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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第4期11卷 812-840页

作者： Kombo Hamad Kai Sarah E. Osima Mtongori Habiba Ismail Pacal Waniha Hamad Asya Omar Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Kisauni Zanzibar Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the atmospheric events which may trigger/enhance the occurrence of disasters to the society in most world basins including the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO). This study analyzed the dynamics and the impacts of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Idai (4th-21st March, 2019) which devastated most of the SWIO countries. The study used the Reanalysis 1 products of daily zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), amount of Precipitable Water (PRW), and relative humidity (Rh). The dynamics and movements of Idai were analyzed using the wind circulation at 850, 700, 500 and 200 mb, where the TC dynamic variables like vertical wind shear, vorticity, and the mean zonal wind were calculated using u and v components. Using the open Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software the data was processed into three-time epochs of pre, during and post;and then analyzed to feature the state of the atmosphere before (pre), during and post TC Idai using all datasets. The amount of precipitable water was used to map the rainfall on pre, during, and post Idai as well as during its landfall. The results revealed that dynamics of TC Idai was intensifying the weather (over Mozambique) and clearing the weather equatorward or southward of 12

关键词： Tropical Cyclones Zonal and Meridional Winds Precipitable Water Vertical Wind Shear Low-Level Vorticity Water-Borne Diseases Deaths and Injuries

An Assessment of the Seasonal Rainfall and Its Societal Implications in Zanzibar Islands during the Season of October to December, 2019

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2020年第4期10卷 509-529页

作者： K. H. Kai A. L. Kijazi S. E. Osima Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Kisauni Zanzibar Tanzania tma Ubungo Plaza Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The assessment of the performance of the October to December (OND), 2019 rainfall season in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba) with reference to local downscaled Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) forecast, and regional (Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Center (IGAD-ICPAC) weather forecasts were assessed by comparing the long term average of OND rainfall data and previous OND rainfall seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 as well as extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during OND seasons of 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 and 2019 for Zanzibar. The study assessed zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds at 850 and 200 mb, monthly and dekadal sea surface temperature (SST);the Madden Julien Oscillations (MJO) forecast reports and the ocean heat content data. Both gridded and observed datasets were processed into dekadal, monthly and seasonal averages and then analysed. The results revealed that, based on the observations, above normal rainfall of 936 and 908 mm were reported at stations of Kisauni (Unguja) and Karume airport (Pemba) during 2019 OND season. This amount was the first and second ever recorded for the extreme positive IOD during OND seasons of 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 and 2019, and also the first for the previous higher OND rainfall seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 which was highly variable. Moreover, these values were second ever-recorded highest OND rainfall since 1916 to 2019 where the first one was observed in 1961. Furthermore, the results revealed that 2019 OND seasonal rainfall had the highest amount of contribution based on historical climatology. For instance, the 2019 OND rainfall for Kisauni, Pemba airport and Matangatuani contributed to 198%, 303% and 231% of the long term (1987-2016) mean OND rainfall in Zanzibar. Indeed, the results show that the presence of the MJO during OND and the enhanced positive IOD was among the causes for the observed wetness of the 2019 OND in Zanzibar and most parts of the country. Moreover,

关键词： OND Rainfall Forecast Performance Sea Surface Temperatures MJO and IOD

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Maize (Zea mays) Yield over Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 569-588页

作者： Amina Abdalla Lukali Sarah E. Osima Yunsheng Lou Kombo Hamad Kai Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Kisauni Zanzibar TMA Ubungo Plaza Dar es Salaam Tanzania Depertment of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

This study aimed at understanding the impacts of the seasonal hydroclimatic variables on maize yield and developing of statistical crop model for future maize yield prediction over Tanzania. The food security of the country is basically determined by availability of maize. Unfortunately, agriculture over the country is mainly rain fed hence highly endangered by the detrimental consequences of climate change and variability. Observed climate data was acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) and Maize yield data from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The study used the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope for trend and magnitude detection in minimum, maximum temperature and rainfall at the 95% confidence level. The results have shown that rainfall is decreasing over the country and especially during the growing season but increasing during short rains season. Characteristics of seasonal climatic variables, cycle during growing period were linked to maize yield, and high (low) yield was reported during anomalous wet (dry) growing seasons. This portrays seasonal dependence of maize production. Statistical crop model was built by aggregating spatial regions that have statistically significant relation with maize yield. Results show that, 58.8% of yield variance is linked to seasonal hydroclimate variability. Rainfall emerged as the dominant predictor variable for maize yield since it accounts for 44.1% of yield variance. The modeled and observed yields exhibit statistically substantial relationship (r = 0.78) hence depicting high credence of the built statistical crop model. Also, the results revealed a decreasing trend in Maize yield with further Lessing trend is projected to proceed in the future. This calls for adaptation and implementation of appropriate regional measures to raise maize production in order to feed the burgeoning human population amidst climate change.

