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亚洲高山区冰川质量和融水径流变化预估

Science Bulletin 2023年第1期68卷 43-47页

作者：赵宏宇苏勃雷华锦张通效存德 state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China state key laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering College of Water Resource and HydropowerSichuan UniversityChengdu 610065China

冰川存储着大量的淡水资源,其融水对于下游区域农业、生态、社会经济发展具有重要意义.本研究基于偏差校正的CMIP6数据和集成冰动力学的冰川演化模型(OGGM)预估了21世纪冰川质量损失和融水径流的变化.研究结果可为依赖冰川融水区域的可... 详细信息

冰川存储着大量的淡水资源,其融水对于下游区域农业、生态、社会经济发展具有重要意义.本研究基于偏差校正的CMIP6数据和集成冰动力学的冰川演化模型(OGGM)预估了21世纪冰川质量损失和融水径流的变化.研究结果可为依赖冰川融水区域的可持续发展提供数据支撑和决策服务.本文研究发现:(1)在SSP245情景下(最接近当前气候变化的预估情景),21世纪末亚洲高山区冰川质量相比2000年约损失55%±3%.小冰川对于气候的变化更加敏感,约20%的小冰川(面积小于0.2 km^(2))极有可能在21世纪中叶之前消失.(2)亚洲高山区总冰川融水最有可能在2029~2056之前达到峰值.(3)亚洲高山区17个主要流域之间总冰川融水量与融水拐点出现的时间存在显著的时空差异,包含冰动力学的冰川模型预估的融水径流拐点相比之前的研究结果有所提前.

关键词：社会经济发展冰川融水偏差校正可持续发展质量损失气候变化拐点时空差异

1961~2014年中国大陆地区近地面气温和地表温度垂直递减率的空间格局和趋势差异

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Science Bulletin 2020年第14期65卷 1217-1224,M0004页

作者：贺嫣颐王开存 state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology College of Global Change and Earth System ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

近地表温度垂直递减率反映了地表大气稳定度.基于1961~2014年中国大陆地区约2200个地面观测站点数据,本研究计算并比较了地表温度和近地面气温温度垂直递减率(γTs和γTa)的时空变化.研究发现,γTs和γTa具有相似的多年区域平均和季节... 详细信息

近地表温度垂直递减率反映了地表大气稳定度.基于1961~2014年中国大陆地区约2200个地面观测站点数据,本研究计算并比较了地表温度和近地面气温温度垂直递减率(γTs和γTa)的时空变化.研究发现,γTs和γTa具有相似的多年区域平均和季节循环变化.但相较于γTs,γTa在高纬度地区的数值更高,并且夏季的γTs高于γTa.受大尺度平流影响,华北地区γTs和γTa较低,抑制了空气污染物的垂直扩散,而污染物积累可能会导致其进一步减少.因对地表太阳辐射、大气向下长波辐射及降水频率变化的敏感度不同,中国大陆地区γTs和γTa的长期变化趋势存在明显差异.温度垂直递减率在本研究的改进将有助于了解因全球变暖和污染事件的不断发展而引起的大气稳定性的变化,也将有利于未来有关区域气候变化的研究.

关键词：空气污染物地面观测站垂直扩散长波辐射大气稳定度季节循环中国大陆地区全球变暖

Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in northern China using an integrated SD and CA model

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Science China earth Sciences 2014年第4期57卷 839-854页

作者： HUANG QingXu HE ChunYang LIU ZhiFeng SHI PeiJun state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology (Beijing Normal University)

Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China.Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China,the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear.Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change.In this study,we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model(iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata.Then,we designed three drying trend scenarios(reversed drying trend,gradual drying trend,and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China.Finally,the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared.An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system.The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m3 among different drying trend scenarios,suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development.Under the pressures of climate change,water scarcity,and socioeconomic development,the ecotone(i.e.,transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change.Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends.Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe.The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment.In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China,issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use struc

关键词：干旱化趋势中国北方土地系统 CA模型模拟未来气候变化土地利用系统社会经济发展

Is the runoff coefficient increasing or decreasing after ecological restoration on China’s Loess Plateau?

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2021年第3期9卷 333-343页

作者： Haiyan Zheng Chiyuan Miao Guanghui Zhang Xiaoyan Li Shuai Wang Jingwen Wu Jiaojiao Gou state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China

The“Grain for Green”project(GGP)was launched in 1999 on China’s Loess Plateau to reduce soil erosion,which had far-reaching impacts on the local eco-hydrological processes.In this study,we use monthly runoff depth and precipitation datasets spanning 1961 to 2015 for 16 primary basins of the plateau to reveal changes in runoff generation capacity before and after the GGP.We use a Budyko-based elasticity method to calculate the runoff depth(R_(1))and runoff coefficient(C_(1))exclusively attributable to land use/cover change.Results indicate that the mean annual runoff coefficients(Co)decline by 26%—76%from the periods 1961—1999 to 2000—2015.The annual observed runoff depth(Ro)and C_(0)for 75%of basins show significant downward trends during 1961—1999;after the implementation of the GGP,both annual Ro and annual Co for over 50%of basins show upward trends.The study further finds that the increase of erosive rainfall during the period 2000-2015,whose mean increasing rate reaches 4.6 mm/year,is the main reason for the upward trends of Ro and Co.After removing the effect of precipitation variation during this period,we find that 11 out of 16 basins show decreased trends for Cj,with the downward rate between 2.4%and 6.0%per year.The reduction rate in semi-arid areas is about four times the rate in semi-humid areas.The results remind us to consider the carrying capacity of local water resources when implementing soil and water conservation measures across the Loess Plateau.

