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Numerical Simulation and Evaluation of a New hydrological Model Coupled with GRAPES

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2012年第5期26卷 653-663页

作者：郑子彦张万昌徐精文赵琳娜陈静严中伟 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Resources and Environment Sichuan Agricultural University National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration

hydrological processes exert enormous influences on the land surface water and energy balance, and have a close relationship with human society. We have developed a new hydrological runoff parameteriza- tion called XXT to improve the performance of a coupled land surface-atmosphere modeling system. The XXT parameterization, which is based upon the Xinanjiang hydrological model and TOPMODEL, includes an optimized function of runoff calculation with a new soil moisture storage capacity distribution curve （SMSCC）. We then couple XXT with the Global/RegionM Assimilation Prediction System （GRAPES） and compare it to GRAPES coupled with a simple water balance model （SWB）. For the model evaluation and comparison, we perform 72-h online simulations using GRAPES-XXT and GRAPES-SWB during two torrential events in August 2007 and July 2008, respectively. The results show that GRAPES can reproduce the rainfall distribution and intensity fairly well in both cases. Differences in the representation of feedback processes between surface hydrology and the atmosphere result in differences in the distributions and amounts of precipitation simulated by GRAPES-XXT and GRAPES-SWB. The runoff simulations are greatly improved by the use of XXT in place of SWB, particularly with respect to the distribution and amount of runoff. The average runoff depth is nearly doubled in the rainbelt area, and unreasonable runoff distributions simulated by GRAPES-SWB are made more realistic by the introduction of XXT. Differences in surface soil moisture between GRAPES-XXT and GRAPES-SWB show that the XXT model changes infiltration and increases surface runoff. We also evaluate river flood discharge in the Yishu River basin. The peak values of flood discharge calculated from the output of GRAPES-XXT agree more closely with observations than those calculated from the output of GRAPES-SWB.

关键词： coupled model GRAPES XXT

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Contributions of Local and Remote Atmospheric Moisture Fluxes to East China Precipitation Estimated from CRA-40 Reanalysis

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Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 32-45页

作者： Dan ZHAO Lixia ZHANG Tianjun ZHOU Jingwei LIU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101 National meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

China meteorological administration(CMA) recently released its 40-yr(1979–2018) global Chinese reanalysis(CRA-40) dataset. To assess performance of the CRA-40 data in quantifying the regional water cycle, contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to precipitation in East China derived from CRA-40 are compared with those derived from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA-5). Observed precipitation and evaporation data are also used for validation. As for mean precipitation, CRA-40 matches the observation better in winter and spring than in summer, with a larger wet bias(1.41 mm day^(-1)) in summer than that in ERA-5(0.97 mm day^(-1)), particularly over South China. The conservation of atmospheric water vapor over East China measured by CRA-40 is comparable to that of ERA-5. Both reanalyses show a dominant role of the remote moisture transport in the East China *** comparison, the annual precipitation induced by the moisture influx from the west of the study domain in CRA-40 is 80 mm less than that in ERA-5. The recycling ratio of annual mean precipitation in CRA-40 is approximately21.1%, slightly larger than that in ERA-5(20.1%). The maximum difference of each hydrological component between the two datasets appears in the summer horizontal moisture influx(3.57 ×10^(7) kg s^(-1);ERA-5 is larger) and winter runoff(1.84 ×10^(7) kg s^(-1);CRA-40 is larger). CRA-40 shows better performance than ERA-5 in capturing the interannual variability of precipitation over East China, as evinced by a higher correlation coefficient with the observation(0.77 versus 0.33). The trend of summer precipitation since 2011 is better reproduced in CRA-40. Both reanalyses show prominent contribution of the southern moisture influx to the interannual variation of precipitation. This study demonstrates the reliability of CRA-40 in representing the hydrological cycle over East China and provides a useful reference for future application of CRA-40 in water cycle studi

关键词： 40-yr global Chinese reanalysis(CRA-40) precipitation recycling ratio water vapor transport

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OPERATIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST VERIFICATION PRACTICE IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC REGION

