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Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy

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China & World Economy 2024年第3期32卷 1-30页

作者： Wenni Lei Dongzhou Mei Mi Zhang school of economics Minzu University of ChinaChina school of International trade and economics Central University of Finance and EconomicsChina

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the *** study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies,taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy *** analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial *** in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and *** study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies,while the transmission path did not *** results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle,although it does not drive the global financial cycle.

关键词： China's monetary policy commodity prices external instruments global trade spillovers

Building the ARIMA Model for Forecasting the Production of Vietnam’s Coffee Export

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Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics 2024年第4期12卷 1237-1246页

作者： Duy Quang Phung Quoc Thang Trinh Quang Truong Do Ngan Giang Nguyen Van Ha Nguyen Gia Khiem Ngo Thi Minh Ngoc Tran Faculty of Technology and Data Science Foreign Trade University Hanoi Vietnam school of economics and International Business Foreign Trade University Hanoi Vietnam

Coffee is a significant industry, accounting for 3% of Vietnam’s GDP, with annual export turnover consistently exceeding USD 3 billion. Despite global economic challenges affecting purchasing power at various times, Vietnam’s coffee exports in December 2023 continued to surge, reaching the highest level in the past 9 months at 190,000 tons, a 59.3% increase compared to November 2023, but still a slight 3.5% decrease from the same period last year. The export turnover reached USD 538 million, a 51% increase from November 2023 and a 26.4% increase from the same period last year. Therefore, forecasting the coffee export volume holds significant importance for coffee producers nationwide. This research employs the Box-Jenkins method to construct an ARIMA model for forecasting Vietnam’s coffee export volume based on annual data published by the General Statistics Office. Results indicate that among the models considered, the ARIMA(1, 1, 2) model is the most suitable. The study also provides short-term forecasts for Vietnam’s coffee export volume. However, the current model is limited to forecasting and is not yet optimized, as the assumed linearity in the model is a simplification.

关键词： ARIMA Forecasting Coffee Export Volume Data Science

“China Shock”or China Dividend?-China GVC Participation’s Effects on Trading Partners’Technological Progress

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China Economist 2024年第1期19卷 44-57页

作者： Chen Qifei Yang Jijun Ye Di school of International economics and trade Nanjing University of Finance and Economics(NUFE)NanjingChina school of Public Finance and Taxation NUFE

This paper explores the effects of China’s global value chain(GVC)participation on technological progress in trading-partner countries based on estimated data on value-added trade between China and 52 trading *** find that,first,although China’s exports lowered the total factor productivity(TFP)of its trading partners(competitive effect),its imports greatly increased trading partners’TFP(effect of scale).This implies that China’s GVC participation is beneficial to its trading partners’technological progress in the form of a considerable technology dividend ***,China’s export dividend effect compensates for the negative effect of Chinese competition on trading partners’technological progress;the innovation effects attributable to China’s imports reinforce the positive effects of scale on technological *** innovation is factored in,the China dividend thus becomes further ***,China’s merchandise imports have a diminishing positive effect on technological progress in trading partners as geographical distance increases,but trade in services transcends geographical boundaries,and the positive technological progress effect of China’s service imports do not diminish as distance *** find that the“China dividend”from China’s GVC participation is a significant contributor to technological progress in partner nations,and China’s imports are conducive to innovation and technological progress in developed countries in the long run.

关键词： Global value chains China dividend trade in value-added technology spillover collaborative innovation

Uncertainty of the Export VAT Rebate Policy:Measurement and Its Effects

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China Finance and Economic Review 2024年第2期13卷 90-111页

作者： Yanzhe Zhang Helian Xu Xiaokai Shao school of economics Hainan University school of economics and trade Hunan University International Business school Beijing Foreign Studies University

Based on the export VAT rebate rate data from 2004 to 2015,this paper measures the uncertainty of Chinese export VAT rebate policy by using unexpected fluctuation of export VAT rebate rate,and finds that the index varies across products,years and ***,the paper studies the influence of the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy on China’s export growth from both theoretical and empirical *** research results show that this uncertainty reduces the expected profit of export enterprises and their optimal output,and significantly reduces the growth rate of the ordinary export that applies the export VAT rebate method,but it has no impact on the processing *** decomposing total value of exports,it is found that the growth in the number of ordinary export relationship and average sales decrease with the increase of uncertainty,while the average price growth rate increases slightly,and these effects are only refl ected in the newly entered export *** findings suggest that when the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy is high,enterprises are more cautious about entering the ordinary export market and more likely to adopt a lowquantity-high-price strategy.

