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Predicting PM_(2.5) Concentration in the Yangtze River Delta Region Using Climate System Monitoring Indices and Machine Learning

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 249-261页

作者： Jinghui MA Shiquan WAN Shasha XU Chanjuan WANG Danni QIU shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030 Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Iice System for Weather and Climate Ministry of EducationDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438 shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030 Yangzhou meteorological Office Yangzhou 225001 Department of Physics Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225003

Changing meteorological conditions during autumn and winter have considerable impact on air quality in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)*** climatic factors,such as sea surface temperature and sea ice,together with the atmospheric circulation,directly affect meteorological conditions in the YRD region,thereby modulating the variation in atmospheric PM_(2.5) *** study used the evolutionary modeling machine learning technique to investigate the lag relationship between 144 climate system monitoring indices and autumn/winter PM_(2.5) concentration over 0-12 months in the YRD *** calculating the contribution ratios and lagged correlation coefficients of all indices over the previous 12 months,the top 36 indices were selected for model ***,the nine indices that contributed most to the PM_(2.5) concentration in the YRD region,including the decadal oscillation index of the Atlantic Ocean and the consistent warm ocean temperature index of the entire tropical Indian Ocean,were selected for physical mechanism *** evolutionary model was developed to forecast the average PM_(2.5) concentration in major cities of the YRD in autumn and winter,with a correlation coefficient of *** model testing,the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed PM_(2.5) concentrations was in the range of 0.73-0.83 and the root-mean-square error was in the range of 9.5-11.6μg m-3,indicating high predictive *** model performed exceptionally well in capturing abnormal changes in PM_(2.5) concentration in the YRD region up to 50 days in advance.

关键词： PM_(2.5)concentration machine learning evolutionary modeling seasonal prediction

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Accurate Shortwave Radiation Simulation with a Two-Layer Aerosol Model in Xinjiang Region

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 69-87页

作者： Guan HUANG Yonghang CHEN Qiong LIU Pengtao WANG Qianshan HE Qing HE Shuai LI Weiling SHAO Ting FAN School of Tourism&Research Institute of Human Geography Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 center for Silk Road and Eurasian Civilization Studies Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 College of Environmental science and Engineering Donghua UniversityShanghai 201620 shanghai meteorological service Shanghai 200030 shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai 200030 Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China meteorological Administration Institute of Desert MeteorologyUrumqi 830002 Xinjiang Climate Centre Xinjiang Meteorological ServiceUrumqi 830002

To harness the rich solar energy resources in Xinjiang Region of Northwest China,this study tries to address the issue of lack of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR)observations and the need to improve the accuracy of satellite retrieval and numerical simulation of DSSR under varied sky and meteorological conditions.(1)A two-layer aerosol model specific to Xinjiang was developed to capture the vertical distributions of aerosols based on multiple data sources including lidar,GPS sounding,ground meteorological observations,and profiles from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA5)*** results show that the ERA5/PBLH(planetary boundary layer height)and ERA5/ALH(aerosol layer height)could be used to establish the two-layer aerosol model and characterize the vertical distribution of aerosols in Xinjiang Region.(2)Using the Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART)model,a localized inverse model of clear-sky DSSR was *** parameter adjustment and using the optimal combination of input parameters for DSSR simulation together with the two-layer aerosol model,the model-simulated DSSR(DSSRSBD)under clear-sky conditions improved significantly compared to the initial results,with all fitting indices greatly improved.(3)In addition,the study demonstrated that the impact of the two-layer aerosol model on DSSR was more pronounced under dust conditions than clear-sky conditions.(4)Using the localized clear-sky DSSR inversion model and its required parameters,simulations were also conducted to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of DSSR under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang from 2017 to *** annual average DSSR_(SBD)under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang during 2017–2019 was 606.78 W m^(-2),while DSSR from CERES(DSSR_(CER))under the same conditions was generally higher(703.95 W m^(-2)).(5)It is found that satellite remote sensing products experienced data loss in high-altitude snow areas,where numerical simulation technology could ser

