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Interannual Relationship between Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Subsequent November Precipitation Anomalies over Yunnan in Southwest China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第5期36卷 718-732页

作者： Shabin HAO Jiandong LI Jiangyu MAO state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)strongly affects the climate variability over Europe and downstream East Asia similar to its winter *** study thus investigates the interannual relationship between SNAO and the subsequent autumn precipitation anomalies over Yunnan,Southwest China and related physical mechanisms based on reanalysis data during 1958–*** results show that the interannual variations in SNAO exhibit a significant positive correlation with anomalies of Yunnan precipitation in *** analyses demonstrate that for the positive SNAO phase,the positive sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in midlatitude North Atlantic as part of a tripole SSTA tend to weaken from summer to November through changes in surface heat *** turn,the predominately negative SSTA in tropical North Atlantic that persists into November induces an anomalous cyclone at midlatitudes,which triggers two middle–upper tropospheric wave trains propagating from midlatitude North Atlantic to *** subtropical wave train propagates eastward along the subtropical westerly jet,and the mid–high latitude wave train follows the great circle path across Scandinavia and central Asia to the Tibetan *** wave trains favor development of an anomalous cyclone over the southern Tibetan *** upper-tropospheric divergent condition on the southeastern side of the anomalous cyclone is dynamically conducive to locally ascending motion over Yunnan,thus producing above-normal *** opposite situation occurs in the negative SNAO phase.A coupled model reproduces well the wave train propagation and thereby confirms the positive relationship between SNAO and Yunnan precipitation in November.

关键词： summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO) Yunnan precipitation interannual variability Rossby wave propagation

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CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 DCPP Experiment

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1911-1922页

作者： Shuai HU Bo WU Yiming WANG Tianjun ZHOU Yongqiang YU Bian HE Pengfei LIN Qing BAO Hailong LIU Kangjun CHEN Shuwen ZHAO state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100864China

The outputs of the Chinese Academy of sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALSf3-L)model for the decadal climate prediction project(DCPP)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)are described in this *** FGOALS-f3-L was initialized through the upgraded,weakly coupled data assimilation scheme,referred to as EnOI-IAU,which assimilates observational anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST)and upper-level(0–1000-m)ocean temperature and salinity profiles into the coupled ***,nine ensemble members of 10-year hindcast/forecast experiments were conducted for each initial year over the period of 1960–2021,based on initial conditions produced by three initialization *** hindcast and forecast experiments follow the experiment designs of the Component-A and Component-B of the DCPP,*** decadal prediction output datasets contain a total of 44 monthly mean atmospheric and oceanic *** preliminary evaluation indicates that the hindcast experiments show significant predictive skill for the interannual variations of SST in the north Pacific and multi-year variations of SST in the subtropical Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean.

关键词： CMIP6 DCPP FGOALS-f3-L decadal prediction model initialization

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Dominance of terrestrial moisture supply for the record-breaking extreme precipitation in Hubei, China on August 12, 2021

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第6期13卷 851-857页

作者： Shi-Jia LIU Tian-Jun ZHOU Li-Xia ZHANG Dan ZHAO Jie JIANG state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

A record-breaking heavy rainfall swept across Suizhou of Hubei province in China on August 12,*** was characterized by suddenness and extremeness and caused severe socio-economic *** deepen the understanding of such an urban rainstorm and to improve the forecasting ability,this study revealed the dominant atmospheric circulation and moisture sources for this *** performed a Lagrangian model FLEXPART to understand this event in terms of moisture sources and transport *** key circulation systems affecting this extreme event were identified,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the low-level southwesterly jet and an anticyclone over northern *** low-level jet was lifted along the northern dry and cold air mass to form a front,resulting in the heavy *** moisture sources located on land contributed about 64%of the *** development of the low-level southwesterly jet in southern China was strengthened near the time of the precipitation occurrence,providing the main moisture *** China(23°-32.5°N,98°-122°E)was the most important source region,which contributed the most to the precipitation(43.6%).The results highlight the prominent role of the terrestrial water cycle in this extreme precipitation event over Hubei.

