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The Performance of Downward Shortwave Radiation Products from Satellite and Reanalysis over the Transect of Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1574-1588,1671-1675页

作者： Jiajia JIA Zhaoiang ZENG Wenqian ZHANG Xiangdong ZHENG Yaqiang WANG Minghu DING State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

The downward shortwave radiation(DSR) is an important part of the Earth's energy balance, driving Earth's system's energy, water, and carbon cycles. Due to the harsh Antarctic environment, the accuracy of DSR derived from satellite and reanalysis has not been systematically evaluated over the transect of Zhongshan station to Dome A, East ***, this study aims to evaluate DSR reanalysis products(ERA5-Land, ERA5, MERRA-2) and satellite products(CERES and ICDR) in this area. The results indicate that DSR exhibits obvious monthly and seasonal variations, with higher values in summer than in winter. The ERA5-Land(ICDR) DSR product demonstrated the highest(lowest) accuracy,as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.988(0.918), a root-mean-square error of 23.919(69.383) W m^(–2), a mean bias of –1.667(–28.223) W m^(–2) and a mean absolute error of 13.37(58.99) W m^(–2). The RMSE values for the ERA5-Land reanalysis product at seven stations, namely Zhongshan, Panda 100, Panda 300, Panda 400, Taishan, Panda 1100, and Kunlun, were 30.938, 29.447, 34.507, 29.110, 20.339, 17.267, and 14.700 W m–2, respectively;with corresponding bias values of 9.887, –12.159, –19.181, –15.519, –8.118, 6.297, and 3.482 W m^(–2). Regarding seasonality, ERA5-Land, ERA5,and MERRA-2 reanalysis products demonstrate higher accuracies during spring and summer, while ICDR products are least accurate in autumn. Cloud cover, water vapor, total ozone, and severe weather are the main factors affecting DSR. The error of DSR products is greatest in coastal areas(particularly at the Zhongshan station) and decreases towards the inland areas of Antarctica.

关键词： downward shortwave radiation East Antarctic reanalysis product satellite product validation

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Extraordinary hot extreme in summer 2022 over the Yangtze River basin modulated by the La Nina condition under global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 21-30页

作者： Zhen LIAO Yu-Feng YUAN Yang CHEN Pan-Mao ZHAI State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

A widespread and prolonged hot extreme hit the Yangtze River basin in summer 2022,with 300 sites established new temperature records and nearly 96%stations endured more than 40 hot *** the perspective of the combination effect of the global warming and La Nina condition,potential mechanisms of the hot extreme were *** a record-breaking hot extreme was caused by an extremely strong and westward-shifted western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).The global warming effect contributed primarily to the abnormal hot days in the Yangtze River basin,coupled with the modulation of the La Nina *** sea surface temperature anomaly pattern under La Nina condition favored more convection activities over the western Pacific,encouraging an enhanced and westward-extended *** addition,an observation-based attribution analysis indicates that anthropogenic warming may increase the probability of such extensively persistent hot extremeby1.8 times.

关键词： Hot extreme The Yangtze River basin Global warming Tropical Pacific forcing

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Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

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Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 343-374页

作者： Zengchao HAO Yang CHEN College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100081China

Compound extremes,whose socioeconomic and ecological impacts are severer than that caused by each event occurring in isolation,have evolved into a hot topic in Earth Science in the past *** the context of climate change,many compound extremes have exhibited increasing frequency and intensity,and shown novel fashions of combinations,posing more pressing demands and tougher challenges to scientific research and disaster prevention and *** article,via a perspective of multi-sphere interactions within the Earth System,systematically reviews the status quo,new scientific understanding,and deficiencies regarding the definition,mechanism,change,attribution,and projection of compound *** study also sorts out existing challenges and outlines a potential roadmap in advancing the study on compound extremes with respect to data requirement,mechanistic diagnosis,numerical modeling,attribution and projection,risk assessment,and adaptive *** directions of compound extremes studies and key research topics that warrant multi-disciplinary and multisectoral coordinated efforts are also *** that climate change has reshaped the type of extremes,a transformation from the traditional single-event perspective to a compound-event perspective is needed for scientific research,disaster prevention and mitigation,and climate change adaptation,calling for bottom-up innovation in research objects,ideas,and *** article will add value to promoting the research on compound extremes and interdisciplinary cooperations.

关键词： Extremes Compound extremes Climate change and risk Multi-sphere interactions

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Preface to the Special Issue:AI Applications in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science:Pioneering the Future(Part I)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1279-1280页

作者： Zhemin TAN key laboratory of Mesoscale severe weather Ministry of Educationand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China

As AI continues to establish itself as a cornerstone technology across various industries and scientific disciplines,its profound impact on atmospheric and oceanic science is becoming increasingly *** advantages of AI in surmounting obstacles within our field are undeniable,as evidenced by breakthroughs in weather forecasting(e.g.,Bi et al.,2023),climate prediction(e.g.,Ham et al.,2019),AI-based parameterization schemes(e.g.,Rasp et al.,2018;Wang and Tan,2023),and *** the transformative potential of AI in atmospheric and oceanic science,this special issue endeavors to explore the extensive applications of AI in our domain.

