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Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

Science china Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

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Extraordinary hot extreme in summer 2022 over the Yangtze River basin modulated by the La Nina condition under global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 21-30页

作者： Zhen LIAO Yu-Feng YUAN Yang CHEN Pan-Mao ZHAI state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

A widespread and prolonged hot extreme hit the Yangtze River basin in summer 2022,with 300 sites established new temperature records and nearly 96%stations endured more than 40 hot *** the perspective of the combination effect of the global warming and La Nina condition,potential mechanisms of the hot extreme were *** a record-breaking hot extreme was caused by an extremely strong and westward-shifted western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).The global warming effect contributed primarily to the abnormal hot days in the Yangtze River basin,coupled with the modulation of the La Nina *** sea surface temperature anomaly pattern under La Nina condition favored more convection activities over the western Pacific,encouraging an enhanced and westward-extended *** addition,an observation-based attribution analysis indicates that anthropogenic warming may increase the probability of such extensively persistent hot extremeby1.8 times.

关键词： Hot extreme The Yangtze River basin Global warming Tropical Pacific forcing

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Significant contribution of carbonyls to atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)during the winter haze pollution over North china Plain

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第5期139卷 377-388页

作者： Xue Yang Gen Zhang Guang Pan Guolan Fan Houyong Zhang Xuan Ge Mingyue Du School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering Shandong Jianzhu UniversityJi’nan 250101China state key laboratory of severe weather&key laboratory of atmospheric chemistry of china meteorological administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Shandong Jinan Ecological Environment Monitoring Center Ji’nan 250101China

atmospheric carbonyl compounds play significant roles in the cycling of radicals and have exhibited surprisingly high levels in winter that were well correlated to particulate matter,for which the reason have not been clearly *** we measured carbonyl compounds and other trace gasses together with PM_(2.5)over urban Jinan in North china Plain during the *** higher carbonyl concentrations(average:14.63±4.21 ppbv)were found during wintertime haze pollution,about one to three-times relative to those on nonhaze days,with slight difference in chemical composition except formaldehyde(HCHO).HCHO(3.68 ppbv),acetone(3.17 ppbv),and acetaldehyde(CH_3CHO)(2.83 ppbv)were the three most abundant species,accounting for~75% of the total carbonylson both haze and non-haze *** from observational-based model(OBM)with atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)indicated that AOC significantly increased with the increasing carbonyls during the winter haze *** photolysis have supplied key oxidants such as RO_(2) and HO_(2),and thereby enhancing the formation of fine particles and secondary organic aerosols,elucidating the observed haze-carbonyls *** variation with carbonyls exhibiting peak values at early-noon and night highlighted the combined contribution of both secondary formation and primary diesel-fuel sources.1-butene was further confirmed to be the major precursor for *** study confirms the great contribution of carbonyls to AOC,and also suggests that reducing the emissions of carbonyls would be an effective way to mitigate haze pollution in urban area of the NCP region.

关键词： Carbonyls Haze Observation-based model Source apportionment atmospheric oxidation capacity

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Influence of meteorological factors on open biomass burning at a background site in Northeast china

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 1-9页

作者： Yulong Wang Linlin Liang Wanyun Xu Chang Liu Hongbing Cheng Yusi Liu Gen Zhang Xiaobin Xu Dajiang Yu Peng Wang Qingli Song Jiumeng Liu Yuan Cheng state key laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment School of EnvironmentHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150090China state key laboratory of severe weather&key laboratory for atmospheric chemistry Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Longfengshan Regional Background Station China Meteorological AdministrationHeilongjiang 150200China Heilongjiang Climate Center Heilongjiang 150030China

Biomass burning(BB)is a very important emission source that significantly adversely impacts regional air *** produces a large number of primary organic aerosol(POA)and black carbon(BC).Besides,BB also provides many precursors for secondary organic aerosol(SOA)*** this work,the ratio of levoglucosan(LG)to organic carbon(OC)and the fire hotspots map was used to identify the open biomass burning(OBB)events,which occurred in two representative episodes,October 13 to November 30,2020,and April1 to April 30,*** ratio of organic aerosol(OA)to reconstructed PM_(2.5)concentration(PM_(2.5)^(*))increased with the increase of LG/*** LG/OC ratio is higher than 0.03,the highest OA/PM_(2.5)^(*)ratio can reach 80%,which means the contribution of OBB to OA is *** to the ratio of LG to K^(+),LG to mannosan(MN)and the regional characteristics of Longfengshan,it can be determined that the crop residuals are the main *** occurrence of OBB coincides with farmers’preferred choices,i.e.,burning biomass in“bright weather”.The“bright weather”refers to the meteorological conditions with high temperature,low humidity,and without *** factors indirectly affect regional biomass combustion pollution by influencing farmers’active choices.