关键词： downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR) aerosol vertical distribution Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES) Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART) Xinjiang

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Dynamic synthetic analysis of circulation field of tropical cyclones affecting shanghai

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Frontiers of Earth science 2024年第2期18卷 347-363页

作者： Wen GU Caijun YUE Zhihui HAN Yanqing GAO Yuqi TANG Xiangyu AO Yao YAO shanghai Ecological Forecasting&Remote Sensing center Shanghai 200030China shanghai Marine meteorological Centre Shanghai 200030China shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone(China meteorological Administration) Shanghai 200030China

Eleven tropical cyclones(TCs)affected shanghai and crossed the same latitude as shanghai from 2007 to *** to similar tracks from best-track data,TCs that cause significant precipitation in shanghai can be divided into three types:landfall TCs,nearshore northward TCs,and western *** on ERA5 reanalysis data,the dynamic synthesis method was used to synthesize TC circulation situations to compare thermal,dynamic,water vapor,and stability conditions within TC circulations during the period when they affected *** conclusions are as follows.1)When the three TC types are at the same latitude as shanghai,they are all in the divergent field in the upper *** the landfall type,the subtropical high at 500 hPa is stronger and farther north than usual,and there is a high-pressure dam on the north side of the TCs.2)The warm advection of the three TC types at 925 hPa is located in the northern quadrant of the *** dynamic and water vapor conditions are good in the north-western quadrant of landfall and western TCs,and more favorable in the eastern quadrant of nearshore northward TCs.3)The favorable effects of all three types on precipitation in shanghai come from the boundary *** vapor,upward motion,and instability conditions of landfall TCs are superior to the other two TC *** best water vapor,dynamic,and convective instability conditions are at the northern boundary in shanghai during landfall TCs,and the main sources of water vapor in shanghai come from the eastern and northern *** nearshore northward TCs,the main contribution to precipitation is from the eastern boundary,while better dynamic and water vapor conditions come from the western and northern boundaries during western *** above findings provide scientific and technical support for operational forecasting precipitation from TCs affecting mega-cities.

关键词： tropical cyclones dynamic synthetic analysis ERA5 reanalysis shanghai similar track

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Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Solar Energy Resources in Tibet

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Energy Engineering 2024年第1期121卷 43-57页

作者： Yanbo Shen Yang Gao Yueming Hu Xin Yao Wenzheng Yu Yubing Zhang Public meteorological service center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China center forWind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China School of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Geographical sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China

The Tibet Plateau is one of the regions with the richest solar energy resources in the *** the process of achieving carbon neutrality in China,the development and utilization of solar energy resources in the region will play an important *** this study,the gridded solar resource data with 1km resolution in Tibet were obtained by spatial correction and downscaling of SMARTS *** this basis,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of solar energy resources in the region in the past 30 years(1991–2020)are finely evaluated,and the annual global horizontal radiation resource is *** results show that:1)The average annual global horizontal radiation amount in Tibet is 1816 kWh/m^(2).More than 60%of the area belongs to the“Most abundant”(GHI≥1750 kWh/m^(2))area of China’s solar energy resources category A,and nearly 40%belongs to the“Quite abundant”(1400≤GHI<1750)area of China’s solar energy resource category B.2)In space,the solar energy resources in Tibet increased gradually from north to south and from east to ***,Central and Eastern Shigatse,Shannan,and Southwestern Ali are the most abundant cities,with a maximum annual radiation level of 2189 kWh/m2.3)In terms of time,the total horizontal radiation in Tibet was the highest in May and the lowest in December.74%of the total area belongs to the“Very stable”(R_(w)≥0.47)area of solar resource stability category A,and 26%belongs to the“stable”(0.36≤R_(w)<0.47)area of solar resource stability category *** energy resources in the region show the characteristics of both strong and *** solar energy resources in the region have shown a fluctuating downward trend over the past 30 years,with an average decline of about 12.86(kWh/m2)per decade.4)In terms of solar radiation resources reaching the earth’s surface,the theoretical total amount of annual horizontal radiation in Tibet is about 240.07 billion tons of standard coal or 222.91 billion kilowatts on average.

