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Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 323-340页

作者： K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina regional specialized meteorological center Honolulu HonoluluUSA National Hurricane center Miami FLUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Philippine Atmospheric Geophysicaland Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University USA National Aeronautics and Space Administration MarylandUSA Vietnam meteorological and Hydrological Administration HanoiViet Nam China meteorological Administration BeijingChina regional specialized meteorological center new delhi New DelhiIndia regional specialized meteorological center Tokyo-Typhoon Centre TokyoJapan Department of Physics Imperial College LondonUK Korea meteorological Administration SeoulRepublic of Korea

Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research *** report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both *** IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks *** prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis *** operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.

关键词： Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone genesis Ensemble Prediction Operational Forecasting Probabilistic Verification Survey Global

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Protocolized approach saves the limb in peripheral arterial injury:A decade experience

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025年第1期28卷 62-68页

作者： Pratyusha Priyadarshini Supreet Kaur Komal Gupta Abhinav Kumar Junaid Alam Dinesh Bagaria Narender Choudhary Amit Gupta Sushma Sagar Biplab Mishra Subodh Kumar Division of Trauma Surgery&Critical Care Jai Prakash Narayan Apex Trauma CentreAll India Institute of Medical SciencesNew DelhiIndia

Purpose:Outcomes of peripheral arterial injury(PAI)depend on various factors,such as warm ischemia time and concomitant *** prehospital care may lead to delayed presentation,and a lack of dedicated trauma system may lead to poorer ***,there are few reports of these *** study aims to review our experience of PAI management for more than a decade,and identify the predictors of limb loss in these ***:This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained database of trauma admissions at a level I trauma center from January 2008 to December *** with acute upper limb arterial injuries or lower limb arterial injuries at or above the level of popliteal artery were *** of limb loss with ischemia time,mechanism of injury,and concomitant injuries was studied using multiple logistic *** analysis was performed using STATA version 15.0(Stata Corp LLC,Texas).Results:Out of 716 patients with PAI,the majority(91.9%)were young *** trauma was the most common mechanism of *** ischemia time was 4 h(interquartile range 2-7 h).Brachial artery(28.5%)was the most common injured vessel followed by popliteal artery(17.5%)and femoral artery(17.3%).Limb salvage rate was 78%.Out of them,158(22.1%)patients needed amputation,and 53(7.4%)had undergone primary *** majority(88.6%)of patients who required primary or secondary amputations had blunt *** multivariate analysis,blunt trauma,ischemia time more than 6 h and concomitant venous,skeletal,and soft tissue injuries were associated with higher odds of ***:Over all limb salvage rates was 77.9%in our *** mechanism of injury and associated skeletal and soft tissue injury,ischemia time more than 6 h portend a poor *** prevention,robust prehospital care,and rapid referral to specialized trauma center are few efficient measures,which can decrease the morbidity associated with vascu

关键词： Vascular trauma Extremity vascular injury Amputation Vascular injury repair Peripheral arterial injury

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Thumb Rule for Nowcast of Dust Storm and Strong Squally Winds over delhi NCR using DWR Data

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2020年第1期3卷 29-39页

作者： Kuldeep Srivastava regional Weather Forecasting center(RWFC) India Meteorological DepartmentNew DelhiIndia

Squally winds are the natural hazards and are often associated with the severe thunderstorms(TS),which mostly affects plains of North West India during pre monsoon season(March to May).Squally winds of the order more than 60 kmph are very *** influence of these strong squally winds trees,electricity poles,advertisement sign boards fall,sometimes human life is also *** main objective of this study is to find out the thumb rule based on Doppler Weather Radar(DWR)Data to Nowcast the squally winds over a *** detect thumb rule,five cases of thunder storm accompanied with squally winds ranging from(55 kmph to 110 kmph)are taken in to *** TS’s occurred over delhi NCR(National Capital Region)during May-June *** reflectivity(Max Z)data of delhi DWR,Cloud Top Temperature(CTT)data from INSAT and squally winds along with other weather parameters observed at Safdarjung and Palam observatories are utilized to find out the Thumb *** on the analysis,it is concluded that presence of a western disturbance(WD),presence of East-West trough from North-west Rajasthan upto East UP through south Haryana and very high temperature of the order of 40 degree Celsius over the nearby area are very conducive for occurrence of squally winds accompanied with *** rule find out in this study is that,squally winds of the order of 55 kmph or more will effect a station if a thunderstorm(having Max Z echo with vertical extension of cell>7 km,reflectivity>45 dBz and at a distance of more than 100 km from the station)moving towards station is present in one to two hour before images of Doppler Weather Radar.