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2012年第3期1卷 361-372页

作者： HUI YU SAI TICK CHAN BARBARA BROWN MASASHI KUNITSUGU EDWARD FUKADA SANGWOOK PARK WOOJEONG LEE YINGLONG XU PEOU PHALLA BOUNTEUMSYSOUPHANTHAVONG SAU WA CHANG CHE GAYAH ISMAIL RENITO BPACIENTE PATRICIA EE CHAMNONG KAEOCHADA HOA VO VAN Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique Shanghai Typhoon InstituteChina MeteorologicalAdministrationShanghaiChina Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderU.S.A. Japan meteorological Agency TokyoJapan Joint Typhoon Warning Center HawaiiU.S.A. National Typhoon Centre Korea Meteorological AdministrationJejuR.O.K. National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina Department of Meteorology Phnom PenhCambodia Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Lao PDR VientianeLao P.D.R. Macao meteorological and Geophysical Bureau MacaoChina Malaysian meteorological Department SelangorMalaysia Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical ServicesQuezon CityPhilippines meteorological Service Singapore Singapore Thai meteorological Department BangkokThailand National Hydro-meteorological Services of vietnam HanoiVietnam

This paper summarizes results of a survey of the operational status of tropical cyclone(TC) forecast verifi-cation in the western North Pacific region, covering the Members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, and JTWC. Results of the survey indicate that significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the region, either individually or through international cooperation. A variety of TC forecast verification products are available to the forecasters in either real time or in post-season through multiple means, with the main focus on the deterministic track and intensity forecasts. Only a few verification products are available for probabilistic forecasts. Verification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region. It would be helpful in the future to focus more attention toward these aspects and incorporate methods that will provide a greater depth of information regarding the TC forecast performance.

关键词： Tropical cyclone forecast verifi cation

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Improving the simulation of terrestrial water storage anomalies over China using a Bayesian model averaging ensemble approach

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第4期11卷 322-329页

作者： LIU Jian-Guo JIA Bing-Hao XIE Zheng-Hui SHI Chun-Xiang School of Mathematics and Computational Science and Key Laboratory of Intelligent Control Technology for Wuling-Mountain Ecological Agriculture in Hunan Province Huaihua University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration

The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological ***,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate *** this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and *** using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–*** the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–*** correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member *** captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of *** good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.

关键词： Terrestrial water storage anomalies multi-forcing and multi-model ensemble simulation Bayesian model averaging spatiotemporal variation uncertainty

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The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on the Summer hydrological Cycle in the Haihe River Basin of China

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第4期25卷 517-526页

作者： OU Tinghai LIU Yanxiang CHEN Deliang David RAYNER ZHANG Qiang GAO Ge XIANG Weiguo School of Geology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg GSteborg 40530 Sweden National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Science ~ Technology Chengdu 610225 China

In this study, we focus on changes in three important components of the hydrological-cycle in the Haihe River basin （HRB） during 1957-2005： precipitation （Prep）, actual evaportranspiration （ETa）, and pan evaporation （PE）-a measure of potential evaporation. The changes in these components have been evaluated in relation to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon. Summer Prep for the whole basin has decreased significantly during 1957-2005. Recent weakening of the convergence of the integrated water vapor flux, in combination with a change from cyclonic-like large-scale circulation conditions to anti-cyclonic-like conditions, led to the decrease in the summer Prep in the HRB. ETa is positively correlated with Prep on the interannual timescale. On longer timescales, however, ETa is less dependent on Prep or the large-scale circulation. We found negative trends in ETa when the ERA40 reanalysis data were used, but positive trends in ETa when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used. PE declined during the period 1957-2001. The declining of PE could be explained by a combination of declining solar radiation and declining surface wind. However, the declining solar radiation may itself be related to the weakening winds, due to weaker dispersion of pollution. If so, the downward trend of PE may be mainly caused by weakening winds.

