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Construction and Application of a Regional Kilometer-Scale Carbon Source and Sink Assimilation Inversion System(CCMVS-R)

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Engineering 2024年第2期33卷 263-275页

作者： Lifeng Guo Xiaoye Zhang Junting Zhong Deying Wang Changhong Miao Licheng Zhao Zijiang Zhou Jie Liao Bo Hu Lingyun Zhu Yan Chen Monitoring and Assessment center for GHGs and Carbon Neutrality&Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Laboratory of climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality Henan UniversityZhengzhou 450001China National Meteorological Information center Beijing 100081China Shanxi Meteorological Administration Taiyuan 030002China Shanxi Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences Taiyuan 030002China Jiangsu Provincial climate center Nanjing 210000China

CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s *** the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate *** 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by *** commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)*** MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in ***,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of ***,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)*** China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon *** CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to

关键词： CCMVS-R Regional carbon assimilation system Anthropogenic carbon emissions CO_(2) POD 4DVar

Relationship between the Stratospheric Arctic Vortex and Surface Air Temperature in the Midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 39-52页

作者： Xue RAN Dingzhu HU Yang ZHANG Mei-Chen LIU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023

It is known that different relationships exist between the strength and displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV),and the surface air temperature(SAT)patterns in Eurasia and North America,but the mechanisms behind these relationships remain unclear,especially on an interannual *** on empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis using NCEP reanalysis data over 1958–2018,this study attempts to ascertain the relationship between the SPV intensity and displacement over the Arctic and the SATs in the midlatitudes of the Northern *** results indicate that a strengthened SPV corresponds to an SAT increase in Eurasia and a decrease in eastern North America and *** the SPV is shifted towards Eurasia,however,a corresponding SAT increase occurs in both North America and Eurasia,with a larger increase in North America than in ***,a strengthened SPV tends to correspond to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation-like circulation in the troposphere with negative geopotential height(GH)anomalies in Greenland and eastern North American continent and positive GH anomalies to the north of 45°N in Eurasia,which corresponds to lower SATs in North America than in ***,when the SPV shifted towards Eurasia,it was accompanied by a positive Pacific/North American-like pattern with a deepened Aleutian low,which corresponds to the increasing SATs in North *** tropospheric circulation changes are related to the response of tropospheric planetary wave activity to the SPV.A strengthened SPV corresponds to the weakening of tropospheric planetary wave-1 waves,which is accompanied by a negative GH in North America but a positive GH in *** the SPV shifted towards Eurasia,the tropospheric planetary wave-1(-2)waves strengthened(weakened),and the combined effects of the planetary wave-1 and wave-2 waves would cause positive GH anomalies in both Eurasia and North America.

关键词： stratospheric polar vortex surface air temperature teleconnection patterns planetary waves

Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 21-27页

作者： Yinjun Zhang Lin Chen Yuqing Li Zi-An Ge Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分... 详细信息

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.

关键词：极端干旱中国东部归因分析人为强迫未来预估

Persistent greening against drying in northeast Asian semiarid grasslands:Asymmetrical responses of direct and legacy effects to intensified drought

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 9-20页

作者： Yu-Tong MA Hai-Shan CHEN Yao-Ming SONG Bo-Tao ZHOU Shan-Lei SUN Xin-Guan DU Yue SUN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Despite experiencing a decadal shift towards drought conditions at the end of the 2Oth century,semiarid grasslands in northeast Asia(NEA)exhibited an evident greening trend from 1982 to ***,the mechanism behind this phenomenon remains ***,we analysed the interdecadal changes in vegetation response to drought on the basis of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies LAI4g datasets,with an emphasis on the differences between direct and legacy effects(as measured by resilience),to explore the mechanism of persistent grassland *** revealed that during the post-drought shift period(2000-2020),the sudden decrease in the water content of the intermediate soil layer triggered an intensified vegetation response to ***,although direct effects and resilience were amplified,they exhibited asymmetric *** was stronger than direct effects,and this difference increased with increasing drought(drought recovery)*** combined effects may account for persistent greening against intensified drying in the semiarid grasslands in *** the projected exacerbation of future droughts,this study holds notable importance for comprehending the long-term change dynamics of dryland ecosystems.