关键词： Doppler Weather Radar Squally winds Thunderstorm Dust storm Now-cast

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Decadal trends in precipitable water vapor over the Indus River Basin using ERA5 reanalysis data

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第10期20卷 2928-2945页

作者： Seema RANI Jyotsna SINGH Subhash SINGH Purushottam TIWARI Suraj MAL Department of Geography Institute of ScienceBanaras Hindu UniversityUttar Pradesh 221005India Department of Geography Shaheed Bhagat Singh CollegeUniversity of DelhiNew Delhi 110017India center for the Study of regional Development Jawaharlal Nehru UniversityNew DelhiDelhi 11oo6zIndia

Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)constitutes a pivotal parameter within the domains of atmospheric science,and remote sensing due to its profound influence on Earth’s climate dynamics and weather *** exerts a significant impact on atmospheric stability absorption and emission of radiation,thus engendering alterations in the Earth’s radiative *** such,precise quantification of PWV holds the potential to enhance weather prognostication and fortify preparedness against severe meteorological *** study aimed to elucidate the spatial and temporal changes in seasonal and annual PWV across the Indus River Basin and its sub-basins using ERA5 reanalysis *** present study used ERA5 PWV(entire atmospheric column),air temperature at 2 m(t2m)and 500 hPa(T_500hPa),evapotranspiration,and total cloud cover data from 1960 to *** Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used for trend *** and multiple regression methods were used to understand the association of PWV with other *** findings have unveiled the highest increase in mean PWV during the monsoon(0.40 mm/decade),followed by premonsoon(0.37 mm/decade),post-monsoon(0.27 mm/decade),and winter(0.19 mm/decade)throughout the study ***,the mean PWV exhibited the most pronounced positive trend in the sub-basin Lower Indus(LI),followed by Panjnad(P),Kabul(K),and Upper Indus(UI)across all seasons,except *** PWV has also risen in the Indus basin and its sub-basins over the last six *** exhibits a consistent upward trend up to an elevation of 3500 m within the basin which is most pronounced during the monsoon season,followed by the *** escalating PWV within the basin is reasonably ascribed to increasing air temperatures,augmented evapotranspiration,and heightened cloud *** findings hold potential utility for pertinent authorities engaged in water resource management and planning.

关键词： Himalaya Precipitable Water Vapor Indus River Basin Atmosphere Climate Change ERA5 Reanalysis data

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Significant Improvement in Rainfall Forecast over delhi:Annual and Seasonal Verification

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2022年第3期5卷 10-25页

作者： Kuldeep Srivastava Scientist&Head Regional Weather Forecasting Center(RWFC)India Meteorological DepartmentNew DelhiIndia

regional Weather Forecasting Centre(RWFC)new delhi has the responsibility to issue and disseminate rainfall forecast for *** it is very important to scientifically verify the rainfall forecast issued by *** this study rainfall forecast verification of delhi has been carried out annually and season wise for the period 2011 to *** statistical parameters such as Percentage Correct(PC),Probability of Detection(POD),Missing Ratio(MR),False Alarm Ratio(FAR),Critical Success Index(CSI),True Skill Statistics(TSS)and Heidke Skill Score(HSS)have been calculated for season wise and annually.A forecast is considered to be improved if PC,POD,CSI,TSS and HSS increase and FAR and MR decrease over a period of *** author can conclude that annual accuracy of forecast has increased significantly over the period of time from 2011 to 2021,as PC,POD,CSI,TSS and HSS increase and FAR and MR decrease over a period of *** contribution in the improved forecast has observed in transition season(pre-monsoon season followed by post-monsoon,having rainfall activity mainly in association with thunderstorms),when FAR and MR have decreased drastically.

