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Evaluation of CLDAS and GPM Precipitation Products over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer 2005–2021 Based on Hourly Rain Gauge Observations

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 749-767页

作者： Qiaohua LIU Xiuping YAO School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological administration Training Centre Beijing 100081

Accurate,reliable,and high spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products are essential for precipitation research,hydrological simulation,disaster warning,and many other applications over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) data are widely recognized as the most reliable satellite precipitation product for the *** China meteorological administration(CMA) Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS) precipitation fusion dataset(CLDAS-Prcp),hereafter referred to as CLDAS,is a high-resolution,self-developed precipitation product in China with regional *** on the TP,this study provides a long-term evaluation of CLDAS and GPM from various aspects,including characteristics on different timescales,diurnal variation,and elevation impacts,based on hourly rain gauge data in summer from 2005 to *** results show that CLDAS and GPM are highly effective alternatives to the rain gauge records over the *** both perform well for precipitation amount and frequency on multiple *** tends to overestimate precipitation amount and underestimate precipitation frequency over the ***,GPM tends to overestimate both precipitation amount and *** difference between them mainly lies in the trace *** and GPM effectively capture rainfall events,but their performance decreases significantly as intensity *** both show better accuracy in diurnal variation of precipitation amount than frequency,and their performance tends to be superior during nighttime compared to the ***,there are some differences of the two against rain gauge observations in diurnal variation,especially in the phase of the diurnal *** performance of CLDAS and GPM varies at different *** both have the best performance over 3000–3500 *** elevation dependence of CLDAS is relatively minor,while GPM shows a stronger elevation dependence in terms of precipitation *** tends to ov

关键词： China meteorological administration(CMA)Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)precipitation fusion dataset(CLDAS-Prcp) Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) Tibetan Plateau(TP) precipitation evaluation

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Modification of Cumulus Convection and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the GRAPES Global Model

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Journal of meteorological Research 2015年第5期29卷 806-822页

作者：刘琨陈起英孙健 National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China meteorological administration

Cumulus convection is a key linkage between hydrological cycle and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Cumulus parameterization scheme is an important component in numerical weather and climate modeling studies. In the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System （GRAPES）, turbulent mixing and diffusion approach is applied in its shallow convection scheme. This method overestimates the vertical transport of heat and moisture fluxes but underestimates cloud water mixing ratio over the region of stratocumulus clouds. As a result, the simulated low stratocumulus clouds are less than observations. To overcome this problem, a mass flux method is employed in the shallow convection scheme to replace the original one. Meanwhile, the deep convection scheme is adjusted correspondingly. This modification is similar to that in the US NCEP Global Forecast System （GFS）, which uses the simplified Arakawa Schubert Scheme （SAS）. The planetary boundary layer scheme （PBL） is also revised by considering the coupling between the PBL and stratocumulus clouds. With the modification of both the cumulus and PBL schemes, the GRAPES simulation of shallow convective heating rate becomes more reasonable; total amounts of stratocumulus clouds simulated over the eastern Pacific and their vertical structure are more consistent with observations; the underestimation of stratocumulus clouds simulated by original schemes is less severe with the revised schemes. Precipitation distribution in the tropics becomes more reasonable and spurious precipitation is effectively suppressed. The westward extension and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high simulated with the revised schemes are more consistent with Final Operational Global Analysis （FNL） than that simulated with the original schemes. The statistical scores for the global GRAPES forecast are generally improved with the revised schemes, especially for the simulation of geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphe

关键词： GRAPES model cumulus parameterization boundary layer diffusion mass flux

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Development and Application of an Atmospheric-HydrologicHydraulic Flood Forecasting Model Driven by TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2012年第1期26卷 93-102页

作者：包红军赵琳娜 Public meteorological Service Center China Meteorological Administration National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment （THORPEX） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE） data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction （NWP） information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian meteorological Centre （CMC）, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, the UK Met Office （UKMO）, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a f

关键词： ensemble flood forecast TIGGE ensemble predictions Xinanjiang model one-dimensionalunsteady flow model flood diversion and retarding Huaihe River

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Applicability Assessment of the 1998–2018 CLDAS Multi-Source Precipitation Fusion Dataset over China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第4期34卷 879-892页

