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The Subsurface and Surface Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Association with ENSO in CMIP6 models

Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第6期40卷 975-987页

作者： Ge SONG Rongcai REN state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

This study assesses the reproducibility of 31 historical simulations from 1850 to 2014 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) for the subsurface(Sub-IOD) and surface Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and their association with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the leading east-west dipole oscillation mode of heat content anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) but largely overestimate the amplitude and the dominant period of the Sub-IOD. Associated with the much steeper west-to-east thermocline tilt of the TIO, the vertical coupling between the Sub-IOD and IOD is overly strong in most CMIP6 models compared to that in the Ocean Reanalysis System 4(ORAS4). Related to this, most models also show a much tighter association of Sub-IOD and IOD events with the canonical ENSO than observations. This explains the more(less) regular Sub-IOD and IOD events in autumn in those models with stronger(weaker) surface-subsurface coupling in TIO. Though all model simulations feature a consistently low bias regarding the percentage of the winter–spring Sub-IOD events co-occurring with a Central Pacific(CP) ENSO, the linkage between a westward-centered CP-ENSO and the Sub-IOD that occurs in winter–spring, independent of the IOD, is well reproduced.

关键词： CMIP6 subsurface Indian Ocean Dipole surface Indian Ocean Dipole El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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Heating status of the Tibetan Plateau from April to June and rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia in midsummer

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Science China Earth sciences 2005年第2期48卷 250-257页

作者： DUAN Anmin LIU Yimin WU Guoxiong state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China

Based on the 1958-1999 monthly averaged reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the rainfall data of 160 Chinese surface stations, the relationship between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia (EA) in July and the sensible heating (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from April to June (AMJ) is investigated by using the rotational experimental orthogonal function (REOF) method. The results show that the TP is an isolated heating source in this period. The lagged correlation analysis between the first rotational principal component (RPC) of SH over the TP in May and rainfall of EA in July demonstrates that strong SH over the TP before July leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over the TP, the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and the regions south and southeast of the TP, and the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but less rainfall anomaly over the regions north, northeast, and west of the TP. Such rainfall anomaly patterns are shown to be well coordinated with those of the circulation and vapor flux fields, and are explained by using the thermal adaptation theory and quasi-stationary large-scale vorticity equation. Therefore, the status of SH over the TP during AMJ can be used as a predictor for the rainfall anomaly over EA, especially in the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau, sensible heating, East Asia, rainfall, circulation.

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A Quantitative Method of Detecting Transient Rossby Wave Phase Speed:No Evidence of Slowing Down with Global Warming

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第2期40卷 251-261页

作者： Yashu WU Jianhua LU School of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-Sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Guangdong Province key laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Based on the Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions(CEOFs)of bandpass-filtered daily streamfunction fields,a quantitative method of detecting transient(synoptic)Rossby wave phase speed(RWPhS)is *** transient RWPhS can be objectively calculated by the distance between a high(or low)center in the real part of a CEOF mode and its counterpart in the imaginary part of the same CEOF mode divided by the time span between two adjacent peaks(or bottoms)of two principal component curves for the real and imaginary parts of that CEOF *** new detection method may partly reveal the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of Rossby wave *** the mean westerly jet at 200 hPa doubles the speed of its counterpart at 500 hPa,the estimated RWPhS at both levels are around 1000 km d^(–1)and quantitatively consistent with the quasigeostrophic-theory-based RWPhS,confirming that the meridional potential vorticity gradient induced by the barotropic and baroclinic shears of mean flow,together with theβeffect,play an essential role in Rossby wave *** observations over the past four decades and a 150-year historical simulation suggest no evidence for slowing wintertime transient Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere,but possible regional changes are not *** emphasize that not only the mean flow speed,but also the barotropic and baroclinic shears of the mean flow,and their associated contributions to the meridional potential vorticity(PV)gradient,should be considered in investigating the possible change of Rossby waves with global warming.

关键词： Rossby waves phase speed quasigeostrophic potential vorticity

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A Case Study on the Role of Water Vapor from Southwest China in Downstream Heavy Rainfall

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2008年第4期25卷 563-576页

作者：潘旸宇如聪李建徐幼平 state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Based on the observation data analysis and numerical simulation, the development of an eastwardmoving vortex generated in Southwest China during the period 25 27 June 2003 is studied. The water vapor budget analysis indicates that water vapor in the lower troposphere over Southwest China is transported downstream to the Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys by the southwesterly winds south of the vortex center. A potential vortieity （PV） budget analysis reveals that a positive feedback between latent heat release and low-level positive vortieity plays a vital role in the sudden development and eastward movement of the vortex. numerical simulations are consistent with these results.

