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Influences of Earth Incidence Angle on FY-3/MWRI SST Retrieval and Evaluation of Reprocessed SST

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 230-240页

作者： ZHANG Miao CHEN Lin XU Na CAO Guang-zhen Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Innovation Center for FengYun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 China

Sea surface temperature(SST)is a crucial physical parameter in meteorology and *** study demonstrates that the influence of earth incidence angle(EIA)on the SST retrieved from the microwave radiation imager(MWRI)onboard FengYun-3(FY-3)meteorological satellites should not be *** with algorithms that do not consider the influence of EIA in the regression,those that integrate the EIA into the regression can enhance the accuracy of SST ***,based on the recalibrated Level 1B data from the FY-3/MWRI,a long-term SST dataset was reprocessed by employing the algorithm that integrates the EIA into the *** reprocessed SST data,including FY-3B/MWRI SST during 2010-2019,FY-3C/MWRI SST during 2013-2019,and FY-3D/MWRI SST during 2018-2020,were compared with the in-situ SST and the SST dataset from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis(OSTIA).The results show that the FY-3/MWRI SST data were consistent with both the in-situ SST and the OSTIA SST *** with the Copernicus Climate Change Service V2.0 SST,the absolute deviation of the reprocessed SST,with a quality flag of 50,was less than 1.5℃.The root mean square errors of the FY-3/MWRI orbital,daily,and monthly SSTs,with a quality flag of 50,were approximately 0.82℃,0.69℃,and 0.37℃,*** primary discrepancies between the FY-3/MWRI SST and the OSTIA SST were found mainly in the regions of the western boundary current and the Antarctic Circumpolar ***,this reprocessed SST product is recommended for El Niño and La Niña events monitoring.

关键词： FengYun-3 satellites sea surface temperature microwave radiation imager earth incidence angle reprocessing

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China meteorological administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China meteorological administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

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A New Algorithm of Rain Type Classification for GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar in Summer Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第11期41卷 2093-2111页

作者： Yunfei FU Liu YANG Zhenhao WU Peng ZHANG Songyan GU Lin CHEN Sun NAN School of Earth and Space Sciences CMA-USTC Laboratory of Fengyun Remote SensingUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205China National Satellite meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

In this study, a new rain type classification algorithm for the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar(DPR) suitable over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) was proposed by analyzing Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) DPR Level-2 data in summer from 2014 to 2020. It was found that the DPR rain type classification algorithm(simply called DPR algorithm) has mis-identification problems in two aspects in summer TP. In the new algorithm of rain type classification in summer TP,four rain types are classified by using new thresholds, such as the maximum reflectivity factor, the difference between the maximum reflectivity factor and the background maximum reflectivity factor, and the echo top height. In the threshold of the maximum reflectivity factors, 30 d BZ and 18 d BZ are both thresholds to separate strong convective precipitation, weak convective precipitation and weak precipitation. The results illustrate obvious differences of radar reflectivity factor and vertical velocity among the three rain types in summer TP, such as the reflectivity factor of most strong convective precipitation distributes from 15 d BZ to near 35 d BZ from 4 km to 13 km, and increases almost linearly with the decrease in height. For most weak convective precipitation, the reflectivity factor distributes from 15 d BZ to 28 d BZ with the height from 4 km to 9 km. For weak precipitation, the reflectivity factor mainly distributes in range of 15–25 d BZ with height within 4–10 km. It is also shows that weak precipitation is the dominant rain type in summer TP, accounting for 40%–80%,followed by weak convective precipitation(25%–40%), and strong convective precipitation has the least proportion(less than 30%).

关键词： satellite precipitation radar rain type classification method Tibetan Plateau strong convective precipitation

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Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China meteorological administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 767-776页

作者： Guo DENG Xueshun SHEN Jun DU Jiandong GONG Hua TONG Liantang DENG Zhifang XU Jing CHEN Jian SUN Yong WANG Jiangkai HU Jianjie WANG Mingxuan CHEN Huiling YUAN Yutao ZHANG Hongqi LI Yuanzhe WANG Li GAO Li SHENG Da LI Li LI Hao WANG Ying ZHAO Yinglin LI Zhili LIU Wenhua GUO China meteorological administration Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA College ParkMD 20740USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Tsinghua University Beijing 100084China

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and *** made providing meteorological services for this event particularly *** China meteorological administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical *** key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was *** of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in *** meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and *** included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 *** 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting *** accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the *** program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather

关键词： Beijing Winter Olympic Games CMA national forecasting system data assimilation ensemble forecast bias correction and downscaling machine learning-based fusion methods

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Characteristics of Lightning Activity in Southeast China and its Relation to the Atmospheric Background

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 76-88页

作者：支树林朱杰刘岩毛梦妮 Jiangxi meteorological Observatory Nanchang 330096 China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 China Innovation Center for FengYun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China meteorological administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041 China Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CICFEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210041 China Jiujiang Observatory JiujiangJiangxi 332000 China