作者： Shuai SUN Chunxiang SHI Yang PAN Lei BAI Bin XU Tao ZHANG Shuai HAN Lipeng JIANG National meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Traditional hourly rain gauges and automatic weather stations rarely measure solid precipitation, except for those stations with weighing-type precipitation sensors. Microwave remote sensing has only a low ability to retrieve solid precipitation. In addition, there are no long-term, high-quality precipitation data in China that can be used to drive land surface models. To address these issues, in the China meteorological administration(CMA) Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS), we blended the Climate Prediction Center(CPC) morphing technique(CMORPH) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA2) precipitation datasets with observed temperature and precipitation data on various temporal scales using multigrid variational analysis and temporal downscaling to produce a multi-source precipitation fusion dataset for China(CLDAS-Prcp). This dataset covers all of China at a resolution of 6.25 km at hourly intervals from 1998 to 2018. We performed dependent and independent evaluations of the CLDAS-Prcp dataset from the perspectives of seasonal total precipitation and land surface model simulation. Our results show that the CLDAS-Prcp dataset represents reasonably the spatial distribution of precipitation in China. The dependent evaluation indicates that the CLDAS-Prcp performs better than the MERRA2 precipitation, CMORPH precipitation, Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2(GLDAS-V2.1) precipitation,and CLDAS-V2.0 winter precipitation, as compared to the meteorological observational precipitation. The independent evaluation indicates that the CLDAS-Prcp dataset performs better than the Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) precipitation dataset and is similar to the CLDAS-V2.0 summer precipitation dataset based on the hydrological observational precipitation. The simulated soil moisture content driven by CLDAS-Prcp is slightly better than that driven by the CLDAS-V2.0 precipitation, whereas the snow depth simulation driven by C

关键词： China meteorological administration Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS) precipitation data fusion Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA2) Climate Prediction Center(CPC)morphing technique(CMORPH) Space–Time Multiscale Variational Analysis System(STMAS) Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP)

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Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2012年第1期26卷 62-71页

作者：赵琳娜齐丹田付友吴昊狄靖月王志李爱华 Public meteorological Service Center China Meteorological Administration National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Anhui Weather Modification Office Anhui Provincial Meteorological Service

Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE）-China meteorological administration （CMA） archiving center and the raingauge data, the three-layer variable infiltration capacity （VIC-3L） land surface model was employed to carry out probabilistic hydrological forecast experiments over the upper Huaihe River catchment from 20 July to 3 August 2008. The results show that the performance of the ensemble probabilistic prediction from each ensemble prediction system （EPS） is better than that of the deterministic prediction. Especially, the 72-h prediction has been improved obviously. The ensemble spread goes widely with increasing lead time and more observed discharge is bracketed in the 5th-99th quantile. The accuracy of river discharge prediction driven by the European Centre （EC）-EPS is higher than that driven by the CMA-EPS and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）-EPS, and the grand-ensemble prediction is the best for hydrological prediction using the VIC model. With regard to Wangjiaba station, all predictions made with a single EPS are close to the observation between the 25th and 75th quantile. The onset of the flood ascending and the river discharge thresholds are predicted well, and so is the second rising limb. Nevertheless, the flood recession is not well predicted.

关键词： probabilistic hydrological prediction TIGGE variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model Huaihe River

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Observational Facts Regarding the Joint Activities of the Southwest Vortex and Plateau Vortex after Its Departure from the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第1期33卷 34-46页

作者： Shuhua YU Wenliang GAO Dixiang XIAO Jun PENG Institute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072 Ya'an meteorological Bureau Ya'an 625000 Sichuan meteorological Observatory Chengdu 610072

Using atmospheric observational data from 1998 to 2013,station rainfall data,TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission） data,as well as annual statistics for the plateau vortex and shear line,the joint activity features of sustained departure plateau vortexes（SDPVs） and southwest vortexes（SWVs） are *** new and useful observational facts and understanding are obtained about the joint activities of the two types of *** results show that：（1） The joint active period of the two vortexes is from May to August,and mostly in June and July.（2） The SDPVs of the partnership mainly originate near Zaduo,while the SWVs come from Jiulong.（3） Most of the two vortexes move in almost the same direction,moving eastward together with the low *** SDPVs mainly act in the area to the north of the Yangtze River,while the SWVs are situated across the Yangtze River valley.（4） The joint activity of the two vortexes often produces sustained regional heavy rainfall to the south of the Yellow River,influencing wide areas of China,and even as far as the Korean Peninsula,Japan and vietnam.（5） Most of the two vortexes are baroclinic or cold vortexes,and they both become strengthened in terms of their joint activity.（6） When the two vortexes move over the sea,their central pressure descends and their rainfall increases,especially for SWVs.（7） The two vortexes might spin over the same area simultaneously when there are tropical cyclones in the eastern and southern seas of China,or move southward together if a tropical cyclone appears near Hainan Island.

