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A Systematic Analysis of Systems Approach and Flood Risk management Research:Trends,Gaps,and Opportunities

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第1期15卷 45-57页

作者： Lum Sonita Awah Johanes Amate Belle Yong Sebastian Nyam Israel Ropo Orimoloye Disaster management training and Education centre for Africa University of the Free StateBloemfontein 9300South Africa School of Environment Geographyand SustainabilityWestern Michigan UniversityKalamazooMI 49008USA

Flooding is a global threat,necessitating a comprehensive management *** to the complexity of managing flood hazards and risks,researchers have advocated for holistic,comprehensive,and integrated *** study,employing a systems thinking perspective,assessed global flood risk management research trends,gaps,and opportunities using132 published documents in BibTeX format.A systematic review of downloaded documents from the Scopus and Web of Science databases revealed slow progress of approximately 11.61% annual growth in applying systems thinking and its concomitant approaches to understanding global flood risk management over the past two decades compared to other fields like water resource management and business management systems.A significant gap exists in the application of systems thinking methodologies to flood risk management research between developed and developing countries,particularly in Africa,highlighting the urgency of reoriented research and policy *** application gaps of the study methodology are linked to challenges outlined in existing literature,such as issues related to technical expertise and resource *** study advocates a shift from linear to holistic approaches in flood risk management,aligned with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2023 and the Sustainable Development *** among researchers,institutions,and countries is essential to address this global challenge effectively.

关键词： Flood risk management research Gaps and opportunities Global trends in flood research Systematic review.Systems thinking

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Diagnosis of the Kinetic Energy of the“21·7”Extreme Torrential Rainfall Event in Henan Province,China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 73-83页

作者： Xiuping YAO Ruoying LI Xiaohong BAO Qiaohua LIU China Meteorological Administration training centre Beijing 100081China state Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July *** on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance *** showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to *** particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 ***,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase *** meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in *** transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.

关键词： extreme torrential rain rotational kinetic energy kinetic energy generation and transport barotropic process

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Chemical-assisted MMP reduction on methane-oil systems:Implications for natural gas injection to enhanced oil recovery

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Petroleum 2024年第1期10卷 101-108页

作者： Mohamed Almobarak Matthew B.Myers Colin D.Wood Yongbing Liu Ali Saeedi Quan Xie Discipline of Petroleum Engineering WA School of Mines: Minerals Energy and Chemical Engineering Curtin University Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Curtin University Oil and Gas Innovation centre management state Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation

Miscible natural gas injection is widely considered as a practical and efficient enhanced oil recovery technique. However, the main challenge in this process is the high minimum miscibility pressure（MMP）between natural gas and crude oil, which limits its application and recovery factor, especially in hightemperature reservoirs. Therefore, we present a novel investigation to quantify the effect of chemicalassisted MMP reduction on the oil recovery factor. Firstly, we measured the interfacial tension（IFT） of the methane-oil system in the presence of chemical or CO2to calculate the MMP reduction at a constant temperature（373K） using the vanishing interfacial tension（VIT） method. Afterwards, we performed three coreflooding experiments to quantify the effect of MMP reduction on the oil recovery factor under different injection *** interfacial tension measurements show that adding a small fraction（1.5 wt%） of the tested surfactant（SOLOTERRA ME-6） achieved 9% of MMP reduction, while adding 20 wt% of CO2to the methane yields 13% of MMP reduction. Then, the coreflooding results highlight the significance of achieving miscibility during gas injection, as the ultimate recovery factor increased from 65.5% under immiscible conditions to 77.2% using chemical-assisted methane, and to 79% using gas mixture after achieving near miscible condition. The results demonstrate the promising potential of the MMP reduction to significantly increase the oil recovery factor during gas injection. Furthermore, these results will likely expand the application envelop of the miscible gas injection, in addition to the environmental benefits of utilizing the produced gas by re-injection/recycling instead of flaring which contributes to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions.