关键词： Air pollution Biomass burning meteorological factors Organic trace Agricultural fires

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Cloud Microphysical Characteristics of Typhoon Meranti(2016)during Its Rapid Intensification:Model Validation and SST Sensitivity Experiments

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 542-557页

作者： Rui WANG Yihong DUAN Jianing FENG Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai200438China state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Cloud microphysics plays an important role in determining the intensity and precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs).In this study,a high-resolution numerical simulation by WRF(version 4.2)of Typhoon Meranti(2016)during its rapid intensification(RI)period was conducted and validated by multi-source observations including Cloud-Sat and Global Precipitation Mission satellite *** snow and ice particles content were found to increase most rapidly compared with other hydrometeors during the RI *** all hydrometeors continued to *** graupel content only increased in the initial RI stage,and then decreased afterwards due to precipitation during the RI *** addition,sea surface temperature(SST)sensitivity experiments showed that,although the intensity of the TC increased with a higher SST,not all hydrometeors *** graupel content continued to increase with the increase in SST,mainly due to the accumulation of more lower-temperature supercooled water vapor at the corresponding *** content of snow decreased with the increase in SST because stronger vertical motion at the corresponding height affected the aggregation of ice crystals.

关键词： tropical cyclone rapid intensification cloud microphysical characteristics sea surface temperature(SST)

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A microphysical investigation of different convective cells during the precipitation event with sustained high-resolution observations

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 279-295页

作者： Ziheng HUANG Zheng RUAN Debin SU state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Electronic Engineering Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China key laboratory of atmospheric Sounding China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610225China

The growth and breakup processes of raindrops within a cloud influence the rain intensity and the sizes of raindrops on the *** Doppler velocity spectrum acquired by a vertically pointing radar(VPR)contains information on atmospheric turbulence and the size classification of falling *** this study,the four types of Convective Cells(CC)during precipitation events with more than 700 mm of precipitation in southern china are *** characteristics of four types of CCs correspond to the isolated convection,the early stage,the mature stage,and the decline stage of organizational convection,in that *** analysis using retrieval of vertical air motion(Vair)and raindrop evolution in clouds from Doppler velocity spectra collected by C-band VPR revealed the growth and breakup of falling raindrops with dynamic *** raindrops appear in the early stages and are accompanied by ice particles,which are impacted by the falling path᾽s *** aggregation,which is primarily related to the alternation of updraft and downdraft,accounts for the mature stage᾽s high efficiency of surface *** CCs in the decline stage originate from the shallow uplift in the weak and broad downdraft under conditions of enough water *** updraft dominates the stage of isolated *** of convective cells could be more accurately represented in model evaluations.

关键词： cloud microphysics convective systems convective cell vertically pointing radar observations Doppler velocity spectrum

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Raindrop Size Distributions in the Zhengzhou Extreme Rainfall Event on 20 July 2021:Temporal-Spatial Variability and Implications for Radar QPE

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 489-503页

作者： Liman CUI Haoran LI Aifang SU Yang ZHANG Xiaona LYU Le XI Yuanmeng ZHANG Henan key laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique China Meteorological AdministrationZhengzhou450003China state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Henan meteorological Observatory Zhengzhou450003China

In this study,a regional Parsivel OTT disdrometer network covering urban Zhengzhou and adjacent areas is employed to investigate the temporal-spatial variability of raindrop size distributions(DSDs)in the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event on 20 July *** rain rates observed by disdrometers and rain gauges from six operational sites are in good agreement,despite significant site-to-site variations of 24-h accumulated rainfall ranging from 198.3 to 624.1 *** Parsivel OTT observations show prominent temporal-spatial variations of DSDs,and the most drastic change was registered at Zhengzhou Station where the record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm over 1500-1600 LST(local standard time)was *** hourly rainfall is characterized by fairly high concentrations of large raindrops,and the mass-weighted raindrop diameter generally increases with the rain rate before reaching the equilibrium state of DSDs with the rain rate of about 50 mm h^(−1).Besides,polarimetric radar observations show the highest differential phase shift(K_(dp))and differential reflectivity(Z_(dr))near surface over Zhengzhou Station from 1500 to 1600 *** light of the remarkable temporal-spatial variability of DSDs,a reflectivity-grouped fitting approach is proposed to optimize the reflectivity-rain rate(Z-R)parameterization for radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE),and the rain gauge measurements are used for *** results show an increase of mean bias ratio from 0.57 to 0.79 and a decrease of root-mean-square error from 23.69 to 18.36 for the rainfall intensity above 20.0 mm h^(−1),as compared with the fixed Z-R *** study reveals the drastic temporal-spatial variations of rain microphysics during the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event and warrants the promise of using reflectivity-grouped fitting Z-R relationships for radar QPE of such events.

