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Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21^st Century

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第3期12卷 192-221页

作者： Fabien Habiyakare Tong Jiang Ibrahim Yahaya Daudi Ndabagenga James Kagabo Buda Su School of atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) Kigali Rwanda Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China Department of Geography Gombe State University Gombe State Nigeria

This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21st century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.

关键词： Extreme Precipitation Mann-Kendall Trend Projections Oceanic System Africa

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Short communication:Extreme glacier mass loss triggered by high temperature and drought during hydrological year 2022/2023 in Qilian Mountains

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2024年第1期16卷 1-4页

作者： JiZu Chen XingYu Xue WenTao Du state key laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)LanzhouGansu 730000China Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Intelligent Equipment and Big Data for Disaster Prevention Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of Science(CAS)LanzhouGansu 730000China Zhangye meteorological Bureau ZhangyeGansu 734000China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS)Beijing 100049China

In the hydrological year 2022/2023,the glaciers in the Qilian Mountains experienced unprecedented mass *** glacier-wide mass balance was-1,188 mm w.e.,in contrast to-350 mm of average mass balance since 1990 over the Bailanghe Glacier No.12 in the middle of Qilian *** temperature during 2022–2023 reached the highest value ever recorded,second only to 2022,while at the same time the precipitation amount was less compared to other year since 2000,which together led to the strongest glacier mass loss during 2022–*** atmospheric circulation analysis shows that the high temperature in the Qilian Mountains in 2023 was jointly caused by the Arctic air mass and East Asian monsoon.

关键词： Bailanghe Glacier No.21 Glacier mass loss Extreme high temperature atmospheric circulation

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Impacts of Extreme Droughts on Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency Diverge between Forest and Grassland

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第5期37卷 710-721页

作者： Mengtian HUANG Panmao ZHAI state key laboratory of severe weather and Institute of Global Change and Polar Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE),as a quantification of the coupling between carbon and water cycle,determines whether vegetation could survive under severe drought ***,how extreme droughts affect ecosystem-scale WUE and its difference among regions and biomes are still poorly *** this study,using data-oriented gridded products of gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET),we assessed the ecosystem WUE change during extreme drought years over china,and further compared drought impacts on WUE between forest and grassland *** found a spatial heterogeneity of WUE change in response to extreme droughts across ***,grassland WUE was substantially reduced concurrent with suppressed photosynthesis,while most of forest exhibited slightly decreased or even increased WUE under extreme *** addition,we demonstrated that drought characteristics and environmental conditions modulated drought impacts on *** anomalies during droughts and leaf area were found to be the predominant factors driving WUE change for both forest and *** increasing occurrence of compound dry and hot extremes,our results,therefore,would be an insightful supplement to the current understanding of the influence of extreme events on terrestrial ecosystems.

关键词： extreme droughts water use efficiency terrestrial ecosystems forest grassland china

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Study of the characteristics of rocket-triggered lightning energetic radiation and its relationships with the discharge parameters

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Science china Earth Sciences 2023年第3期66卷 633-647页

作者： Xiong ZHANG Xiaoqiang LI Yang ZHANG Baofeng CAO Yi ZHENG Rubin JIANG Peng LI Hongbo ZHANG Weitao LYU state key laboratory of NBC Protection for Civilian Beijing 102205China state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Institute of atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Through the use of the independently developed Thunderstorm Energetic Radiation Observation System(TEROS),observation experiments of rocket-triggered lightning energetic radiation(RLER)were conducted for the first time at the Field Experiment Base on Lightning Sciences,china meteorological administration from May 2021 to July 2021.A total of 17 X-ray bursts were detected during all of the 22 leader/return *** this study,the energy,time,and direction characteristics of Xray burst and its relationships with the corresponding discharge parameters,such as the return stroke peak current,half-peak width,rise time,and interstroke time interval,as well as the associated physical processes,are analyzed and *** showed that energetic radiation is ubiquitous in triggered lightning and is closely related to the last downward leader phase before the return *** photon energies were concentrated in tens to hundreds of ke V,and the average duration of RLER was approximately 27μ***,RLER exhibited directional property inconsistent with a vertical downward beam,which may be related to the development orientation of the lightning *** intensity of RLER was positively correlated with the return stroke peak current,indicating that it directly depends on the lightning intensity,but it would be modulated by the lightning channel *** 17 RLER events showed 3 different time distribution patterns,namely,discrete,continuous,and discrete/continuous pulses,of which the discharge parameters were also *** discrete pulse event had the longest duration,a small half-peak width,and a long interstroke time ***,all of these events occurred during the last several leader/return *** continuous pulse event had a short duration and a small peak *** discrete/continuous pulse event had a moderate duration and a large half-peak width and peak *** three distinct time distribution patterns may be determined by

