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Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 843-855页

作者： Yiran ZHANG Degang ZHOU Xiaofeng GUO center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorabl

关键词： The source region of the Yellow River Climate response Runoff variation Evaporation Precipitation

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of atmospheric physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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The source of Double ITCZ induced by the SST bias over the tropical western Pacific as reflected in CAS-ESM2 Model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1604-1615页

作者： Jinning TONG Fei ZHENG Jiangbo JIN Ruowen YANG Jiang ZHU Qingcun ZENG Department of atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China International center for Climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

“Double ITCZ”is a common precipitation bias over the tropical Pacific in current climate models and Earth system models,but the reasons for its formation are still worth exploring and *** this study,we adopted the second version of Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2),by comparing a set of sea surface temperature(SST)bias correction experiments over the tropical Pacific,to explore the possible mechanism of SST bias on inducing the“Double ITCZ”from the perspective of the climatic annual mean bias in the coupled *** revealed that the simulated climatic annual mean SST bias over the tropical Pacific can affect the bias of latent heat flux through the saturation specific humidity,and the bias of latent heat flux can further affect that of vertical velocity of humid air by the condensation release mechanism,and finally modulate the simulated bias in ***,through the inter-comparison between different experiments,it is found that the source of Double ITCZ might mainly come from the annual mean SST bias over the tropical western Pacific through the proposed air-sea coupled process of“SST-saturated specific humidity-latent heat flux-vertical velocity-precipitation”,indicating a possible way on reducing the couple biases in models over the tropical Pacific to improve the accuracy of CAS-ESM2 for climate simulation.

关键词： SST bias Double ITCZ Nudging SST CAS-ESM2

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Development and evaluation of an online monitoring single-particle optical particle counter with polarization detection

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 585-596页

作者： Weijie Yao Xiaole Pan Yu Tian Hang Liu Yuting Zhang Shandong Lei Junbo Zhang Yinzhou Zhang LinWu Yele Sun Zifa Wang State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China center for Excellence in Regional atmospheric Environment Institute of Urban EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXiamen 361021China

We developed a single-particle optical particle counter with polarization detection(SOPC)for the real-time measurement of the optical size and depolarization ratio(defined as the ratio of the vertical component to the parallel component of backward scattering)of atmospheric particles,the polarization ratio(DR)value can reflect the irregularity of the *** SOPC can detect aerosol particles with size larger than 500 nm and the maximum particle count rate reaches~1.8×10^(5)particles per *** SOPC uses a modulated polarization laser to measure the optical size of particles according to forward scattering signal and the DR value of the particles by backward S and P signal *** sampling rate of the SOPC was 106#/(sec·channel),and all the raw data were processed *** calibration curve was obtained by polystyrene latex spheres with sizes of 0.5-10μm,and the average relative deviation of measurement was 3.96% for sub 3μm particles.T-matrix method calculations showed that the DR value of backscatter light at 120°could describe the variations in the aspect ratio of particles in the above size *** performed insitu observations for the evaluation of the SOPC,the mass concentration constructed by the SOPC showed good agreement with the PM_(2.5)measurements in a nearby state-controlled monitoring *** instrument could provide useful data for source appointment and regulations against air pollution.

关键词： Instrument development Single particle detection Measurement uncertainty Optical simulation Mass concentration

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Development of an automatic measurement system using atmospheric pressure photoionization ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry and application for on-line analysis of particulate matter

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 516-530页

作者： Yayuan Dong Ranran Liu Ling Xie Xiaole Pan Yele Sun Lin Wu ZifaWang State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China center for Excellence in Regional atmospheric Environment Chinese Academy of SciencesInstitute of Urban EnvironmentXiamen 361021China

