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A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North china

Science china Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 158-171页

作者： Shunli JIANG Tingting HAN Xin ZHOU Huijun WANG Zhicong YIN Xiaolei SONG Collaborative Innovation center on forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Recently, heavy precipitation(HP) events have occurred frequently in North china(NC), causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities. However, the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited. Combining year-to-year increment(DY) method and sliding correlations, we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs) in NC during 1982–2022, utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean(SST＿IO), February snow depth over North Asia(SDE＿NA), and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE＿NC). The SST＿IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern. The SDE＿NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia. The MSDE＿NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies. This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs, with a correlation coefficient(CC) of 0.81(0.65) between the observed and predicted HPDs＿DY(HPDs＿anomaly). The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs＿anomaly years(PSSE) is 100%.Moreover, in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022, the PSSE for HPDs＿anomaly is as high as 100%, along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14. For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022, the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs＿DY(HPDs＿anomaly) is 0.93(0.83), together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82) and agreement index(0.89). Specifically, the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2022, reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

关键词： Heavy precipitation at North china Year-to-year increment approach Robust seasonal prediction sea surface temperature Snow depth

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Three-Dimensional Wave-Induced Current Model Equations and Radiation Stresses

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china Ocean Engineering 2017年第4期31卷 418-427页

作者： XIA Hua-yong south china sea Marine forecast center State Oceanic administrationGuangzhou 510300China

After the approach by Mellor （2003, 2008）, the present paper reports on a repeated effort to derive the equations for three-dimensional wave-induced current. Via the vertical momentum equation and a proper coordinate transformation, the phase-averaged wave dynamic pressure is well treated, and a continuous and depth-dependent radiation stress tensor, rather than the controversial delta Dirac function at the surface shown in Mellor （2008）, is provided. Besides, a phase-averaged vertical momentum flux over a sloping bottom is introduced. All the inconsistencies in Mellor （2003, 2008）, pointed out by Ardhuin et al. （2008） and Bennis and Ardhuin （2011）, are overcome in the presently revised equations. In a test case with a sloping sea bed, as shown in Ardhuin et al. （2008）, the wave-driving forces derived in the present equations are in good balance, and no spurious vertical circulation occurs outside the surf zone, indicating that Airy’s wave theory and the approach of Mellor （2003, 2008） are applicable for the derivation of the wave-induced current model.

关键词： sea surface wave wave-induced current radiation stress vertical wave momentum flux

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Electrochemical conversion of methane to bridge the gap in the artificial carbon cycle

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Journal of Energy Chemistry 2025年第1期100卷 286-308页

作者： Yuhao Peng Yuefeng Song Ihar Razanau Juanxiu Xiao Wei Xiao Di Hu Guoxiong Wang College of Chemistry and Molecular Sciences Hubei Key Laboratory of Electrochemical Power Sources Wuhan University State Key Laboratory of Catalysis Dalian National Laboratory for Clean Energy iChEM (Collaborative Innovation Center of Chemistry for Energy Materials) Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory of Physical-Chemical Technologies SSPA Scientific and Practical Materials Research Centre of NAS of Belarus State Key Laboratory of Marine Resources Utilization in south china sea Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology School of Marine Science and Engineering Hainan University Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering University of Nottingham Ningbo China

Methane, an abundant one-carbon（C1） resource, is extensively used in the industrial production of vital fuels and value-added chemicals. However, current industrial methane conversion technologies are energy-and carbon-intensive, mainly due to the high activation energy required to break the inert C–H bond, low selectivity, and problematic side reactions, including CO2emissions and coke deposition. Electrochemical conversion of methane（ECM） using intermittent renewable energy offers an attractive solution, due to its modular reactor design and operational flexibility across a broad spectrum of temperatures and pressures. This review emphasizes conversion pathways of methane in various reaction systems, highlighting the significance and advantages of ECM in facilitating a sustainable artificial carbon cycle. This work provides a comprehensive overview of conventional methane activation mechanisms and delineates the complete pathways of methane conversion in electrolysis contexts. Based on surface/interface chemistry, this work systematically analyzes proposed reaction pathways and corresponding strategies to enhance ECM efficiency towards various target products, including syngas, hydrocarbons, oxygenates, and advanced carbon materials. The discussion also encompasses opportunities and challenges for the ECM process, including insights into ECM pathways, rational electrocatalyst design, establishment of benchmarking protocols, electrolyte engineering, enhancement of CH4conversion rates, and minimization of CO2emission.