关键词： Gas injection Enhanced oil recovery Miscibility Coreflooding

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Adaptive 5G-and-beyond network-enabled interpretable federated learning enhanced by neuroevolution

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Science China(Information Sciences) 2024年第7期67卷 107-132页

作者： Bin CAO Jianwei ZHAO Xin LIU Yun LI state Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment Hebei University of Technology School of Artificial Intelligence Hebei University of Technology School of Economics and management Hebei University of Technology Industrial Artificial Intelligence centre Shenzhen Institute for Advanced StudyUniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of China

Mobile telemedicine systems based on the next-generation communication will significantly enhance deep fusion of network automation and federated learning(FL), but data privacy is a paramount issue in sectors like healthcare. This work hence considers FL augments 5G-and-beyond networks by training deep learning(DL) models without the need to exchange raw data. The substantial communication loads imposed on by extensive parameters involved in DL models are managed through adaptive scheduling mechanisms effectively. To address the opaque nature of DL models and to improve the interpretability of FL models, we introduce a convolutional fuzzy rough neural network specifically designed for medical image processing. We also develop a multiobjective memetic evolutionary algorithm to streamline and optimize the neural network architectures. Our comprehensive FL framework integrates smart scheduling, interpretable fuzzy rough logic,and neuroevolution. This framework is shown to improve communication efficiency, increase interpretability of diagnosis with protected privacy, and generate low-complexity neural architectures.

关键词： 5G-and-beyond network interpretable federated learning mobile telemedicine system fuzzy rough set theory neuroevolution

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Predicting potential invasion risks of Leucaena leucocephala(Lam.)de Wit in the arid area of Saudi Arabia

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第7期16卷 983-999页

作者： Haq S MARIFATUL Darwish MOHAMMED Waheed MUHAMMAD Kumar MANOJ Siddiqui H MANZER Bussmann W RAINER Department of Ethnobotany Institute of BotanyIlia State UniversityTbilisi 0162Georgia The centre of Excellence on Sustainable Land management(CoE-SLM) Indian Council of Forestry Research and EducationDehradun 248006India Department of Botany and Microbiology College of ScienceKing Saud UniversityRiyadh 11451Saudi Arabia Department of Botany State Museum for Natural HistoryKarlsruhe 76133Germany

The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is *** study uses maximum entropy(MaxEnt)modeling to forecast the likelihood of Leucaena leucocephala(Lam.)de Wit invasion in Saudi Arabia under present and future climate change *** the MaxEnt modeling,we integrated climatic and soil data to predict habitat suitability for the invasive *** conducted a detailed analysis of the distribution patterns of the species,using climate variables and ecological *** focused on the important influence of temperature seasonality,temperature annual range,and precipitation *** distribution modeling used robust measures of area under the curve(AUC)and receiver-operator characteristic(ROC)curves,to map the invasion extent,which has a high level of accuracy in identifying appropriate *** complex interaction that influenced the invasion of *** was highlighted by the environmental parameters using Jackknife ***,the actual geographic area where *** was found in Saudi Arabia was considerably smaller than the theoretical maximum range,suggesting that it had the capacity to expand *** MaxEnt model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy and produced reliable results based on the data from the ROC *** and temperature were the primary factors influencing the potential distribution of ***,an estimated area of 216,342 km^(2)in Saudi Arabia was at a high probability of invasion by *** investigated the potential for increased invasion hazards in the future due to climate change scenarios(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)245 and 585).The analysis of key climatic variables,including temperature seasonality and annual range,along with soil properties such as clay composition and nitrogen content,unveiled their substanti

关键词： area under the curve invasive species invasion risks climate change MaxEnt model

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Total body water percentage and 3rd space water are novel risk factors for training-related lower extremity muscle injuries in young males

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2024年第3期27卷 168-172页

作者： Liang Chen Ke-Xing Jin Jing Yang Jun-Jjie Ouyang Han-Gang Chen Si-Ru Zhou Xiao-Qing Luo Mi Liu Liang Kuang Yang-Li Xie Yan Hu Lin Chen Zhen-Hong Ni Xiao-Lan Du Department of Orthopedic Daping HospitalArmy Medical UniversityChongqing400042China Department of Rehabilitation Medicine Daping HospitalArmy Medical UniversityChongqing400042China Department of Wound Repair and Rehabilitation Medicine Center of Bone Metabolism and RepairLaboratory for Prevention and Rehabilitation of Training InjuriesState Key Laboratory of Trauma and Chemical Poisoning.Trauma CenterResearch Instiute of SurgeryDaping HospitalArmy Medical UniversityChongqing.400042China War Trauma Medical Center Daping HospitalArmy Medical UniversityChongqing400042.China Department of Military Basic training and Army management Army Health Service Training BaseArmy Medical UniversityChongqing400042China Department of Army Occupational Disease Laboratory for Prevention and Rehabilitation of Training InjuriesState Key Laboratory of Trauma and Chemical PoisoningResearch Institute of SurgeryDaping HospitalArmy Medical UniversityChongqing400042.China