On-line chemical characterization of atmospheric particulate matter(PM)with soft ionization technique and ultrahigh-resolution Mass Spectrometry(UHRMS)provides molecular information of organic constituents in real *** we describe the development and application of an automatic measurement system that incorporates PM_(2.5)sampling,thermal desorption,atmospheric pressure photoionization,and UHRMS *** formulas of detected organic compounds were deducted from the accurate(±10 ppm)molecular weights obtained at a mass resolution of 100,000,allowing the identification of small organic compounds in PM_(2.5).Detection efficiencies of 28 standard compounds were determined and we found a high sensitivity and selectivity towards organic amines with limits of detection below 10 *** a proof of principle,PM_(2.5)samples collected off-line in winter in the urban area of Beijing were analyzed using the Ionization Module and HRMS of the *** automatic system was then applied to conduct on-line measurements during the summer time at a time resolution of 2 *** detected organic compounds comprised mainly CHON and CHN compounds below 350 m/*** seasonal variations in elemental composition were observed with shorter carbon backbones and higher O/C ratios in summer than that in *** result is consistent with stronger photochemical reactions and thus a higher oxidation state of organics in *** variation in signal intensity of each formula provides crucial information to reveal its source and formation *** summary,the automatic measurement system serves as an important tool for the on-line characterization and identification of organic species in PM_(2.5).

关键词： PM_(2.5) Chemical composition On-line measurement technique High resolution mass spectrometry

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Contrast in Secondary Organic Aerosols between the Present Day and the Preindustrial Period:The Importance of Nontraditional Sources and the Changed atmospheric Oxidation Capability

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1936-1952+2092-2100页

作者： Yingchuan YANG Wenyi YANG Xueshun CHEN Jiawen ZHU Huansheng CHEN Yuanlin WANG Wending WANG Lianfang WEI Ying WEI Qian YE Huiyun DU Zichen WU Zhe WANG Jie LI Xiaodong ZENG Zifa WANG State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning International center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorology Administration Unit 93213 of PLA

Quantifying differences in secondary organic aerosols(SOAs) between the preindustrial period and the present day is crucial to assess climate forcing and environmental effects resulting from anthropogenic activities. The lack of vegetation information for the preindustrial period and the uncertainties in describing SOA formation are two leading factors preventing simulation of SOA. This study calculated the online emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in the Aerosol and atmospheric Chemistry Model of the Institute of atmospheric physics(IAP-AACM) by coupling the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature(MEGAN), where the input vegetation parameters were simulated by the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model(IAP-DGVM). The volatility basis set(VBS) approach was adopted to simulate SOA formation from the nontraditional pathways, i.e., the oxidation of intermediate VOCs and aging of primary organic aerosol. Although biogenic SOAs(BSOAs) were dominant in SOAs globally in the preindustrial period, the contribution of nontraditional anthropogenic SOAs(ASOAs) to the total SOAs was up to 35.7%. In the present day, the contribution of ASOAs was 2.8 times larger than that in the preindustrial period. The contribution of nontraditional sources of SOAs to SOA was as high as 53.1%. The influence of increased anthropogenic emissions in the present day on BSOA concentrations was greater than that of increased biogenic emission changes. The response of BSOA concentrations to anthropogenic emission changes in the present day was more sensitive than that in the preindustrial period. The nontraditional sources and the atmospheric oxidation capability greatly affect the global SOA change.

关键词： anthropogenic and biogenic emissions IAP-AACM MEGAN secondary organic aerosol VBS

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Severe Global Environmental Issues Caused by Canada’s Record-Breaking Wildfires in 2023

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 565-571页

作者： Zhe WANG Zifa WANG Zhiyin ZOU Xueshun CHEN Huangjian WU Wending WANG Hang SU Fang LI Wenru XU Zhihua LIU Jiaojun ZHU State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China International center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of SciencesShenyang 110016China

Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023,unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the *** wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO_(2)and 0.14 Pg CO_(2)equivalent of other greenhouse gases(GHG)including CH4 and N_(2)O as of 31 *** wildfire-related GHG emissions constituted more than doubled Canada’s planned cumulative anthropogenic emissions reductions in 10 years,which represents a significant challenge to climate mitigation *** model simulations showed that the Canadian wildfires impacted not only the local air quality but also that of most areas in the northern hemisphere due to long-range transport,causing severe PM_(2.5)pollution in the northeastern United States and increasing daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in northwestern China by up to 2μg *** observed maximum daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in New York City reached 148.3μg m-3,which was their worst air quality in more than 50 years,nearly 10 times that of the air quality guideline(i.e.,15μg m-3)issued by the World Health Organization(WHO).Aside from the direct emissions from forest fires,the peat fires beneath the surface might smolder for several months or even longer and release substantial amounts of CO_(2).The substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from forest and peat fires might contribute to the positive feedback to the climate,potentially accelerating global *** better understand the comprehensive environmental effects of wildfires and their interactions with the climate system,more detailed research based on advanced observations and Earth System Models is essential.