关键词： Activation energy

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Innovative dual-mode device integrating capacitive desalination and solar vapor generation for high-efficiency seawater desalination

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Journal of Energy Chemistry 2025年第1期100卷 171-179页

作者： Jiacheng Wang Zhaoyu Chen Ruduan Yuan Jiaxin Luo Ben Zhang Keju Ji Meng Li Juanxiu Xiao Kuan Sun National Innovation center for Industry-Education Integration of Energy Storage Technology MOE Key Laboratory of Low-grade Energy Utilization Technologies and SystemsCollege of Energy & Power Engineering Chongqing University Xuefeng Mountain Energy Equipment Safety National Observation and Research Station CQU-NUS Renewable Energy Materials & Devices Joint Laboratory Chongqing University southwest Technology and Engineering Research Institute Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Bionic Functional Materials College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics State Key Laboratory of Marine Resources Utilization in south china sea Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology School of Marine Science and Engineering Hainan University

Solar-driven interface evaporation with high solar-to-steam conversion efficiency has shown great potential in seawater ***,due to the influence of latent heat and condensation efficiency,the water yield from solar-driven interface evaporation remains insufficient,posing a significant challenge that requires *** this work,we designed a dual-mode high-flux seawater desalination device that combines solar-driven interface evaporation and capacitive *** utilizing coupled desalination materials exhibiting both photothermal conversion and capacitance activity,the device demonstrated photothermal evaporation rates of 1.41 and 0.97 kg m-2h-1for condensate water yield under one-sun ***,the device exhibited a salt adsorption capacity of up to48 mg g-1and a salt adsorption rate of 2.1 mg *** addition,the salt adsorption capacity increased by approximately 32% under one-sun ***,photo-enhanced capacitive desalination performance was explored through numerical simulations and theoretical *** calculations and characterizations confirmed that the defect energy levels formed by the introduction of sulfur vacancies can effectively widen the light absorption range,improve photothermal conversion performance,and stimulate more photoelectrons to participate in capacitive ***,the electron distribution state of molybdenum disulfide with sulfur vacancies and surface defect sites contributes to ion/electron transport at the solid-liquid *** work provides a novel pathway for integrating solar vapor generation with other low-energy desalination technologies.

关键词： Desalination

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Assimilation of High Frequency Radar Data into a Shelf sea Circulation Model

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Journal of Ocean University of china 2014年第4期13卷 572-578页

作者： XU Jiangling HUANG Juan GAO Song CAO Yajing North china sea Marine forecast center of the State Oceanic Administration

High Frequency(HF) radar current data is assimilated into a shelf sea circulation model based on optimal interpolation(OI) method. The purpose of this work is to develop a real-time computationally highly efficient assimilation method to improve the forecast of shelf current. Since the true state of the ocean is not known, the specification of background error covariance is arduous. Usually, it is assumed or calculated from an ensemble of model states and is kept in constant. In our method, the spatial covariances of model forecast errors are derived from differences between the adjacent model forecast fields, which serve as the forecast tendencies. The assumption behind this is that forecast errors can resemble forecast tendencies, since variances are large when fields change quickly and small when fields change slowly. The implementation of HF radar data assimilation is found to yield good information for analyses. After assimilation, the root-mean-square error of model decreases significantly. Besides, three assimilation runs with variational observation density are implemented. The comparison of them indicates that the pattern described by observations is much more important than the amount of observations. It is more useful to expand the scope of observations than to increase the spatial interval. From our tests, the spatial interval of observation can be 5 times bigger than that of model grid.