关键词： Extreme precipitation Moisture source Circulation Moisture transport

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Seasonal Prediction of the Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2021

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第3期40卷 410-427页

作者： Shuai HU Tianjun ZHOU Bo WU Xiaolong CHEN state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions,a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern ***,the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July 2021 and its seasonal predictability are still ***,the observed northward shift of the WPSH in July 2021 is shown to correspond to a meridional dipole pattern of the 850-hPa geopotential height to the east of China,the amplitude of which became the strongest since *** meridional dipole pattern is two nodes of the Pacific–Japan *** investigate the predictability of the WPSH variation,a 21-member ensemble of seasonal predictions initiated from the end of June 2021 was *** predictable and unpredictable components of the meridional dipole pattern were identified from the ensemble *** predictable component is driven by positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical western *** positive precipitation anomalies are caused by positive horizonal advection of the mean moist enthalpy by southwesterly anomalies to the northwestern flank of anticyclonic anomalies excited by the existing La Niña,which is skillfully predicted by the *** leading mode of the unpredictable component is associated with the atmospheric internal intraseasonal oscillations,which are not initialized in the *** relative contributions of the predictable and unpredictable components to the observed northward shift of the WPSH at 850 hPa are 28.0%and 72.0%,respectively.

关键词： western pacific subtropical high seasonal prediction seasonal predictability La Niña Pacific-Japan pattern

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Negligible Warming Caused by Nord Stream Methane Leaks

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第4期40卷 549-552页

作者： Xiaolong CHEN Tianjun ZHOU state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

Unanticipated sabotage of two underwater pipelines in the Baltic Sea(Nord Stream 1 and 2)happened on 26September *** quantities of natural gas,primarily methane,were released into the atmosphere,which lasted for about one *** a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO_(2),the potential climatic impact of methane is a global *** multiple methods and datasets,a recent study reported a relatively accurate magnitude of the leaked methane at 0.22±0.03 million tons(Mt),which was lower than the initial estimate in the immediate aftermath of the *** an energy conservation framework used in IPCC AR6,we derived a negligible increase in global surface air temperature of 1.8×10^(-5)℃ in a 20-year time horizon caused by the methane leaks with an upper limit of 0.25 *** the resultant warming from this methane leak incident was minor,future carbon release from additional Earth system feedbacks,such as thawing permafrost,and its impact on the methane mitigation pathways of the Paris Agreement,warrants investigation.

关键词： Nord Stream methane leak global warming potential climatic impact

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CAS FGOALS-f3-H Dataset for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project(HighResMIP)Tier 2

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1873-1884页

作者： Bo AN Yongqiang YU Qing BAO Bian HE Jinxiao LI Yihua LUAN Kangjun CHEN Weipeng ZHENG state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Following the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project(HighResMIP)Tier 2 protocol under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),three numerical experiments are conducted with the Chinese Academy of sciences Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model,version f3-H(CAS FGOALS-f3-H),and a 101-year(1950–2050)global high-resolution simulation dataset is presented in this *** basic configuration of the FGOALSf3-H model and numerical experiments design are briefly described,and then the historical simulation is *** by observed radiative agents from 1950 to 2014,the coupled model essentially reproduces the observed long-term trends of temperature,precipitation,and sea ice extent,as well as the large-scale pattern of temperature and *** an approximate 0.25°horizontal resolution in the atmosphere and 0.1°in the ocean,the coupled models also simulate energetic western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circulation Current(ACC),reasonable characteristics of extreme precipitation,and realistic frontal scale air-sea *** dataset and supporting detailed information have been published in the Earth System Grid Federation.

关键词： HighResMIP FGOALS-f3-H coupled model data description CMIP6

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Optimized Vertical Layers for the Hybrid Terrain-Following Coordinate Minimizing numerical Errors in a 2D Rising Bubble Experiment near Steep Terrain

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第6期37卷 896-907页

作者： Hao YANG Yiyuan LI Bin WANG state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China

