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Quantitative analysis of torrential rainfall associated with typhoon landfall:A case study of typhoon Haitang(2005)

Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2009年第1期19卷 55-63页

作者： Caijun Yue a,b,a shanghai typhoon institute,the china Meterological administration shanghai 200030,china b Laboratory of typhoon Forecast Technique/china Meterological administration,Shangai 200030,china shanghai typhoon institute the china Meterological Administration Shanghai 200030 China Laboratory of typhoon Forecast Technique/china Meterological administration Shangai 200030 China

A quantitative analysis of torrential rainfall associated with typhoon Haitang(2005) is carried out using a modified moist ageostrophic Q vector and data from Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model *** major factors determining the ascending motion associated with torrential rainfall have been studied:large-scale and convective condensational heating,topographic lifting and *** results show that the convective condensational heating plays a major role in the torrential rainfall process,and the large-scale condensational heating is secondary before the landfall of typhoon Haitang,and vice versa after the *** topographic lifting affects the formation of rainfall,whereas the topographic friction has important impacts on torrential rainfall after the *** rainfall amounts forced by the topographic friction and lifting have similar horizontal distributions,but the magnitudes of the former are 2-3 times larger than those of the *** rainfall amounts forced by topography(lifting and friction) and modified moist ageostrophic Q vector have different horizontal distributions,and the magnitudes of the former are 2-5 times larger than those of the *** analysis shows that the typhoon rainfall may be motivated by modified moist ageostrophic Q vector and enhanced further by the topographic effects.

关键词： Torrential rainfall typhoon landfall Modi?ed moist ageostrophic Q vector Topography Condensational heating Quantitative analysis

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A deep learning-based global tropical cyclogenesis prediction model and its interpretability analysis

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Science china Earth Sciences 2024年第12期67卷 3671-3695页

作者： Bin MU Xin WANG Shijin YUAN Yuxuan CHEN Guansong WANG Bo QIN Guanbo ZHOU School of Software Engineering Tongji UniversityShanghai 201804China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China National meteorological Center Beijing 100081China shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

Tropical cloud clusters(TCCs)can potentially develop into tropical cyclones(TCs),leading to significant casualties and economic *** prediction of tropical cyclogenesis(TCG)is crucial for early *** traditional deep learning methods applied to TCG prediction rely on predictors from a single time point,neglect the ocean-atmosphere interactions,and exhibit low model *** study proposes the Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction-Net(TCGP-Net)based on the Swin Transformer,which leverages convolutional operations and attention mechanisms to encode spatiotemporal features and capture the temporal evolution of *** model incorporates the coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions,including multiple variables such as sea surface ***,causal inference and integrated gradients are employed to validate the effectiveness of the predictors and provide an interpretability analysis of the model's decision-making *** model is trained using GridSat satellite data and ERA5 reanalysis *** results demonstrate that TCGP-Net achieves high accuracy and stability,with a detection rate of 97.9%and a false alarm rate of 2.2%for predicting TCG 24 hours in advance,significantly outperforming existing *** indicates that TCGP-Net is a reliable tool for tropical cyclogenesis prediction.

关键词： Tropical cyclogenesis prediction Deep learning Feature fusion Interpretability Causal inference

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Evaluation of forecast performance for Super typhoon Lekima in 2019

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第1期16卷 17-33页

作者： Guomin CHEN Xiping ZHANG Qing CAO Zhihua ZENG Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster(Ministry of Education)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China shanghai typhoon institute of china meteorological administration Shanghai 200030China shanghai typhoon institute and Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone of China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China shanghai Marine Center meteorological Observatory Shanghai 200030China

The predictions for Super typhoon Lekima(2019)have been evaluated from official forecasts,global models,regional models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)at lead times of 1–5 *** errors from most deterministic forecasts are smaller than their annual mean errors in *** to the propagation speed,the propagation direction of Lekima(2019)was much easier to determine for the official agency and numerical weather prediction(NWP)*** National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System(NCEP-GEFS),Japan meteorological Agency Global Ensemble Prediction System(JMA-GEPS)and meteorological Service of Canada Ensemble System(MSC-CENS)are underdispersed,and the shanghai typhoon institute typhoon Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System(STI-TEDAPS)is overdispersed,while the ensemble prediction system from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)shows adequate dispersion at all lead *** deterministic forecasting methods underestimated the intensity of Lekima(2019),especially for the rapid intensification period after Lekima(2019)entered the East china *** of the deterministic forecasts performed well at predicting the first landfall point at Wenling,Zhejiang Province with a lead time of 24 and 48 h.