关键词： Rainfall Temperature Climate Variability Maize Yield Maize Yield Projections Tanzania

Assessment of the Off-season Rainfall of January to February 2020 and Its Socio Economic Implications in Tanzania: A Case Study of the Northern Coast of Tanzania

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2021年第2期4卷 51-69页

作者： Kombo Hamad Kai Sarah E Osima Agnes Laurence Kijazi Mohammed Khamis Ngwali Asya Omar Hamad Tanzania Meteorological Authority(tma) Zanzibar P.O.Box 340 ZanzibarTanzania tma Dar es Salaam office P.O.Box 3056 Ubungo PlazaTanzania

This article examines the off season rainfall in northern coast Tanzania(NCT)including Zanzibar which occurred in January and February 2020(JF).Like the JF rainfalls of 2001,2004,2010,2016 and 2018,the JF(2020)rainfall was more unique in damages including loss of lives,properties and *** study used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to examine the cause of uniqueness of JF rainfall in 2001,2004,2010,2016,2018 and 2020 over NCT and *** datasets include monthly mean u,v wind at 850,700,500,and 200 mb;SSTs,mean sea level pressure(MSLP)anomalies,Dipole Mode Index(DMI),and monthly rainfall from NCT and Zanzibar *** were processed and calculated into long term,seasonal,and monthly averages,indeed,Precipitation Index(PI)was *** analysis between the rainfall(December to January),SST,DMI and 850 mb wind vectors;and long-term percentage contribution of investigated parameters was *** revealed significant positive and negative correlations between JF rainfall,SSTs and ***,JFs of 2004 and 2016 had higher rainfalls of 443 mm with percentage contribution of up to 406%,while January and February,2020 had the highest of 269.1 and 101.1mm in Zanzibar and 295 and 146.1 mm over and NCT areas,with highest January long-term rainfall contribution of 356%in Zanzibar and 526%over *** DJF(2019/20)had the highest rainfall record of 649.5 mm in Zanzibar contributing up to 286%,while JF 2000 rainfall had a good spatial and temporal distribution over most NCT ***,2020 rainfall had impacts of more than 20 people died in Lindi and several infrastructures including Kiyegeya Bridge in Morogoro were ***,more research works on understanding the dynamics of wet and dry JF seasons should be conducted.

关键词： Indian ocean dipole Dipole mode index(DMI) Sea surface temperatures(SSTs) Rainfall Relative humidity Correlations

The Influence of Climate Variability on the Watermelon Production in Zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2023年第1期13卷 44-61页

作者： Asya Omar Hamad Kombo Hamad Kai Agnes Kijazi Sara Abdalla Khamis Abdalla Hassan Abdalla Hassan Khatib Ame Masoud Makame Faki Faki Ali Ali Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Zanzibar Office Zanzibar Tanzania tma Dar es Salaam Office Dar es Salaam Tanzania The State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) Zanzibar Tanzania

Climate change and variability, has embarked societies in Zanzibar to rely on horticulture (i.e. watermelon production) as an adaptive measure due to an unpromising situation of commonly used agricultural yields. Currently, there is either no or scant information that describes the influence of climate changes and variability to watermelon production in Zanzibar. Thus, this study aimed to determine the influence of climate variability on the quantity of watermelon production in Zanzibar. The study used both primary and secondary datasets, which include the anecdotal information collected from interviewers’ responses from four districts of Unguja and Pemba, and climate parameters (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature (tmax and Tmin) acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) at Zanzibar offices. Pearson correlation was used for analyzing the association between watermelon production and climate parameters, while paired t-test was applied to show the significance of the mean differences of watermelon and climate parameters for two periods of 2014-2017 and 2018-2021, respectively. Percentage changes were used to feature the extent to which the two investigated parameters affect each other. The anecdotal responses were sorted, calculated in monthly and seasonal averages, plotted and then analyzed. Results have shown a strong correlation (r = 0.8 at p ≤ 0.02, and r = 0.7) between watermelon production, tmax and rainfall during OND, especially in Unguja, as well as Tmin during JJA (i.e. r = - 0.8 at p ≤ 0.02) in Pemba. Besides, results have shown the existence of significant differences between the means of watermelon production and climate parameter for the two stated periods, indicating that the climate parameters highly affects the watermelon production by either enhancing or declining the yields by 69% - 162% and 17% - 77%, respectively. Moreover, results have shown that respondents were aware that excess temperature intensity during dry periods can le