关键词： Rocket-triggered lightning Lightning energetic radiation X-ray burst Channel base current Leader high-field runaway mechanism

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Evaluation of a Regional Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Typhoon Prediction

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1816-1832页

作者： Lili LEI Yangjinxi GE Zhe-Min TAN Yi ZHANG Kekuan CHU Xin QIU Qifeng QIAN key laboratory of Mesoscale severe weather/Ministry of Education School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210063China National meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

An ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) combined with the Advanced Research weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF) is cycled and evaluated for western North Pacific(WNP) typhoons of year 2016. Conventional in situ data, radiance observations, and tropical cyclone(TC) minimum sea level pressure(SLP) are assimilated every 6 h using an 80-member ensemble. For all TC categories, the 6-h ensemble priors from the WRF/EnKF system have an appropriate amount of variance for TC tracks but have insufficient variance for TC intensity. The 6-h ensemble priors from the WRF/EnKF system tend to overestimate the intensity for weak storms but underestimate the intensity for strong storms. The 5-d deterministic forecasts launched from the ensemble mean analyses of WRF/EnKF are compared to the NCEP and ECMWF operational control forecasts. Results show that the WRF/EnKF forecasts generally have larger track errors than the NCEP and ECMWF forecasts for all TC categories because the regional simulation cannot represent the large-scale environment better than the global simulation. The WRF/EnKF forecasts produce smaller intensity errors and biases than the NCEP and ECMWF forecasts for typhoons, but the opposite is true for tropical storms and severe tropical storms. The 5-d ensemble forecasts from the WRF/EnKF system for seven typhoon cases show appropriate variance for TC track and intensity with short forecast lead times but have insufficient spread with long forecast lead times. The WRF/EnKF system provides better ensemble forecasts and higher predictability for TC intensity than the NCEP and ECMWF ensemble forecasts.

关键词： ensemble Kalman filter typhoon prediction ensemble forecast

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Adding the impacts of biological crusts on sand and dust storm emission in Asia

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第3期14卷 406-415页

作者： Jian ZHANG Chun-Hong ZHOU Jian-Yan LU Hong WANG Xiao-Ye ZHANG key laboratory for AerosoleCloudePrecipitation of china meteorological administration Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China state key laboratory of severe weather and key laboratory of atmospheric chemistry of Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences&Institute of atmospheric Composition Beijing 100081China Center for Excellence in Regional atmospheric Environment Institute of Urban EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXiamen 361021China

Although biological crusts(biocrusts)grant stability to dust source areas by inhibiting dust emission,only a few models have explicitly considered their inhibitory *** this study,we used the china meteorological administration Unified atmospheric chemistry Environment/Dust model and combined retrieved biocrust information with two biocrust inhibition schemes(roughness length and biocrust strength schemes)to study numerically the inhibitory effect of biocrusts on a strong dust storm that occurred in Central and East Asia on 25−30 *** inhibitory effect of biocrusts on dust emission increased with biocrust *** total dust emission forecasted by the roughness length and biocrust strength schemes was reduced by approximately 56.7%and 47.9%on average,*** downstream sites in china,the surface mass concentrations of PM10 forecasted by the roughness length and biocrust strength schemes decreased by 36%–57%and 24%–41%,*** biocrusts were considered,the forecast for stations near the dust source area considerably improved and that for stations distant from the source area became more reasonable but with larger bias under the combined effects of emission,transport and deposition.

关键词： Biological crust Dust emission CUACE/Dust Roughness length scheme Biocrust strength scheme

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Southwesterly Water Vapor Transport Induced by Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during the South Asian Monsoon Transition Period

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Journal of meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 140-153页

作者： Beiyao LIU Ying LI state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Based on best-track,outgoing longwave radiation,sea surface temperature,and reanalysis data during 1979-2018,statistical and composite analyses were performed to investigate characteristics of the southwesterly water vapor transport(WVT)induced by Bay of Bengal(BoB)tropical cyclones(TCs)during the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)transition *** results show that the BoB TCs mainly occur several days before/after the date of SASM onset(retreat)in May(October-November),thereby imposing an important impact on southwesterly WVT to china in those two *** WVT is significant in the middle and lower troposphere during the bimodal peak periods of BoB TCs,with large values over the east-central BoB,southeastern Tibetan Plateau,and Southwest and South *** WVT is located more northward at 500 hPa than at 700 hPa,reaching close to 35°N and covering the southeastern Tibetan Plateau owing to weakening of the plateau’s blocking effect at upper *** BoB TCs mainly increase the northward and eastward WVT anomalies compared to the climatological ***,the large southerly WVT anomalies are located in the lower troposphere in low-latitude areas,while the large westerly WVT anomalies appear mainly in the middle troposphere in high-latitude *** indicates an enhanced WVT channel where the southwesterly moisture jet first climbs northwards to the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and then turns eastwards to East china under the influence of the BoB ***,the southwesterly WVT during the TC period in May is stronger and more widespread than that in October-November,being about twice the latter in ***,their maximum contributions to the climatological average do not differ much,with maximums of 12%and19%occurring in Southwest china during the bimodal periods,respectively,implying an important role played by the BoB TCs in the WVT.