关键词： hydrological cycle runoff Lamb-Jenkinson classification circulation Haihe River basin (HRB)

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Land Response to Atmosphere at Different Resolutions in the Common Land Model over East Asia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第3期33卷 391-408页

作者： Daeun KIM Yoon-Jin LIM Minseok KANG Minha CHO Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Hanyang University222 Wangsimni-roSeongdong-guSeoul 04763Republic of Korea Applied meteorological Research Division National Institute of Meteorological ResearchKorean Meteorological Administration61 Yeouidaebang-ro16-gilDongjak-guSeoul 63568Republic of Korea National Center for AgroMeteorology Bid.#36(RM.#109)Seoul National University1 Gwanak-roGwanak-guSeoul 08826Republic of Korea Department of Water Resources Graduate School of Water ResourcesSungkyunkwan University2066 Seobu-roJangan-guSuwonGyeonggi-do 16419Republic of Korea

Towards a better understanding of hydrological interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, land surface mod- els are routinely used to simulate hydro-meteorological fluxes. However, there is a lack of observations available for model forcing, to estimate the hydro-meteorological fluxes in East Asia. In this study, Common Land Model （CLM） was used in offline-mode during the summer monsoon period of 2006 in East Asia, with different forcings from Asiaflux, Korea Land Data Assimilation System （KLDAS）, and Global Land Data Assimilation System （GLDAS）, at point and regional scales, separately. The CLM results were compared with observations from Asiaflux sites. The estimated net radiation showed good agreement, with r = 0.99 for the point scale and 0.85 for the regional scale. The estimated sensible and latent heat fluxes using Asiaflux and KLDAS data indicated reasonable agreement, with r = 0.70. The estimated soil moisture and soil temperature showed similar patterns to observations, although the estimated water fluxes using KLDAS showed larger discrepancies than those of Asiaflux because of scale mismatch. The spatial distribution of hydro-meteorological fluxes according to KLDAS for East Asia were compared to the CLM results with GLDAS, and the GLDAS provided online. The spatial distributions of CLM with KLDAS were analogous to CLM with GLDAS, and the standalone GLDAS data. The results indicate that KLDAS is a good potential source of high spatial resolution forcing data. Therefore, the KLDAS is a promising alternative product, capable of compensating for the lack of observations and low resolution grid data for East Asia.

关键词： Common Land Model Korea Land Data Assimilation System Global Land Data Assimilation System Asi-aflux hydro-meteorological fluxes

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Application of geographically weighted regression model in the estimation of surface air temperature lapse rate

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第3期31卷 389-402页

作者： QIN Yun REN Guoyu HUANG Yunxin ZHANG Panfeng WEN Kangmin Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China School of Resource and Environmental Science Hubei UniversityWuhan 430062China

The surface air temperature lapse rate(SATLR)plays a key role in the hydrological,glacial and ecological modeling,the regional downscaling,and the reconstruction of high-resolution surface air ***,how to accurately estimate the SATLR in the regions with complex terrain and climatic condition has been a great challenge for *** geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was applied in this paper to estimate the SATLR in China’s mainland,and then the assessment and validation for the GWR model were *** spatial pattern of regression residuals which was identified by Moran’s Index indicated that the GWR model was broadly reasonable for the estimation of *** small mean absolute error(MAE)in all months indicated that the GWR model had a strong predictive ability for the surface air *** comparison with previous studies for the seasonal mean SATLR further evidenced the accuracy of the ***,the GWR method has potential application for estimating the SATLR in a large region with complex terrain and climatic condition.

关键词： temperature lapse rate geographically weighted regression surface air temperature estimation regression residual

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INTERDECADAL TRANSITIONS AND TWO EXCEPTIONAL YEARS OF JUNE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第3期18卷 341-348页

作者：姚才钱维宏 Guangxi meteorological Bureau Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University

An analysis of high-resolution precipitation data for 1978-2006 indicates that the precipitation over southern China in June experienced a low-value period in 1980-1989 and a high-value period in *** also reveals that exceptional heavy(light) precipitation occurred in June 2005(2004) since *** these variations on both interdecadal and interannual timescales,fairly uniform anomalies of precipitation appeared over vietnam,southern China,and southeastern *** to positive(negative) precipitation anomalies,anomalous southeasterly(northwesterly) flow at 850 hPa reached vietnam and anomalous southwesterly(northeasterly) flow expanded to the coastal regions of southern and southeastern *** to the positive(negative) precipitation anomalies during 1992-2001(1980-1989),positive(negative) anomalies of sea surface temperature appeared over the extratropical northwestern Pacific in the winter and spring seasons,associated with a strong(weak) extension of the warm Kuroshio Current that affects the coastal region of eastern *** above-normal precipitation in June 2005 was associated with the pseudo-ENSO event in the previous winter,and the below-normal precipitation in June 2004 was associated with negative anomalies of sea surface temperature over the equatorial central Pacific and positive anomalies over the equatorial western and eastern Pacific.

