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How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus in North America？

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Current Zoology 2011年第5期57卷 648-654页

作者： Jim GRAHAM Catherine JARNEVICH Nick YOuNG Greg NEWMAN Thomas sTOHLGREN Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523-1499 USA fort collins science center U.S. Geological Survey 2150 Centre Ave. Building C Fort Collins CO 80526 USA

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of spe- cies. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to st. Lou.s. Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important in-formation for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species [Current Zoology 57 （5）： 648--654, 2011].

关键词： Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus Maxent Climate change Distribution model

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

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Frontiers of Earth science 2014年第4期8卷 457-471页

作者： shuyan LIu Xin-Zhong LIANG Wei GAO Thomas J. sTOHLGREN Earth system science Interdisciplinary center University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA Department of Ecosystem science and sustainability Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523 USA fort collins science center U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins CO 80526 USA

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the united states, and then compared the models with inpu.s.from a General Circulation Model （hereafter GCM-based models） and a downscaled Regional Climate Model （hereafter, RCM-based models）. We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present （1990-1999） to the future （2046- 2055）. RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM- based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa （Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk）, GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inpu.s. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

关键词： climate change species distribution model,Maxent downscaling

Moisture and temperature controls on nitrification differ among ammonia oxidizer communities from three alpine soil habitats

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Frontiers of Earth science 2016年第1期10卷 1-12页

作者： Brooke B. OsBORNE Jill s. BARON Matthew D. WALLENsTEIN Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523 USA Present address: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Brown University Providence RI 02912 USA u.s. geological survey fort collins science center Fort Collins CO 80526 USA Department of Ecosystem science and sustainability Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523 USA

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of biogeochemical fluxes in many high- elevation ecosystems. The consequent changes in alpine nitrification rates have the potential to influence ecosystem scale responses. In order to better understand how changing temperature and moisture conditions may influence ammonia oxidizers and nitrification activity, we conducted laboratory incubations on soils collected in a Colorado watershed from three alpine habitats （glacial outwash, talus, and meadow）. We found that bacteria, not archaea, dominated all ammonia oxidizer communities. Nitrification increased with moisture in all soils and under all temperature treatments. However, temperature was not correlated with nitrification rates in all soils. site-specific temperature trends suggest the development of generalist ammonia oxidzer communities in soils with greater in situ temperature fluctuations and specialists in soils with more steady temperature regimes. Rapidly increasing tempera- tures and changing soil moisture conditions could explain recent observations of increased nitrate production in some alpine soils.

关键词： ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) ammo-nia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) global change Loch Valewatershed nitrification thermal adaptation

A Web-Based Application for Exploring Potential Changes in Design Peak Flow of us urban Areas Driven by Land Cover Change

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Journal of Remote Sensing

Journal of Remote sensing 2023年第1期3卷 125-137页

作者： Kul Khand Gabriel B.senay AsRC Federal Data solutions Contractor to U.S.Geological Survey(USGS)Earth Resources Observation and Science(EROS)CenterSioux FallsSD 57198USA u.s.geological survey(usGs)Earth Resources Observation and science(EROs)center North Central Climate Adaptation Science CenterFort CollinsCO 80523USA

Floods have become increasingly prominent in recent decades causing devastating effects on lives and livelihoods *** tools to assess the drivers of floods,such as increasing urbanization,could help to minimize flood *** increases the design peak flow(maximum potential surface water flow from a precipitation event with an average probability of occurring once in a specific recurrence interval),which is a key information needed for designing stormwater management infrastructures such as culverts and storm sewers.A web-based application was developed to explore the potential changes(1985 to 2020)in design peak flow of urban areas across the conterminous united states driven by land cover *** results indicate a potential increase in design peak flow in urban areas up to 126.6% in 2020 compared to *** the total 3,535 study urban areas,about 80%(2,840)urban areas increased design peak flow,and about 19%(654)decreased design peak flow.A general pattern of increasing design peak flow was observed during 1985 to 2010,and decreasing pattern was observed during 2010 to 2020,primarily driven by respective increasing(decreasing)and decreasing(increasing)developed areas(croplands).The application provides crucial information by visualizing both spatial and temporal data that could be useful for decision-makers in developing and improving urban stormwater management plans and policies for efficient resource allocations and reducing flood risks.

