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China & World Economy 2016年第5期24卷 1-4页

作者： Guanghua Wan Peter J. Morgan Director of research Asian Development Bank Institute Tokyo Japan senior consultant for research Asian Development Bank Institute Tokyo Japan

China has been growing at an unprecedented rate since economic reforms were initiated in 1978, achieving an average annual real GDP growth rate of 9.7 percent over the entire period through to 2015. Even more remarkably,

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Oil Markets in the Age of Murphy’s Law

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China Oil & Gas 2020年第1期27卷 63-68页

作者： Khaled Benelhadj-Said senior strategy consultant&research fellow CNPC

Murphy’s Law In 1866,mathematician Augustus de Morgan wrote:"The first experiment already illustrates a truth of the theory,well confirmed by practice,what-ever can happen will happen if we make trials enough."1This is sometimes referred to as one of the first formulations of Murphy’s Law,according to which anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

关键词： happen enough formulation

Longitudinal association of gonorrhea and bacterial vaginosis with repeat chlamydia diagnoses among U.S. Army women: A retrospective cohort analysis

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Military Medical research 2019年第2期6卷 128-134页

作者： Christian TBautista Eyako KWurapa Warren BSateren Bruce PHollingsworth Jose LSanchez Division of Health research Lancaster UniversityLancasterUK Walter Reed Army Institute of research Silver SpringMDUSA senior research consultant WashingtonDCUSA Armed ForcesHealth Surveillance Branch Public Health DivisionDefense HealthAgencySilver SpringMDUSA.

Background: Historically, sexually transmitted infections have affected the health of the U.S. military. To determine whether gonorrhea, bacterial vaginosis, genital herpes, and trichomoniasis are predictors of repeat chlamydia diagnoses among U.S. Army women, medical data reported into the Defense Medical Surveillance System during the 2006–2012 period were ***: For all inpatient and outpatient medical records, the first and second International Classification of Diseases,version 9(ICD-9) diagnostic positions were reviewed for each chlamydia case to determine the occurrence of repeat diagnoses. The Andersen-Gill regression model, an extension of the Cox model for multiple failure-time data, was used to study associations between predictors and repeat chlamydia ***: Among 28,201 women with a first chlamydia diagnosis, 5145(18.2%), 1163(4.1%), 267(0.9%), and 88(0.3%)had one, two, three, and four or more repeat diagnoses, respectively. Overall, the incidence of repeat chlamydia was8.31 cases per 100 person-years, with a median follow-up time of 3.39 years. Gonorrhea(hazard ratio(HR)=1.58, 95%CI: 1.44–1.73) and bacterial vaginosis(HR=1.40, 95% CI: 1.09–1.79) were significant predictors for repeat *** estimated hazard ratios were attenuated, but remained significant, after controlling for age, race/ethnicity,marital status, and military rank. No significant association was found for genital herpes(HR=1.13, 95% CI: 0.55–2.29)and trichomoniasis(HR=1.43, 95% CI: 0.43–4.68).Conclusions: This large cohort study suggests that gonorrhea and bacterial vaginosis were associated with repeat chlamydia diagnoses among U.S. Army women. These findings can be used in formulating new interventions to prevent repeat chlamydia diagnoses.

关键词： Gonorrhea Bacterial vaginosis Chlamydia Sexually transmitted infection Military

Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium-term to Long-term Growth in China

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China & World Economy 2016年第5期24卷 20-41页

作者： Justin Yifu Lin Guanghua Wan Peter J. Morgan Director Center for New Structural Economics National School of Development PekingUniversity China Director Research Department Asian Development Bank Institute Japan senior consultant for research Research Department Asian Development Bank Institute Japan

China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978-2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature？ This paper reviews the recent literature on the determinants and outlook for real GDP growth in China and addresses some of the key issues, including identifying supply-side factors that can support continued strong growth under favorable conditions, as well as risk factors that might cause growth to fall short. The paper reviews supply-side determinants of growth using a growth accounting framework, and also assesses major demand-side factors driving potential growth, including exports, capital formation and household consumption.

关键词： China demand-side factors long-term growth supply-side factors total factor productivity

Prehabilitation in elderly patients scheduled for liver resection and protocol for Recovery Of Surgery in Elderly

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Hepatoma research 2020年第3期6卷 50-59页

作者： Ramkumar Mohan Cheong Wei Terence Huey Sameer Junnarkar Jee Keem Low Vishal G.Shelat Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University of SingaporeSingapore senior consultant Hepatopancreaticobiliary SurgeryTan Tock Seng HospitalSingapore

Ageing population of first world economies pose unique challenges to surgical *** recovery after surgery protocols and pathways do not attempt to optimize or enhance physical function of patients by customized program of physical ***,prehabilitation programs(PP)have gained momentum in orthopaedics,urology,colorectal surgery and hepatopancreaticobiliary *** evidence of PP in various elective surgical procedures have shown improved outcomes with minimal to none drawback or *** is emerging evidence of role of PP in elective liver *** aim of this paper is to review the basis of PP and share local multidisciplinary team protocol specifically customized to frail and elderly population-Recovery Of Surgery in Elderly.

