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ARE THERE INTERANNUAL-TO-DECADAL SCALE OSCILLATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SEA ICE-THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION INTERACTIONS IN A SIMPLE COUPLED ATMO-SPHERE-OCEAN-SEA ICE MODEL?

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气象科学 2000年第3期20卷 413-426页

作者： Zhaomin Wang Lawrence A.Mysak (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and centre for Climate and Global Change Research, McGill University,Montreal,Quebec,Canada,H3A 2K6) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and centre for Climate and Global Change Research McGill UniversityMontrealQuebecCanadaH3A 2K6

A thermodynamic sea ice model is coupled to an annual mean,zonally averaged,one basin ocean thermohaline circulation(THC)model and an energy moisture balance model(EMBM)of the atmosphere in order to investigate the interactions between sea ice and the *** first,the coupled sea ice ocean model is run under mixed boundary conditions(MBCs),which precludes feedbacks from the *** occur on timescales ranging from interannual to decadal and are spatially confined to the sinking(deep convection)region of the *** negative feedback loop that explains these oscillations is essentially the same as proposed by Zhang,Lin and Greatbatch.A scale analysis shows that in this model only the process of deep convection can occur on interannual to decadal timescales,whereas changes in the basin scale THC occur on centennial to millennial *** means that interactions between sea ice and the large scale THC on interannual to decadal timescales are not possible under ***,after the atmosphere model is coupled to the above sea ice ocean model,the above oscillations due to the interactions between sea ice and deep convection are suppressed because of the following sequence of processes(positive feedback loop):when the ice retreats in a fully coupled system,the atmosphere warms up at high latitudes and hence the ice surface temperature increases,which then causes a further ice retreat.

关键词： Decadal acale oscillations Sea ice thermohaline Atmosphere ocean sea ice model

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Climatic and Physiographic Variables to Evaluate Culex pipiens s.l. Risk and Habitat

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2022年第8期10卷 1-8页

作者： Maria da Conceição Proença Maria João Alves Maria Teresa Rebelo MARE—Marine and Environmental Sciences centre & ARNET Aquatic Research Infrastructure Network Associated Laboratory Faculty of Sciences University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal Department of Physics Faculty of Sciences University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal National Health Institute Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA) &#193 guas de Moura Portugal CESAM-Ciências—centre for Environmental and Marine Studies Faculty of Sciences University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal Department of Animal Biology Faculty of Sciences University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal

Using a geographic information system (GIS), the relations between a georeferenced data set of Culex pipiens s.l. collected in Portugal mainland during seven years (2006-2012) and meteorological and physiographic parameters are evaluated. This work is one of the results of a long-term surveillance program of pernicious insects that act as vectors of various diseases;its focus is on the possibility of prevention that can be achieved with abundance data. The focus on Culex pipiens is justified by its abundance and its competence as a vector for numerous health issues. The cumulative distribution of monthly captures by each meteorological parameter allows to compute thresholds corresponding to mosquito massive presence related to 90% of the captures. Using the weather parameters measured in the network of weather stations across the country, a monthly average of each parameter of interest (temperature, humidity, etc.) is computed and an interpolation of the results is made to produce raster maps corresponding to each month. The previously obtained thresholds are applied to each map, producing spatial masks with the relevant zones for each parameter. The intersection of the various masks for each month shows the most densely populated area of Culex, and the ensemble allows us to observe the evolution of mosquito presence through the critical season, which is from May to October at these latitudes. In parallel, mosquito abundance data are related to physiographic parameters. The relative distribution of female mosquitoes across land cover types in each month allows identifying which classes and seasons are most relevant. Orthometric altitude related to the presence of 90% of the catches shows the limits reached by mosquitoes in each month. The results are applied to the previously obtained climate envelopes, delimiting critical areas where the level of risk of transmission of the pathogens for which Culex pipiens is a competent vector is high and countermeasures should b

关键词： Vector-Borne Diseases Transmission Risk Culex pipiens s.l. GIS Global Changes

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Using Landsat images to monitor changes in the snow-covered area of selected glaciers in northern Pakistan

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第10期14卷 2013-2027页

作者： Chaman GUL KANG Shi-chang Badar GHAURI Mateeul HAQ Sher MUHAMMAD Shaukat ALI State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 73000 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences No.19A Yuquan Road Beijing 100049 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Institute of Space Technology (IST) Karachi Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) Karachi Pakistan Global Change Impact Studies centre (GCISC) Ministry of Climate Change Islamabad Pakistan

Landsat satellite images were used to map and monitor the snow-covered areas of four glaciers with different aspects(Passu: 36.473°N, 74.766°E;Momhil: 36.394°N, 75.085°E; Trivor: 36.249°N,74.968°E; and Kunyang: 36.083°N, 75.288°E) in the upper Indus basin, northern Pakistan, from 1990-2014. The snow-covered areas of the selected glaciers were identified and classified using supervised and rule-based image analysis techniques in three different seasons. Accuracy assessment of the classified images indicated that the supervised classification technique performed slightly better than the rule-based technique. Snow-covered areas on the selected glaciers were generally reduced during the study period but at different rates. Glaciers reached maximum areal snow coverage in winter and premonsoon seasons and minimum areal snow coverage in monsoon seasons, with the lowest snow-covered area occurring in August and September. The snowcovered area on Passu glacier decreased by 24.50%,3.15% and 11.25% in the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. Similarly, the other three glaciers showed notable decreases in snow-covered area during the pre-and post-monsoon seasons; however, no clear changes were observed during monsoon seasons. During pre-monsoon seasons, the eastward-facing glacier lost comparatively more snow-covered area than the westward-facing glacier. The average seasonal glacier surface temperature calculated from the Landsat thermal band showed negative correlations of-0.67,-0.89,-0.75 and-0.77 with the average seasonal snowcovered areas of the Passu, Momhil, Trivor and Kunyang glaciers, respectively, during pre-monsoon seasons. Similarly, the air temperature collected from a nearby meteorological station showed an increasing trend, indicating that the snow-covered area reduction in the region was largely due to climate warming.

