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Model-based small area estimation with no samples within the areas,by benchmarking to marginal cross-sectional and time-series estimates

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2020年第1期4卷 28-42页

作者： Danny Pfeffermann Michael Sverchkov Richard Tiller Lizhi Liu National Statistician and CBS Director JerusalemIsrael Department of statistics Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK bureau of labor statistics WashingtonDCUSA

Official monthly U.S.labour force estimation at the sub-State level(mostly counties)is based on what is known as the‘Handbook’(HB)method,one of the earliest uses of administrative data for small area estimation.The administrative data,however,are poor in coverage and have conceptual deficiencies.Past attempts to correct for the resulting bias of the HB estimates by informal(implicit)modelling have not been successful,due to the absence of regular direct monthly survey estimates at the sub-State level.Benchmarking the sub-State HB estimates each month to the State model dependent estimates helps to correct for an overall bias,but not in individual areas.In this article we propose benchmarking additionally to the annual model-dependent area estimates.The annual models include known administrative data as covariates,and are used to define corresponding monthly sub-State models,which in turn enable producing monthly synthetic estimates as possible substitutes for the HB estimates in real time production.Variance estimates,which account for sampling errors and the errors of the model dependent estimators are developed.Data for sub-State areas in the State of Arizona are used for illustration.Although the methodology developed in this article stems from a particular(but very important)application,it is general and applicable to other similar problems.

关键词： Benchmarking Denton method mixed models variance estimation

Multivariate small area estimation under nonignorable nonresponse

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2019年第2期3卷 213-223页

作者： Danny Pfeffermann Michael Sverchkov National Statistician and CBS Director JerusalemIsrael Department of statistics Hebrew UniversityJerusalemIsrael Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute(S3RI) University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK bureau of labor statistics WashingtonDCUSA

We consider multivariate small area estimation under nonignorable, not missing at random(NMAR) nonresponse. We assume a response model that accounts for the different patterns ofthe observed outcomes, (which values are observed and which ones are missing), and estimatethe response probabilities by application of the Missing Information Principle (MIP). By this principle, we first derive the likelihood score equations for the case where the missing outcomes areactually observed, and then integrate out the unobserved outcomes from the score equationswith respect to the distribution holding for the missing data. The latter distribution is definedby the distribution fitted to the observed data for the respondents and the response model. Theintegrated score equations are then solved with respect to the unknown parameters indexingthe response model. Once the response probabilities have been estimated, we impute the missing outcomes from their appropriate distribution, yielding a complete data set with no missingvalues, which is used for predicting the target area means. A parametric bootstrap procedure isdeveloped for assessing the mean squared errors (MSE) of the resulting predictors. We illustratethe approach by a small simulation study.

关键词： Distribution of missing data imputation under nonignorable nonresponse missing information principle MSE estimation NMAR nonresponse

New Features and Trends of China’s High-Quality Economic Development--High-Quality Development Establishes New Trends

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Qiu Shi 2018年第4期10卷 104-109页

作者： Sheng Laiyun CPC Leadership Group National bureau of statistics

Since early 2018,the domestic and internationalenvironments have been growing increasingly complex,with noticeably more challenges.In particular,the us has unilaterally provoked economic and trading conflicts with the rest of the world and continued to escalate the trade war with China,leading to an even more divided and turbulent global economy.

关键词： Economic Development Features Trends

From Poverty To a Well-Off Life——Chinese people enjoy full rights to subsistence and development

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The Journal of Human Rights 2003年第2期2卷 2-7页

作者： Zhu Zhixin, Director of the State statistics bureau State statistics bureau

Ⅰ The Chinese government has always attached much importance to human rights and placed the rights to subsistence and development of the more than one billion people above everything else. In the fundamental interests of the broadest possible masses of people, it has adopted a series of major policy measures toward this end, thus winning the support and love of the people. 1. No wavering in making economic development its central task and a matter of the first and foremost importance in invigo-

关键词： of on as in Chinese people enjoy full rights to subsistence and development From Poverty To a Well-Off Life have that from been than us

Estimation,analysis of China's labor force 2000-08

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China Economist 2010年第3期5卷 112-121页

作者：胡英 Senior Statistician Department of Population & EmploymentState Statistics Bureau

The author estimated and analyzed China's urban and rural economically active,employed and unemployed populations as well as the labor-force participation ratio and employment and unemployment rates from 2000-2008 by referring to population census data and establishing estimation models in this paper.The research results indicate changing trends in China's urban and rural economically active population from 2000-2008.

