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Causes of Winter Persistent Extreme Cold Events in Northeastern China

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 780-793页

作者： Ming YANG Qingjiu GAO Tim LI State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and risk management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA

Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China Meteorological Data *** extreme cooling area and intensity indices associated with the ECEs exhibit a dominant 10–40-day periodicity,indicating a close link with atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs).The ECEs are categorized into W-and *** the former,the low-frequency cooling associated with the ISO first penetrates into the western boundary of the northeastern China domain and later occupies the entire domain at its peak *** upper-tropospheric circulation associated with this type is characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented Rossby wave train,expanding from the Ural Mountains to the western Pacific *** the latter,the cooling invades the northern boundary first and then penetrates into the entire *** upper tropospheric precursory signal associated with this type is a zonally oriented negative geopotential height anomaly,which slowly moves southward.A downward-propagating signal is observed in the stratospheric potential vorticity field prior to the peak cooling,implying a possible stratospheric *** addition to the W-and N-types,ECEs can also occur in a localized region near either at the northern or southern boundary of the domain.

关键词： extreme cold events low-frequency ISO mode Rossby wave train composite analysis downward propagation potential vorticity

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Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Summer Extreme Hot-Humid Compound Events over Southern Eurasia under Different Sea Surface Temperature Backgrounds

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 744-760页

作者： Yajing QI Haishan CHEN Siguang ZHU State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and risk management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Land–atmosphere coupling and sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies both have essential impacts on weather and climate *** on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and the CESM1.2.2 model,this study investigates the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on summer extreme hot-humid events(EHHE)over southern Eurasia under different SST *** results suggest that coupling causes near-surface air temperature increases that exceed 0.5℃.From 1961 to 2020,the frequency of EHHE has continuously increased,and is closely related to soil moisture anomalies in the northern Indian Peninsula(IDP)and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(YRB).Numerical simulations further demonstrate that land–atmosphere coupling raises the risk of EHHE by 25.4%.In a typical El Niño SST background state,intensified land–atmosphere coupling tends to produce notable increases in the frequency of *** dominant processes that land–atmosphere coupling affects the EHHE variations are evidently different between these two *** surface thermal anomalies predominate in the IDP,while moisture conditions are more critical in the *** warm SST anomalies exist,dry soil anomalies in the IDP are prominent,and evaporation is constrained,increasing sensible heat *** geopotential height anomalies are significant,combined with adiabatic warming induced by descending motion and a noticeable warm center in the near-surface *** southward shift of the westerly jet enhances divergence over *** anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the western Pacific are conducive to guiding moisture transport to the YRB,providing a favorable circulation background for the development of summer EHHE.

关键词： land-atmosphere coupling sea surface temperature extreme hot-humid events southern Eurasia

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Pricing and Inventory Decisions Facing Strategic Customers with Behavioral Preferences

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2025年

作者： WANG Ruopeng WANG Jinting CHEN Junlin Department of Mathematics Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology Department of management Sciences School of Management Science and Engineering Central University of Finance and Economics

The authors consider a two-period joint inventory and pricing decision problem for a retailer facing strategic customers with behavioral preferences such as reference dependence, loss aversion and risk preferences. The authors develop and analyze a model that accounts for customers' these behavioral preferences as well as value depreciation on the product, and makes predictions on the retailer's optimal decisions. Moreover, the authors demonstrate how the presence of these behavioral preferences and primary parameters will leverage the retailer's optimal decisions. It is revealed that strategic customers' loss aversion behavior could benefit the retailer from pushing up the regular price, the stocking quantity and hence the expected profit. However, customer's value depreciation on the product will drive down these aspects. To alleviate the negative effect of the strategic customers' behavioral preferences, the authors suggest the retailer applying inventory commitment strategy and price guarantee policy, which could increase the retailer's profit beyond the rational expectation equilibrium level in some situations.