关键词： tropical cyclones Bay of Bengal South Asian summer monsoon southwesterly water vapor transport anomalous characteristics

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CMIP6 Projections of the“Warming–Wetting”Trend in Northwest china and Related Extreme Events Based on Observational Constraints

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Journal of meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 239-250页

作者： Qian WANG Panmao ZHAI state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

This study presents the improved future projections of the climate“warming-wetting”trend and climate extremes with different return periods in Northwest china at different global warming *** projections are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)simulations constrained by the high-resolution observation dataset using the equidistant cumulative distribution functions(EDCDF)*** results indicate that the climate will experience continuous warming and wetting as reflected by average temperature and total precipitation over Northwest china,especially under the scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathway 5-representative concentration pathway 8.5(SSP5-8.5).Most parts of Northwest china will continue to warm in the future more than global ***,areas with prominent“warming-wetting”trends will be mainly distributed in western Northwest *** is worth noting that extreme heat and precipitation events will also increase with the climate warming and wetting over Northwest ***,frequencies of rarer extreme events will increase more apparently than weaker extreme events and frequency increase of extreme heat events responds to global warming faster than that of extreme precipitation *** global warming within 2℃relative to 1850-1900 would slowdown the increase in extreme heat events and considerably suppress the increase in frequencies of extreme precipitation events,especially the rare(i.e.,50-yr)extreme events.

关键词： Northwest china projection precipitation temperature extreme events

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New Version of the CMA-GFS Dynamical Core Based on the Predictor–Corrector Time Integration Scheme

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第3期37卷 273-285页

作者： Xueshun SHEN Yong SU Hongliang ZHANG Jianglin HU CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The operational numerical weather prediction system established by the china meteorological administration(CMA),based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)model,adopts the classical semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)time integration *** paper describes a major upgrade to the dynamical core of the CMA global forecast system(CMA-GFS),which was successfully incorporated into operation in *** the upgrade,the classical SISL is further developed into a predictor–corrector scheme,a three-dimensional(3D)reference profile instead of the original isothermal reference profile is applied when implementing the semi-implicit algorithm,and a hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate system is also *** new version of the dynamical core greatly improves the model performance,the time integration reaches second-order accuracy,the time step can be extended by 50%,and the efficiency is greatly improved(by approximately 30%).atmospheric circulation simulation is systematically improved,and deviations in temperature,wind,and humidity are *** new version of the dynamical core provides a solid foundation for further development of the entire operational system of the CMA.

关键词： Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) china meteorological administration global forecast system(CMA-GFS) predictor-corrector three-dimensional(3D)reference profile

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Objective Identification and Climatic Characteristics of Heavy-Precipitation Northeastern china Cold Vortexes

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2023年第2期40卷 305-316,I0009,I0010页

作者： Xu CHEN Xiaoyong ZHUGE Xidi ZHANG Yuan WANG Daokai XUE key laboratory of Mesoscale severe weather of Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China key laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of china meteorological administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041China National meteorological Center Beijing 100081China

The northeastern china cold vortex(NCCV)plays an important role in regional rainstorms over East *** the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis dataset and the Global Precipitation Measurement product,an objective algorithm for identifying heavy-precipitation NCCV(HPCV)events was designed,and the climatological features of 164 HPCV events from 2001 to 2019 were *** number of HPCV events showed an upward linear trend,with the highest frequency of occurrence in *** most active region of HPCV samples was the Northeast china Plain between 40°–55°*** HPCV events lasted 3–5 days and had radii ranging from 250 to 1000 *** duration of HPCV events with larger sizes was *** half of the HPCV events moved into(moved out of)the definition region(35°–60°N,115°–145°E),and half initiated(dissipated)within the *** initial position was close to the western boundary of the definition region,and the final position was mainly near the eastern *** locations associated with the precipitation were mostly concentrated within 2000 km southeast of the HPCV systems,and they were farther from the center in the cold season than in the warm season.

关键词： northeastern china cold vortex heavy precipitation objective identification climatological features

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