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An Agent-Based Model for Studying the Impact of Herd Mobility on the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Case of Rift Valley Fever (Ferlo Senegal)

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Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation 2014年第3期2卷 97-111页

作者： Python Ndekou T. Paul Alassane Bah Papa Ibrahima Ndiaye Jacques André Ndione CSE Dakar Senegal Esp-UCAD UMMISCO Dakar Senegal uad Bambey Senegal

Vector-borne diseases are highly sensitive to environment and to environmental changes. Rift Valley Fever (RFV) is a mosquito-borne zootic virus associated with severe diseases in human beings and economic consequences to livestock sector. Animal and human movements have a fundamental impact on RVF transmission. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the use of mathematics and agent based models to represent and analyze the dynamic of RFV transmission. However, no previous study has taken into consideration animal herds’ mobility and precipitation factors to understand the disease spread. This limitation underlines the necessity to use computational model approach based on multi-agent system in the study of vector-borne diseases transmission and diffusion. In this paper, a multi-agent system combining conceptual model expressiveness is used to study animal herds’ mobility and the precipitation parameter impact on the Rift Valley Fever outbreak in Ferlo Barkedji in Northern Senegal. Simulation scenarios with various parameters, including rain quality, hosts, vectors, camp dispersal around ponds, etc., are unrolled. The different results we have obtained show that the evolution of the number of infected hosts and infected vectors depend on the degree of animal herds’ mobility and on precipitations. Our model provides a framework that permits predicting the spread of the disease associated with the mobility of animal herds.

关键词： Vector-Borne Diseases Rift Valley Fever Multi-Agent System Diseases Modeling Agent Based

Analysis, Variability and Rainfall Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of the Lake Guiers in Senegal

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Open Journal of Ecology 2023年第11期13卷 806-819页

作者： Abdou Arame Fall Saidou Ndao Aba Diop UFR Sciences et Technologies (SET) University Iba Der Thiam of Thies (UIDT) Thies Senegal Laboratory of Water and Environment Sciences and Technologies (LaSTEE) Polytechnic School of Thies (EPT) Thies Senegal Statistics and Random Models Research Team (ERESMA) University Alione Diop (UAD) Bambey Senegal

The aim of this article is to predict the rainfall evolution of a sub-Saharan area in which one of the most important freshwater resources is located: Lake Guiers. Characterized by short seasonal rains of three months, it experienced a long period of drought in the 1970s. We begin by analyzing the temporal distribution of the rainfall including the variability of the data, with a view to predicting a possible return. For this reason, we present here univariate modeling results of rainfall series collected on three stations in the area. The challenge lies in the adequacy of the parameters for the monthly rainfall series, which generates more or less significant forecast errors on the learning bases because of the missing data. This later motivated their conversion to moving average series. On the other hand, the normality of the latter seems to be rejected by the D’Agostino test. Student’s and Mann-Whitney’s tests confirmed the homogeneity. The autocorlograms show the presence of autoregressive terms in the data. Dickey-Fuller and Mann-Kendall tests reveal both trend and seasonality. The stationarity tests of Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and KPSS have shown that they are non-stationary. As a result, we did an ARIMA modeling method using the Box-Jenkins [1] method with the R software, which involves estimating model parameters, tests of significance, analysis of residualss, selection according to information criteria and forecasts. The results obtained during the learning-test phase showed a quasi-similarity of the base-tests in all the series except for that of Louga.

关键词： Time Series Rain Trend Stationarity Residuals Model Forecast

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魔方——萧山科技城创业谷

中国建筑装饰装修 2021年第10期 75-79页

作者：陈建陈璐洪筱荃俞国民陶竞进黄武尹雄孟亮寿辰星汪波吴彩飞张敏敏姜浩杨欣莫云菲赵强浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司(uad)

浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司始建于1953年,前身为浙江大学建筑设计室,国家重点高校中最早成立的甲级设计研究院之一。以"营造和谐、放眼国际、产学研创、高精专强"为办院方针,以"高品位的文化,高宽远的视野,高效能的管理,高素质的人...

浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司始建于1953年,前身为浙江大学建筑设计室,国家重点高校中最早成立的甲级设计研究院之一。以"营造和谐、放眼国际、产学研创、高精专强"为办院方针,以"高品位的文化,高宽远的视野,高效能的管理,高素质的人才,高精专的技术,高质量的作品"为发展战略,以"平衡建筑"学术理论指导设计实践,多年来始终坚持走创作路线和精品路线,在各个领域均有大量的优秀作品问世。历年来共获得近1500项国家、部、省级优秀设计奖、国际设计奖、优质工程奖及科技成果奖等。

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中共诸暨县“一大”红色教育基地

当代建筑 2023年第3期 118-125页

作者：莫洲瑾赵强(摄影) uad 9+studio 浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司建筑九院(9+studio) 浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司

1记忆之所:在可感知的“情境”中建构当下的、鲜活的、有情感的记忆中共诸暨县“一大”红色教育基地是为庆祝中国共产党诸暨县第一次代表大会及会址而建。原会址门前是当地著名的“滴水崖”景观,而崖壁又被巧借为原会址的一面墙,新建建... 详细信息

1记忆之所:在可感知的“情境”中建构当下的、鲜活的、有情感的记忆中共诸暨县“一大”红色教育基地是为庆祝中国共产党诸暨县第一次代表大会及会址而建。原会址门前是当地著名的“滴水崖”景观,而崖壁又被巧借为原会址的一面墙,新建建筑转译这些空间意象并重构叙事逻辑,以斜墙水幕为建筑叙事前言,采用一组红色水洗石片墙为线索,引导全过程多样情境的观览体验。

关键词：诸暨县空间意象叙事逻辑新建建筑可感知情境会址

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枫桥古镇更新

当代建筑 2023年第3期 126-131页

作者：莫洲瑾曹震宇赵强山嵩(摄影) uad 9+studio 浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司建筑九院(9+studio) 浙江大学建筑设计研究院有限公司

枫桥镇是位于浙江省诸暨市的一座千年古镇,钟灵毓秀,人文荟萃,红色文化得天独厚--毛泽东同志曾亲笔批示“枫桥经验”;习近平总书记指出,要求把“枫桥经验”坚持好、发展好。现存古镇核心区面积为11.5 hm²,以宋时市集繁华的“十字老街”... 详细信息

枫桥镇是位于浙江省诸暨市的一座千年古镇,钟灵毓秀,人文荟萃,红色文化得天独厚--毛泽东同志曾亲笔批示“枫桥经验”;习近平总书记指出,要求把“枫桥经验”坚持好、发展好。现存古镇核心区面积为11.5 hm²,以宋时市集繁华的“十字老街”为架构,坊巷里弄纵横交织,粉墙黛瓦古韵犹存。虽然其格局完整,但历史风貌凋零破败,市政设施难以承载市民的现代生活,民生亟待改善,生态亟待优化。

关键词：枫桥经验粉墙黛瓦历史风貌浙江省诸暨市枫桥镇亲笔批示市政设施核心区面积

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