The basic terrain-following(BTF)coordinate simplifies the lower boundary conditions of a numerical model but leads to numerical error and instability on steep *** terrain-following(HTF)coordinates with smooth slopes of vertical layers(slopeVL)generally overcome this ***,the HTF coordinate becomes very desirable for atmospheric and oceanic numerical ***,improper vertical layering in HTF coordinates may also increase the incidence of *** for the slopeVL of an HTF coordinate,this study further optimizes the HTF coordinate focusing on the thickness of vertical layers(thickVL).Four HTF coordinates(HTF1–HTF4)with similar slopeVL but different vertical transition methods of thickVL are designed,and the relationship between thickVL and numerical errors in each coordinate is compared in the classic idealized thermal convection[two-dimensional(2D)rising bubble]experiment over steep *** errors of potential temperatureθand vertical velocity w are reduced most,by approximately 70%and 40%,respectively,in the HTF1 coordinate,with a monotonic increase in thickVL according to the increasing height;however,the errors ofθincreased in all the other HTF coordinates,with nonmonotonic ***,analyses of the errors of vertical pressure gradient force(VPGF)show that due to the interpolation errors of thickVL,the inflection points in the vertical transition of thickVL induce the initial VPGF errors;therefore,the HTF1 coordinate with a monotonic increase in thickVL has the smallest errors among all the *** importantly,the temporal evolution of VPGF errors manifests top-type VPGF errors that propagate upward gradually during the time *** the HTF1 and HTF4 coordinates with a monotonic increase in thickVL near the top of the terrain can suppress this *** optimized HTF coordinate(i.e.,HTF1)can be a reference for designing a vertical thickVL in a numerical model.

关键词： hybrid terrain-following coordinate thickness of vertical layer numerical error pressure gradient force two-dimensional(2D)rising bubble experiment steep terrain

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Different Impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Precipitation in Southeast China between Early and Late Summers

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1885-1896页

作者： Junqi LIU Riyu LU state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO), which originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean and prevails over the Indo-Pacific region, on precipitation over Southeast China, including South China and Yangtze River Valley. The results indicate that the BSISO-related precipitation anomalies are remarkably different between early summer(May–June) and late summer(July–August). The BSISO-related precipitation anomalies tend to appear more northward in late summer in comparison with early summer. Accordingly, the BSISO is significantly related to precipitation anomalies over South China during many phases in early summer but related to very weak anomalies during all the phases in late summer. Such northward shifts of precipitation anomalies from early summer to late summer are clearest during phases 4 and 7, when the lower-tropospheric anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies dominate over the subtropical western North Pacific, respectively. Finally, we explain the differences between early and late summers through the seasonal northward migration of climatological equivalent potential temperature gradient, which is located in the South China during early summer but migrates northward to the YRV during late summer.

关键词： intraseasonal oscillation precipitation Southeast China

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Monsoon Break over the South China Sea during Summer: Statistical Features and Associated atmospheric Anomalies

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1749-1765页

作者： Minghao BI Ke XU Riyu LU state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study identifies break events of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)based on 42 years of data from 1979 to 2020,and investigates their statistical characteristics and associated atmospheric anomalies.A total of 214 break events are identified by examining the convection evolution during each monsoon *** is found that most events occur between June and September and show a roughly even ***-lived events(3–7 days)are more frequent,accounting for about two thirds of total events,with the residual one third for long-lived events(8–24 days).The SCSSM break is featured by drastic variations in various atmospheric ***,the convection and precipitation change from anomalous enhancement in adjoining periods to a substantial suppression during the break,with the differences being more than 60 W m−2 for outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)and 10 mm d−1 for *** convection/precipitation suppression is accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere,corresponding to a remarkable westward retreat of the monsoon trough from the Philippine Sea to the Indochina Peninsula,which reduces the transportation of water vapor into the ***,the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature()declines sharply,mainly attributable to the local specific humidity reduction caused by downward dry ***,it is found that the suppressed convection and anomalous anticyclone responsible for the monsoon break form near the equatorial western Pacific and then propagate northwestward to the SCS.

关键词： South China Sea summer monsoon monsoon break atmospheric circulation convection

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Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Strengthen the East Asia–Pacific Pattern during Summer

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第2期39卷 249-259页

作者： Sining LING Riyu LU state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)to the East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern during summer was investigated using the best track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets from 1979 *** results showed that the TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)correspond to a strengthened EAP pattern:During the summers of strong convection over the tropical WNP,TC days correspond to a stronger cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP in the lower troposphere,an enhanced seesaw pattern of negative and positive geopotential height anomalies over the subtropical WNP and midlatitude East Asia in the middle troposphere,and a more northward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in the upper *** analyses indicated that two types of TCs with distinctly different tracks,i.e.,westward-moving TCs and northward-moving TCs,both favor the EAP *** present results imply that TCs over the WNP,as extreme weather,can contribute significantly to summer-mean climate anomalies over the WNP and East Asia.

关键词： tropical cyclone East Asia–Pacific pattern teleconnection western North Pacific summer

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