Purpose:To identify the risk factors for training-related lower extremity muscle injuries in young males by a non-invasive method of body composition ***:A total of 282 healthy young male volunteers aged 18-20 years participated in this cohort *** location,degree,and injury rate were adjusted by a questionnaire based on the overuse injury assessment methods used in epidemiological studies of sports *** occurrence of training injuries is monitored and diagnosed by physicians and treated *** body composition was measured using the BodyStat QuadScan 4000 multifrequency Bio-impedance system at 5,50,100 and 200 kHz to obtain 4 impedance *** Shapiro-Wilk test was used to check whether the data conformed to a normal *** of normal distribution were shown as mean±SD and analyzed by t-test,while those of non-normal distribution were shown as median(Q1,Q3)and analyzed by Wilcoxon rank sum *** receiver operator characteristic curve and logistic regression analysis were performed to investigate risk factors for developing training-related lower extremity injuries and ***:Among the 282 subjects,78(27.7%)developed training *** extremity training injuries revealed the highest incidence,accounting for 23.4%(66 cases).These patients showed higher percentages of lean body mass(p=0.001),total body water(TBW,p=0.006),extracellular water(p=0.020)and intracellular water(p=0.010)as well as a larger ratio of basal metabolic rate/total weight(p=0.006),compared with those without lower extremity muscle *** the contrary,the percentage of body fat(p=0.001)and body fat mass index(p=0.002)were *** regression analysis showed that TBW percentage>65.35%(p=0.050,odds ratio=3.114)and 3rd space water>0.95%(p=0.045,odds ratio=2.342)were independent risk factors for lower extremity muscle ***:TBW percentage and 3rd space water measured with bio-impedance method are potential ris

关键词： Body composition training injuries Lower extremity Bio-impedance

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration training centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Rapid and stable calcium-looping solar thermochemical energy storage via co-doping binary sulfate and Al±Mn±Fe oxides

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Green Energy & Environment 2024年第8期9卷 1290-1305页

作者： Changjian Yuan Xianglei Liu Xinrui Wang Chao Song Hangbin Zheng Cheng Tian Ke Gao Nan Sun Zhixing Jiang Yimin Xuan Yulong Ding School of Energy and Power Engineering Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Key Laboratory of Thermal management and Energy Utilization of Aviation Vehicles Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Birmingham centre for Energy Storage School of Chemical Engineering University of Birmingham

Solar thermochemical energy storage based on calcium looping（CaL） process is a promising technology for next-generation concentrated solar power（CSP） systems. However, conventional calcium carbonate（CaCO3） pellets suffer from slow reaction kinetics, poor stability, and low solar absorptance. Here, we successfully realized high power density and highly stable solar thermochemical energy storage/release by synergistically accelerating energy storage/release via binary sulfate and promoting cycle stability, mechanical strength, and solar absorptance via Al±Mn±Fe oxides. The energy storage density of proposed CaCO3pellets is still as high as 1455 kJ kg-1with only a slight decay rate of 4.91% over 100 cycles, which is higher than that of state-of-the-art pellets in the literature, in stark contrast to 69.9% of pure CaCO3pellets over 35cycles. Compared with pure CaCO3, the energy storage power density or decomposition rate is improved by 120% due to lower activation energy and promotion of Ca2+diffusion by binary sulfate. The energy release or carbonation rate rises by 10% because of high O2-transport ability of molten binary sulfate. Benefiting from fast energy storage/release rate and high solar absorptance, thermochemical energy storage efficiency is enhanced by more than 50% under direct solar irradiation. This work paves the way for application of direct solar thermochemical energy storage techniques via achieving fast energy storage/release rate, high energy density, good cyclic stability, and high solar absorptance simultaneously.