关键词： Tibet solar resource spatiotemporal distribution

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Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 118-131页

作者：张璐闵锦忠庄潇然王世璋魏莉青 Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological ServiceNanjing 210008 China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric sciences Nanjing 210000 China

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)*** cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on *** perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF *** vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case ***,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source *** the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive *** the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

关键词： convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth interactions added value

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Amplification effect of intra-seasonal variability of soil moisture on heat extremes over Eurasia

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 1-8页

作者： Yi-Nuo WANG Zhi-Yan ZUO Liang QIAO Kai-Wen ZHANG Mei-Yu CHANG Dong XIAO Zou-Xing LIN Huan WANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology Shanghai 200438China Key Laboratory of Cites Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in shanghai China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Collaborative Innovation centeron Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 211800China shanghai Frontiers science center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction Shanghai 200123China College of Geography and Resources science Sichuan Normal UniversityChengdu 610101China National Observations and Research Station for Wetland Ecosystems of the Yangtze Estuary Shanghai 202183China Chinese Academy of meteorological sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Drying soil has been conducive to a high frequency of extreme high-temperature events over many regions worldwide in recent ***,changes in the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture can also influence the likelihood of extremely high *** previous investigators have examined the association between extremely high temperatures and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability,the role of land-atmosphere coupling dominated by soil moisture variability in extremely high temperatures,particularly over the Eurasian continent,is not well *** this study,on the basis of the Land Surface,Snow,and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project,we found that land-atmosphere feedback amplified the variability of soil moisture in most regions of Eurasia during summer from 1980 to *** amplification of soil moisture variability is closely correlated with more intensive intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature and more frequent occurrences of extreme high-temperature events,particularly in Europe,Siberia,Northeast Asia,and the Indochina *** correlation implies that increasing the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture results in a high likelihood of heat extremes during summer in most parts of Eurasia except Asian desert *** the intraseasonal timescale,the land-atmosphere coupling increases the variability of surface sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation heating the atmosphere by intensifying the soil moisture variability,thus amplifying the variability of surface air temperature and enhancing the extreme high-temperature *** finding demonstrates the importance of changes in intraseasonal soil moisture variability for the increasing likelihood of heat extremes in summer.

关键词： Soil moisture Intraseasonal variability Land-atmosphere coupling Heat extremes

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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National Climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Climate Prediction center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since *** this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of *** found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global *** mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme *** Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time ***,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking *** warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong *** the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the ***,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley shanghai

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Characteristics of Lightning Activity in Southeast China and its Relation to the Atmospheric Background

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 76-88页

作者：支树林朱杰刘岩毛梦妮 Jiangxi meteorological Observatory Nanchang 330096 China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 China Innovation center for FengYun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China meteorological Administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041 China Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CICFEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210041 China Jiujiang Observatory JiujiangJiangxi 332000 China

Based on the lightning observation data from the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)Lightning Mapping Imager(FY-4A/LMI)and the Lightning Imaging Sensor(LIS)on the International Space Station(ISS),we extract the“event”type data as the lightning detection *** observations are then compared with the cloud-to-ground(CG)lightning observation data from the China meteorological *** study focuses on the characteristics of lightning activity in Southeast China,primarily in Jiangxi Province and its adjacent areas,from April to September,2017–*** addition,with the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data,we further delved into the potential factors influencing the distribution and variations in lightning activity and their primary related *** findings indicate that the lightning frequency and density of the FY-4A/LMI,ISS-LIS and CG data are higher in southern and central Jiangxi,central Fujian Province,and western and central Guangdong Province,while they tend to be lower in eastern Hunan *** general,the high-value areas of lightning density for the FY-4A/LMI are located in inland mountainous *** lower the latitude is,the higher the CG lightning density ***-value areas of the CG lightning density are more likely to be located in eastern Fujian and southeastern Zhejiang ***,the high-value areas of lightning density for the ISS-LIS are more dispersed,with a scattered distribution in inland mountainous areas and along the coast of eastern ***,the mountainous terrain is closely related to the high-value areas of the lightning *** locations of the high-value areas of the lightning density for the FY-4A/LMI correspond well with those for the CG observations,and the seasonal variations are also *** contrast,the distribution of the high-value areas of the lightning density for the ISS-LIS is more *** positions of the peak frequency of the FY-4A/LMI lightnin

