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Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 937-958页

作者： Feifei SHEN Aiqing SHU Zhiquan LIU Hong LI Lipeng JIANG Tao ZHANG Dongmei XU Key laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Shanghai Typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China China meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key laboratory/Hubei Key laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205China National Center for Atmospheric research Boulder 80307COUSA State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National meteorological Information Center Beijing 100081China Fujian Key laboratory of Severe Weather and Key laboratory of Straits Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350001China

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection *** show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same *** general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI ***,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical *** typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper *** impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is *** the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

关键词： FY-4A AGRI radiance particle filter multiple typhoons data assimilation numerical weather prediction

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China meteorological Administration Key laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China institute of Water Resources and Hydropower research Beijing 100038China China meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13)C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

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Journal of Forestry research 2024年第3期35卷 205-218页

作者： Li Qin Huaming Shang Weiping Liu Yuting Fan Kexiang Liu Tongwen Zhang Ruibo Zhang Key laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical research(CMA)/Xinjiang Key laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrimqi 830002People's Republicof China Xinjiang meteorological Information Center Urimqi 830002People's Republic of China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the *** elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic ***-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the ***-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing *** conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate *** response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate *** in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of *** in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

关键词： Tree rings Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia Kom.) Stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C) Qilian Mountains:Climate change

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Character of Convective Systems Producing Short-Term Heavy Precipitation in Central China Revealed by Kilometer and Minute Interval Observations

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Journal of meteorological research 2024年第3期38卷 530-541页

作者： Zitong CHEN Yunying LI Zhiwei ZHANG Jing SUN Chengzhi YE Anyuan XIONG College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410073China High Impact Weather Key laboratory of China meteorological Administration Changsha410073China Unit No.92192 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army Ningbo315000China Hubei Key research laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan430223China institute of meteorological Sciences of Hunan Province Hunan Meteorological BureauChangsha410118China National meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Accurate forecasting of heavy precipitation in central China is still a challenge,within which a key issue is our still incomplete understanding of the convective systems(CSs)responsible for such *** this study,through use of an iterative rain-cell tracking algorithm,the macroscale characteristics(scale,intensity,duration,etc.)of the CSs that produced 595 short-term heavy precipitation events in Hunan Province,central China,are quantitatively analyzed,based on radar reflectivity,echo top,and rainfall observations at 1-km and 6-min intervals in April-September of *** results show that CSs present significant seasonal and diurnal *** CSs usually cover a larger echo area with stronger convective cores and thus generate more precipitation than summer CSs,though summer CSs develop more vigorously and *** initiated at 1400-1600 local time are characterized by the strongest convection and a smaller spatiotemporal scale,causing violent and transient showers with typical areal precipitation of 0.5-1 mm km^(−2),but less total *** analyses of the relationships among the scale,intensity,duration,and total precipitation of CSs reveal that the convective intensity is linearly correlated to the spatiotemporal scale of CSs,with the duration increasing on average by 0.0372 h dBZ^(−1);the echo area is significantly correlated to the total precipitation,and the duration and rainfall amount are connected with the area expansion rate(AER)of CSs:when the AER exceeds 50%,CSs expand rapidly with increasing total precipitation,but the duration is *** findings provide a helpful reference for the forecasting of short-term heavy precipitation induced by CSs in central China.

关键词： convective system radar reflectivity factor total precipitation iterative rain-cell tracking

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Uncovering the dominant contribution of intermediate volatility compounds in secondary organic aerosol formation from biomass-burning emissions

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National Science Review 2024年第3期11卷 150-158页

作者： Kun Li Jun Zhang David M.Bell Tiantian Wang Houssni Lamkaddam Tianqu Cui Lu Qi Mihnea Surdu Dongyu Wang Lin Du Imad El Haddad Jay G.Slowik Andre S.H.Prevot Environment research institute Shandong University laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry Paul Scherrer Institute

Organic vapors from biomass burning are a major source of secondary organic aerosols(SOAs). Previous smog chamber studies found that the SOA contributors in biomass-burning emissions are mainly volatile organic compounds(VOCs). While intermediate volatility organic compounds(IVOCs) are efficient SOA precursors and contribute a considerable fraction of biomass-burning emissions, their contribution to SOA formation has not been directly observed. Here, by deploying a newly-developed oxidation flow reactor to study SOA formation from wood burning, we find that IVOCs can contribute ～70% of the formed SOA, i.e.>2 times more than VOCs. This previously missing SOA fraction is interpreted to be due to the high wall losses of semi-volatile oxidation products of IVOCs in smog chambers. The finding in this study reveals that SOA production from biomass burning is much higher than previously thought, and highlights the urgent need for more research on the IVOCs from biomass burning and potentially other emission sources.

