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Impact of Sophisticated Stationary Forecast Techniques on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain

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Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science) 2007年第5期12卷 665-672页

作者：汪传旭 school of economy and management Shanghai Maritime Univ.

The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply *** a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast),and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast.

关键词： supply chain management bullwhip effect forecasting third order moving average third order exponential smoothing

Study on the partner selecting method of strategic alliance inhigh and new technology enterprises

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Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series) 2004年第6期11卷 605-609页

作者：王宏起唐宇迟运领 school of economy and management Harbin Engineering University Harbin 150001 China school of economy and management Harbin University of Science and Technology Harbin 150001 China

A successful and effective strategic alliance involves many factors, of which selecting a proper partner is the most important factor to achieve the success of the alliance. In view of the characteristics of strategic alliance in high and new technology enterprises and according to the analysis on the standards of partner selecting and the factors of the success of alliance, this paper does some deeper research on the partner selecting and the alliance evaluation process from the perspective of different strategic levels by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluating method, thus providing a method to select the alliance partner for high and new technology enterprises in China.

关键词： high and new technology enterprise strategic alliance partner selecting fuzzy comprehensive evaluating

A Comparative Study on the Labor Productivity of Provincial Textile Industry Based on DEA in China

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Journal of Donghua University(English Edition) 2008年第5期25卷 597-600页

作者：陶洪戴昌钧应科 Glorious Sun school of Business and management Donghua University school economy and management of Shaoxing University school of management Shanghai University

Making use of the DEA-based method of quadruplicate decomposition of labor productivity, the paper analyzes the influence of labor productivity of provincial textile industry in China, caused by the effect of technical efficiency, pure technical progress, changes of scale efficiency of capital per labor and of capital intensity from the year of 2002 to 2005. Its results show that the improvement of provincial textile industry labor productivity has mainly resulted from technical progress since 2003. Meanwhile, labor productivity of underdeveloped provinces has been growing faster than that of developed ones owing to technology diffusion. And then, the above-mentioned improvement has originated from the enhancement of capital deepening and technology efficiency. In addition, scale return of capital per labor appeared to decrease during the period from 2004 to 2005.

关键词： textile industry labor productivity scale efficiency technical progress DEA

A New Approach for Controlling Chaos Based on Direct Optimizing Predictive Control

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Communications in Theoretical Physics 2006年第3期45卷 473-476页

作者： LI Dong-Mei YANG Shao-Zhen school of economy and management Hebei University of Science and Technology Shijiazhuang 050018 China

We introduce the predictive control theory into predictive control algorithm based on a neural network model the study of chaos control and propose a direct optimizing The proposed control system stabilizes the chaotic motion in an unknown chaotic system onto the desired target trajectory. Compared with the existing similar algorithms, the proposed control system has faster response, so it requires much shorter time for the stabilization of the chaotic systems. The proposed approach can control hyperchaos and the algorithm is simple. The convergence of the control algorithm and the stability of the control system can be guaranteed. The theoretic analysis and simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.

关键词： vchaos control predictive control chaotic system neural networks

Forecasting Container Throughput of Qingdao Port with a Hybrid Model

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2015年第1期28卷 105-121页

作者： HUANG Anqiang LAI Kinkeung LI Yinhua WANG Shouyang school of economy and management Beihang University Department of management Sciences City University of Hong Kong Research Center on Fictitious economy and Data Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences

This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting method to forecast container throughput of Qingdao *** eliminate the influence of outliers,local outlier factor(lof) is extended to detect outliers in time series,and then different dummy variables are constructed to capture the effect of outliers based on domain ***,a hybrid forecasting model combining projection pursuit regression(PPR) and genetic programming(GP) algorithm is ***,the hybrid model is applied to forecasting container throughput of Qingdao Port and the results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms ANN,SARIMA,and PPR models.

关键词： Container throughput forecast genetic programming algorithm outlier processing projection pursuit regression.

Research on the Impact of Consumers’ Time Sensitivity on E-commerce Free Shipping Strategy 32

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Research on the Impact of Consumers’ Time Sensitivity on E-...

Simulation Research of the TOC-Based Cost Accounting Impacting on Organizational Performance

第32届中国控制与决策会议

作者： Guo Rui Ma XiaXia Shi TianXing school of economy and management Beijing Jiaotong University

ISBN: (数字)9781728158556

ISBN: (纸本)9781728158563

With the online shopping carnival,e-retailers have to process huge volumes of *** enterprises are also overloaded with goods for *** causes deferred *** on this phenomenon,this paper proposes solving deferred delivery problem from the e-retailers *** paper builds a dynamic game model between e-retailers and consumers based on the Stackelberg game,with the consumer residual function,considering the difference of consumer’s time sensitivity to deferred *** influence of free shipping strategy and corresponding numerical analysis are carried *** management theories and insights are given to provide theoretical support for e-retailers and consumers to make optimal decisions.

关键词： Free Shipping Strategy Time Sensitivity Delivery Delay

来源： cnki会议评论

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Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science) 2005年第2期10卷 197-202页

作者：马国丰屠梅曾史占中 school of economy and management Tongji Univ. Shanghai 200092 China school of management Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. Shanghai 200052

After introducing a new management philosophy called Theory of Constraints (TOC), Dr Eli Goldratt applied it to the field of accounting, and formed a new set of measures for cost accounting. These measures are Throughput Contribution, Inventory and Operating Expenses. This paper applied the constraint-based cost accounting to three kinds of strategies decisions including contraction, cost and market, and uses the Gedunken experiment to do a contrastive research between the cost accounting based on TOC and the full-absorption cost accounting. The experiment proves that the cost accounting based on TOC outperforms the traditional cost accounting, and greatly improves organizational performance.

关键词： theory of constraints throughput contribution strategy decision operating expenses

Circular economy Development Mode Based on System Theory

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2007年第4期5卷 92-96页

作者： Xiao Huamao Wang Fengqi school of economy and management Beijing University of Technology Beijing 100022 China

The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings' sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.

关键词： circular economy development mode system system theory

A Simple Discussion on the Supply and Demand of Water Resources in the Western Region of China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2006年第2期4卷 61-64页

作者： Yu Hongbo school of economy and management Shandong Normal University Jinan 250014 China

We are accustomed to solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region by the thought of increasing the effective supply of water to meet the needs of Go-west Campaign. After introducing the dynamic equilibrium principle on supply and demand in economy, we find that we should solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region through reducing total demand to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand. Finally water resources in the western region can be enlarged by an accumulated way.

关键词： water resources water environment supply demand population migration