关键词： Thunderstorms Percentage correct Probability of detection Missing ratio False alarm ratio Critical success index True skill statistics Heidke skill score

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Protocolized approach saves the limb in peripheral arterial injury: A decade experience

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中华创伤杂志(英文版) 2025年第01期

作者： Priyadarshini Pratyusha Kaur Supreet Gupta Komal Kumar Abhinav Alam Junaid Bagaria Dinesh Choudhary Narender Gupta Amit Sagar Sushma Mishra Biplab Kumar Subodh Division of Trauma Surgery & Critical Care Jai Prakash Narayan Apex Trauma Centre All India Institute of Medical Sciences New Delhi India

Purpose:Outcomes of peripheral arterial injury (PAI) depend on various factors, such as warm ischemia time and concomitant injuries. Suboptimal prehospital care may lead to delayed presentation, and a lack of dedicated trauma system may lead to poorer outcome. Also, there are few reports of these outcomes. The study aims to review our experience of PAI management for more than a decade, and identify the predictors of limb loss in these ***:This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained database of trauma admissions at a level I trauma center from January 2008 to December 2019. Patients with acute upper limb arterial injuries or lower limb arterial injuries at or above the level of popliteal artery were included. Association of limb loss with ischemia time, mechanism of injury, and concomitant injuries was studied using multiple logistic regressions. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA version 15.0 (Stata Corp LLC, Texas).Results:Out of 716 patients with PAI, the majority (91.9%) were young males. Blunt trauma was the most common mechanism of injury. Median ischemia time was 4 h (interquartile range 2-7 h). Brachial artery (28.5%) was the most common injured vessel followed by popliteal artery (17.5%) and femoral artery (17.3%). Limb salvage rate was 78%. Out of them, 158 (22.1%) patients needed amputation, and 53 (7.4%) had undergone primary amputation. The majority (88.6%) of patients who required primary or secondary amputations had blunt trauma. On multivariate analysis, blunt trauma, ischemia time more than 6 h and concomitant venous, skeletal, and soft tissue injuries were associated with higher odds of ***:Over all limb salvage rates was 77.9% in our series. Blunt mechanism of injury and associated skeletal and soft tissue injury, ischemia time more than 6 h portend a poor prognosis. Injury prevention, robust prehospital care, and rapid referral to specialized trauma center are few efficient measures, whi

关键词： Vascular trauma Extremity vascular injury Amputation Vascular injury repair Peripheral arterial injury

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Forecasting tropical cyclone coastal and marine hazards and impacts

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 1-14页

作者： Nadao Kohno Cody Fritz Monica Sharma Robbie Berg Diana Greenslade Devon Telford Sakeasi Rabitu P.L.N.Murty M.Mohapatra Maria Cristina C.Uson Japan meteorological Agency TokyoJapan National Hurricane center MiamiUSA India meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Environment and Climate Change Canada QuebecCanada Fiji meteorological Service NadiFiji Philipine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationQuezon CityPhilippines

The report highlights the signiﬁcant progress over various regions with respect to understanding of coastal hazards,numerical modeling techniques and the generation&dissemination of coastal hazard warnings and *** developments over various regions in the globe during 2014–18 have been discussed in this report as presented during 10th Session of International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-X)at Bali,*** speciﬁcally,various regions have started to confront the uncertainty that cannot be removed from TC analyses and forecasts and further communicate those hazards within the context of risk[probabilistic]based *** also includes impact-based forecasts such as communicating coastal inundation information relative to total water level instead of storm surge,speciﬁcally(i.e.,anomaly from as-tronomical tide and waves).Lastly,updates to model grid conﬁguration,model resolution,and coupled dynamical systems continue to resolve the costal hazards more *** approaches have likely helped reduce loss of life relative to historical ***,regions agree that the generation and dissemination of coastal hazard information still need to be improved in view of growing population along the coast and thus increased exposure of life to coastal hazard.

