LISA and TianQin.

关键词： gravitational wave axion dark matter

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