关键词： vortex, potential vorticity, heavy rainfall water vapor, numerical simulation

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Evaluation of the interannual variability in the East Asian summer monsoon in AMIP and historical experiments of CAS FGOALS-f3-L

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2023年第1期16卷 14-21页

作者： Xiaoqi Zhang Bian He Qing Bao Yimin Liu Guoxiong Wu School of atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

对东亚夏季季风(EASM)模拟的评估可以提高我们对亚洲季风动力和气候模拟的理解.在这项研究中,通过使用中国科学院(CAS)全球海洋-大气-陆地系统(FGOALS-f3-L)模式参加的第六次耦合模式相互比较计划(CMIP6)中的大气模式相互比较计划(AMIP... 详细信息

对东亚夏季季风(EASM)模拟的评估可以提高我们对亚洲季风动力和气候模拟的理解.在这项研究中,通过使用中国科学院(CAS)全球海洋-大气-陆地系统(FGOALS-f3-L)模式参加的第六次耦合模式相互比较计划(CMIP6)中的大气模式相互比较计划(AMIP)和历史(historical)试验,明确了EASM的年际变率的模拟能力.通过多变量经验正交函数(MV-EOF)分析发现,观测的EASM的主导模态为西太平洋上的太平洋-日本模态,并伴有局部反气旋异常.主导模态的方差贡献率为24.6%.历史(historical)试验可以基本再现这种空间模态,其方差贡献率较AMIP试验更接近于观测.与AMIP试验相比,历史(historical)试验还能更好地模拟EASM变率的时间频率.然而,由于历史(historical)模拟没有在积分开始时应用初始化过程,而AMIP试验受到海表面温度(SST)的约束,因此主成分(PC1)的位相在历史(historical)试验中没有得到较好地再现.进一步分析发现,印度洋和西太平洋热带地区的海气相互作用对EASM的模拟非常重要,而EASM气候变率的模拟可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的模拟能力有关,这值得进一步分析.

关键词：东亚夏季季风年际变化 CMIP6 模式评估 FGOALS-f3-L

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numerical Experiments for Typhoon Dan Incorporating AMSU-A Retrieved Data with 3DVM

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2008年第4期25卷 692-703页

作者：赵颖王斌 state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Two sets of assimilation experiments on a landfalling typhoon--Typhoon Dan （1999） over the western North Pacific were designed to compare the performances of two kinds of variational data assimilation schemes that are the 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation of Mapped observation （3DVM） and the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar）. Results show that：（1） both the 3DVM and 4DVar successfully improved the simulations of typhoon intensity and track incorporating the satellite AMSU-A retrieved temperature and wind data into the initial conditions, and the 3DVM more significantly due to the flow-dependent of background error covariance matrix and observation error covariance matrix like 3- dimensional variational data assimilation （3DVar） circle; （2） inclusions of extra model integration iterations at each observation time in the 3DVM make it more consistent with prediction model; （3） the 3DVM is much more time-saving due to the exclusion of the adjoint technique in it.

关键词： landfalling typhoon AMSU-A 3DVM 4D-Var numerical simulation

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Relationships between the East Asian-Western North Pacific Monsoon and ENSO Simulated by FGOALS-s2

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2013年第3期30卷 713-725页

作者：吴波周天军 state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The relationships between ENSO and the East Asian-western North Pacific monsoon simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 （FGOALS-s2）, a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model （CGCM）, are evaluated. For E1 Nino developing summers, FGOALS-s2 reproduces the anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific （WNP） and associated negative precipita- tion anomalies in situ. In the observation, the anomalous cyclone is transformed to an anomalous anticyclone over the WNP （WNPAC） during E1 Nifio mature winters. The model reproduces the WNPAC and associated positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China during winter. However, the model fails to simu- late the asymmetry of the wintertime circulation anomalies over the WNP between E1 Nifio and La Nifia. The simulated anomalous cyclone over the WNP （WNPC） associated with La Nifia is generally symmetric about the WNPAC associated with E1 Nifio, rather than shifted westward as that in the observation. The discrepancy can partially explain why simulated La Nifia events decay much faster than observed. In the observation, the WNPAC maintains throughout the E1 Nifio decaying summer under the combined effects of local forcing of the WNP cold sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） and remote forcing from basin- wide warming in the tropical Indian Ocean. FGOALS-s2 captures the two mechanisms and reproduces the WNPAC throughout the summer. However, owing to biases in the mean state, the precipitation anomalies over East Asia, especially those of the Meiyu rain belt, are much weaker than that in the observation.

