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Assessing the Variability of Extreme Weather Events and Its Influence on Marine Accidents along the Northern Coast of Tanzania

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American Journal of Climate Change 2024年第3期13卷 499-521页

作者： Faki A. Ali Kombo Hamad Kai Sara Abdalla Khamis zanzibar office Tanzania Meteorlogical Authority (TMA) Zanzibar Tanzania Department of Natural Science State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) Zanzibar Tanzania

The marine accidents are among the main components of the zanzibar Disaster Management Policy (2011) and the zanzibar Blue Economy Policy (2020). These policies aimed to institute legal frame works and procedures for reducing both the frequency of marine accidents and their associated fatalities. These fatalities include deaths, permanent disabilities and loss of properties which may result into increased poverty levels as per the sustainable development goal one (SDG1) which stipulates on ending the poverty in all its forms everywhere. Thus, in the way to support these Government efforts, the influence of climate and weather on marine accidents along zanzibar and Pemba Channels was investigated. The study used the 10 years (2013-2022) records of daily rainfall and hourly wind speed acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) (for the observation stations of zanzibar, Pemba, Dares Salaam and Tanga), and the significant wave heights data, which was freely downloaded from Globally Forecasting System (GFS-World model of 13 km resolution). The marine accident records were collected from TASAC and zanzibar Maritime Authority (ZMA), and the anecdotal information was collected from heads of quay and boat captains in different areas of zanzibar. The Mann Kendal test, was used to determine the slopes and trends direction of used weather parameters, while the Pearson correlations analysis and t-tests were used to understand the significance of the underlying relationship between the weather and marine accidents. The paired t-test was used to evaluate the extent to which weather parameters affect the marine accidents. Results revealed that the variability of extreme weather events (rainfall, ocean waves and wind speed) was seen to be among the key factors for most of the recorded marine accidents. For instance, in Pemba high rainfall showed an increasing trend of extreme rainfall events, while zanzibar has shown a decreasing trend of these events. As for extreme wind

关键词： Marine Accidents Bad Weather Events Extreme Wind Speed Extreme Rainfall Correlation

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The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Aircraft Take-off and Landing Performance;a Case Study of the Abeid Amani Karume International Airport-zanzibar

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Journal of Transportation Technologies 2022年第3期12卷 453-474页

作者： Omar Mohamed Haji Kombo Hamad Kai Sara Abdalla Khamis Said Suleiman Bakar Hassan Rashid Ali Gharib Hamza Mohamed Fatma Said Seif Tanzania Civil Aviation Authority zanzibar office Kisauni Zanzibar Tanzania Meteorological Authority zanzibar office Kisauni Zanzibar State University of zanzibar Tunguu Zanzibar

Climate change (CC) and variability have been world widely reported to pose number of risks in aviation industry including accidents, astray, and other operational difficulties. The impact of weather on landing and take-off performances has been several times experienced at Abeid Amani Karume International Airport (AAKIA);however, the influence of climate change and variability to the aircraft performance needs to be assessed. Thus, this study investigated the influence of climate change and variability on aircrafts take-off and landing performances. Specifically, the study investigated;i) the influence of climate change on Take-off Distance Required (TODR) and Maximum Take-off Mass (MTOM) for different types of aircraft;ii) the influence of climate variability to the aircraft landing performance on light, medium and heavy aircraft and lastly, iii) the study investigated the seasonal and annual variability on aircraft landing performance due to climate variability. The datasets used in this study include the eight years (2014-2021), aircraft operational records (diversion and missed approach events) and Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METAR) records which were utilized as the indicators for landing performance, the long-term (1990-2020) annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) which was used to determine the TODR and MTOM. Statistical tools including mean, percentage changes, correlations, regression, and the chi-square test were used for analysis and hypotheses testing. The results revealed that light and medium aircraft categories were significantly most affected on diversion events as compared to the heavy categories;however, for the missed approach events the impact was vice versa. Moreover, the seasonal and annual variability on diversion and missed approach events were significantly different (at p ≤ 0.001). As for the take-off performance, results show that the TODR and MTOM were significantly increasing and decreasing (at p ≤ 0.001), based on increasing air temp

关键词： Aircraft Take off/Landing Performance Missed Approach Diversion Take off Distance Required Maximum Take-off Mass Diversion Missed Approach

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The Influence of Climate Variability on the Watermelon Production in zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2023年第1期13卷 44-61页

作者： Asya Omar Hamad Kombo Hamad Kai Agnes Kijazi Sara Abdalla Khamis Abdalla Hassan Abdalla Hassan Khatib Ame Masoud Makame Faki Faki Ali Ali Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) zanzibar office Zanzibar Tanzania TMA Dar es Salaam Office Dar es Salaam Tanzania The State University of zanzibar (SUZA) Zanzibar Tanzania

