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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 21-30页

作者： Zhen LIAO Yu-Feng YUAN Yang CHEN Pan-Mao ZHAI state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

A widespread and prolonged hot extreme hit the Yangtze River basin in summer 2022,with 300 sites established new temperature records and nearly 96%stations endured more than 40 hot days.From the perspective of the combination effect of the global warming and La Nina condition,potential mechanisms of the hot extreme were investigated.Such a record-breaking hot extreme was caused by an extremely strong and westward-shifted western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).The global warming effect contributed primarily to the abnormal hot days in the Yangtze River basin,coupled with the modulation of the La Nina condition.The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern under La Nina condition favored more convection activities over the western Pacific,encouraging an enhanced and westward-extended WPSH.In addition,an observation-based attribution analysis indicates that anthropogenic warming may increase the probability of such extensively persistent hot extremeby1.8 times.

关键词： Hot extreme The Yangtze River basin Global warming Tropical Pacific forcing

Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic conditions.The absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least 1961.Recognizing the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning 1961-2022.This CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet stream.Moreover,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change perspective.The return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural factors.Contrastingly,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost negligible.These outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 343-374页

作者： Zengchao HAO Yang CHEN College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100081China

Compound extremes,whose socioeconomic and ecological impacts are severer than that caused by each event occurring in isolation,have evolved into a hot topic in Earth Science in the past decade.In the context of climate change,many compound extremes have exhibited increasing frequency and intensity,and shown novel fashions of combinations,posing more pressing demands and tougher challenges to scientific research and disaster prevention and response.This article,via a perspective of multi-sphere interactions within the Earth System,systematically reviews the status quo,new scientific understanding,and deficiencies regarding the definition,mechanism,change,attribution,and projection of compound extremes.This study also sorts out existing challenges and outlines a potential roadmap in advancing the study on compound extremes with respect to data requirement,mechanistic diagnosis,numerical modeling,attribution and projection,risk assessment,and adaptive response.Further directions of compound extremes studies and key research topics that warrant multi-disciplinary and multisectoral coordinated efforts are also proposed.Given that climate change has reshaped the type of extremes,a transformation from the traditional single-event perspective to a compound-event perspective is needed for scientific research,disaster prevention and mitigation,and climate change adaptation,calling for bottom-up innovation in research objects,ideas,and methods.This article will add value to promoting the research on compound extremes and interdisciplinary cooperations.

关键词： Extremes Compound extremes Climate change and risk Multi-sphere interactions

The Performance of Downward Shortwave Radiation Products from Satellite and Reanalysis over the Transect of Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1574-1588+1671-1675页

作者： Jiajia JIA Zhaoliang ZENG Wenqian ZHANG Xiangdong ZHENG Yaqiang WANG Minghu DING state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

The downward shortwave radiation（DSR） is an important part of the Earth's energy balance, driving Earth's system's energy, water, and carbon cycles. Due to the harsh Antarctic environment, the accuracy of DSR derived from satellite and reanalysis has not been systematically evaluated over the transect of Zhongshan station to Dome A, East Antarctica.Therefore, this study aims to evaluate DSR reanalysis products（ERA5-Land, ERA5, MERRA-2） and satellite products（CERES and ICDR） in this area. The results indicate that DSR exhibits obvious monthly and seasonal variations, with higher values in summer than in winter. The ERA5-Land（ICDR） DSR product demonstrated the highest（lowest） accuracy,as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.988（0.918）, a root-mean-square error of 23.919（69.383） W m–2, a mean bias of –1.667（–28.223） W m–2and a mean absolute error of 13.37（58.99） W m–2. The RMSE values for the ERA5-Land reanalysis product at seven stations, namely Zhongshan, Panda 100, Panda 300, Panda 400, Taishan, Panda 1100, and Kunlun, were 30.938, 29.447, 34.507, 29.110, 20.339, 17.267, and 14.700 W m–2, respectively; with corresponding bias values of 9.887, –12.159, –19.181, –15.519, –8.118, 6.297, and 3.482 W m–2. Regarding seasonality, ERA5-Land, ERA5,and MERRA-2 reanalysis products demonstrate higher accuracies during spring and summer, while ICDR products are least accurate in autumn. Cloud cover, water vapor, total ozone, and severe weather are the main factors affecting DSR. The error of DSR products is greatest in coastal areas（particularly at the Zhongshan station） and decreases towards the inland areas of Antarctica.

