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Estimating effective reproduction number using generation time versus serial interval,with application to COVID-19 in the Greater toronto Area,Canada

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 889-896页

作者： Jesse Knight Sharmistha Mishra Institute of Medical Science University of TorontoCanada MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions Unity Health TorontoCanada Division of Infectious Disease Department of MedicineUniversity of TorontoCanada Institute of Health Policy Management and EvaluationDalla Lana School of Public HealthUniversity of TorontoCanada

*** effective reproduction number Re(t)is a critical measure of epidemic ***(t)can be calculated in near real time using an incidence time series and the generation time distribution:the time between infection events in an infector-infectee *** calculating Re(t),the generation time distribution is often approximated by the serial interval distribution:the time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee ***,while generation time must be positive by definition,serial interval can be negative if transmission can occur before symptoms,such as in COVID-19,rendering such an approximation improper in some *** developed a method to infer the generation time distribution from parametric definitions of the serial interval and incubation period *** then compared estimates of Re(t)for COVID-19 in the Greater toronto Area of Canada using:negative-permitting versus non-negative serial interval distributions,versus the inferred generation time *** estimated the generation time of COVID-19 to be Gamma-distributed with mean 3.99 and standard deviation 2.96 *** to the generation time distribution,non-negative serial interval distribution caused overestimation of Re(t)due to larger mean,while negative-permitting serial interval distribution caused underestimation of Re(t)due to larger *** of the generation time distribution of COVID-19 with non-negative or negative-permitting serial interval distributions when calculating Re(t)may result in over or underestimation of transmission potential,respectively.

关键词： Reproduction number Generation time Serial interval Incubation period COVID-19

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater toronto Area, Canada

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Journal of China University of Geosciences 2004年第3期15卷 275-282页

作者： ChengQiuming ZhangGeorge LuCindy KoConnie DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericScience DepartmentofGeographyYorkWniversityTorontoOnt.M3J1P3Canada OntarioMinistryofEnvironment TorontoCanada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defined from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into 'drainage-area dependent' and 'drainage-area independent' flow components by two-step 'frequency' and 'spatial' analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages

关键词： GIS drainage system water flow precipitation flowing wells prediction.

Is Evidence-Based Conservation Applied in Urban Forestry? A Case Study from toronto, Canada

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Open Journal of Forestry 2014年第1期4卷 28-33页

作者： Adam R. Martin W. Eric Davies Danijela Puric-Mladenovic Sandy M. Smith Faculty of Forestry University of Toronto Earth Sciences Building Toronto Canada Faculty of Forestry University of Toronto Earth Sciences Building Toronto Canada Information Management and Spatial Analysis Southern Science and Information Section Ministry of Natural Resources Peterborough Canada

Evidence-based conservation seeks to incorporate sound scientific information into environmental decision making. The application of this concept in urban forest management has tremendous potential, but to date has been little applied, largely because existing scientific studies emphasize the importance of urban forests in large-scale ecological and anthropogenic processes, but in practice, scientific evidence is ostensibly incorporated into North American urban forest management only when deciding the fate of individual trees. Even under these disjunctive conditions, the degree to which evidence influences tree-level decisions remains debatable. In analyzing preliminary data from a case study from toronto, Canada, we sought to test if and how scientific evidence factored into the decision to remove or preserve 53 trees, located in close proximity to a provincially significant area of natural and scientific interest (ANSI). We found that by far the strongest tree-level correlate of the recommendation to remove or preserve trees was whether or not an individual tree was in conflict with proposed development. In comparison, species identity, tree condition, and suitability for conservation were statistically unrelated to the final recommendation. Our findings provide the basis to expand our analysis to multiple case studies across Canada, and internationally. Furthermore, when interpreted with available research and policy, our preliminary (and future) analysis highlights clear opportunities where scientific evidence can and should be readily incorporated into urban forestry management and policy.