Based on the lightning observation data from the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)Lightning Mapping Imager(FY-4A/LMI)and the Lightning Imaging Sensor(LIS)on the International Space Station(ISS),we extract the“event”type data as the lightning detection *** observations are then compared with the cloud-to-ground(CG)lightning observation data from the China meteorological *** study focuses on the characteristics of lightning activity in Southeast China,primarily in Jiangxi Province and its adjacent areas,from April to September,2017–*** addition,with the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data,we further delved into the potential factors influencing the distribution and variations in lightning activity and their primary related *** findings indicate that the lightning frequency and density of the FY-4A/LMI,ISS-LIS and CG data are higher in southern and central Jiangxi,central Fujian Province,and western and central Guangdong Province,while they tend to be lower in eastern Hunan *** general,the high-value areas of lightning density for the FY-4A/LMI are located in inland mountainous *** lower the latitude is,the higher the CG lightning density ***-value areas of the CG lightning density are more likely to be located in eastern Fujian and southeastern Zhejiang ***,the high-value areas of lightning density for the ISS-LIS are more dispersed,with a scattered distribution in inland mountainous areas and along the coast of eastern ***,the mountainous terrain is closely related to the high-value areas of the lightning *** locations of the high-value areas of the lightning density for the FY-4A/LMI correspond well with those for the CG observations,and the seasonal variations are also *** contrast,the distribution of the high-value areas of the lightning density for the ISS-LIS is more *** positions of the peak frequency of the FY-4A/LMI lightnin

关键词： lightning satellite and ground detections atmospheric background Southeast China

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The weakening effect of urbanization on tropical cyclone surface winds:An observational study for Shanghai

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 15-23页

作者： Lechuan Zhang Hui Yu Xiangyu Ao Shengming Tang Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences BeijingChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina

The observation-reanalysis difference method(OMR)and wind proﬁleﬁtting method were used to analyze the inﬂuence urbanization has on the near-surface wind speed in Shanghai during tropical cyclone *** data used include daily wind speed data from the Shanghai meteorological Observatory Station collected from 1991 to 2020,hourly wind speed data from 100 m high wind towers from 2017 to 2019,and reanalysis data that covered the same *** results indicated that during tropical cyclone occurrence,the wind speed of the OMR in the central urban region was signiﬁcantly lower than that in the suburban area,and the OMR declined more obviously over the year,down to-8 m/s in *** leads to the increase of average wind weakening rate to be higher than the maximum wind weakening rate,causing the maximum weakening rate of the central urban region to the average wind over 80%,while maximum wind speed was less than 80%.The weakening rate of both the average and maximum wind speeds during tropical cyclone impacts is greater than the rate that the annual average wind speed was reduced.A logarithmic variation was visible in the wind proﬁle of the island station during tropical cyclone occurrence,with an average friction velocity U*of 0.9389 m/s and an average rough length Z0 of 0.4915 *** wind speed during tropical cyclone events was higher than the three-year average wind speed within each *** suburban stations show a linear variation,and every hundred meters of height results in an increase of 5–6 m/s in the wind speed change *** 100 m of altitude,the wind speed in the suburban region is reduced by approximately 40%.

关键词： Urbanization Tropical cyclone Shanghai Wind speed

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Evaluation and Projection of Extreme High Temperature Indices in Southwestern China Using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 88-107页

作者： Fen ZHANG Linxiao WEI Yonghua LI Hongyu TANG Tianyu ZHANG Baogang YANG China meteorological administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resource to Economy Chongqing Climate CentreChongqing 401147

Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 11 optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.

关键词： NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 extreme high temperature(EHT) southwestern China evaluation projection

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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China meteorological administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Nina events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Sorely reducing emissions of non-methane short-lived climate forcers will worsen compound flood-heatwave extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 737-750页

作者： Ying-Fang LI Zhi-Li WANG Ya-Dong LEI Xiao-Chao YU Lin LIU Hui-Zheng CHE Xiao-Ye ZHANG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China meteorological administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190China

Non-methane short-lived climate forcer(SLCF)or near-term climate forcer(NTCF)emissions,as a significant driver of climate change,can be reduced to improve air *** reductions may contribute to additional warming of the climate system in the short term,thereby strongly affecting the likelihood of climate ***,there has been no quantitative assessment of the impact of non-methane SLCF mitigation on compound flood-heatwave extremes(CFHEs).This study quantitatively investigates the changes in future(2031-2050 versus 1995-2014)CFHEs and the resulting population exposure in the Northern Hemisphere(NH)due to non-methane SLCF *** used multi-model ensemble simulations under two future scenarios from the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project(AerChemMIP)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The two future scenarios share the same greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions but have weak(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)3-7.0)versus strong(SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF)levels of air quality control *** results show that future non-methane SLCF reductions during 2031-2050 results in about a 7.3%±2.3%increase in grid exposure to CFHEs in the NH relative to the period *** frequency,intensity,and duration of CFHEs increase by varying *** the period 2031-2050,the frequency of CFHEs across the NH increases by 2.9±0.9 events per decade due to non-methane SLCF *** increases in CFHE frequency are more pronounced in East Asia,South Asia,Siberia,and northern and eastern North *** East and South Asia,the in-tensities of both heatwaves and floods corresponding to CFHEs increase markedly,where heatwave magnitude(HWM)increases by 0.3±0.2 K in East Asia and weighted average precipitation(WAP)increases by 18.3%±15.3%and 12.0%±4.5%in East Asia and South Asia,*** other regions,rising temperatures dominate the increase in *** regard to the duration of CFHEs,future reductions in non-methane SLC

关键词： Non-methane SLCFs CHFEs Cleaner air Population exposure

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An Initial Perturbation Method for the Multiscale Singular Vector in Global Ensemble Prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 545-563页

作者： Xin LIU Jing CHEN Yongzhu LIU Zhenhua HUO Zhizhen XU Fajing CHEN Jing WANG Yanan MA Yumeng HAN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China meteorological administration Beijing 100081China Tianjin meteorological Observatory Tianjin 300074China China meteorological administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory Hebei 071799China

Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China meteorological administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.

关键词： multiscale uncertainty singular vector initial perturbation global ensemble prediction system

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