Climate change and variability, has embarked societies in zanzibar to rely on horticulture (i.e. watermelon production) as an adaptive measure due to an unpromising situation of commonly used agricultural yields. Currently, there is either no or scant information that describes the influence of climate changes and variability to watermelon production in zanzibar. Thus, this study aimed to determine the influence of climate variability on the quantity of watermelon production in zanzibar. The study used both primary and secondary datasets, which include the anecdotal information collected from interviewers’ responses from four districts of Unguja and Pemba, and climate parameters (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) at zanzibar offices. Pearson correlation was used for analyzing the association between watermelon production and climate parameters, while paired t-test was applied to show the significance of the mean differences of watermelon and climate parameters for two periods of 2014-2017 and 2018-2021, respectively. Percentage changes were used to feature the extent to which the two investigated parameters affect each other. The anecdotal responses were sorted, calculated in monthly and seasonal averages, plotted and then analyzed. Results have shown a strong correlation (r = 0.8 at p ≤ 0.02, and r = 0.7) between watermelon production, Tmax and rainfall during OND, especially in Unguja, as well as Tmin during JJA (i.e. r = - 0.8 at p ≤ 0.02) in Pemba. Besides, results have shown the existence of significant differences between the means of watermelon production and climate parameter for the two stated periods, indicating that the climate parameters highly affects the watermelon production by either enhancing or declining the yields by 69% - 162% and 17% - 77%, respectively. Moreover, results have shown that respondents were aware that excess temperature intensity during dry periods can le

关键词： Watermelon March to May (MAM) and October to November (OND) Seasonal Rainfall Maximum and Minimum Temperature Anecdotal Information

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Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Fantala to Tanzania Coastal Line: Case Study of zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第2期11卷 245-266页

作者： Kombo Hamad Kai Mohammed Khamis Ngwali Masoud Makame Faki Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Zanzibar Office Kisauni Zanzibar Tanzania

The study investigated the impacts of tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala (11th to 27th April, 2016) to the coastal areas of Tanzania, zanzibar in particular. Daily reanalysis data consisting of wind speed, sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomaly, and relative humidity from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) were used to analyze the variation in strength of Fantala as it was approaching the Tanzania coastal line. In addition observed rainfall from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) at zanzibar office, Global Forecasting System (GFS) rainfall estimates and satellite images were used to visualize the impacts of tropical cyclone Fantala to zanzibar. The results revealed that, TC Fantala was associated with deepening/decreasing in SLP (from 1012 - 1010 mb) around the north-western Madagascar and coastal Tanzania, whereas the mean SSTs was greater than 28°C and an SSTs anomaly ranged from 0 to 2.3°C. The vertical wind shear which ridged at Mozambican Channel and over north-eastern Madagascar was high enough (12 - 15 ms-1) to support the intensifying of Fantala. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions of Fantala influenced heavy rainfall of greater than 170 mm over most stations in zanzibar. Moreover, Fantala disrupted the temporal variability of 2016 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall. Besides, more than 420 people were homeless, at least 3330 houses were destroyed, and about 2 people died. As for mainland Tanzania Fantala resulted in a death of 12 people in Kilimanjaro and Arusha, more than 315 houses were washed away by flooding leading to 13,933 people being homeless. Conclusively the study calls for an extensive research work based on examining and forecasting the TCs rainfall impacts and their contribution during the two rainfall seasons of OND and MA

关键词： Tropical Cyclone Fantala Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Dynamics and Thermodynamics Forecasting Systems and MAM Seasonal Rainfall Vorticity Wind Shear Vertical Profile

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The Influence of Weather and Climate Variability on Groundwater Quality in zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第4期12卷 613-634页

作者： Leluu Ramadhan Mohammed Kombo Hamad Kai Agnes Laurence Kijazi Said Suleiman Bakar Sara Abdalla Khamis Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Kisauni Zanzibar State University of zanzibar Tunguu Campus Zanzibar

Climate change and variability have been inducing a broad spectrum of impacts on the environment and natural resources including groundwater resources. The study aimed at assessing the influence of weather, climate variability, and changes on the quality of groundwater resources in zanzibar. The study used the climate datasets including rainfall (RF), Maximum and Minimum Temperature (Tmax and Tmin), the records acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) zanzibar office for 30 (1989-2019) and 10 (2010-2019) years periods. Also, the zanzibar Water Authority (ZAWA) monthly records of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Electrical Conductivity (EC), and Ground Water Temperature (GWT) were used. Interpolation techniques were used for controlling outliers and missing datasets. Indeed, correlation, trend, and time series analyses were used to show the relationship between climate and water quality parameters. However, simple statistical analyses including mean, percentage changes, and contributions to the annual and seasonal mean were calculated. Moreover, t and paired t-tests were used to show the significant changes in the mean of the variables for two defined periods of 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 at p ≤ 0.05. Results revealed that seasonal variability of groundwater quality from March to May (MAM) has shown a significant change in trends ranging from 0.1 to 2.8 mm/L/yr, 0.1 to 2.8 μS/cm/yr, and 0.1 to 2.0℃/yr for TDS, EC, and GWT, respectively. The changes in climate parameters were 0.1 to 2.4 mm/yr, 0.2 to 1.3℃/yr and 0.1 to 2.5℃/yr in RF, Tmax, and Tmin, respectively. From October to December (OND) changes in groundwater parameters ranged from 0.2 to 2.5 mm/L/yr 0.1 to 2.9 μS/cm/yr, and 0.1 to 2.1℃/yr for TDS, EC, and GWT, whereas RF, Tmax, and Tmin changed from 0.3 to 1.8 mm/yr, 0.2 to 1.9℃/yr and 0.2 to 2.0℃/yr, respectively. Moreover, the study has shown strong c