关键词： Prehabilitation liver resection hepatocellular carcinoma pre-operative exercise ageing

Numerical Simulation on a Tremendous Debris Flow Caused by Typhoon Morakot in the Jiaopu Stream,Taiwan

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Journal of Mountain Science 2014年第1期11卷 1-18页

作者： HSU Yu-chao YEN Haw TSENG Wen-hsiao JAN Chyan-deng Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering National Cheng Kung University Blackland research and Extension Center Texas A&M AgriLife Research Sun-Rise Engineering consultant Company

In August 2009,Typhoon Morakot brought a large amount of rainfall with both high intensity and long duration to a vast area of ***,this resulted in a catastrophic landslide in Hsiaolin Village,***,large amounts of landslides were formed in the Jiaopu Stream watershed near the southeast part of the Hsiaolin *** Hsiaolin Village access road(Provincial Highway No.21 and Bridge No.8) was completely destroyed by the landslide and consequent debris *** major scope of this study is to apply a debris flow model to simulate the disaster caused by the debris flow that occurred in the Jiaopu Stream during Typhoon *** to the interviews with local residents,this study applied the destruction time of Bridge No.8 and Chen's house to verify the numerical debris flow *** the spatial rainfall distributions information,the numerical simulations of the debris flow are conducted in two *** the first stage(before the landslide-dam failure),the elevation of the debris flow and the corresponding potential damages toward residential properties were *** the second stage(after the landslidedam failure),comparisons of simulation results between the longitudinal and cross profiles of the Jiaopu Stream were performed using topographic maps and satellite *** summary,applications of the adopted numerical debris flow model have shown positive impact on supporting better understanding of the occurrence and movement of debris flow processes.

关键词： Typhoon Morakot Debris flow Numerical simulation Jiaopu Stream Hsiaolin Village

Management of difficult inflammatory bowel disease:where are we now?

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2000年第3期6卷 315-323页

作者： D.S. Rampton Reader & consultant Gastroenterologist Gastrointestinal Science Research Unit and Digestive Diseases Research CentreSt Bartholomews & Royal London School of Medicine and DentistryLondon E1 2ADUK

INTRODUCTION Medical care of patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) comprise general measures and specific pharmacological,nutritional,endoscopic and surgical

关键词： inflammatory bowel diseases/therapy colitis/therapy Crohn disease/therapy endoscopy gastrointestinal social support azathioprine

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Its Indicators——Where Does Health Fit in?

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第2期8卷 150-155页

作者： Rishma Maini Lorcan Clarke Kevin Blanchard Virginia Murray Public Health Registrar in Global Disaster Risk Reduction Public Health England research Analyst Intern in Global Disaster Risk Reduction Public Health England senior Environmental Scientist in Global Disaster Risk Reduction Public Health England Public Health consultant in Global Disaster Risk Reduction Public Health England United Nations International Strategy for Disaster ReductionScientific and Technical Advisory Group Integrated research on Disaster Risk Reduction Scientific Committee

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recognizes the strong connection between health and disasters and promotes the concept of health resilience *** of the seven global targets stated in the Sendai Framework are directly related to health in terms of reducing disaster mortality,the number of affected people,disaster damage to critical infrastructure,and disruption of basic services such as health *** Sendai Framework also maintains close coordination with other United Nations landmark agreements relevant to health such as the Sustainable Development ***,the measurement of healthrelated indicators is *** arise,for example,in linking deaths to disasters because of the complex interplay between exposure,risk,vulnerability,and *** lack of a universal classification of disasters also means that recording of health data in disasters is not *** the guidelines to enable data onthe indicators to be collected and reported to support the Sendai targets requires detailed thinking,time,and consultation with a diverse range of *** collaboration and partnership will be vital to achieving success.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Global health targets Health indicators Sendai Framework

Patients with Crohn’s disease have longer post-operative in-hospital stay than patients with colon cancer but no difference in complications’ rate

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2019年第5期11卷 261-270页

作者： 2015 European Society of Coloproctology(ESCP)collaborating group Alaa El-Hussuna 不详 Academic research Consultant SurgeonDepartment of SurgeryAalborg University HospitalHobrovej 18-22Aalborg 9100Denmark

BACKGROUND Right hemicolectomy or ileocecal resection are used to treat benign conditions like Crohn’s disease(CD)and malignant ones like colon cancer(CC).AIM To investigate differences in pre-and peri-operative factors and their impact on post-operative outcome in patients with CC and *** This is a sub-group analysis of the European Society of Coloproctology’s prospective,multi-centre snapshot *** patients with CC and CD undergoing right hemicolectomy or ileocecal resection were *** outcome measure was 30-d post-operative *** outcome measures were post-operative length of stay(LOS)at and *** Three hundred and seventy-five patients with CD and 2,515 patients with CC were *** with CD were younger(median=37 years for CD and 71 years for CC(P<0.01),had lower American Society of Anesthesiology score(ASA)grade(P<0.01)and less comorbidity(P<0.01),but were more likely to be current smokers(P<0.01).Patients with CD were more frequently operated on by colorectal surgeons(P<0.01)and frequently underwent ileocecal resection(P<0.01)with higher rate of de-functioning/primary stoma construction(P<0.01).Thirty-day post-operative mortality occurred exclusively in the CC group(66/2515,2.3%).In multivariate analyses,the risk of post-operative complications was similar in the two groups(OR 0.80,95%CI:0.54-1.17;P=0.25).Patients with CD had a significantly longer LOS(Geometric mean 0.87,95%CI:0.79-0.95;P<0.01).There was no difference in re-admission *** audit did not collect data on post-operative enhanced recovery protocols that are implemented in the different participating *** Patients with CD were younger,with lower ASA grade,less comorbidity,operated on by experienced surgeons and underwent less radical resection but had a longer LOS than patients with CC although complications'rate was not different between the two groups.

关键词： Crohn’s disease Colon cancer Complications Length of stay Bowel resection Right hemicolectomy