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Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime:A case-crossover study of eight cities in America

Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2024年第1期5卷 13-36页

作者： Jinming Hu Xiaofeng Hu Xin’ge Han Yan Lin Huanggang Wu Bing Shen school of Information Technology and Cyber security People’s Public Security University of ChinaBeijing 100038China Center for Capital Social Safety People’s Public Security University of ChinaBeijing 100038China China Association for public Safety Beijing 100084China school of emergency management and Safety Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyBeijing 100083China school of International Police Studies People’s Public Security University of ChinaBeijing 100038China

Recent years have seen increasing academic interest in exploring the correlation between temperature and crime.However,it is uncertain whether similar long-term trends or seasonality(rather than causal effect)of temper-ature and crime is the major reason for the observed correlation between them.To explore whether there is still a correlation between temperature and crime when long-term trends and seasonal cycles are filtered out,we use the Kalman filter to decompose the time series of temperature and crimes,and then the fast Fourier transform is used to calculate the exact circle of their seasonality separately.Based on that,the box-plot method and linear regression are used to explore the correlation between temperature residuals and crime residuals.The results show that more than half of the crime types have similar seasonal cycles(approximately 1 year)to that of temperature.Moreover,the daily residual analyses show that temperature residuals have a positive correlation with assault and robbery residuals in all cities,whose average slopes are more than 0.1.The other four types of crimes vary greatly from case to case.The temperature residuals show a weak correlation with the residuals of some crime types.

关键词： Time series decomposition Crime Temperature Kalman filter Fast fourier transform

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Survey on Fake Information Generation,Dissemination and Detection

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Chinese Journal of Electronics 2024年第3期33卷 573-583页

作者： Wanqiu CUI Dawei WANG Na HAN school of National security People's Public Security University of China Big Data Center of The Ministry of public security

The current booming development of the Internet has put the public in an era of information overload,in which false information is mixed and spread unscrupulously.This phenomenon has seriously disturbed the social network order.Thus,a substantial amount of research is beginning to be devoted to the effective management of fake information.We analyze the abnormal characteristics of fake information from its mechanism of generation and dissemination.In view of different exceptional features,we systematically sort out and evaluate the existing studies on false content detection.The commonly used public datasets,metrics,and performance are categorized and compared,hoping to provide a basis and guidance for related research.The study found that the current active social platforms show different novelty.The future direction should point to mining platform features of multi-domain sources,multi-data forms,and multi-language heterogeneity to provide more valuable clues for fake information.

关键词： Fake information Abnormal characteristics Detection methods public datasets

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A strategy to synthesize phosphorus-containing nickel phyllosilicate whiskers to enhance the flame retardancy of epoxy composites with excellent mechanical and dry-friction properties

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Frontiers of Chemical Science and Engineering 2024年第3期18卷 39-50页

作者： Shibin Nie Zongquan Zhao Yuxuan Xu Wei He Wenli Zhai Jinian Yang school of public security and emergency management Anhui University of Science and TechnologyHefei231131China school of Safety Science and Engineering Anhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan232001China school of Materials Science and Engineering Anhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan232001China Institute of Energy Hefei Comprehensive National Science CenterHefei230000China

To enhance the fire safety and wear resistance of epoxy,phosphorus-containing nickel phyllosilicate whiskers(FP-NiPS)were synthesized using a facile hydrothermal technology,with 9,10-dihydro-9-oxa-10-phosphaphenanthrene as the organic modifier.The impacts of FP-NiPS on the thermal stability,flame retardancy,and mechanical and tribological properties of EP composites were explored.The findings demonstrated that 5 wt%FP-NiPS elevated the limiting oxygen index of the EP composite from 23.8%to 28.4%,achieving a V-0 rating during vertical burning tests.FP-NiPS could enhance the thermal stability of epoxy resin(EP)and facilitate the development of a dense and continuous carbon layer,thereby significantly improving the fire safety of the EP composites.The FP-NiPS led to an 8.2%increase in the tensile strength and a 38.8%increase in the elastic modulus of the EP composite,showing outstanding mechanical properties.Furthermore,FP-NiPS showed remarkable potential in enhancing the wear resistance of EP.The wear rate of 1 wt%FP-NiPS is 2.34×10^(−5) mm^(3)·N^(−1)·m^(−1),a decrease of 66.7%compared to EP.This work provides a novel promising modification method to enhance the fire safety,mechanical and wear resistance properties of EP.