关键词： lightning satellite and ground detections atmospheric background Southeast China

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Recent advances in landfalling tropical cyclone asymmetric rainfall mechanism and forecast verification over China

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 33-40页

作者： Zifeng Yu Peiyan Chen Fumin Ren Lichun Tang Weiwei Wang Hui Yu Kun Zhao shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research center ShanghaiChina Chinese Academy of meteorological sciences BeijingChina Nanjing University of Information science and technology NanjingChina Nanjing University NanjingChina

Held every four years,the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone(IWTC)organized by the World meteorological Organization has been a global leading conference in theﬁeld of tropical *** preparation for the 10th IWTC(IWTC-10)in December 2022,a summary of research advances of landfalling tropical cyclone(LTC)rainfall during past four years of 2019–2022 has been *** of the latest research advances has been summarized in Lamers et al.(2023),which reviewed the latest forecast and disaster prevention methods related to TC *** a supplement,this article mainly focuses on the recent advances in LTC asymmetric rainfall evolution mechanisms and forecast veriﬁcation results over *** newﬁndings have been made in the LTC inner-core size relationship with the asymmetric rainfall *** major advances focused on asymmetric microphysical characteristics in the TC *** simulation and forecast per-formances of LTC precipitation have been analyzed,and different forecast error sources for rainfall during different landfall stages of TC were *** estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in China,a parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model was reviewed as well in this article.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Landfall Rainfall Precipitation forecast veriﬁcation

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Evolution Mechanism of a Severe Squall Line Triggered by the Coupling of a Sea Breeze Front and a Gust Front

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 200-210页

作者：万夫敬孙敏庞华基赵海军赵传湖 Qingdao meteorological Bureau QingdaoShandong 266003 China shanghai Central meteorological Observatory Shanghai 200030 China Linyi meteorological Bureau LinyiShandong 276037 China Frontier science center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES)and Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of ChinaQingdaoShandong 266101 China

In the present study, a severe squall line(SL) was analyzed by using intensive observational surface data and radar monitoring products. In this process, mesoscale convergence lines, such as the sea breeze front(SBF), gust front and dry line, served as the main triggering and strengthening factors. The transition from convection triggering to the formation of the initial shape was mainly affected by the convergence line of the SBF, which combined with thermal convection to form the main parts of the SL. In the later stage, the convergence line of the gust front merged with other convergence lines to form a series of strong convective cells. The SBF had good indicative significance in terms of severe convective weather warnings. The suitable conditions of heat, water vapor and vertical wind shear on the Shandong Peninsula were beneficial to the maintenance of the SL. Before SL occurrence, tropopause folding strengthened, which consequently enhanced the baroclinic property in the middle and upper troposphere. The high sensible heat flux at the surface easily produced a positive potential vorticity anomaly in the low layer, resulting in convective instability, which was conducive to the maintenance of these processes. In the system, when precipitation particles passed through the unsaturated air layer, they underwent strong evaporation, melting or sublimation, and the cooling effect formed negative buoyancy, which accelerated the sinking of the air and promoted the sustained development of the surface gale. Together with the development of lowlevel mesocyclones, the air pressure decreased rapidly, which was conducive to gale initiation.

关键词： squall line sea breeze front gust front cold pool thunderstorm gale

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