关键词： Southern China June precipitation anomalies of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature interdecadal and interannual timescales

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Validation of the Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates over the Tibet

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第6期25卷 734-741页

作者：除多普布顿珠罗布坚参 SAGAR Bajracharya MANDIRA Shrestha 郭建平 Institute of Plateau Meteorology CMA Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences Tibet Weather Observatory Tibet Meteorological Service International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences CMA

Measuring rainfall from space appears to be the only cost effective and viable means in estimating regional precipitation over the Tibet, and the satellite rainfall products are essential to hydrological and agricultural modeling. A long-standing problem in the meteorological and hydrological studies is that there is only a sparse raingauge network representing the spatial distribution of precipitation and its quantity on small scales over the Tibet. Therefore, satellite derived quantitative precipitation estimates are extremely usefill for obtaining rainfall patterns that can be used by hydrological models to produce forecasts of river discharge and to delineate the flood hazard area. In this paper, validation of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration （NOAA） Climate Prediction Center （CPC） RFE （rainfall estimate） 2.0 data was made by using daily rainfall observations at 11 weather stations over different climate zones from southeast to northwest of the Tibet during the rainy season from 1 June to 30 September 2005 and 2006. Analysis on the time series of daily rainfall of RFE-CPC and observed data in different climate zones reveals that the mean correlation coefficients between satellite estimated and observed rainfall is 0.74. Only at Pali and Nielamu stations located in the southern brink of the Tibet along the Himalayan Mountains, are the correlation coefficients less than 0.62. In addition, continuous validations show that the RFE performed well in different climate zones, with considerably low mean error （ME） and root mean square error （RMSE） scores except at Nielamu station along the Himalayan range. Likewise, for the dichotomous validation, at most stations over the Tibet, the probability of detection （POD） values is above 73% while the false alarm rate （FAR） is between 1% and 12%. Overall, NOAA CPC RFE 2.0 products performed well in the estimation and monitoring of rainfall over the Tibet and can be used to analyze the precipitation pattern,

关键词： precipitation validation satellite rainfall estimation Tibetan Plateau

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Characteristics of Surface Solar Radiation under Different Air Pollution Conditions over Nanjing, China: Observation and Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第10期36卷 1047-1059页

作者： Hao LUO Yong HAN Chunsong LU Jun YANG Yonghua WU Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China meteorological administration School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China NOAA-CREST City College of the City University of New York New York 10031 USA

Surface solar radiation (SSR) can affect climate, the hydrological cycle, plant photosynthesis, and solar power. The values of solar radiation at the surface reflect the influence of human activity on radiative climate and environmental effects, so it is a key parameter in the evaluation of climate change and air pollution due to anthropogenic disturbances. This study presents the characteristics of the SSR variation in Nanjing, China, from March 2016 to June 2017, using a combined set of pyranometer and pyrheliometer observations. The SSR seasonal variation and statistical properties are investigated and characterized under different air pollution levels and visibilities. We discuss seasonal variations in visibility, air quality index (AQI), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), and their correlations with SSR. The scattering of solar radiation by particulate matter varies significantly with particle size. Compared with the particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 μm and 10 μm (PM2.5-10), we found that the PM2.5 dominates the variation of scattered radiation due to the differences of single-scattering albedo and phase function. Because of the correlation between PM2.5 and SSR, it is an effective and direct method to estimate PM2.5 by the value of SSR, or vice versa to obtain the SSR by the value of PM2.5. Under clear-sky conditions (clearness index ≥0.5), the visibility is negatively correlated with the diffuse fraction, AQI, PM10, and PM2.5, and their correlation coefficients are ?0.50,?0.60,?0.76, and ?0.92, respectively. The results indicate the linkage between scattered radiation and air quality through the value of visibility.

关键词： surface solar radiation air pollution particulate matter visibility radiative transfer

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