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Influence of meteorological factors on open biomass burning at a background site in Northeast China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 1-9页

作者： Yulong Wang Linlin Liang Wanyun Xu Chang Liu Hongbing Cheng Yusi Liu Gen Zhang Xiaobin Xu Dajiang Yu Peng Wang Qingli Song Jiumeng Liu Yuan Cheng state key laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment School of EnvironmentHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150090China state key laboratory of severe weather&key laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Longfengshan Regional Background Station China Meteorological AdministrationHeilongjiang 150200China Heilongjiang Climate Center Heilongjiang 150030China

Biomass burning(BB)is a very important emission source that significantly adversely impacts regional air quality.BB produces a large number of primary organic aerosol(POA)and black carbon(BC).Besides,BB also provides many precursors for secondary organic aerosol(SOA)generation.In this work,the ratio of levoglucosan(LG)to organic carbon(OC)and the fire hotspots map was used to identify the open biomass burning(OBB)events,which occurred in two representative episodes,October 13 to November 30,2020,and April1 to April 30,2021.The ratio of organic aerosol(OA)to reconstructed PM_(2.5)concentration(PM_(2.5)^(*))increased with the increase of LG/OC.When LG/OC ratio is higher than 0.03,the highest OA/PM_(2.5)^(*)ratio can reach 80%,which means the contribution of OBB to OA is crucial.According to the ratio of LG to K^(+),LG to mannosan(MN)and the regional characteristics of Longfengshan,it can be determined that the crop residuals are the main fuel.The occurrence of OBB coincides with farmers’preferred choices,i.e.,burning biomass in“bright weather”.The“bright weather”refers to the meteorological conditions with high temperature,low humidity,and without rain.Meteorological factors indirectly affect regional biomass combustion pollution by influencing farmers’active choices.

关键词： Air pollution Biomass burning Meteorological factors Organic trace Agricultural fires

Interannual variation of annual precipitation and urban effect on precipitation in the Beijing region

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第9期17卷 1042-1050页

作者： Yu Shuqiu(state key laboratory on severe weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China) state key laboratory on severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region.The results show that:the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of-1.197/10 yr,which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years;the local annual precipitation anomalies(percent of the normal 1960-2000)show a positive center near the urban area,i.***.urban precipitation island(UPI),whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0.6621%/10 yr,opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region;changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation,and when the synoptic processes are strong(wet years),the intensity of UPI strengthens,while the synoptic processes are weak(dry years),and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region.

关键词： urban precipitation island effect interannual climate variation precipitation Beijing atmospheric science

An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band patterns in China

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第3期17卷 280-288页

作者： WEI Fengying (state key laboratory of severe weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Three variation indices are defined to objectively and quantitatively represent fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns in summers in China for the period from 1951 to 2005, and the variation features of these indices are analyzed on both of interdecadal and interannual scales. A new method is proposed to establish an integrative estimation model based on the analysis of rainfall-band indices, and the model is applied to air, ocean factors to estimate their roles on variations of three rainfall-band patterns on different time-scales. The tests of estimation effects show that the fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns are composed of variations on both significant inter-decadal and interannual scales, of which the interannual variation is mainly influenced by the Elnino/Lanina events, the East Asia monsoon and the ridge locations of subtropical high pressures in western pacific, while the interdecadal variation is mainly controlled by the Pacific decadal oscillation and interdecadal oscillations of the Arctic oscillation, ENSO, Nino3 sea surface temperature and summer monsoon. The estimated results from the integrative estimation model of rainfall-band patterns suggest that the way of estimation first according to each time scale of both the interdecadal and interannual scales, then estimating with an integration, which is proposed in this paper, has an obvious improvement on that without separation of time scales.