关键词： Canada forest fire greenhouse gases PM_(2.5) transboundary air pollution

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Oxidized organic molecules in the tropical free troposphere over Amazonia

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 174-184页

作者： Qiaozhi Zha Diego Aliaga Radovan Krejci Victoria A.Sinclair Cheng Wu Giancarlo Ciarelli Wiebke Scholz Liine Heikkinen Eva Partoll Yvette Gramlich Wei Huang Markus Leiminger Joonas Enroth Otso Per?kyl? Runlong Cai Xuemeng Chen Alkuin Maximilian Koenig Fernando Velarde Isabel Moreno Tuukka Pet?j? Paulo Artaxo Paolo Laj Armin Hansel Samara Carbone Markku Kulmala Marcos Andrade Douglas Worsnop Claudia Mohr Federico Bianchi Institute for atmospheric and Earth System research/physics University of Helsinki Joint International research Laboratory of atmospheric and Earth System Sciences Nanjing University Department of Environmental Science & Bolin Centre for Climate research Stockholm University Department of Chemistry and Molecular Biology University of Gothenburg Institute for Ion and Applied physics University of Innsbruck Ionicon Analytik GmbH Laboratory for atmospheric physics Institute for Physics Research Universidad Mayor de San Andrés Institute of physics University of Sao Paulo Institute for Geosciences and Environmental research (IGE) University of Grenoble Alpes Agrarian Sciences Institute Federal University of Uberl?ndia Beijing Advanced Innovation center for Soft Matter Science and Engineering Beijing University of Chemical Technology Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Maryland Aerodyne research Inc. Department of Environmental System Science ETH Zürich Switzerland and Laboratory of atmospheric Chemistry Paul Scherrer Institute

New particle formation(NPF) in the tropical free troposphere(FT) is a globally important source of cloud condensation nuclei, affecting cloud properties and climate. Oxidized organic molecules(OOMs)produced from biogenic volatile organic compounds are believed to contribute to aerosol formation in the tropical FT, but without direct chemical observations. We performed in situ molecular-level OOMs measurements at the Bolivian station Chacaltaya at 5240 m above sea level, on the western edge of Amazonia. For the first time, we demonstrate the presence of OOMs, mainly with 4–5 carbon atoms, in both gas-phase and particle-phase(in terms of mass contribution) measurements in tropical FT air from Amazonia. These observations, combined with air mass history analyses, indicate that the observed OOMs are linked to isoprene emitted from the rainforests hundreds of kilometers away. Based on particle-phase measurements, we find that these compounds can contribute to NPF, at least the growth of newly formed nanoparticles, in the tropical FT on a continental scale. Thus, our study is a fundamental and significant step in understanding the aerosol formation process in the tropical FT.

关键词： oxidized organic molecules tropical aerosol formation Amazon free troposphere

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Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1483-1495,1686-1693页

作者： Vladimir A.SEMENOV Tatiana A.ALDONINA Fei LI Noel Sebastian KEENLYSIDE Lin WANG A.M.Obukhov Institute of atmospheric physics RAS Moscow 119017Russia Institute of Geography RAS Moscow 119017Russia Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate *** of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Arctic climate early 20th century warming climate variability

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The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1496-1510,1661-1667页

作者： Ting LEI Shuanglin LI Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Beijing Meteorological Service center Beijing 100089China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of atmospheric Science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective *** sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

关键词： Ural persistent anomaly Pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation sea ice loss in Barents-Kara Seas

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