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Metagenomics reveals the resistance patterns of electrochemically treated erythromycin fermentation residue

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第2期148卷 567-578页

作者： Jieya Zhou HaoWu Haiyan Wang ZongruWu Lihu Shi Shulei Tian Li-an Hou State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijing 100012China State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Solid Waste and Soil Ecological Environment Technology Center Hohhot 010020China

Erythromycin fermentation residue(EFR)represents a typical hazardous waste produced by the microbial pharmaceutical *** electrolysis is promising for EFR disposal,its microbial threats remain ***,metagenomics was coupled with the random forest technique to decipher the antibiotic resistance patterns of electrochemically treated *** showed that 95.75%of erythromycin could be removed in 2 *** temporarily influenced EFRmicrobiota,where the relative abundances of Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria increased,while those of Fusobacteria,Firmicutes,and Bacteroidetes decreased.A total of 505 antibiotic resistance gene(ARG)subtypes encoding resistance to 21 antibiotic types and 150 mobile genetic elements(MGEs),mainly including plasmid(72)and transposase(52)were assembled in *** linear regression models were identified among microbial richness,ARG subtypes,and MGE numbers(r^(2)=0.50-0.81,pmanagement of antibiotic fermentation residue.

关键词： Erythromycin fermentation residue (EFR) Microbial pharmaceutical industry Disposal strategy Metagenomics Antibiotic fermentation residue management

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Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2002年第1期1卷 145-151页

作者： Weimin Dong risk management Solutions,Inc.USA Ph.D and Visiting Professor of Institute of Engineering Mechanics risk management Solutions Inc. USA

Internationally earthquake insurance,like all other insurance (fire,auto),adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is,based on historical loss experience to determine insurance *** to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence,irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science,computer science and engineering,computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.

关键词： risk insurance earthquake engineering model

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Why People Live in Flood-Prone Areas in Akuressa, Sri Lanka

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International Journal of Disaster risk Science 2018年第2期9卷 143-156页

作者： Johan Askman Olof Nilsson Per Becker Division of risk management and Societal Safety Lund University

To investigate why people live in areas at high risk of floods, a qualitative case study was carried out in the areas around Akuressa, in southwest Sri Lanka. Data collection consisted mainly of semistructured interviews with local residents and government officials. The purpose was to study why people live in areas at high risk of floods, by looking beyond the purely physical aspects of living with hazards and exploring the underlying social factors. Four main factors were identified: an overall good living situation; a sense of place; difficulties relocating; and being well-adapted to the situation. The analysis also examined whether government officials shared the views of local residents. The findings highlighted both areas of consensus and discrepancies related to risk awareness, and the efficiency of risk reduction measures that had been implemented by the government. The case study identified and explored underlying social factors, such as risk normalization, risk trade-offs, and push-and-pull processes, which seem to influence the decision to live in a high-risk area.

关键词： Flood risk risk awareness risk perception Sri Lanka

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Research on the three-dimensional electrical structure of the shallow portion of the southern segment of the Red River Fault(Dazhai Village)

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第02期9卷 212-224页

作者： Jiong Zhang Yan Jing XiaoBin Chen JunTao Cai ZhongYin Liu XingXing Huang PeiJie Wang Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of China National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China Department of Earth and Space Sciences Southern University of Science and Technology

No earthquake of magnitude six or greater has been recorded historically in the southern segment of the Red River Fault(RRF).This absence constitutes a significant seismic gap, suggesting a risk of future strong earthquakes. The China Earthquake Science Experimental Site intends to conduct drilling exploration in this area, which necessitates improved knowledge of the fault zone's geometric distribution characteristics and deep structure. We obtained and analyzed audio and broadband magnetotelluric(MT) data collected at one of the alternative drilling stations(in the Dazhai Village of Honghe County). We have used these data to obtain a highresolution 3-D electrical model of this study area's subsurface to a depth of 5 km. We report that the electrical structure from the surface to 0.5 km is relatively complex, characterized by alternating high and low resistivity; below 0.5 km, the electrical structure becomes more simplified. The RRF extends northwest-southeast orientation along the high and low resistivity boundary, dipping northeastward. The electrical structure of the Red River Valley, which the fault zone traverses, reveals low resistivity characteristics with a lateral width of up to2 km. This study offers critical electromagnetic constraints that enhance our understanding of the tectonic characteristics of the RRF. The findings will inform and aid in the design of drilling plans for the southern segment of the RRF region.