关键词： Watermelon March to May (MAM) and October to November (OND) Seasonal Rainfall Maximum and Minimum Temperature Anecdotal Information

Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Fantala to Tanzania Coastal Line: Case Study of Zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第2期11卷 245-266页

作者： Kombo Hamad Kai Mohammed Khamis Ngwali Masoud Makame Faki Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Zanzibar Office Kisauni Zanzibar Tanzania

The study investigated the impacts of tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala (11th to 27th April, 2016) to the coastal areas of Tanzania, Zanzibar in particular. Daily reanalysis data consisting of wind speed, sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomaly, and relative humidity from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) were used to analyze the variation in strength of Fantala as it was approaching the Tanzania coastal line. In addition observed rainfall from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) at Zanzibar office, Global Forecasting System (GFS) rainfall estimates and satellite images were used to visualize the impacts of tropical cyclone Fantala to Zanzibar. The results revealed that, TC Fantala was associated with deepening/decreasing in SLP (from 1012 - 1010 mb) around the north-western Madagascar and coastal Tanzania, whereas the mean SSTs was greater than 28°C and an SSTs anomaly ranged from 0 to 2.3°C. The vertical wind shear which ridged at Mozambican Channel and over north-eastern Madagascar was high enough (12 - 15 ms-1) to support the intensifying of Fantala. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions of Fantala influenced heavy rainfall of greater than 170 mm over most stations in Zanzibar. Moreover, Fantala disrupted the temporal variability of 2016 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall. Besides, more than 420 people were homeless, at least 3330 houses were destroyed, and about 2 people died. As for mainland Tanzania Fantala resulted in a death of 12 people in Kilimanjaro and Arusha, more than 315 houses were washed away by flooding leading to 13,933 people being homeless. Conclusively the study calls for an extensive research work based on examining and forecasting the TCs rainfall impacts and their contribution during the two rainfall seasons of OND and MA

关键词： Tropical Cyclone Fantala Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Dynamics and Thermodynamics Forecasting Systems and MAM Seasonal Rainfall Vorticity Wind Shear Vertical Profile

The Influence of Weather and Climate Variability on Groundwater Quality in Zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第4期12卷 613-634页

作者： Leluu Ramadhan Mohammed Kombo Hamad Kai Agnes Laurence Kijazi Said Suleiman Bakar Sara Abdalla Khamis Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Kisauni Zanzibar State University of Zanzibar Tunguu Campus Zanzibar

Climate change and variability have been inducing a broad spectrum of impacts on the environment and natural resources including groundwater resources. The study aimed at assessing the influence of weather, climate variability, and changes on the quality of groundwater resources in Zanzibar. The study used the climate datasets including rainfall (RF), Maximum and Minimum Temperature (Tmax and Tmin), the records acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Zanzibar office for 30 (1989-2019) and 10 (2010-2019) years periods. Also, the Zanzibar Water Authority (ZAWA) monthly records of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Electrical Conductivity (EC), and Ground Water Temperature (GWT) were used. Interpolation techniques were used for controlling outliers and missing datasets. Indeed, correlation, trend, and time series analyses were used to show the relationship between climate and water quality parameters. However, simple statistical analyses including mean, percentage changes, and contributions to the annual and seasonal mean were calculated. Moreover, t and paired t-tests were used to show the significant changes in the mean of the variables for two defined periods of 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 at p ≤ 0.05. Results revealed that seasonal variability of groundwater quality from March to May (MAM) has shown a significant change in trends ranging from 0.1 to 2.8 mm/L/yr, 0.1 to 2.8 μS/cm/yr, and 0.1 to 2.0℃/yr for TDS, EC, and GWT, respectively. The changes in climate parameters were 0.1 to 2.4 mm/yr, 0.2 to 1.3℃/yr and 0.1 to 2.5℃/yr in RF, Tmax, and Tmin, respectively. From October to December (OND) changes in groundwater parameters ranged from 0.2 to 2.5 mm/L/yr 0.1 to 2.9 μS/cm/yr, and 0.1 to 2.1℃/yr for TDS, EC, and GWT, whereas RF, Tmax, and Tmin changed from 0.3 to 1.8 mm/yr, 0.2 to 1.9℃/yr and 0.2 to 2.0℃/yr, respectively. Moreover, the study has shown strong c