关键词： Calcium looping (CaL) Solar thermochemical Energy storage Binary sulfate Fast reaction kinetics

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Influence of edaphic factors on distribution and condition of Himalayan silver birch(Betula utilis ***)communities in the northwestern Indian Himalayas

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第2期21卷 590-606页

作者： Khashti DASILA Renu RAWAL Tanay BARMAN Sher Singh SAMANT Anita PANDEY Veena PANDE G.B.Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment Almora 263643India centre of Excellence on Sustainable Land management Indian Council of Forestry Research and EducationDehradun 248006India Uttarakhand state Council for Science&Technology Dehradun 248015India Department of Biotechnology Graphic Era(Deemed to be University)Dehradun 248002India Department of Biotechnology Kumaun UniversityNainital 263136India

The basic concept of phytosociology is crucial for the assessment of species composition and dynamic ecological succession of forests supporting ecological services,functions,disturbance,and resilience that lead to the development of integrated areas such as ecological niche modeling and contribute to identifying the valuable bio-indicators which can be used in framing conservation and management *** is one of the most dominant tree species of treeline ecotone in the Himalayan *** species is also considered as indicator species for monitoring the past and recent climate change *** current study was carried out in the natural populations of *** from the sub-alpine zone of North-western Indian *** birch dominated forest harbors a total of 305 plant species comprising Angiosperms(51 families,160 genera and 277 species),Gymnosperms(03 families,05 genera and 07 species)and Pteridophytes(07 families,11 genera and 21 species)with Asteraceae,Ranunculaceae and Rosaceae as dominant *** forests are found dominant in shady moist habitat and North West *** characteristics,anthropogenic and developmental activities affect the population structure of *** and associated ***,the species has fair regeneration status in the study *** acidic nature of soil pH and spatial variation in edaphic characteristics may be due to geographical differences,rooting patterns and litter accumulation of below and above-ground *** estimation of a representative population of *** from each site showed that TAGBD,TCD and TBD were found maximum in ST3(Hamta Pass II site).The CCA analysis determined that environmental variables such as altitude,organic matter,available phosphorous,organic carbon,available nitrogen,and electrical conductivity played a significant role in determining tree species composition and distribution in *** dominated forests.

关键词： Species composition Indicator species Biomass North-western Indian Himalaya Regeneration Environmental variables

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Computational Experiments for Complex Social Systems:Experiment Design and Generative Explanation

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IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 2024年第4期11卷 1022-1038页

作者： Xiao Xue Deyu Zhou Xiangning Yu Gang Wang Juanjuan Li Xia Xie Lizhen Cui Fei-Yue Wang the School of Computer Software College of Intelligence and ComputingTianjin UniversityTianjin 300350China the School of Software and the Joint SDUNTU centre for Artificial Intelligence Research(C-FAIR) Shandong UniversityJinan 250101China the Information School Xi’an University of Financial and EconomicsXi’an 710100China the state Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Hainan University Haikou 570228China the state Key Laboratory for management and Control of Complex Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 1001901China

Powered by advanced information technology,more and more complex systems are exhibiting characteristics of the cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS).In this context,computational experiments method has emerged as a novel approach for the design,analysis,management,control,and integration of CPSS,which can realize the causal analysis of complex systems by means of“algorithmization”of“counterfactuals”.However,because CPSS involve human and social factors(e.g.,autonomy,initiative,and sociality),it is difficult for traditional design of experiment(DOE)methods to achieve the generative explanation of system *** address this challenge,this paper proposes an integrated approach to the design of computational experiments,incorporating three key modules:1)Descriptive module:Determining the influencing factors and response variables of the system by means of the modeling of an artificial society;2)Interpretative module:Selecting factorial experimental design solution to identify the relationship between influencing factors and macro phenomena;3)Predictive module:Building a meta-model that is equivalent to artificial society to explore its operating ***,a case study of crowd-sourcing platforms is presented to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the proposed approach,which can reveal the social impact of algorithmic behavior on“rider race”.

关键词： Agent-based modeling computational experiments cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS) generative deduction generative experiments meta model

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