关键词： Semiarid grassland Drought decadal shift Direct effect Legacy effect(resilience) Northeast Asia

climate change induced heat stress impact on workplace productivity in a net zero-carbon timber building towards the end of the century

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Building Simulation 2024年第6期17卷 893-906页

作者： Deepak Amaripadath Mattheos Santamouris Shady Attia School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning Arizona State UniversityTempeAZUSA Urban climate Research center Arizona State UniversityTempeAZUSA School of Built Environment University of New South Wales2052SydneyAustralia Sustainable Building Design Lab Department of UEEFaculty of Applied SciencesUniversity of Liege4000LiegeBelgium

Changing climate intensifies heat stress,resulting in a greater risk of workplace productivity decline in timber office buildings with low internal thermal *** impact of climate change induced heat exposure on indoor workplace productivity in timber office buildings has not been extensively ***,further investigation to reduce the work capacity decline towards the end of the century is ***,heat exposure in a net zero-carbon timber building near Brussels,Belgium,was evaluated using a reproducible comparative approach with different internal thermal mass *** analysis indicated that strategies with increased thermal mass were more effective in limiting the effects of heat exposure on workplace *** medium and high thermal mass strategies reduced workplace productivity loss to 0.1%in the current,0.3%and 0.2%in the midfuture,and 4.9%and 3.9%for future *** comparison,baseline with low thermal mass yielded a decline of 2.3%,3.3%,and 8.2%.The variation in maximum and minimum wet-bulb globe temperatures were also lower for medium and high thermal mass strategies than for low thermal mass *** study findings lead to the formulation of design guidelines,identification of research gaps,and recommendations for future work.

关键词： heat exposure office buildings work capacity thermal mass climate change

Impacts of Roof/Ground Mitigation Strategies on Improving the Urban Thermal Environment and Human Comfort over the Yangtze River Delta, China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 108-125页

作者： Hongyun MA Mi ZHANG Haishan CHEN Yan WANG Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 Experimental Teaching center for Meteorology and Environment Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

The combined effects of global warming and the urban heat islands exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress. It is crucial to implement effective cooling measures in urban areas to improve the comfort of the thermal environment. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF), coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model(UCM), was used to study the impact of heat mitigation strategies. In addition, a 5-km resolution land-cover dataset for China(ChinaLC), which is based on satellite remote sensing data, was adjusted and used, and 18 groups of numerical experiments were designed, to increase the albedo and vegetation fraction of roof/ground parameters. The experiments were conducted for four heatwave events that occurred in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China. The simulated results demonstrated that, for the single roof/ground schemes, the mitigation effects were directly proportional to the albedo and greening. Among all the experimental schemes, the superposed schemes presented better cooling effects. For the ground greening scheme, with similar net radiation flux and latent heat flux, its storage heat was lower than that of the roof greening scheme, resulting in more energy flux into the atmosphere, and its daytime cooling effect was not as good as that of the roof greening scheme. In terms of human thermal comfort(HTC), the improvement achieved by the ground greening scheme was better than any other single roof/ground schemes, because the increase in the relative humidity was small. The comprehensive evaluation of the mitigation effects of different schemes on the thermal environment presented in this paper provides a theoretical basis for improving the urban environment through rational urban planning and construction.

关键词： urban heat island human thermal comfort urban canopy mitigation strategies Yangtze River Delta Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF) Urban Canopy Model(UCM)

Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis:The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 894-914页

作者： Zixu WANG Shirui YAN Jinggao HU Jiechun DENG Rongcai REN Jian RAO Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and ***-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic ***,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),*** onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight *** contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO *** pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–***,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on *** three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.

关键词： CRA-40 ERA-5 MERRA-2 Arctic stratosphere the QBO

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International center for climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

Record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged Temperature(CMST) Dataset

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 369-376页

作者： Zichen LI Qingxiang LI Tianyi CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disasters SUN Yat-Sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Research center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering(Guangdong Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.

关键词： CMST2.0 global mean surface temperature record-breaking temperature El Ni?o