关键词： nickel phyllosilicate epoxy resin flame retardant wear resistance mechanical property

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Effect of relative humidity on the desulfurization performance of calcium-based desulfurizer

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 179-188页

作者： Juan Lǖ Yu Fu Haiyan Yu HuanWang Zhe Wang Haiyan Chen school of Environment and Resource Southwest University of Science and TechnologyMianyang 621010China Guangyuan emergency management bureau Guangyuan 628000China

Low desulfurization efficiency impedes the wide application of dry desulfurization technology,which is a low-cost and simple process,and one significant solution is the development and manufacture of high-performance desulfurizers.In this study,firstly,a steam jet mill was used to digest quicklime;then,we utilized numerical simulation to study the flow field distribution and analyze the driving factors of quicklime digestion;and lastly,the desulfurization performance of the desulfurizer was evaluated under different relative humidities.The results show that the desulfurizer prepared via the steam jet mill had better apparent activity than traditional desulfurizers.Also,the entire jet flow field of the steam jet mill is in a supersonic and highly turbulent flow state,with high crushing intensity and good particle acceleration performance.Sufficient contact with the nascent surface maximizes the formation of slaked lime.The experiments demonstrated that the operating time with 100%desulfurization efficiency and the“break-through”time for the desulfurizer prepared via the steam jet mill is longer than that of traditional desulfurizers,and has significant advantages,especially at low flue gas relative humidity.Compared with traditional desulfurizers,the desulfurizer prepared via steam jet mill expands the range of acceptable flue gas temperature,and the failure temperature is 1.625 times that of traditional desulfurizers.This work breaks through the technical bottleneck of low dry desulfurization efficiency,which is an important step in pushing forward the application of dry desulfurization.

关键词： Dry desulfurization Relative humidity Desulfurization efficiency High-efficiency desulfurizer Quicklime digestion

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A risk assessment method considering risk attributes and work safety informational needs and its application

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Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering 2024年第4期68卷 253-262页

作者： Cong Luo Yunsheng Zhao Ke Xu school of Political Science and public Administration Shandong UniversityQingdao 266200China Faculty of Engineering China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Department of emergency management of Hubei Province Wuhan 430064China

The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.

关键词： Risk assessment Safey “51X”evaluation indicator system Four-tier risk assessment model Risk attributes Process system

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Multimorbidity and mortality among older patients with coronary heart disease in Shenzhen,China

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2024年第1期21卷 81-89页

作者： Fu-Rong LI Shuang WANG Xia LI Zhi-Yuan CHENG Cheng JIN Chun-Bao MO Jing ZHENG Feng-Chao LIANG Dong-Feng GU Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Health and Precision Medicine Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhenGuangdongChina school of public Health and emergency management Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhenGuangdongChina Shenzhen Health Development Research and Data management Center ShenzhenChina school of Medicine Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhenGuangdongChina

BACKGROUND The current understanding of the magnitude and consequences of multimorbidity in Chinese older adults with coronary heart disease(CHD)is insufficient.We aimed to assess the association and population-attributable fractions(PAFs)between multimorbidity and mortality among hospitalized older patients who were diagnosed with CHD in Shenzhen,China.METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of older Chinese patients(aged≥65 years)who were diagnosed with CHD.Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations between multimorbidity and all-cause and cardiovascular disease(CVD)mortality.We also calculated the PAFs.RESULTS The study comprised 76,455 older hospitalized patients who were diagnosed with CHD between January 1,2016,and August 31,2022.Among them,70,217(91.9%)had multimorbidity,defined as the presence of at least one of the predefined 14 chronic conditions.Those with cancer,hemorrhagic stroke and chronic liver disease had the worst overall death risk,with adjusted HRs(95%CIs)of 4.05(3.77,4.38),2.22(1.94,2.53),and 1.85(1.63,2.11),respectively.For CVD mortality,the highest risk was observed for hemorrhagic stroke,ischemic stroke,and chronic kidney disease;the corresponding adjusted HRs(95%CIs)were 3.24(2.77,3.79),1.91(1.79,2.04),and 1.81(1.64,1.99),respectively.All-cause mortality was mostly attributable to cancer,heart failure and ischemic stroke,with PAFs of 11.8,10.2,and 9.1,respectively.As for CVD mortality,the leading PAFs were heart failure,ischemic stroke and diabetes;the corresponding PAFs were 18.0,15.7,and 6.1,respectively.CONCLUSIONS Multimorbidity was common and had a significant impact on mortality among older patients with CHD in Shenzhen,China.Cancer,heart failure,ischemic stroke and diabetes are the primary contributors to PAFs.Therefore,prioritizing improved treatment and management of these comorbidities is essential for the survival prognosis of CHD patients from a holistic public health perspective.

关键词： patients morbidity mortality

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Dynamics of information diffusion and disease transmission in time-varying multiplex networks with asymmetric activity levels

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Chinese Physics B 2024年第3期33卷 690-699页

作者：谢笑笑霍良安董雅芳程英英 Business school University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093China school of Intelligent emergency management University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093China school of management Henan University of Science and TechnologyLuoyang 471023China

While the interaction between information and disease in static networks has been extensively investigated,many studies have ignored the characteristics of network evolution.In this study,we construct a new two-layer coupling model to explore the interactions between information and disease.The upper layer describes the diffusion of disease-related information,and the lower layer represents the disease transmission.We then use power-law distributions to examine the influence of asymmetric activity levels on dynamic propagation,revealing a mapping relationship characterizing the interconnected propagation of information and diseases among partial nodes within the network.Subsequently,we derive the disease outbreak threshold by using the microscopic Markov-chain approach(MMCA).Finally,we perform extensive Monte Carlo(MC)numerical simulations to verify the accuracy of our theoretical results.Our findings indicate that the activity levels of individuals in the disease transmission layer have a more significant influence on disease transmission compared with the individual activity levels in the information diffusion layer.Moreover,reducing the damping factor can delay disease outbreaks and suppress disease transmission,while improving individual quarantine measures can contribute positively to disease control.This study provides valuable insights into policymakers for developing outbreak prevention and control strategies.

关键词： information diffusion disease transmission asymmetric activity levels quarantine strength

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Studying the co-evolution of information diffusion,vaccination behavior and disease transmission in multilayer networks with local and global effects

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Chinese Physics B 2024年第3期33卷 677-689页

作者：霍良安武兵杰 Business school University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093China school of Intelligent emergency management University of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghai 200093China

Today,with the rapid development of the internet,a large amount of information often accompanies the rapid transmission of disease outbreaks,and increasing numbers of scholars are studying the relationship between information and the disease transmission process using complex networks.In fact,the disease transmission process is very complex.Besides this information,there will often be individual behavioral measures and other factors to consider.Most of the previous research has aimed to establish a two-layer network model to consider the impact of information on the transmission process of disease,rarely divided into information and behavior,respectively.To carry out a more in-depth analysis of the disease transmission process and the intrinsic influencing mechanism,this paper divides information and behavior into two layers and proposes the establishment of a complex network to study the dynamic co-evolution of information diffusion,vaccination behavior,and disease transmission.This is achieved by considering four influential relationships between adjacent layers in multilayer networks.In the information layer,the diffusion process of negative information is described,and the feedback effects of local and global vaccination are considered.In the behavioral layer,an individual's vaccination behavior is described,and the probability of an individual receiving a vaccination is influenced by two factors:the influence of negative information,and the influence of local and global disease severity.In the disease layer,individual susceptibility is considered to be influenced by vaccination behavior.The state transition equations are derived using the micro Markov chain approach(MMCA),and disease prevalence thresholds are obtained.It is demonstrated through simulation experiments that the negative information diffusion is less influenced by local vaccination behavior,and is mainly influenced by global vaccination behavior;vaccination behavior is mainly influenced by local disease conditions,and is less influenced by glob