关键词： atmospheric chemistry biomass burning secondary organic aerosol intermediate volatility organic compounds

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in Climate Change research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Climate Change research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Influence of sea-land breeze on the formation and dissipation of severe dense fog and its burst reinforcement in the Yellow Sea coastal area,China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 432-449页

作者： Ya GAO Duanyang LIU Shuqi YAN Wenjun ZHOU Hongbin WANG Fan ZU Qin MEI Chuanxiang YI Ye SHENG Key laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China meteorological Administration Nanjing210041China Yancheng meteorological Bureau Yancheng224000China Nanjing Joint institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing210041China Key laboratory of Disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100086China

Based on the global reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric research,the surface meteorological observation data,sounding data and satellite observation data,this paper comprehensively analyzes the evolution process and formation mechanism of a persistent severe dense fog process occurred on February 15–17,2015 in Yancheng,eastern *** the numerical simulation experiment of Weather research and Forecast(WRF)model,we further analyze the impact of sea-land breeze on the formation and burst reinforcement of *** show that the precipitation caused by the southwesterly airflow in front of the upper-level trough and the low-pressure inverted trough are conducive to the formation of early rain fog,while the nighttime clear radiance under the control of surface cold high and the infiltration of weak cold advection are conducive to the formation and development of later radiation-advection *** WRF model simulates the fog evolution process,which is basically consistent with the actual fog area,and the simulation results are credible to a certain *** simulation results show that the establishment of sea breeze has an advection cooling effect on the near surface layer,which is conducive to the formation and development of the inversion layer on the near surface,providing stable stratification conditions for the formation and burst reinforcement of *** one hand,the strengthening of sea breeze circulation can continuously transport water vapor to the study *** the other,the occurrence of ultra-low level jet is favorable for the accumulation of low-level water *** the same time,the inversion intensity further strengthens,which is in favor of the burst reinforcement and long-term maintenance of fog.

关键词： Radiation-advection fog Sea-land breeze Atmospheric boundary layer Fog burst reinforcement WRF model

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Achieving simultaneously high conversion and high selectivity for light olefins directly producing from syngas

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Science China Chemistry 2024年第3期67卷 753-754页

作者： Yuhan Sun Shanxi research institute Huairou Research LaboratoryTaiyuan 030032China institute of Carbon Neutrality ShanghaiTech UniversityShanghai 201210China

The activity and selectivity are two primary indexes of a successful catalyst for chemical reactions. However,achieving a high activity and a high selectivity simultaneously is a long-standing challenge in catalysis, the socalled activity-selectivity trade-off. In the article recently published in Science, a research team led by Prof.

关键词： selectivity simultaneous catalysis

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ResoNet:Robust and Explainable ENSO Forecasts with Hybrid Convolution and Transformer Networks

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1289-1298页

作者： Pumeng LYU Tao TANG Fenghua LING Jing-Jia LUO Niklas BOERS Wanli OUYANG Lei BAI Shanghai Artificial Intelligence laboratory Shanghai 200072China Zhejiang meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310002China institute for Climate and Application research(ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Technical University of Munich Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdam 14473Germany

Recent studies have shown that deep learning(DL)models can skillfully forecast El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events more than 1.5 years in ***,concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,including potential overfitting issues and lack of ***,we propose ResoNet,a DL model that combines CNN(convolutional neural network)and transformer *** hybrid architecture enables our model to adequately capture local sea surface temperature anomalies as well as long-range inter-basin interactions across *** show that ResoNet can robustly predict ENSO at lead times of 19 months,thus outperforming existing approaches in terms of the forecast *** to an explainability method applied to ResoNet predictions of El Niño and La Niña from 1-to 18-month leads,we find that it predicts the Niño-3.4 index based on multiple physically reasonable mechanisms,such as the recharge oscillator concept,seasonal footprint mechanism,and Indian Ocean capacitor ***,we demonstrate for the first time that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña development can be captured by *** results could help to alleviate skepticism about applying DL models for ENSO prediction and encourage more attempts to discover and predict climate phenomena using AI methods.

关键词： deep learning ENSO CNN transformer

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK Huijun WANG Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway Key laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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