关键词： extreme rainfall raindrop size distribution radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)

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Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 937-958页

作者： Feifei SHEN Aiqing SHU Zhiquan LIU Hong LI Lipeng JIANG Tao ZHANG Dongmei XU key laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China china meteorological administration Basin Heavy Rainfall key laboratory/Hubei key laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205China National Center for atmospheric Research Boulder 80307COUSA state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National meteorological Information Center Beijing 100081China Fujian key laboratory of severe weather and key laboratory of Straits severe weather China Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350001China

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection *** show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same *** general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI ***,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical *** typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper *** impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is *** the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

关键词： FY-4A AGRI radiance particle filter multiple typhoons data assimilation numerical weather prediction

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The Performance of Downward Shortwave Radiation Products from Satellite and Reanalysis over the Transect of Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1574-1588,1671-1675页

作者： Jiajia JIA Zhaoliang ZENG Wenqian ZHANG Xiangdong ZHENG Yaqiang WANG Minghu DING state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

The downward shortwave radiation(DSR) is an important part of the Earth's energy balance, driving Earth's system's energy, water, and carbon cycles. Due to the harsh Antarctic environment, the accuracy of DSR derived from satellite and reanalysis has not been systematically evaluated over the transect of Zhongshan station to Dome A, East ***, this study aims to evaluate DSR reanalysis products(ERA5-Land, ERA5, MERRA-2) and satellite products(CERES and ICDR) in this area. The results indicate that DSR exhibits obvious monthly and seasonal variations, with higher values in summer than in winter. The ERA5-Land(ICDR) DSR product demonstrated the highest(lowest) accuracy,as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.988(0.918), a root-mean-square error of 23.919(69.383) W m^(–2), a mean bias of –1.667(–28.223) W m^(–2) and a mean absolute error of 13.37(58.99) W m^(–2). The RMSE values for the ERA5-Land reanalysis product at seven stations, namely Zhongshan, Panda 100, Panda 300, Panda 400, Taishan, Panda 1100, and Kunlun, were 30.938, 29.447, 34.507, 29.110, 20.339, 17.267, and 14.700 W m^(-2), respectively;with corresponding bias values of 9.887, –12.159, –19.181, –15.519, –8.118, 6.297, and 3.482 W m^(–2). Regarding seasonality, ERA5-Land, ERA5,and MERRA-2 reanalysis products demonstrate higher accuracies during spring and summer, while ICDR products are least accurate in autumn. Cloud cover, water vapor, total ozone, and severe weather are the main factors affecting DSR. The error of DSR products is greatest in coastal areas(particularly at the Zhongshan station) and decreases towards the inland areas of Antarctica.

关键词： downward shortwave radiation East Antarctic reanalysis product satellite product validation

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Anomalies of Precipitation over china on Days with Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Bay of Bengal: Role of Moisture Transport

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 368-382页

作者： Na WEI Ying LI Xiaoting FAN Nanjing Joint Institute for atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210041 state key laboratory of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433

Tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal(BoBTC)affect the precipitation over china,with distinct seasonal and daily *** study quantitatively examines the daily standardized precipitation anomalies(SPAs)over china on the days with BoBTC activities(storm-days)and related circulations,based on rainfall measurements at surface meteorological stations and ECMWF reanalysis data on a 0.25°×0.25°resolution during *** positive SPA is found over the stations in the two adjacent regions around BoB(Southwest china in May/November and southern Tibetan Plateau in October)and three distant regions(Southeast china and the northeastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in May,and central North china in October).The SPA distributions are remarkably consistent with the integrated water vapor transport(IVT)*** IVT is found associated with the interaction between southwesterly(southerly)of the BoBTC circulation and low-level monsoonal flow in May(midlevel westerly in winter months).The probabilities of extreme precipitation(EP)occurrences over the above regions all increase on *** adjacent regions,EP is significantly correlated with the northward IVT anomalies to the east of BoBTC circulation,which strengthen the water vapor input through the southern *** IVT anomalies are stronger in May,benefited by the deep monsoonal southwesterlies than those in *** distant regions,EP is more closely related to the IVT anomaly extending back from *** moisture from BoB concentrates along a local low-level convergence line over Southeast china,being further facilitated by coexistence of the BoBTC depression and midlevel westerly trough in *** results highlight the interactions between BoBTCs and local weather systems that influence the general precipitation anomalies and occurrence of EP over china,especially over distant regions.

关键词： tropical cyclone Bay of Bengal precipitation anomaly moisture transport

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