关键词： Urban and rural economically active population labor-force participation ratio employment rate and unemployment rate

Constructing Statistical Intervals for Small Area Estimates Based on Generalized Linear Mixed Model in Health Surveys

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Open Journal of statistics 2022年第1期12卷 70-81页

作者： Yan Wang Xingyou Zhang Hua Lu Janet B. Croft Kurt J. Greenlund Division of Population Health National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta GA USA Office of Compensation and Working Conditions U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington DC USA

Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) has been widely used in small area estimation for health indicators. Bayesian estimation is usually used to construct statistical intervals, however, its computational intensity is a big challenge for large complex surveys. Frequentist approaches, such as bootstrapping, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, are also applied but not evaluated in terms of the interval magnitude, width, and the computational time consumed. The 2013 Florida Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data was used as a case study. County-level estimated prevalence of three health-related outcomes was obtained through a GLMM;and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were generated from bootstrapping and MC simulation. The intervals were compared to 95% credential intervals through a hierarchial Bayesian model. The results showed that 95% CIs for county-level estimates of each outcome by using MC simulation were similar to the 95% credible intervals generated by Bayesian estimation and were the most computationally efficient. It could be a viable option for constructing statistical intervals for small area estimation in public health practice.

关键词： Bayesian Estimation Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Bootstrapping Monte Carlo Simulation Small Area Estimation

An Analysis of China's Trade Balances with Other Countries and Regions

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China Economist 2007年第1期2卷 60-67页

作者：余芳东 Director and Senior Statistician Deputy Director-General International Statistical Information Centre National Bureau of Statistics

This article utilizes a large amount of statistical data to analyze the global distribution of foreign trade in China since 1990,as well as the factors involved and the changes in trends.The research results indicate that China has gained a favourable balance against developed countries and a disadvantageous balance against developing countries;China enjoys a trade surplus with North American and European countries while suffering deficits with those in the Asia.pacific region,as well as with resource-abundant Australia,Africa and South America. With regard to trends,the structure of China’s foreign trade will not undergo fundamental changes in the short term,but in the long run will be transformed in line with restructuring of the growth pattern.

关键词： An Analysis of China’s Trade Balances with Other Countries and Regions us EU high

National Concentration of High-tech Products:The Second Great Diverqence?

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China & World Economy 2023年第1期31卷 88-118页

作者： Bing Lu Jiandong Ju Xinding Yu School of statistics Beijing Normal UniversityChina PBC School of Finance Tsinghua UniversityChina School of International Trade and Economics University of International Business and EconomicsChina

Based on the product-country level trade data from 2004 to 2017,as well as the High-Tech Products Catalog from the us Census bureau,this paper examines empirically the current phenomenon of"national concentration"in high-tech exports.The results show that the phenomenon of"national concentration"not only exists but also tends to be self-reinforcing.Compared with other products,the exports of high-tech products tend to be concentrated in certain countries,and this concentration trends were further strengthened after the global financial crisis of2008-2009.The national concentration of R&D activities may be one of the important causes of the national concentration of high-tech products.This pattern remains robust when we further use the value-added export data and different definitions of high-tech products.We argue that the phenomenon of"national concentration"of high-tech exports may herald the arrival of the"Second Great Divergence"-the divergence between innovative and manufacturing activities-in the global economy.

关键词： high-tech products national concentration R&D second great divergence

Multi-outcome longitudinal small area estimation-a case study

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2019年第2期3卷 136-149页

作者： Eric Slud Yves Thibaudeau Center for Statistical Research&Methodology Census BureauWashingtonDCUSA Mathematics Department University of MarylandCollege ParkMDUSA

A recent paper [Thibaudeau, Slud, and Gottschalck (2017). Modeling log-linear conditional probabilities for estimation in surveys. The Annals of Applied statistics, 11, 680–697] proposed a ‘hybrid’method of survey estimation combining coarsely cross-classified design-based survey-weightedtotals in a population with loglinear or generalised-linear model-based conditional probabilitiesfor cells in a finer cross-classification. The models were compared in weighted and unweightedforms on data from the us Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), a large nationallongitudinal survey. The hybrid method was elaborated in a book-chapter [Thibaudeau, Slud,& Cheng (2019). Small-area estimation of cross-classified gross flows using longitudinal survey data. In P. Lynn (Ed.), Methodology of longitudinal surveys II. Wiley] about estimating grossflows in (two-period) longitudinal surveys, by considering fixed versus mixed effect versionsof the conditional-probability models and allowing for 3 or more outcomes in the later-periodcategories used to define gross flows within generalised logistic regression models. The methodology provided for point and interval small-area estimation, specifically area-level two-periodlabour-status gross-flow estimation, illustrated on a us Current Population Survey (CPS) datasetof survey respondents in two successive months in 16 states. In the current paper, that data analysis is expanded in two ways: (i) by analysing the CPS dataset in greater detail, incorporatingmultiple random effects (slopes as well as intercepts), using predictive as well as likelihood metrics for model quality, and (ii) by showing how Bayesian computation (MCMC) provides insightsconcerning fixed- versus mixed-effect model predictions. The findings from fixed-effect analyseswith state effects, from corresponding models with state random effects, and fom Bayes analysisof posteriors for the fixed state-effects with other model coefficients fixed, all confirm each otherand support a model with normal random state effe

关键词： Bayesian computation Current Population Survey generalised logistic regression gross flows mixed-effects model small-area estimation