关键词： information diffusion vaccination behavior disease transmission multilayer networks local and global effect

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Disaster Awareness and Preparedness Among Older Adults in Canada Regarding Floods, Wildfires, and Earthquakes

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第2期15卷 198-212页

作者： Evalyna Bogdan Rachel Krueger Julie Wright Kyle Woods Shaieree Cottar school of Administrative Studies Disaster and Emergency Management Program York University Partners for Action Faculty of Environment University of Waterloo Department of Geography and Environmental management University of Waterloo

Older adults are significantly impacted by natural hazards and disasters that are exacerbated by climate change. Understanding their awareness and preparedness is essential for enhancing disaster resilience. This study investigated the attitudes, actions, and recommendations of older adults regarding natural hazards that pose risks in their geographic area—specifically floods, wildfires, and/or earthquakes in Canada. Methods for this study included survey and focus groups with older adults(n = 161 and n = 10, respectively) and other high-risk groups from across Canada, that are vulnerable to these natural hazards. The main findings from this study are that current awareness and preparedness among older adults is low, though stronger perceptions of risks are associated with risks specific to geographic locations where respondents live. Several barriers, such as hazard vulnerability misperceptions, cost-related reasons, and lack of hazard awareness have resulted in low awareness and preparedness among these populations. The two main recommendations arising from this research are:(1) improve awareness and preparedness with tailor-made emergency preparedness materials for older adults; and(2) adopt community-based approaches to disaster preparedness through existing community groups to strengthen social connections with a focus on locally specific hazards. The findings from this research can be applied to other hazards, including heatwaves and pandemics.

关键词： Canada Community-based disaster risk management Disaster awareness and preparedness Disaster resilience Natural hazards Older adults

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TransTM:A device-free method based on time-streaming multiscale transformer for human activity recognition

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Defence Technology（防务技术） 2024年第2期32卷 619-628页

作者： Yi Liu Weiqing Huang Shang Jiang Bobai Zhao Shuai Wang Siye Wang Yanfang Zhang Institute of Information Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Cyber SecurityUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina school of Information management Beijing Information Science and Technology UniversityBeijingChina

RFID-based human activity recognition(HAR)attracts attention due to its convenience,noninvasiveness,and privacy protection.Existing RFID-based HAR methods use modeling,CNN,or LSTM to extract features effectively.Still,they have shortcomings:1)requiring complex hand-crafted data cleaning processes and 2)only addressing single-person activity recognition based on specific RF signals.To solve these problems,this paper proposes a novel device-free method based on Time-streaming Multiscale Transformer called TransTM.This model leverages the Transformer's powerful data fitting capabilities to take raw RFID RSSI data as input without pre-processing.Concretely,we propose a multiscale convolutional hybrid Transformer to capture behavioral features that recognizes singlehuman activities and human-to-human interactions.Compared with existing CNN-and LSTM-based methods,the Transformer-based method has more data fitting power,generalization,and scalability.Furthermore,using RF signals,our method achieves an excellent classification effect on human behaviorbased classification tasks.Experimental results on the actual RFID datasets show that this model achieves a high average recognition accuracy(99.1%).The dataset we collected for detecting RFID-based indoor human activities will be published.

关键词： Human activity recognition RFID Transformer

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