关键词： Quality of Groundwater Parameters Climate Variability Mean Changes of Climate and Water Quality Parameters

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the Performance of March to May 2020 Long Rains and Its Socio-Economic Implications in Northern Coast of Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第4期11卷 767-796页

作者： Kombo Hamad Kai Agnes Laurence Kijazi Sarah E. Osima Habiba Ismail Mtongori Makame Omar Makame Hafidh Juma Bakari Omar Asya Hamad Tanzania Meteorological Agency (tma) Institute of Marine Sciences (IMS) University of Dar es Salam (UDSM) Zanzibar Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Headquarters Ubungo Plaza Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May (MAM) 2020 rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanzania (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. The uniqueness of the October to December, 2019 (OND) rainfall and the extension of the January to February, 2020 rainfall in Zanzibar which coincided with MAM 2020 rainfall was among the issues which prolonged MAM 2020 rainfall in NCT and Zanzibar. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Reanalysis 1 datasets of u (zonal) and v (meridional) winds, sea surface temperatures anomalies, relative humidity, amount of precipitable water and ocean net flux were analyzed. Other datasets include the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) observed rainfall records, maximum and minimum temperatures. Moreover, TMA and Intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Analysis Center (ICPAC). MAM 2020 rainfall and temperature forecast reports were interpreted. Gridded and observed datasets were calcu

关键词： March to May 2020 Rainfall Assessment Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies (SSTA) Assessments Precipitable Water (PRW) and Ocean Net Flux Relative Humidity

Investigating Women’s Realization on Understanding the Impact of Climate Variability in Socioeconomic Performance in Zanzibar, Tanzania: A Case of Jambiani Village

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第2期12卷 313-329页

作者： Bibie Salim Abdullah Kombo Hamad Kai Jason Kalugendo Shamim Mushi Veronica Mgalula Decatur Georgia USA Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Dar es Salaam Zanzibar Tanzania

The study employed the triangulation approach to investigate the impact of climate variability on selected socioeconomic indicators, particularly food production, health and education, and how much climate variability and its impact on those indicators was realized and understood among the women living in Jambiani community in Zanzibar. The study used the explanatory, sequential mixed method to collect, datasets related to Jambiani communities (i.e. from the women in Kibigija village), other climate data acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma), Ministries of Agriculture and Health and Southern District in Zanzibar. The results obtained from the analysis of both anecdotal (interview, questionnaire among others) data shows that climate variability was imminent in Jambiani communities between 2010 and 2015 and had a negative impact on food production, health and education. Further results revealed that women working in informal sectors are more vulnerable to climate impacts than women working in formal sectors due to less knowledge and techniques to mitigate/cope with climate variability impacts. Conclusively the study has shown that climate variability affects more women with less awareness of what is happening and how to cope with it, thus the study calls for new research work and increasing the awareness on the impacts of climate on human basic needs.

关键词： Climate Variability Women Coping Mechanism Zanzibar

The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Spatio-Temporal Rainfall and Temperature Distribution in Zanzibar

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2023年第2期13卷 282-313页

作者： Abdalla Hassan Abdalla Kombo Hamad Kai Sara Abdalla Khamis Afredy Lawrence Kondowe Sarah E. Osima Philemon Henry King’uza Asya Omar Hamad Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) Zanzibar Tanzania Faculty of Science State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) Zanzibar Tanzania

Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on the influence of climate change and variability on spatio-temporal rainfall and temperature variability and distribution in Zanzibar. The station observation datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (tma) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected datasets from the Regional climate model HIRHAM5 under driving model ICHEC-EC-EARH, for the three periods of 1991-2020 used as baseline (HS), 2021-2050 as near future (NF) and 2051-2080 far future (FF), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5, were used. The long-term observed Tmax and Tmin were used to produce time series for observing the nature and trends, while the observed rainfall data was used for understanding wet and dry periods, trends and slope (at p ≤ 0.05) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Moreover, the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) under the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation techniques were used for mapping the three decades of 1991-2000 (hereafter D1), 2001-2010 (hereafter D2) and 2011-2020 (hereafter D3) to analyze periodical spatial rainfall distribution in Zanzibar. As for the projected datasets the Climate Data Operator Commands (CDO), python scripts and Grid analysis and Display System (GrADS) soft-wares were used to process and display the results of the projected datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin for the HS, NF and FF, respectively. The results show that the observed Tmax increased by the rates of 0.035℃ yr-1 and 0.0169℃ yr-1, while the Tmin was i

关键词： Climate Change Climate Variability Spatial and Temporal Distribution Temperature Rainfall CORDEX