关键词： ANSI Arboriculture Black Oak Evidence-Based Conservation Land Use Planning toronto Tree Bylaw Urban Forestry Urban Forest Policy

Training in translational research for graduate students at the University of toronto

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中国病理生理杂志 2009年第11期25卷 2242-2242页

作者： Ori D. Rotstein Institute of Medical Science University of Toronto

The Institute of Medical Science (IMS) was established as an institute within the School of Graduate Studies at the University of toronto in 1968 to serve as a graduate unit for the Clinical Departments in the Faculty of Medicine. In this role,the IMS offers a doctoral stream program in medical science leading to the Master of Science and Doctor of Philosophy degrees. Translational research,as a means of moving new discovery to improvement in patient outcome,has become a central theme of graduate education in our Institute. To this end,we have developed a curriculum offering which is intended to provide all new students with a defined skill set relevant to Translational Research and at the same time,to provide students with flexible offerings which would enhance their specific research programs. The course,spread over two years,will have three separate components:(1) there will be lectures focusing on research fundamentals and the basics of translational research; (2) there will be student presentations to hone presentation skills and get valuable feedback from fellow students and faculty mentors; (3) there will be elective modules,where students can select from a number of course offerings in order to round out training. These modules include subjects such as the fundamentals of clinical trials,the basics of qualitative research,an approach to the role of proteomics and genomics in research and the business of science. As part of this modular program,we have created a program 'clinical exposure for non-clinicians' with the hope that graduate students will be able to gain some understanding of the clinical relevance of their research activities. Over time,these modular offerings will be expanded based on a needs assessment from our students. The presentation will describe the IMS and its mission and will overview the structure and content of this course offering.

关键词：研究生教育多伦多大学转化型训练医学科学博士学位医学院硕士学位

Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for toronto,Ontario,and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 83-93页

作者： Pei Yuan Elena Aruffo Yi Tan Liu Yang Nicholas HOgden Aamir Fazil Huaiping Zhu Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Centre for Diseases ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoONCanada Public Health Agency of Canada(PHAC) OttawaONCanada

At the end of 2021,with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant,testing centers in Canada were *** alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity,many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests,making the count of new cases *** designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines,social behaviours,booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant *** better describe the testing eligibility,we considered the population divided into high risk and non-highrisk *** model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9,2022,on cases and severe outcomes in Canada,the province of Ontario and City of *** conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity,self testing,different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe *** results show that the total number of cases in Canada,Ontario and toronto are 2.34(95%CI:1.22e3.38),2.20(95%CI:1.15e3.72),and 1.97(95%CI:1.13e3.41),times larger than reported cases,*** current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions,such as limited capacity in public spaces,are *** more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes;however,if PCR test capacity is insufficient,then it is important to promote self ***,we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections,peaking in late March or April *** and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus.

关键词： PCR testing Self-testing Booster dose Social behavior Mathematical model COVID-19 Omicron Exit strategy

Corrigendum to“Estimating effective reproduction number using generation time versus serial interval,with application to covid-19 in the Greater toronto Area,Canada”[Infectious Disease Modelling 5(2020)889e896]

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第4期7卷 777-777页

In the originally published version of this work,the parametersθ^(*)=[a,b]were calculated incorrectly because the Kullback-Leibler divergence was defined in the wrong direction in our *** impact on generation time parameters and statistics is as follows(original/fixed):shape(a):1.813/1.633,scale(b):2.199/2.498,mean:3.99/4.08,SD:2.96/*** qualitative interpretation of results is *** sincerely apologize for this *** error correction is shown here:https://***/mishra-lab/covid-r/commit/aaef512 and a corrected draft manuscript is shown here.

关键词： unchanged qualitative correction

Glia-to-neuron reprogramming to the rescue?

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第5期20卷 1395-1396页

作者： Jack W.Hickmott Cindi M.Morshead Department of Surgery University of TorontoTorontoONCanada Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research TorontoONCanada Institute of Biomedical Engineering University of TorontoTorontoONCanada The KITE Research Institute Toronto Rehabilitation InstituteUniversity Health NetworkTorontoONCanada

Over the last two decades,the dogma that cell fate is immutable has been increasingly challenged,with important implications for regenerative *** brea kth rough discovery that induced pluripotent stem cells could be generated from adult mouse fibroblasts is powerful proof that cell fate can be *** exciting extension of the discovery of cell fate impermanence is the direct cellular reprogram ming hypothesis-that terminally differentiated cells can be reprogrammed into other adult cell fates without first passing through a stem cell state.

