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From Price to Gain:The Evolution of Household Income Volatility and Consumption Insurance in Urban China

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China & World Economy 2022年第6期30卷 113-136页

作者： Da Zhao Jingyuan Guo Hong Zou Ze Song school of economics Sichuan UniversityChina Department of economics The London School of Economics and Political ScienceUK school of economics Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina school of economics Nankai UniversityChina

This paper exploits a novel and unique opportunity to reveal the evolution of income volatility and consumption insurance from 1992 to 2014 in urban China.We found that(i)the average household experienced a downward trend in income and consumption volatility.Although the global financial crisis in 2008 caused a slight spike,it did not reverse the downward trend.(i)Households'ability to smooth income shocks improved significantly,and the consumption insurance against permanent(transitory)income shocks increased from 0.6172(0.8307)to 0.7453(0.8742)-that is,the transmission of permanent(transitory)income shocks to consumption decreased by 33.46(25.69)percent from 2004 to 2014.(ii)Welfare analysis indicates that the positive insurance effect counteracted the negative effects of lower economic growth in the 2010-2014period.Income and consumption volatility,and consumption insurance were heterogeneous across income sources,consumption categories,and various demographic characteristics,which have important implications forunderstandingChina's economictransition.

关键词： China's economic transition consumption insurance consumption volatility incomevolatility

Customer Joining Behavior and Regulation Strategy in Visible Multi-Server Queues with Synchronous Vacations of Partial Servers

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第3期37卷 1209-1232页

作者： SUN Wei WANG Hao XIE Xumeng LI Shiyong Yanshan University school of economics and Management

This paper studies customer joining behavior and system regulation strategy in nonexhaustive visible M/M/m queues with synchronous vacations of a part of the servers. Once this part of the servers are idle, they take multiple vacations simultaneously(vacation period). Until there are customers waiting in the queue, they are reactivated and all servers are busy or idle(busy period).The authors call this part of the servers as “partial servers”. In view of the fully visible queue and the almost visible queue, the authors obtain customers’ equilibrium joining threshold strategies and their socially optimal joining threshold strategies, respectively, and observe that customer joining behavior in equilibrium generally makes the system overcrowded, which makes the equilibrium social welfare lower than the optimal social welfare. After regulation, interestingly, for optimizing social welfare, the system manager hopes not only customers arriving in vacation period pay attention to the number of partial servers, but also customers arriving in busy period should care about it rather than ignore.Moreover, arranging more servers for vacation does not necessarily lead to the decrease of social welfare on condition that the number of partial servers is close to m. As for the information advantage of the fully visible case, it is not obvious for increasing social welfare and even unfavorable to servers’ profit unless the number of partial servers is big enough. Furthermore, given the different composition of social welfare, there exists the optimal number of partial servers and the optimal arrival rate of customers for maximizing social welfare.

关键词： Customer behavior non-exhaustive service partial servers regulation strategy synchronous vacations visible queue

From Villages to Urban Neighborhoods:Urbanization and Health

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China & World Economy 2023年第2期31卷 137-158页

作者： Yu Shen Wenkai Sun school of economics Nanjing University of Finance and EconomicsChina school of economics Renmin University of ChinaChina

With rapid urbanization,millions of rural villagers have become urban citizens in China.This paper estimates the effect of the in situ urbanization policy on an individual's health by employing the difference-in-differences framework and using panel survey data from the China Family Panel Studies.Our findings show that this program,unlike other kinds of urbanization,which have had negative impacts on mental health or made people smoke or drink more,increased people's self-reported health status significantly.Further mechanism analysis reveals that the in situ urbanization policy afected health by increasing people's confidence in the future,their satisfaction with their current lives,and their medical insurance enrollment.This study highlights the importance of"the city comes to villagers"urbanization in China,and it can play an essential role in advancing the urbanization rate and avoiding the negative impacts of urbanization on health.

关键词： China's urbanization conversion of villages to urban neighborhoods health consequences in situ urbanization policy

Distance Puzzle:An Explanation from Global Value Chain Perspective

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China Finance and Economic Review 2022年第3期11卷 66-89页

作者： Yuwan Duan Binhan Hong Binkai Chen school of International Trade and economics Central University of Finance and Economics school of economics and Management Tsinghua University school of economics Central University of Finance and Economics

Theoretically,along with the technology progress and infrastructure improvement,geographical distance should have a diminishing effect on international trade over time.However,the empirical studies failed to deliver consistent empirical support for it.This result is known as“distance puzzle”.In this paper,we propose that the intermediate goods across borders caused by global value chain(GVC)could be an important explanation for the“distance puzzle”.We firstly build a Ricardian model with two stages of production,by which the trade elasticity under the framework of traditional trade and GVC trade are derived and compared,to theoretically explain why the GVC will result in the“distance puzzle”.Then we empirically investigate the effect of distance and cross-border times on bilateral gross trade and value-added trade over time.After controlling the influence of the GVC,we observe a diminishing elasticity of distance over time,and prove that the GVC can explain the“distance puzzle”.The further heterogeneous analysis and robustness tests confirm our empirical results.