关键词： coupled general circulation model tropical air-sea interaction interannual variability of mon-soon

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Contrasts of atmospheric Circulation and Associated Tropical Convection between Huaihe River Valley and Yangtze River Valley Mei-yu Flooding

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2012年第4期29卷 755-768页

作者：洪洁莉刘屹岷 state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The significant differences of atmospheric circulation between flooding in the Huaihe and Yangtze River valleys during early mei-yu （i.e., the East Asian rainy season in June） and the related tropical convection were investigated. During the both flooding cases, although the geopotential height anomalies always exhibit equivalent barotropic structures in middle to high latitudes at middle and upper troposphere, the phase of the Rossby wave train is different over Eurasian continent. During flooding in the Huaihe River valley, only one single blocking anticyclone is located over Baikal Lake. In contrast, during flooding in the Yangtze River valley, there are two blocking anticyclones. One is over the Ural Mountains and the other is over Northeast Asia. In the lower troposphere a positive geopotential height anomaly is located at the western ridge of subtropical anticyclone over Western Pacific （SAWP） in both flooding cases, but the location of the height anomaly is much farther north and west during the Huaihe River mei-yu flooding. Fhrthermore, abnormal rainfall in the Huaihe River valley and the regions north of it in China is closely linked with the latent heating anomaly over the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula. However, the rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and the regions to its south in China is strongly related to the convection over the western tropical Pacific. numerical experiments demonstrated that the enhanced latent heating over the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula causes water vapor convergence in the region south of Tibetan Plateau and in the Huaihe River valley extending to Japan Sea with enhanced precipitation; and vapor divergence over the Yangtze River valley and the regions to its south with deficient precipitation. While the weakened convection in the tropical West Pacific results in moisture converging over the Yangtze River and the region to its south, along with abundant rainfall.

关键词： Huaihe River Yangtze River mei-yu flooding tropical convection heating anomaly

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Diurnal Cycles of Precipitation over Subtropical China in IPCC AR5 AMIP Simulations

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2013年第6期30卷 1679-1694页

作者：原韦华 state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

atmospheric Intercomparison Project simulations of the summertime diurnal cycle of precipitation and low-level winds over subtropical China by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report models were evaluated. By analyzing the diurnal variation of convective and stratiform components, results confirmed that major biases in rainfall diurnal cycles over subtropical China are due to convection parameterization and further pointed to the diurnal variation of convective rainfall being closely related to the closure of the convective scheme. All models captured the early-morning peak of total rainfall over the East China Sea, but most models had problems in simulating diurnal rainfall variations over land areas of subtropical China. When total rainfall was divided into stratiform and convective rainfall, all models successfully simulated the diurnal variation of stratiform rainfall with a maximum in the early morning. The models, overestimating noon-time （nocturnal） total rainfall over land, generally simulated too much convective rainfall, which peaked close to noon （midnight）, sharing some similarities in the closures of their deep convection schemes. The better performance of the Meteorological Research Institute atmospherer. ocean coupled global climate model version 3 （MRI-CGCM3） is attributed to the well captured ratio of the two kinds of rainfall, but not diurnal variations of the two components. Therefore, a proper ratio of convective and stratiform rainfall to total rainfall is also important to improve simulated diurnal rainfall variation.

关键词： diurnal rainfall variation convective and stratiform rainfall IPCC AR5 models

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An Assessment of Improvements in Global Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in FGOALS-s2

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2014年第1期31卷 165-178页

作者： ZHANG Lixia ZHOU Tianjun state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-s2） in simulat ing global monsoon precipitation （GMP） was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-sl, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon （NWPM） and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s 1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negatiw,＇ pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Nina years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Nifia years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere （lower-troposphere） divergence （convergence） over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical as cent （descent） over the Southwest Indian Ocean （South African monsoon region）, inducing local excessive （deficient） rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMR especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.

关键词： global monsoon precipitation climate model annual mode climate change

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