关键词： Loess Plateau Precipitation Runoff coefficient Budyko-based elasticity method Land use/cover change

Estimation of USLE crop and management factor values for crop rotation systems in China

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2015年第9期14卷 1877-1888页

作者： GUO Qian-kun LIU Bao-yuan XIE Yun LIU Ying-na YIN Shui-qing state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology School of GeographyBeijing Normal University

Soil erosion on cropland is a major source of environmental problems in China ranging from the losses of a non-renewable resource and of nutrients at the source to contamination of downstream areas. Regional soil loss assessments using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) would supply a scientiifc basis for soil conservation planning. However, a lack of in-formation on the cover and management (C) factor for cropland, one of the most important factors in the USLE, has limited accurate regional assessments in China due to the large number of crops grown and their complicated rotation systems. In this study, single crop soil loss ratios (SLRs) were col ected and quantiifed for 10 primary crops from past studies or re-ports. The mean annual C values for 88 crop rotation systems in 12 cropping system regions were estimated based on the combined effects of single crop SLRs and the percentage of annual rainfal erosivity (R) during the corresponding periods for each system. The C values in different cropping system regions were compared and discussed. The results indicated that the SLRs of the 10 primary crops ranged from 0.15 to 0.74. The mean annual C value for al 88 crop rotation systems was 0.34, with a standard deviation of 0.12. The mean C values in the single, double and triple cropping zones were 0.37, 0.36 and 0.28, respectively, and the C value in the triple zone was signiifcantly different from those in single and double zones. The C values of dryland crop systems exhibited signiifcant differences in the single and triple cropping system regions but the differences in the double regions were not signiifcant. This study is the ifrst report of the C values of crop rotation systems in China at the national scale. It wil provide necessary and practical parameters for accurately assessing regional soil losses from cropland to guide soil conservation plans and to optimize crop rotation systems.

关键词： cover and management factor,crop rotation system,soil loss ratio,rainfall erosivity,cropping system region

D2ANet:Difference-aware attention network for multi-level change detection from satellite imagery

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Computational Visual Media 2023年第3期9卷 563-579页

作者： Jie Mei Yi-Bo Zheng Ming-Ming Cheng TMCC CSNankai UniversityTianjin 300350China state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Recognizing dynamic variations on the ground,especially changes caused by various natural disasters,is critical for assessing the severity of the damage and directing the disaster response.However,current workflows for disaster assessment usually require human analysts to observe and identify damaged buildings,which is labor-intensive and unsuitable for large-scale disaster areas.In this paper,we propose a difference-aware attention network(D2ANet)for simultaneous building localization and multi-level change detection from the dual-temporal satellite imagery.Considering the differences in different channels in the features of pre-and post-disaster images,we develop a dual-temporal aggregation module using paired features to excite change-sensitive channels of the features and learn the global change pattern.Since the nature of building damage caused by disasters is diverse in complex environments,we design a difference-attention module to exploit local correlations among the multi-level changes,which improves the ability to identify damage on different scales.Extensive experiments on the large-scale building damage assessment dataset xBD demonstrate that our approach provides new state-of-the-art results.Source code is publicly available at https://***/mj129/D2ANet.

关键词： change detection building localization sate-llite imagery dual-temporal aggregation difference attention

Bias Correction and Ensemble Projections of Temperature Changes over Ten Subregions in CORDEX East Asia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第11期37卷 1191-1210页

作者： Chenwei SHEN Qingyun DUAN Chiyuan MIAO Chang XING Xuewei FAN Yi WU Jingya HAN state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Regional climate models(RCMs)participating in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX)have been widely used for providing detailed climate change information for specific regions under different emissions scenarios.This study assesses the effects of three common bias correction methods and two multi-model averaging methods in calibrating historical(1980−2005)temperature simulations over East Asia.Future(2006−49)temperature trends under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected based on the optimal bias correction and ensemble averaging method.Results show the following:(1)The driving global climate model and RCMs can capture the spatial pattern of annual average temperature but with cold biases over most regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau region.(2)All bias correction methods can significantly reduce the simulation biases.The quantile mapping method outperforms other bias correction methods in all RCMs,with a maximum relative decrease in root-mean-square error for five RCMs reaching 59.8%(HadGEM3-RA),63.2%(MM5),51.3%(RegCM),80.7%(YSU-RCM)and 62.0%(WRF).(3)The Bayesian model averaging(BMA)method outperforms the simple multi-model averaging(SMA)method in narrowing the uncertainty of bias-corrected results.For the spatial correlation coefficient,the improvement rate of the BMA method ranges from 2%to 31%over the 10 subregions,when compared with individual RCMs.(4)For temperature projections,the warming is significant,ranging from 1.2°C to 3.5°C across the whole domain under the RCP8.5 scenario.(5)The quantile mapping method reduces the uncertainty over all subregions by between 66%and 94%.

关键词： CORDEX-EA bias correction BMA temperature projection

Classification–coordination–collaboration: a systems approach for advancing Sustainable Development Goals

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National Science Review 2020年第5期7卷 838-840页

作者： Bojie Fu Junze Zhang Shuai Wang Wenwu Zhao state key laboratory of earth surface processes and resource ecology Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University state key laboratory of Urban and Regional ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences

It is an urgent task to advance Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on different scales in the world. We propose a systems approach to combat this issue, namely ‘classification–coordination–collaboration’. This approach allows SDGs to realize key breakthroughs over the short-term while achieving sweeping progress over the long run.

关键词： a systems approach for advancing Sustainable Development Goals coordination

Predictability of the winter haze pollution in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in the context of stringent emission control

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Predictability of the winter haze pollution in Beijing–Tian...