关键词： programming passing proof

A functional tacrolimus-releasing nerve wrap for enhancing nerve regeneration following surgical nerve repair

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第1期20卷 291-304页

作者： Simeon C.Daeschler Katelyn J.W.So Konstantin Feinberg Marina Manoraj Jenny Cheung Jennifer Zhang Kaveh Mirmoeini JPaul Santerre Tessa Gordon Gregory HBorschel SickKids Research Institute Neuroscience and Mental Health ProgramTorontoONCanada Institute of Biomaterials and Biomedical Engineering University of TorontoTorontoONCanada Indiana University School of Medicine IndianapolisINUSA Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery the Hospital for Sick ChildrenTorontoONCanada Translational Biology and Engineering Program Ted Rogers Centre for Heart ResearchInstitute of Biomedical EngineeringFaculty of DentistryUniversity of TorontoTorontoONCanada

Axonal regeneration following surgical nerve repair is slow and often incomplete,resulting in poor functional recovery which sometimes contributes to lifelong ***,there are no FDA-approved therapies available to promote nerve *** accelerates axonal regeneration,but systemic side effects presently outweigh its potential benefits for peripheral nerve *** authors describe herein a biodegradable polyurethane-based drug delivery system for the sustained local release of tacrolimus at the nerve repair site,with suitable properties for scalable production and clinical application,aiming to promote nerve regeneration and functional recovery with minimal systemic drug *** is encapsulated into co-axially electrospun polycarbonate-urethane nanofibers to generate an implantable nerve wrap that releases therapeutic doses of bioactive tacrolimus over 31 *** and drug loading are adjustable for applications in small and large caliber nerves,and the wrap degrades within 120 days into biocompatible *** released from the nerve wrap promotes axon elongation in vitro and accelerates nerve regeneration and functional recovery in preclinical nerve repair models while off-target systemic drug exposure is reduced by 80%compared with systemic *** its surgical suitability and preclinical efficacy and safety,this system may provide a readily translatable approach to support axonal regeneration and recovery in patients undergoing nerve surgery.

关键词： biodegradable local drug delivery nerve injury nerve regeneration nerve wrap tacrolimus

Gradient‑Layered MXene/Hollow Lignin Nanospheres Architecture Design for Flexible and Stretchable Supercapacitors

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Nano-Micro Letters 2025年第2期17卷 447-462页

作者： Haonan Zhang Cheng Hao Tongtong Fu Dian Yu Jane Howe Kaiwen Chen Ning Yan Hao Ren Huamin Zhai Jiangsu Provincial Key Lab of Sustainable Pulp and Paper Technology and Biomass Materials NanJing Forestry UniversityNanjing 210037People’s Republic of China Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry University of Toronto200 College StreetTorontoON M5S 3E5Canada Department of Materials Science and Engineering University of Toronto184 College StreetTorontoON M5S 3E4Canada College of Materials Science and Engineering Nanjing Forestry UniversityNanjing 210037People’s Republic of China

With the rapid development of flexible wearable electronics,the demand for stretchable energy storage devices has *** this work,a novel gradient-layered architecture was design based on single-pore hollow lignin nanospheres(HLNPs)-intercalated two-dimensional transition metal carbide(Ti_(3)C_(2)T_(x) MXene)for fabricating highly stretchable and durable *** depositing and inserting HLNPs in the MXene layers with a bottom-up decreasing gradient,a multilayered porous MXene structure with smooth ion channels was constructed by reducing the overstacking of MXene ***,the micro-chamber architecture of thin-walled lignin nanospheres effectively extended the contact area between lignin and MXene to improve ion and electron accessibility,thus better utilizing the pseudocapacitive property of *** these strategies effectively enhanced the capacitive performance of the *** addition,HLNPs,which acted as a protective phase for MXene layer,enhanced mechanical properties of the wrinkled stretchable electrodes by releasing stress through slip and deformation during the stretch-release cycling and greatly improved the structural integrity and capacitive stability of the *** electrodes and symmetric flexible all-solid-state supercapacitors capable of enduring 600%uniaxial tensile strain were developed with high specific capacitances of 1273 mF cm^(−2)(241 F g^(−1))and 514 mF cm^(−2)(95 F g^(−1)),***,their capacitances were well preserved after 1000 times of 600%stretch-release *** study showcased new possibilities of incorporating biobased lignin nanospheres in energy storage devices to fabricate stretchable devices leveraging synergies among various two-dimensional nanomaterials.

关键词： Hollow lignin nanospheres MXene Gradient-layered architecture Wrinkled electrodes Stretchable supercapacitors