关键词： plateau vortex southwest vortex observational study

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CHARACTERISTICS OF INTENSITY CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FROM 1977 TO 2007

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第2期17卷 156-165页

作者：李勋赵声蓉李泽椿李英王勇 Hainan Province meteorological Observation National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.

关键词： tropical cyclones statistics intensity South China Sea

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Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 323-340页

作者： K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Regional Specialized meteorological Center Honolulu HonoluluUSA National Hurricane Center Miami FLUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Philippine Atmospheric Geophysicaland Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University USA National Aeronautics and Space administration MarylandUSA vietnam meteorological and hydrological administration HanoiViet Nam China meteorological administration BeijingChina Regional Specialized meteorological Center New Delhi New DelhiIndia Regional Specialized meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Centre TokyoJapan Department of Physics Imperial College LondonUK Korea meteorological administration SeoulRepublic of Korea

Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research *** report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both *** IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks *** prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis *** operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.

关键词： Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone genesis Ensemble Prediction Operational Forecasting Probabilistic Verification Survey Global

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Recent signal and impact of wet-to-dry climatic shift in Xinjiang, China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第9期31卷 1283-1298页

作者： YAO Junqiang MAO Weiyi CHEN Jing DILINUER Tuoliewubieke Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China

The Xinjiang region of China is among the most sensitive regions to global *** on the meteorological and hydrological observation data,the regional wet-to-dry climate regime shifts in Xinjiang were analyzed and the impacts of climatic shift on the eco-hydrological environment of Xinjiang were assessed in this *** results showed that temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have increased since the mid-1980 s,showing a warming-wetting ***,drought frequency and severity significantly increased after *** climate of Xinjiang experienced an obvious shift from a warm-wet to a warm-dry regime in *** the beginning of the 21 st century,extreme temperatures and the number of high temperature days have significantly increased,the start date of high temperature has advanced,and the end date of high temperature has delayed in *** addition,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation have significantly ***,regional ecology and water resources have been impacted by climatic shift and extreme climate in *** response,satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index showed that,since the 1980 s,most regions of Xinjiang experienced a greening trend and vegetation browning after *** soil moisture in Xinjiang has significantly decreased since the late 1990 s,resulting in adverse ecological ***,the response of river runoff to climatic shift is complex and controlled by the proportion of snowmelt to the *** originating from the Tianshan Mountains showed a positive response to the regional wet-to-dry shift,whereas that originating from the Kunlun Mountains showed no obvious *** climatic shift and increased climate extremes in Xinjiang have led to intensification of drought and aggravation of instability of water circulation systems and *** study provides a scientific basis to meet the challenges of water resource utilization and ecological risk management

关键词： climatic shift wet-to-dry water resources drought Xinjiang

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Climatology of Cloud-base Height from Long-term Radiosonde Measurements in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第2期35卷 158-168页

作者： Yong ZHANG Lejian ZHANG Jianping GUO Jinming FENG Lijuan CAO Yang WANG Qing ZHOU Liangxu LI Bai LI Hui XU Lin LIU Ning AN Huan LIU meteorological Observation Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences National meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University

Clouds are critical to the global radiation budget and hydrological cycle, but knowledge is still poor concerning the observed climatology of cloud-base height （CBH） in China. Based on fine-resolution sounding observations from the China Radiosonde Network （CRN）, the method used to estimate CBH was modified, and uncertainty analyses indicated that the CBH is good enough. The accuracy of CBH estimation is verified by the comparison between the sounding-derived CBHs and those estimated from the micro-pulse lidar and millimeter-wave cloud radar. As such, the CBH climatology was compiled for the period 2006-16. Overall, the CBH exhibits large geographic variability across China, at both 0800 Local Standard Time （LST） and 2000 LST, irrespective of season. In addition, the summertime cloud base tends to be elevated to higher altitudes in dry regions [i.e., Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain （NCP）]. By comparison, the Tibetan Plateau （TP）, Pearl River Delta （PRD） and Sichuan Basin （SCB） have relatively low CBHs （〈 2.4 km above ground level）. In terms of seasonality, the CBH reaches its maximum in summer and minimum in winter. A low cloud base tends to occur frequently （〉 70%） over the TP, PRD and SCB. In contrast, at most sites over the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） and the NCP, about half the cloud belongs to the high-cloud category. The CBH does not exhibit marked diurnal variation in summer, throughout all CRN sites, probably due to the persistent cloud coverage caused by the East Asia Summer Monsson. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CBH climatology produced from sounding measurements in China, and provides a useful reference for obtaining observational cloud base information.

关键词： cloud base height radiosonde relative humidity China climatology

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