关键词： typhoon Lekima(2019) track intensity landfall point forecast verification

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Role of ENSO in the interannual relationship between Tibetan Plateau winter snow cover and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

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Science china Earth Sciences 2016年第10期59卷 2009-2021页

作者： ZHAN RuiFen DING YiHui WU LiGuang LEI XiaoTu shanghai typhoon institute of china meteorological administration Shanghai 200030China National Climate Center and Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disastersand Pacific Typhoon Research CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.

关键词： Western North Pacific Tropical cyclone Snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau ENSO Interdecadal shift

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Temporal and Spatial Distributions of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern china

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第5期23卷 598-608页

作者：万日金吴国雄 shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics

The spring persistent rains （SPR） over southeastern china （SEC） is a synoptic and climatic phenomenon that is unique in East Asia. Sufficient evidence proves that it results from the mechanical and thermal effects of the giant Tibetan Plateau （TP）, but its temporal span and spatial distribution are not clear at present. A climatological analysis of the NCEP/NCAR circulation and sensible heat data shows that at the 13th pentad of the solar year （lst pentad of March） there are remarkable increases in the sensible heating over the main and southeastern part of the TP, the southwesterly velocity over the southeastern flank of the TP and SEC, and rainfall over SEC, indicating the onset of the SPR. However, after the 27th pentad of the solar year （3rd pentad of May）, these variables, except for the sensible heating over the main part of the TP, decrease rapidly. The ridge line of the subtropical high in the mid-low troposphere over the South china Sea （SCS） slopes northward to the SCS and the SCS monsoon instead of southward as before breaks out, indicating the end The rain belt center over SEC shifts of the SPR. Hence, it is reasonable to define the SPR temporal span from the 13th to 27th pentad of the solar year. Data analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments show that, although the warm and cold airs converge at about 30°N in the SPR period, the distribution and intensity of the SPR rain belt are obviously influenced by the topography of the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains （NWM）. The mountains can block and lift cold and warm airs, strengthening frontogenesis and rainfall. As a result, the axis of the SPR rain belt is superposed over that of the mountain range. Accordingly, the spatial distribution of the SPR extends over most of the SEC, more specifically, to the south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （30°N）, and to the east of 110°E.

关键词： the spring persistent rains (SPR) temporal and spatial distribution the South china Sea monsoon mountain chains numerical model sensitivity experiments

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Numerical Simulation of Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using a Coupled Air-Sea Model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第5期27卷 658-672页

作者：端义宏伍荣生于润玲梁旭东 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

A coupled air-sea model for tropical cyclones （TCs） is constructed by coupling the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （MM5） with the Princeton Ocean *** numerical simulations of tropical cyclone development have been conducted using different configurations of the coupled model on the *** coupled processes are excluded,a weak initial vortex spins up into a mature symmetric TC that strongly resembles those observed and simulated in prior *** coupled model reproduces the reduction in sea temperature induced by the TC reasonably well,as well as changes in the minimum central pressure of the TC that result from negative atmosphere-ocean *** structures are successfully simulated under conditions of uniform environmental *** coupled ocean-atmosphere model is suitable for simulating air-sea interactions under TC *** effects of the ocean on the track of the TC and changes in its intensity under uniform environmental flow are also *** intensity responds nonlinearly to sea surface temperature （SST）.The TC intensification rate becomes smaller once the SST exceeds a certain *** stratification also influences TC intensity,with stronger stratification responsible for a larger decrease in *** value of oceanic enthalpy is small when the ocean is weakly stratified and large when the ocean is strongly stratified,demonstrating that the oceanic influence on TC intensity results not only from SST distributions but also from ***-sea interaction has only a slight influence on TC movement in this model.