关键词： rainfall-band pattern interannual variation interdecadal variation integration estimation model.

Interdecadal trend turning of global terrestrial temperature and precipitation during 1951-2002

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第11期18卷 1383-1393页

作者： Xiaohui Shi Xiangde Xu state key laboratory of severe weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

A grid-by-grid counting of interdecadal trend turning(ITT)of annual mean surface air temperature(SAT)and total precipitation at 67,359 terrestrial grids in the period 1951-2002 is presented.An analysis of the last ITTs of SAT and total precipitation in the period,in the context of both occurrence time and linear trends after the breakpoint,indicates that a warming trend has become highly significant across most reagent of the world in the late 20th Century.Most terrestrial grids have recorded an ITT of total precipitation in either the 1970s or 1980s,and 45.7% of the terrestrial grids in the study have seen a decreasing trend in total annual precipitation after the break- point,with the remaining 54.3% having experienced an increasing trend.Basically,global terrestrial regions have experienced either an increasingly warm and dry climate or an increasingly warm and wet climate.An analysis of ITT of regional mean SAT and total pre- cipitation in 22 regions shows that the Northern American continent has become increasingly warm and dry after the last interdecadal breakpoint.Meanwhile,the African continent has become increasingly warm and wet,with both Europe and most of Asia having the same trend.Southern South America and the West of Australia have experienced an opposite trend in climate,becoming increasingly cold and wet.

关键词： Global terrene Surface air temperature Precipitation Interdecadal trend turning

The least-square method in complex number domain

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第3期16卷 307-312页

作者： GU Xiangqian, KANG Hongwen and CAO Hongxing (state key laboratory of severe weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The classical least-square method was extended from the real number into the complex number domain, which is called the complex least-square method. The mathematical derivation and its applications show that the complex least-square method is different from one that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated with the classical least-square, by which the actual least-square estimation cannot be obtained in practice. Applications of this new method to an arbitrarily given series and to the precipitation in rainy season at 160 meteorological stations in China mainland show advantages of this method over other conventional statistical models.

关键词： complex least square Fourier transformation forecast in rainy season.

Significant contribution of carbonyls to atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)during the winter haze pollution over North China Plain

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第5期139卷 377-388页

作者： Xue Yang Gen Zhang Guang Pan Guolan Fan Houyong Zhang Xuan Ge Mingyue Du School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering Shandong Jianzhu UniversityJi’nan 250101China state key laboratory of severe weather&key laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Shandong Jinan Ecological Environment Monitoring Center Ji’nan 250101China

Atmospheric carbonyl compounds play significant roles in the cycling of radicals and have exhibited surprisingly high levels in winter that were well correlated to particulate matter,for which the reason have not been clearly elucidated.Here we measured carbonyl compounds and other trace gasses together with PM_(2.5)over urban Jinan in North China Plain during the winter.Markedly higher carbonyl concentrations(average:14.63±4.21 ppbv)were found during wintertime haze pollution,about one to three-times relative to those on nonhaze days,with slight difference in chemical composition except formaldehyde(HCHO).HCHO(3.68 ppbv),acetone(3.17 ppbv),and acetaldehyde(CH_3CHO)(2.83 ppbv)were the three most abundant species,accounting for~75% of the total carbonylson both haze and non-haze days.Results from observational-based model(OBM)with atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)indicated that AOC significantly increased with the increasing carbonyls during the winter haze events.Carbonyl photolysis have supplied key oxidants such as RO_(2) and HO_(2),and thereby enhancing the formation of fine particles and secondary organic aerosols,elucidating the observed haze-carbonyls inter-correlation.Diurnal variation with carbonyls exhibiting peak values at early-noon and night highlighted the combined contribution of both secondary formation and primary diesel-fuel sources.1-butene was further confirmed to be the major precursor for HCHO.This study confirms the great contribution of carbonyls to AOC,and also suggests that reducing the emissions of carbonyls would be an effective way to mitigate haze pollution in urban area of the NCP region.

关键词： Carbonyls Haze Observation-based model Source apportionment Atmospheric oxidation capacity