关键词： storm flood floods

Ecological correlates of invasion impact for Burmese pythons in Florida

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Integrative Zoology 2012年第3期7卷 254-270页

作者： Robert N.REED John D.WILLsON Gordon H.RODDA Michael E.DORCAs us geological survey Fort Collins Science CenterFort CollinsColorado Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia TechBlacksburgVirginia Department of Biology Davidson CollegeDavidsonNorth CarolinaUSA

An invasive population of Burmese pythons(Python molurus bivittatus)is established across several thousand square kilometers of southern Florida and appears to have caused precipitous population declines among several species of native *** has this giant snake had such great success as an invasive species when many established reptiles have failed to spread?We scored the Burmese python for each of 15 literature-based attributes relative to predefined comparison grou.s.from a diverse range of taxa and provide a review of the natural history and ecology of Burmese pythons relevant to each *** focused on attributes linked to spread and magnitude of impacts rather than establishment *** results suggest that attributes related to body size and generalism appeared to be particularly applicable to the Burmese python’s success in *** attributes with the highest scores were:high reproductive potential,low vulnerability to predation,large adult body size,large offspring size and high dietary ***,attributes of ectotherms in general and pythons in particular(including predatory mode,energetic efficiency and social interactions)might have also contributed to invasion *** establishment risk assessments are an important initial step in prevention of new establishments,evaluating species in terms of their potential for spreading widely and negatively impacting ecosystems might become part of the means by which resource managers prioritize control efforts in environments with large numbers of introduced species.

关键词： body size Burmese python Florida invasive species Python molurus

Reimagining large river management using the Resist-Accept-Direct(RAD)framework in the upper Mississippi River

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Ecological Processes 2023年第1期12卷 645-664页

作者： Nicole K.Ward Abigail J.Lynch Erik A.Beever Joshua Booker Kristen L.Bouska Holly Embke Jeffrey N.Houser John F.Kocik Joshua Kocik David J.Lawrence Mary Grace Lemon Doug Limpinsel Madeline R.Magee Bryan M.Maitland Owen McKenna Andrew Meier John M.Morton Jeffrey D.Muehlbauer Robert Newman Devon C.Oliver Heidi M.Rantala Greg G.sass Aaron shultz Laura M.Thompson Jennifer L.Wilkening Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Lake CityMN 55041USA u.s.geological survey National Climate Adaptation Science CenterRestonVA 22041USA u.s.geological survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science CenterBozemanMT 59715USA Department of Ecology Montana State UniversityBozemanMT 59715USA u.s.Fish and Wildlife service National Wildlife Refuge SystemOak HarborOH 43449USA u.s.geological survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences CenterLa CrosseWI 54603USA u.s.geological survey Midwest Climate Adaptation Science CenterSt.PaulMN 55108USA NOAA NEFsC OronoME 04473USA university of Nebraska-Lincoln LincolnNE 68503USA National Park service Climate Change Response ProgramFort CollinsCO 80525USA u.s.Fish and Wild-life service National Wildlife Refuge SystemBloomingtonMN 55437USA Habitat Conservation Division NOAAAlaska RegionAnchorageAK 99513USA Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources MadisonWI 53703USA Aquatic sciences center Center for LimnologyUW-MadisonMadisonWI 53706USA u.s.geological survey Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center and Midwest Climate Adaptation Science CenterJamestownND 58401USA u.s.Army Corps of Engineers La CrescentMN 55947USA Alaska Wildlife Alliance AnchorageAK 99520USA u.s.geological survey Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAK 99775USA university of North Dakota Grand ForksND 58202USA Minnesota Department of Natural Resources DuluthMN 55804USA Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Boulder JunctionWI 54512USA Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission(GLIFWC) OdanahWI 54861USA u.s.geological survey National Climate Adaptation Science Centerand School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN 37996USA u.s.Fish and Wildlife service National Wildlife Refuge SystemFort CollinsCO 80526USA

Background Large-river decision-makers are charged with maintaining diverse ecosystem services through unprec-edented social-ecological transformations as climate change and other global stressors *** interconnected,dendritic habitats of rivers,which often demarcate jurisdictional boundaries,generate complex management ***,we explore how the Resist–Accept–Direct(RAD)framework may enhance large-river management by promoting coordinated and deliberate responses to social-ecological trajectories of *** RAD frame-work identifies the full decision space of potential management approaches,wherein managers may resist change to maintain historical conditions,accept change toward different conditions,or direct change to a specified future with novel *** the upper Mississippi River system,managers are facing social-ecological transformations from more frequent and extreme high-water *** illustrate how RAD-informed basin-,reach-,and site-scale decisions could:(1)provide cross-spatial scale framing;(2)open the entire decision space of potential management approaches;and(3)enhance coordinated inter-jurisdictional management in response to the trajectory of the upper Mississippi River *** The RAD framework helps identify plausible long-term trajectories in different reaches(or subbasins)of the river and how the associated social-ecological transformations could be managed by altering site-scale *** reach-scale objectives may reprioritize how,where,and when site conditions could be altered to contribute to the basin goal,given the basin’s plausible trajectories of change(e.g.,by coordinating action across sites to alter habitat connectivity,diversity,and redundancy in the river mosaic).Conclusions When faced with long-term systemic transformations(e.g.,>50 years),the RAD framework helps explicitly consider whether or when the basin vision or goals may no longer be achievable,and direct options may open y

关键词： Ecosystem Management Transformation social-ecological system Anthropocene Climate change Basin planning Cross-scale interactions

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An intercontinental comparison of insect seed predation between introduced and native oaks