关键词： tropical cyclone coupled air-sea model ocean-atmosphere interaction

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Hazard Footprint-Based Normalization of Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in china During 1983–2015

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第2期9卷 195-206页

作者： Wenfang Chen Yi Lu Shao Sun Yihong Duan Gregor C.Leckebusch State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science shanghai typhoon institute of china meteorological administration National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration School of Geography Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of Birmingham

Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In china, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in china. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, *** factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.

关键词： china Direct economic loss Loss normalization Tropical cyclones typhoon disaster risk

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Validation of Doppler Wind Lidar during Super typhoon Lekima (2019)

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第1期16卷 75-89页

作者： Shengming TANG Yun GUO Xu WANG Jie TANG Tiantian LI Bingke ZHAO Shuai ZHANG Yongping LI shanghai typhoon institute of china meteorological administration Shanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China State Key Laboratory of Mountain Bridge and Tunnel Engineering Chongqing Jiaotong UniversityChongqing 400074China

This study undertook verification of the applicability and accuracy of wind data measured using a WindCube V2 Doppler Wind Lidar(DWL).The data were collected as part of a field experiment in Zhoushan,Zhejiang Province(china),which was conducted by shanghai typhoon institute of china meteorological administration during the passage of Super typhoon Lekima(2019).The DWL measurements were compared with balloon-borne GPS radiosonde(GPS sonde)data,which were acquired using balloons launched from the DWL *** showed that wind speed measured by GPS sonde at heights of100 m)was found for DWL-measured wind speed time-averaged during the ascent of the GPS sonde from the ground surface to the height of 270 m(correlation coefficient:0.82;root mean square(RMS):2.19 m·h^(-1)).Analysis revealed that precipitation intensity(PI)exerts considerable influence on both the carrier-to-noise ratio and the rate of missing DWL data;however,PI has minimal effect on the wind speed bias of DWL ***,the rate of missing DWL data increased with increasing measurement height and *** PI classed as heavy rain or less(PI90 m·h^(-1)),only data below 100 m were *** to the height of 300 m,the RMS of the DWL measurements was nearly half that of wind profile radar(WPR)estimates(4.32 m·s^(-1)),indicating that DWL wind data are more accurate than WPR data under typhoon conditions.

关键词： Lidar WindCube GPS sonde Super typhoon Lekima precipitation

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DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第2期18卷 127-134页

作者：雷小途汤杰许晓林占瑞芬于润玲黄荣成吴联要 shanghai typhoon institute and Laboratory of typhoon Forecast Technique CMA Guangxi meteorological Observatory

Intensity variation of tropical cyclones(TCs),especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs,is of great concern in current *** of the research papers,however,focus on intensification processes of TCs;only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a *** the daily weather operation related to TCs,it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly,because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs *** of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in"crying wolf"mentality with adverse *** study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors:reduced level of air temperature,too large or too small speed,contraction of TC size amplification of TC's core,and lightning number in a TC.

关键词： tropical cyclone offshore intensity decay

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A DYNAMICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE WIND FIELD IN TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF OROGRAPHIC FACTORS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第2期16卷 125-133页

作者：郝世峰潘劲松岳彩军崔晓鹏杨诗芳 Zhejiang Meteorology Observatory shanghai typhoon institute of china meteorological administration LACS Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Based on the barotropic primitive equation in the polar coordinate system and the appropriate assumption, we obtained the mathematical equation of orographic forcing on unit mass air parcel. With the consideration of the frictional stress of the sea and land, supposing that parcel velocity in tropical cyclones is in linear variation and that the distribution of surface pressure is circular, a set of equations are derived, which describe the impact of orographic slope error, the central pressure error and position error of tropical cyclones on the wind field in the tropical cyclone. typhoon Wipha (2007) is selected to verify the above interpretation method. The results show that the orographic slope, the frictional coefficient, the intensity and position of the cyclone are the important factors which have great influence on the interpretation of wind information about tropical cyclones. The dynamic interpretation method gives very good results, especially for the coastal area. It is applicable to improving the forecasts of the wind field in tropical cyclones.

关键词： tropical cyclone orographic slope frictional stress strong wind dynamic interpretation

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