关键词： Quality of Groundwater Parameters Climate Variability Mean Changes of Climate and Water Quality Parameters

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Assessment of the Off-season Rainfall of January to February 2020 and Its Socio Economic Implications in Tanzania: A Case Study of the Northern Coast of Tanzania

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2021年第2期4卷 51-69页

作者： Kombo Hamad Kai Sarah E Osima Agnes Laurence Kijazi Mohammed Khamis Ngwali Asya Omar Hamad Tanzania Meteorological Authority(TMA) Zanzibar P.O.Box 340 ZanzibarTanzania TMA Dar es Salaam office P.O.Box 3056 Ubungo PlazaTanzania

This article examines the off season rainfall in northern coast Tanzania(NCT)including zanzibar which occurred in January and February 2020(JF).Like the JF rainfalls of 2001,2004,2010,2016 and 2018,the JF(2020)rainfall was more unique in damages including loss of lives,properties and *** study used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to examine the cause of uniqueness of JF rainfall in 2001,2004,2010,2016,2018 and 2020 over NCT and *** datasets include monthly mean u,v wind at 850,700,500,and 200 mb;SSTs,mean sea level pressure(MSLP)anomalies,Dipole Mode Index(DMI),and monthly rainfall from NCT and zanzibar *** were processed and calculated into long term,seasonal,and monthly averages,indeed,Precipitation Index(PI)was *** analysis between the rainfall(December to January),SST,DMI and 850 mb wind vectors;and long-term percentage contribution of investigated parameters was *** revealed significant positive and negative correlations between JF rainfall,SSTs and ***,JFs of 2004 and 2016 had higher rainfalls of 443 mm with percentage contribution of up to 406%,while January and February,2020 had the highest of 269.1 and 101.1mm in zanzibar and 295 and 146.1 mm over and NCT areas,with highest January long-term rainfall contribution of 356%in zanzibar and 526%over *** DJF(2019/20)had the highest rainfall record of 649.5 mm in zanzibar contributing up to 286%,while JF 2000 rainfall had a good spatial and temporal distribution over most NCT ***,2020 rainfall had impacts of more than 20 people died in Lindi and several infrastructures including Kiyegeya Bridge in Morogoro were ***,more research works on understanding the dynamics of wet and dry JF seasons should be conducted.

关键词： Indian ocean dipole Dipole mode index(DMI) Sea surface temperatures(SSTs) Rainfall Relative humidity Correlations

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Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第12期11卷 182-208页

作者： Daudi Mikidadi Ndabagenga Jinhua Yu Justus Renatus Mbawala Charles Yusuph Ntigwaza Ali Said Juma School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Forecasting Office Kilimanjaro International Airport (KIA) Kilimanjaro Tanzania National Meteorological Training Centre (NMTC) Kigoma Tanzania Ministry of Education zanzibar (MOEZ) Zanzibar Tanzania

Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been affected by extreme precipitation incidences both socially and economically. Determining the trend and variability features of extreme precipitation in the country is crucial. This study used data from 28 meteorological stations for 1981-2020 period to give an annual and seasonal analysis of the patterns of 10 ETCCDI’s extreme precipitation indices over the regions. At annual scale, the results showed that increasing trends had high frequency percentage than the decreasing ones, collecting about 76% in total. The decreasing trend was approximately 24%, and most of the stations with increasing percentage in trend are concentrated in Northern coast, Central, West, North-eastern highlands and Lake Victoria Basin. Most of the stations depicted negative trend are concentrated over Southern region. This highlights that extreme precipitation events have increased over the country for the period 1981-2020. At seasonal scale, during October to December (OND);the patterns of extreme precipitation climatic indices except R99p, showed positive significant increasing trend over Lake Victoria Basin and some Western parts of the country. In general, spatial patterns indicate decrease of precipitation over most parts of the country during OND. The seasonal average time series depicted non-significant positive trend during March to April (MAM) season, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) which showed non-significant decreasing trend. Over the highest mountain in Africa, Kilimanjaro;the study has revealed significant decrease in Annual total-wet Precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of heavy (very heavy) days of precipitation R10 mm (R20 mm) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) during MAM season. While the maximum one-day precipitation amount (RX1 day) was observed to decrease significantly over the Mountain during OND season. The result is very important in risk assessment and preparedness perspective in planning climate change mitigat

关键词： Extreme Precipitation Climatic Indices Tanzania Mann-Kendall ETCCDI Trend

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