关键词： Coastal inundation Storm surge Probabilistic forecast

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AN EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX DEFINED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第1期14卷 61-64页

作者：梁萍汤绪何金海陈隆勋 Shanghai Climate center Shanghai meteorological Bureau Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences

Using daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and observation rainfall data in China for the 1971-2000 period, a subtropical summer monsoon index has been defined by meridional moisture transport of the total atmosphere column. Results show that the subtropical summer monsoon index defined by the difference of meridional moisture transport between South China and North China can be used to describe the intensity of the subtropical summer monsoon. High (low) index is corresponding to strong (weak) subtropical summer monsoon. And the new index is well related to the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. In addition, the convergence of moisture transport from the west Pacific via the South China Sea and that from the North China may be responsible for the anomalously excessive summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

关键词： moisture transport index subtropical monsoon middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River precipitation

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A HWRF-POM-TC coupled model forecast performance over North Indian Ocean: VSCS TITLI & VSCS LUBAN

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2021年第1期10卷 54-70页

作者： Akhil Srivastava V.S.Prasad Ananda Kumar Das Arun Sharma India meteorological Department Ministry of Earth SciencesGovernment of IndiaNew-DelhiIndia National center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ministry of Earth SciencesGovernment of IndiaUttar PradeshIndia

The HWRF-POM-TC coupled model is run operationally at India meteorological Department(IMD).This study is first attempt to assess the IMD’s operational HWRF-POM-TC(Atmosphere-Ocean)coupled model forecast performance over North Indian Ocean(NIO).The two cyclonic storms one each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were *** them,VSCS LUBAN formed over Arabian Sea(AS)and was followed by the formation of VSCS TITLI over Bay of Bengal(Bo B).It constituted a rare case whereby two VSCS have formed in the north Indian Ocean(NIO)*** HWRF-POM-TC modeling system,which was developed at National centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)based on Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model(NMM)dynamic core,was customized for NIO *** the two storms,VSCS LUBAN&VSCS TITLI,28 and 15 consecutive 6-hourly HWRF model runs were *** HWRF-POM-TC coupled model showed great skill in forecasting of Track and Intensity for examined *** result shows that the model predicted the intensification and landfall of VSCS Luban&Titli in agreement with the best track data as made available by Cyclone Warning Division(CWD),India meteorological Department which is also recognized as regional specialized meteorological center(RSMC)by WMO for NIO.

关键词： Ocean coupled hurricane WRF POM-TC HWRF-POM-TC

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A new Post-hoc Flat Field Measurement Method for the Solar X-Ray and Extreme Ultraviolet Imager Onboard the FengYun-3E Satellite

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2022年第10期22卷 1-10页

作者： Qiao Song Xianyong Bai Bo Chen Xiuqing Hu Yajie Chen Zhenyong Hou Xiaofan Zhang Lingping He Kefei Song Peng Zhang Jing-Song Wang Xiaoxin Zhang Weiguo Zong Jinping Dun Hui Tian Yuanyong Deng Key Laboratory of Space Weather National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Space Weather Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Innovation center for Fengyun meteorological Satellite China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Changchun Institute of Optics Fine Mechanics and PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesChangchun 130033China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Extreme ultraviolet(EUV)observations are widely used in solar activity research and space weather forecasting since they can observe both the solar eruptions and the source regions of the solar *** field processing is indispensable to remove the instrumental non-uniformity of a solar EUV imager in producing high-quality scientific data from original observed ***-3E(FY-3E)is a meteorological satellite operated in a Sunsynchronous orbit,and the routine EUV imaging data from the Solar X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet Imager(X-EUVI)onboard FY-3E has the characteristic of concentric *** advantage of the concentric rotation,we propose a post-hoc flat field measurement method for its EUV 195A channel in this *** method removes the small-scale and time-varying component of coronal activities by taking the median value for each pixel along the time axis of a concentric rotation data cube,and then derives the large-scale and invariable component of the quiet coronal radiation,and finally generates a flat field *** flat field can be generated with cadences from hundreds of minutes(one orbit)to several *** flat field accuracy can be achieved by employing more *** analysis shows that our method is able to measure the instrumental spot-like nonuniformity possibly caused by contamination on the detector,which mostly disappears after the in-orbit selfcleaning *** can also measure the quasi-periodic grid-like non-uniformity,possibly from the obscuration of the support mesh on the rear *** flat field correction,these instrumental non-uniformities from the original data are effectively ***,the X-EUVI 195A data after dark and flat field corrections are consistent with the 193A imaging data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory,verifying the suitability of the *** post-hoc method does not occupy observation time,which is advantageous for space weather operatio

关键词： Sun corona-techniques image processing-methods data analysis-methods observational

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