关键词： the southern segment of the Red River Fault electrical structure magnetotellurics

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Impact of climate change and land use/cover change on water yield in the Liaohe River Basin,Northeast China

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Journal of Arid Land 2025年第2期17卷 182-199页

作者： LYU Leting JIANG Ruifeng ZHENG Defeng LIANG Liheng College of Geosciences Liaoning Normal UniversityDalian 116029China Dalian Key Laboratory of Agro-Meteorological Disaster risk Prevention and Control Dalian 116029China College of Geographic Sciences Changchun Normal UniversityChangchun 130032China

The Liaohe River Basin(LRB)in Northeast China,a critical agricultural and industrial zone,has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization,intensified land use changes,and climate *** the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield and its driving factors is essential for sustainable water resource management in this ecologically sensitive *** study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of water yield in the LRB(dividing into six sub-basins from east to west:East Liaohe River Basin(ELRB),Taizi River Basin(TRB),Middle Liaohe River Basin(MLRB),West Liaohe River Basin(WLRB),Xinkai River Basin(XRB),and Wulijimuren River Basin(WRB))from 1993 to 2022,with a focus on the impacts of climate change and land use cover change(LUCC).Results revealed that the LRB had an average annual precipitation of 483.15 mm,with an average annual water yield of 247.54 mm,both showing significant upward trend over the 30-a ***,water yield demonstrated significant heterogeneity,with higher values in southeastern sub-basins and lower values in northwestern *** TRB exhibited the highest water yield due to abundant precipitation and favorable topography,while the WRB recorded the lowest water yield owing to arid conditions and sparse *** played a significant role in shaping the annual fluctuations and total volume of water yield,with its variability exerting substantially greater impacts than actual evapotranspiration(AET)and ***,LUCC,particularly cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction,significantly reshaped the spatial distribution of water yield by modifying surface runoff and infiltration *** study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield in the LRB,emphasizing the synergistic effects of climate change and land use change,which are pivota

关键词： Liaohe River Basin water yield Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model climate change land use cover change(LUCC)

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Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2018年第1期17卷 11-18页

作者： Haresh C.Shah Weimin Dong Pane Stojanovski Alex Chen Stanford University CA USA risk management Solutions Inc Newark CA USA Asia risk Transfer Solutions Pte Ltd Singapore DWMConsulting Palo Alto CA USA Institute for Catastrophe risk management Nanyang Technological University Singapore Cat risk Reasearch LLC-Cupertino CA USA

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and *** paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing finan

关键词： catastrophe risk management loss estimation risk modeling insurance for the masses

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Advancing the Field of Disaster Response management:Toward a Design Science Approach

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International Journal of Disaster risk Science 2021年第2期12卷 220-231页

作者： Tove Frykmer Henrik Tehler Christian Uhr Misse Wester Division of risk management and Societal Safety Lund University22100LundSweden Lund University Centre for risk Assessment and management(LUCRAM) 22100LundSweden

Multiorganizational response to emergencies and disasters requires *** to improve the collective response is therefore an essential question,but not easy to *** disaster research,normative research with a focus on providing evidence for how to improve professional practice has traditionally received less attention than explanatory *** aim of this article,using insights from design science where normative research is more common,is to suggest a complementary approach to response management *** approach,which combines experimental and explanatory research,is applied to a study of goal *** alignment among response actors is often recommended despite literature’s contradictory evidence regarding its *** conducted an experiment with 111 participants,who,in groups of three,played a computer game under one of two conditions(goal alignment or not).Our results show that aligning goals did not improve the outcome in the *** this may serve as a counterargument to implementing goal alignment interventions,there are concerns with such *** reservations include,but are not limited to,the lack of validated models to use in ***,our suggested research approach and the goal alignment experiment highlight the importance of testing interventions and their effectiveness before implementation.

关键词： Design science Disaster response management Experimental research Goal alignment

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