关键词： global value chain(GVC) distance puzzle cross-border times value-added trade gravity model

A Multi-Scale Method for PM2.5 Forecasting with Multi-Source Big Data

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2023年第2期36卷 771-797页

作者： YUAN Wenyan DU Hongchuan LI Jieyi LI Ling school of Science Beijing University of Chemical TechnologyBeijing 100029China school of economics and Management Beijing University of Chemical Technology International school of economics and Management Capital University of Economics and Business

In the age of big data,the Internet big data can finely reflect public attention to air pollution,which greatly impact ambient PM2.5 concentrations;however,it has not been applied to PM2.5 prediction yet.Therefore,this study introduces such informative Internet big data as an effective predictor for PM2.5,in addition to other big data.To capture the multi-scale relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and multi-source big data,a novel multi-source big data and multi-scale forecasting methodology is proposed for PM2.5.Three major steps are taken:1)Multi-source big data process,to collect big data from different sources(e.g.,devices and Internet)and extract the hidden predictive features;2)Multi-scale analysis,to address the non-uniformity and nonalignment of timescales by withdrawing the scale-aligned modes hidden in multi-source data;3)PM2.5 prediction,entailing individual prediction at each timescale and ensemble prediction for the final results.The empirical study focuses on the top highly-polluted cities and shows that the proposed multi-source big data and multi-scale forecasting method outperforms its original forms(with neither big data nor multi-scale analysis),semi-extended variants(with big data and without multi-scale analysis)and similar counterparts(with big data but from a single source and multi-scale analysis)in accuracy.

关键词： Air quality prediction internet multi-scale analysis multi-source big data multivariate empirical mode decomposition

Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?

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China & World Economy 2024年第3期32卷 98-129页

作者： Jia Wang Huan Liu Mei Li Han Li school of economics Xiamen UniversityChina school of economics and Management Nanjing Agricultural UniversityChina school of economics and Management Wuhan UniversityChina

To analyze the efect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China's urban employee basic pension insurance fund(CUEBPIF),this study develops an actuarial model for pension insurance.The results reveal the following:(i)Without policy intervention,the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall of RMB207.44 trillion by 2050,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050.(i)Based on a delayed retirement policy,the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years,and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by I1.77 percentage points.(ii)The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.

关键词： burden of enterprise social security contributions delayed retirement policy state-owned capital transfer policy sustainability of basic pension insurance fund

Responsible Behavior of Irresponsible Companies:Air Pollution and Charitable Donations of Polluting Companies

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China & World Economy 2023年第4期31卷 90-119页

作者： Weibing Li Siyuan Chen Kaixia Zhang school of economics Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyChina school of economics Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina

The relationship between air pollution and charitable donations of companies has received little attention from academia.To make up for this defect,we use a regression discontinuity design based on the spatial discontinuity in air pollution created by China's winter heating policy in the north of Qinling Mountains–Huai River line to examine whether severe air pollution may cause polluting companies to make charitable donations.Our results consistently show that air pollution has a positive impact on the donations of polluting companies,regardless of whether the absolute donations,the relative donations,or the willingness to donate are used to measure donations.A series of robustness tests confirm that this relationship is causal.Furthermore,we find that under severe air pollution,the motivations of polluting companies to implement donation behaviors are to decrease the probability of environmental penalties,reduce environmental pollution costs,and decrease the extent to which air pollution affects company reputations.

关键词： air pollution charitable donations regression discontinuity winter heating policy

Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy

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China & World Economy 2024年第3期32卷 1-30页

作者： Wenni Lei Dongzhou Mei Mi Zhang school of economics Minzu University of ChinaChina school of International Trade and economics Central University of Finance and EconomicsChina

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies,taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks.The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables.Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output.This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies,while the transmission path did not change.The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle,although it does not drive the global financial cycle.

关键词： China's monetary policy commodity prices external instruments global trade spillovers

Can Digital Transformation Definitely Improve Firms'Markups?

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China Finance and Economic Review 2024年第1期13卷 23-42页

作者： Xiang Dai Haowei Ma Erzhen Zhang school of economics Nanjing Audit University school of economics Nanjing University

In this paper,digital transformation is included in the heterogeneity model of firms.Based on a general equilibrium analysis,we find that under the effect of diminishing marginal productivity,digital transformation does not always have a positive impact on firms'markups,but has an"inverted U-shaped"nonlinear influence,which first promotes and then inhibits markups.Firm innovation and firm productivity are the key micro-mechanisms for the above effects to play a role.Based on the analysis of typical facts and empirical data of listed companies,the measurement test yields the following results.First,digital transformation can significantly improve firms'markups when it is below a specific threshold value,but it will have a negative impact when it exceeds this value.That is,there is an"inverted U-shaped"nonlinear relationship between digital transformation and firms'markups.Second,the heterogeneity analysis shows that digital transformation has a greater effect on the markups of state-owned firms,export firms and technology-intensive firms than on the markups of other firms.Third,digital transformation has an impact on firms'markups through two key mechanisms:firm innovation ability and production eficiency.The quantitative empirical results confirm the correctness of the theoretical expectations.Therefore,firms need to grasp the strategic opportunities brought by the progress of digital technology and accelerate the process of promoting the digital transformation.Firms should make proper choices in the selection and arrangement of key areas,as well as avoid possible problems such as"too much".In this way,we can better consolidate the micro foundation of China's high-quality economic development.

关键词： digital transformation firm markup rate inverted U-shaped