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Integrative Zoology 2022年第2期17卷 217-230页

作者： Xin suN Haidong LI Aibing ZHANG AnikóHIRKA György CsÓKA Ian s.PEARsE Marcel HOLYOAK Zhishu XIAO state Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Institute of Physical science and Information Technology Anhui University111 Jiulong RoadHefeiAnhuiChina university of Chinese Academy of sciences BeijingChina College of Life sciences Capital Normal UniversityBeijingChina Department of Forest Protection NARIC Forest Research InstituteHungary u.s.geological survey Fort Collins Science CenterFort CollinsCOUSA Department of Environmental science and Policy University of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA

Novel interactions between introduced oaks and their natural enemies across different continents provide an opportunity to test the enemy release hypothesis(ERH)at local and global *** on the ERH,we assessed the impacts of native seed-feeding insects on introduced and native oaks within and among *** combined a common-garden experiment in China and biogeographic literature surveys to measure seed predation by insects and the proportion of acorn embryos surviving after insect infestation among 4 oak species with different geographical origins:Quercus mongolica origin from China,*** and *** from Europe,and *** from North *** supporting the ERH,oaks in introduced continents escaped seed predation compared to those in native continents and compared to other native oaks in introduced ***-garden comparisons showed that total acorn infestation rate of introduced ***(section Lobatae)was considerably lower than that of native oaks(section Quercus)in China and Europe,likely because of the differences in seed traits associated with different oak *** surveys showed that seed predation of introduced oaks was lower in the introduced continent than in the native *** survival was higher in introduced *** than native oaks in China and ***,insect seed predation of recently introduced *** in China was similar to that in Europe,which is not consistent with the *** results suggest that reduced acorn attack by native insects and higher embryo survival after acorn damage could increase the establishment success or invasion risk of introduced oaks in non-native continents.

关键词： acorn performance common garden plant-herbivore interactions species introduction the enemy release hypothesis

GsTARs computer models and their applications, part I:theoretical development

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International Journal of sediment Research 2008年第3期23卷 197-211页

作者： Chih Ted YANG Francisco J. M. sIMEs Borland Prof. of Water Resources and Director of Hydroscience and Training center Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523-1372 U. S. A. Research Hydrologist US Geological Survey Geomorphology and Sediment Transport Laboratory 4620 Technology Drive Suite 400 Golden CO 80403 U. S. A.

GsTARs is a series of computer models developed by the u.s. Bureau of Reclamation for alluvial river and reservoir sedimentation studies while the authors were employed by that agency. The first version of GsTARs was released in 1986 using fortran IV for mainframe computers. GsTARs 2.0 was released in 1998 for personal computer application with most of the code in the original GsTARs revised, improved, and expanded using fortran IV/77. GsTARs 2.1 is an improved and revised GsTARs 2.0 with graphical user interface. The unique features of all GsTARs models are the conjunctive use of the stream tube concept and of the minimum stream power theory. The application of minimum stream power theory allows the determination of optimum channel geometry with variable channel width and cross-sectional shape. The use of the stream tube concept enables the simulation of river hydraulics using one-dimensional numerical solutions to obtain a semi-two-dimensional presentation of the hydraulic conditions along and across an alluvial channel. According to the stream tube concept, no water or sediment particles can cross the walls of stream tubes, which is valid for many natural rivers. At and near sharp bends, however, sediment particles may cross the boundaries of stream tubes. GsTARs3, based on fortRAN 90/95, addresses this phenomenon and further expands the capabilities of GsTARs 2.1 for cohesive and non-cohesive sediment transport in rivers and reservoirs. This paper presents the concepts, methods, and techniqu.s.used to develop the GsTARs series of computer models, especially GsTARs3.

关键词： Numerical modeling sediment transport Backwater computations stream tubes stream power minimization

动态88小时:美国地质调查局国家地震信息中心对2011年3月11日M_W9.0日本地震的响应

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国际地震动态 2011年第8期32卷 1-15页

作者： Gavin P Hayes Paul s Earle Harley M Benz David J Wald Richard W Briggs 左玉玲（译）郑需要（校） u.s. geological survey National Earthquake Information center Golden Colorado U. S. A. synergetics Inc. Fort Collins Colorado U. S. A. 中国地震局地球物理研究所

引言2011年3月11日日本本州岛东海岸附近海域发生的M9．0地震（Tohoku earthquake，以下称“东日本大地震”——译者注）及其引发的海啸造成数以万计的人员死亡，造成的财产损失可能超过1万亿美元，这是有历史记录以来最严重的自然灾害... 详细信息

引言2011年3月11日日本本州岛东海岸附近海域发生的M9．0地震（Tohoku earthquake，以下称“东日本大地震”——译者注）及其引发的海啸造成数以万计的人员死亡，造成的财产损失可能超过1万亿美元，这是有历史记录以来最严重的自然灾害之一。

关键词：美国地质调查局大地震日本信息中心小时人员死亡财产损失自然灾害