关键词： export VAT rebate policy uncertainty export growth ordinary export

Industrial Policy,Product Switching,and Export Performance

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China & World Economy 2024年第1期32卷 167-196页

作者： Jiemiao Dong Zhuangxiong Yu Xunpeng Shi Yang Yang school of economics and trade Guangdong University of Foreign StudiesChina Institute of Industrial economics Jinan UniversityChina Australia-China Relations Institute University of Technology SydneyAustrialia International school of Business&Finance Sun Yat-sen UniversityChina

Industrial policy can promote economic growth and industrial upgrading by encouraging enterprises to adopt product *** utilizing comprehensive industrial policies and customs trade databases from 2000 to 2015,this paper found that firms with product ranges within policy-supported areas were more active in product *** all the enterprises that adopted the product switching,those with nonmain products in policy-supported areas were more inclined to adjust their main *** tended to transform nonmain product to main product as opposed to introducing new main product in order to effectively leverage their export experience and established ***,for enterprises whose main product was within the policy-supported areas,their tendency to switch products significantly *** analysis suggested that policy support,by alleviating industry distress and mitigating excessive market competition,encouraged firms to switch products to areas with policy ***,we estimated trade performance after product switching from the perspective of product unit price and export product *** found that for firms whose main product was in policy-supported areas,such switching was more likely to result in“low price,high quality”exports,whereas for firms with nonmain products in supported areas,such switching was more likely to lead to“high price,low quality”exports,which indicates that firms switching to policy-supported areas need to continuously develop their core competencies and operate effectively to improve their production performance.

关键词： export performance high-quality development industrial policy product switching

Endomorphism Algebras of Support τ-Tilting Modules

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Algebra Colloquium 2024年第2期31卷 333-340页

作者： Yonggang Hu Panyue Zhou Nanqing Ding Department of International economics China Foreign Affairs University Beijing 100037China school of Mathematics and Statistics Changsha University of Science and Technology Changsha 410114China 不详

Let A be a finite dimensional k-algebra and T be a supportτ-tilting right *** this note,we give lower and upper bounds for the global dimension of the endomorphism algebra End_(A)(T)under some mild ***,we give some e... 详细信息

关键词： supportτ-tilting module τ-tilting module tilting module global dimension

FinTech Can Prevent the Formation of Zombie Firms:Evidence from China

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Social Sciences in China 2024年第1期45卷 111-133页

作者： Jiang Jiatong Yang Lu Yin Zhentao school of International trade and economics University of International Business and Economics school of Public Policy&Management Tsinghua University Institute of Finance and Banking Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The interplay between financial technology(FinTech)and real economy firms has garnered considerable *** paper explores the relationship and mechanism between FinTech and corporate zombification using the data of Chinese A-share listed firms in China from 2011 to *** research findings reveal that FinTech significantly inhibits firm zombification,and FinTech breadth and depth both play a significant role in restraining firm *** exploration indicates that,on the one hand,FinTech reduces friction in the financial market,inhibiting firm zombification by improving firm investment efficiency,especially alleviating *** the other side,FinTech indirectly affects the technological investment,production,and operation of firms,thereby inhibiting firm zombification by increasing their total factor *** analysis suggests that the inhibitory effect of FinTech on corporate zombification is more pronounced for non-stateowned firms and small-sized firms,as well as those in manufacturing industries and highly competitive *** paper provides some novel evidence on evaluating the effect of FinTech on firms and also offers new insights for efficient governance of zombie firms.

关键词： FinTech zombie firms investment efficiency total factor productivity

Spatial Structure of Peer Networks and Academic Achievement Based on a Random Control Trial Experiment

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China & World Economy 2024年第3期32卷 67-97页

作者： Shilan Feng Ya Tan Zhi Wang Qinghua Zhang school of Marxism Peking UniversityChina school of International trade and economics University of International Business and EconomicsChina China Center for Economic Studies Fudan Universityand Shanghai Institute of International Finance and EconomicsChina Guanghua school of Management Peking UniversityChina

This paper investigates whether changing the seating arrangement in a classroom can facilitate positive spillovers from top-performing students to others,using a field experiment conducted in a Chinese high *** study groups with balanced abilities,the treatment altered the spatial distribution by assigning the two top students to seats in the spatial center of each *** the reference groups where students were allowed to choose their own seating arrangements,the lowest performing were significantly less likely to sit next to a top student than they would be under a random *** results suggest that,in the treated groups,there could be enhanced academic spillovers from the top *** treatment especially benefited the two lowest performing students in science *** contrast,the treatment exerted negative effects on the test scores of the two middle-performing students,due to a disruption *** results suggest that the spatial layout of a peer network can have a significant impact on learning outcomes.

关键词： field experiment peer effects social interactions spatial structure test scores

Whose Aid is Beneficial to Firms'Exports?Evidence from a Post-disaster Aid Experiment in China

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China & World Economy 2024年第2期32卷 73-96页

作者： Tan Li Qing Liu Lihe Xu school of International Business Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina school of economics Renmin University of ChinaChina Institute of Studies for the Greater Bay Area Guangdong University of Foreign StudiesChina

Post-disaster aid is widely regarded as important in helping local recovery and *** paper examines the effectiveness of post-disaster aid on exports,which are a driving factor of economic *** reports a natural experiment in China–the case of post-disaster aid following the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008–to examine how donors'experiences affected the exports of manufacturing firms in disaster-stricken *** export experience of the donor was *** coming from donors with more export experience was more beneficial to the exports of firms in recipient counties than aid from less experienced donors.“Learning from the donor”is a potential channel through which this effect *** is,firms in recipient counties learned from donors'export experience by exporting more products similar to those of donors,exporting more to the destination countries of donors,and participating in the donors'supply-chain networks by exporting more of the donors'***“learning from the donor”effects show that knowledge spillover can occur between spatially distant parties,which complements the literature.

关键词： China export knowledge spillover post-disaster aid