关键词： weather forecasting prediction

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Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 937-958页

作者： Feifei SHEN Aiqing SHU Zhiquan LIU Hong LI Lipeng JIANG Tao ZHANG Dongmei XU key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall key laboratory/Hubei key laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205China National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder 80307COUSA State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Meteorological Information Center Beijing 100081China Fujian key laboratory of severe weather and key laboratory of Straits severe weather China Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350001China

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection *** show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same *** general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI ***,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical *** typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper *** impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is *** the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

关键词： FY-4A AGRI radiance particle filter multiple typhoons data assimilation numerical weather prediction

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial key laboratory of Regional Numerical weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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The importance of data assimilation components for initial conditions and subsequent error growth

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 105-116页

作者： Zhongrui WANG Haohao SUN Lili LEI Zhe-Min TAN Yi ZHANG key laboratory of Mesoscale severe weather Ministry of Educationand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China

Despite a specific data assimilation method,data assimilation(DA)in general can be decomposed into components of the prior information,observation forward operator that is given by the observation type,observation error covariances,and background error *** a classic Lorenz model,the influences of the DA components on the initial conditions(ICs)and subsequent forecasts are systematically investigated,which could provide a theoretical basis for the design of DA for different scales of *** forecast errors undergo three typical stages:a slow growth stage from 0 h to 5 d,a fast growth stage from 5 d to around 15 d with significantly different error growth rates for ensemble and deterministic forecasts,and a saturation stage after 15 *** strategies that provide more accurate ICs can improve the *** assimilation is superior to offline assimilation,and a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix(Pf)provides better analyses than a static background error covariance matrix(B)for instantaneous observations and frequent time-averaged observations;but the opposite is true for infrequent time-averaged observations,since cycling simulation cannot construct informative priors when the model lacks predictive skills and the flow-dependent Pf cannot effectively extract information from low-informative observations as the static *** observations contain more information than time-averaged observations,thus the former is preferred,especially for infrequent observing ***,ensemble forecasts have advantages over deterministic forecasts,and the advantages are enlarged with less informative observations and lower predictive-skill model priors.

关键词： Data assimilation Atmospheric predictability Background error covariances Ensemble forecasts

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Co-influence of the start of thermal growing season and precipitation on vegetation spring green-up on the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 327-337页

作者： Chen-Peng WANG Meng-Tian HUANG Pan-Mao ZHAI State key laboratory of severe weather and Institute of Global Change and Polar Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The climate in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has undergone significant change in recent decades,mainly in thermal and water conditions,which plays a crucial role in phenological changes in vegetation spring ***,how the start of the thermal growing season(SOS-T)and the start of the rainy season(SORS)as key climatic factors affect vegetation green-up remains *** that these factors characterize thermal and water conditions required for vegetation green-up,this study investigated changes in the SOS-T and SORS from 1961 to 2022,using observation-based datasets with long time *** found that the SOS-T and SORS have advanced across the TP in 1961-2022 and have shown a spatial pattern of advancement in the east and delay in the west in ***,the co-effect of temperature and precipitation change on the start of vegetation growing season(SOS-V)in 2000-2022 was *** across TP,the SOS-V had an early onset of 1.3 d per decade during 2000-2022,corresponding to advanced SOS-T and ***,the SOS-V generally occurred nearly at the same time as the SOS-T in the high-altitude meadow region.A substantial delay in the SOS-V relative to the SOS-T was observed in the desert,shrub,grassland and forest regions and generally kept pace with the ***,for 50%of the vegetated regions on the TP,inter-annual variation in the delay in the SOS-V relative to the SOS-T was dominated by precipitation change,which was profound in warm-climate *** study highlights the co-regulation of precipitation and temperature change in the SOS-V in different vegetation cover regions in the TP,offering a scientific foundation for comprehending the impact of climate change and prospects for vegetation phenology on the TP.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Start of growing season Temperature Precipitation Climate change

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A microphysical investigation of different convective cells during the precipitation event with sustained high-resolution observations

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 279-295页

作者： Ziheng HUANG Zheng RUAN Debin SU State key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Electronic Engineering Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China key laboratory of Atmospheric Sounding China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610225China

The growth and breakup processes of raindrops within a cloud influence the rain intensity and the sizes of raindrops on the *** Doppler velocity spectrum acquired by a vertically pointing radar(VPR)contains information on atmospheric turbulence and the size classification of falling *** this study,the four types of Convective Cells(CC)during precipitation events with more than 700 mm of precipitation in southern China are *** characteristics of four types of CCs correspond to the isolated convection,the early stage,the mature stage,and the decline stage of organizational convection,in that *** analysis using retrieval of vertical air motion(Vair)and raindrop evolution in clouds from Doppler velocity spectra collected by C-band VPR revealed the growth and breakup of falling raindrops with dynamic *** raindrops appear in the early stages and are accompanied by ice particles,which are impacted by the falling path᾽s *** aggregation,which is primarily related to the alternation of updraft and downdraft,accounts for the mature stage᾽s high efficiency of surface *** CCs in the decline stage originate from the shallow uplift in the weak and broad downdraft under conditions of enough water *** updraft dominates the stage of isolated *** of convective cells could be more accurately represented in model evaluations.

关键词： cloud microphysics convective systems convective cell vertically pointing radar observations Doppler velocity spectrum

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