关键词： data assimilation current radar shelf circulation model

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Role of the Greenland sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest china

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 1-5页

作者： Yang Liu Huopo Chen Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

Drought across Northwest china in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past *** study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest china caused by the precipitation *** analysis indicated that when the Greenland sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest china tend to be *** increase of sea ice in the Greenland sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the *** abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest china,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest ***,Northwest china experiences a more humid climate than usual.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Greenland sea North Atlantic SST Drought Northwest china

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Elimination of the impact of vessels on ocean wave height inversion with X-band wave monitoring radar

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2016年第5期34卷 1114-1121页

作者：王立吴雄斌马克涛田云费跃军 School of Electronic Information Faculty of Radio OceanographyWuhan University Marine forecast center of East china sea East China Sea BranchState Oceanic Administration

Directional wave spectra and integrated wave parameters can be derived from X-band radar sea surface images.A vessel on the sea surface has a significant influence on wave parameter inversions that can be seen as intensive backscatter speckles in X-band wave monitoring radar sea surface images.A novel algorithm to eliminate the interference of vessels in ocean wave height inversions from X-band wave monitoring radar is *** algorithm is based on the characteristics of the *** principal components(PCs) of a sea surface image sequence are extracted using empirical orthogonal function(EOF)*** standard deviation of the PCs is then used to identify vessel interference within the image *** mitigate the interference,a suppression method based on a frequency domain geometric model is *** algorithm framework has been applied to OSMAR-X,a wave monitoring system developed by Wuhan University,based on nautical X-band *** sea surface images captured on vessels by OSMAR-X are processed using the method proposed in this *** schemes are validated by comparisons with data from in situ wave *** root-mean-square error between the significant wave heights(SWH) retrieved from original interference radar images and those measured by the buoy is reduced by 0.25 *** determinations of surface gravity wave parameters,in particular SWH,confirm the applicability of the proposed method.

关键词： X-band wave monitoring radar vessel interference empirical orthogonal function(EOF) significant wave heights(SWH) frequency domain geometric model

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Surface tidal currents in the open sea area to the east of the Zhoushan Islands measured with high frequency surface wave radar

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2013年第10期32卷 5-10页

作者： SHEN Zhiben WU Xiongbin FEI Yuejun XU Xing'an CHEN Xiaofeng Radio Oceanography Laboratory School of Electronic InformationWuhan University Marine forecast center of East china sea East China Sea BranchState Oceanic Administration

Based on the quasi-harmonic analysis of 11 d vector ocean currents obtained from two high frequency sur- face wave radars located at Zhujiajian Island and Shengshan Island, the spatial distribution characteristics of surface tidal currents in the open sea area to the east of the Zhoushan Islands of Zhejiang Province, china are studied. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis： the tidal current pattern in the open sea area to the east of Zhoushan Islands is primarily regular semidiurnal, which is significantly affected by the shallow water constituents. The directions of the major axes of tidal current ellipses of M2 lie approx- imately in the NW-SE direction. With the increasing of distance away from the coast, the directions of the tidal current ellipses gradually shift toward the E-W direction. The tidal currents are mainly reversing cur- rents. The spatial distribution of probable maximum current velocities decreases gradually from northeast to southwest which is basically in accordance with the spatial distribution of measured maximum current velocities. The residual currents near the coast are larger than those far away from the coast. The directions of the residual currents are basically north by east, and the angle to the due north increases gradually with the increasing distance away from the coast. The topography shows a certain impact on the spatial distri- bution of shallow water constituents, the rotation of tidal currents, the probable maximum currents and the residual currents.

关键词： high frequency surface wave radar quasi-harmonic analysis Zhoushan Islands of Zhejiang Province of china spatial distribution characteristics surface tidal currents

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The Caroline Plate and plate subduction along the Mussau Trench

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Science china Earth Sciences 2025年

作者： Weidong SUN Tianyu ZHANG center of Deep sea Research&Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and ForecastingInstitute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Laoshan Laboratory University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

*** The oldest oceanic crust with ages up to 200 Ma,is subducting along the West Pacific Convergent ***,it is right next to a Cenozoic microplate,the Caroline *** Mussau Trench is located at the east end of the Caroline *** is a fossil subduction zone,which stopped in its infant *** subduction declines from the south to the north,and there is essentially no subduction at the north *** et al.(2025) described the structure of the Mussau Trench based mainly on geophysical observations,and proposed that the anticlockwise rotation of the Caroline Plate was responsible for the subduction initiation along the Mussau Trench.

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Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

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