关键词： Snow-covered area Glacier Global warming Classification technique Northern Pakistan

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Climate Change and Dynamics of the ITCZ on the Hydro-Climatic Regime of the Northern Ecosystems of the Gulf of Guinea: A Case of the Grand-Lahou Lagoon System

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第4期12卷 635-647页

作者： Kanakounou Jean-Marie Kone Vamara Kone Kouassi Aimé Yao Kouassi Paul Anoh centre de Recherches Océanologiques Abidjan C&#244 te d’Ivoire Institut de Géographie Tropicale Université Félix Houphou&#235 t Boigny Abidjan C&#244 te d’Ivoire

Atmospheric dynamics and climatology in West Africa are strongly dominated by the latitudinal migration of the ITCZ which imposes directly or indirectly determinism on coastal ecosystems. Thus, the Grand-Lahou lagoon system and its watershed are influenced by the ITCZ, whose seasonal study made it possible to understand its mode of action first on climatic factors, then hydroclimatic, and finally hydrological in the context of global changes. The study of these factors showed a differentiated impact of its migration on the hydrological regime defining a new configuration of the lagoon system and beyond;the coastal ecosystems of the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea irrigated by numerous fluvial inputs. Salinity, a hydrological parameter of critical ecosystem importance, combined with transparency and depth, has enabled the spatio-temporal description of hydrology. To do this, a series of monthly measurements (in-situ) for spatial coverage of 25 stations was tested. Long before that, the climatic and hydroclimatic parameters were obtained respectively at SODEXAM, the meteorological site *** and ONADE. This study brought together the dynamics of the ITCZ and the hydrological system of the lagoon.

关键词： Climate Change Dynamics of the ITCZ Hydro-Climatic Regime Grand-Lahou Lagoon System Coastal Ecosystems

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Distribution Characteristics of Ozone and the Relationship with Typhoon Processes in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

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meteorological and Environmental Research 2023年第3期14卷 37-44页

作者： Li CHEN Shichang GUO Ting HU Yunfeng GAO Lijiang Sanyi Airport of Yunnan Airport Group Limited Liability Company Lijiang 674100China Yunnan University Kunming 650091China Guangzhou meteorological Bureau Guangzhou 511430China

Based on the vertical ozone reanalysis data and total ozone column data derived from the European centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of ozone on each isobaric surface in the troposphere over the Northwest Pacific Ocean were analyzed,and the backward trajectory method was used to track the influence of typhoon on the distribution of *** results show that the updraft near the typhoon center transported the air with low O_(3)content in the lower layer to the upper layer,which reduced O_(3)content in the upper layer and formed a low-value area of O_(3).The variation trend of total ozone column in the regions where typhoons"Megi"and"Fengshen"occurred was analyzed by the case analysis *** is found that there was a low-value area of total ozone column anomaly near the typhoon center,and there was a certain correlation between typhoon intensity PDI and total ozone column anomaly at the development and maturity stages of typhoons.

关键词： Ozone mass mixing ratio Typhoon Total ozone column Backword trajectory method

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Variation of Dynamical Parameters with Upper Tropospheric Potential Vorticity in Tropical Cyclone over the North Indian Ocean Using WRF Model

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2023年第3期6卷 20-29页

作者： A.H.M.Fazla Rabbi Ishtiaque M.Syed Md.Abdullah Elias Akhter M A K Mallik Department of Physics University of DhakaDhaka1000Bangladesh Department of Physics Khulna University of Engineering and TechnologyKhulna9208Bangladesh Bangladesh meteorological Department AgargaonDhaka1207Bangladesh

Meteorologists are experiencing many challenges in the reliable forecasting of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones(TC).Uses of the potential vorticity(PV)technique will enrich the current forecasting *** use of PV analysis of TC intensification over the North Indian Ocean(NIO)is *** this study,the authors analyze the behaviour of upper-level PV with dynamic parameters of TCs over *** authors used NCEP FNL reanalysis 1×1 degree data as input in WRF model version 4.0.3 with one-way nesting between the parent and child *** authors used a coupling of the Kain-Fritsch(new Eta)scheme and the WSM 6-class graupel scheme as cumulus and microphysics options to run the *** authors found that at least one potential vorticity unit(PVU)(1 PVU=10^(-6) m^(2)s^(-1)KKg^(-1))upper PV is required to maintain the intensification of *** upper PV accelerates the fall of central *** high value of upper PV yields the intensification of *** wind shear and upper PV exhibited almost identical temporal *** PV cannot intensify the TCs at negative wind shear and shear above the threshold value of 12 ms^(-1).The upper PV and geopotential heights of 500 hPa change mutually in opposite *** upper PV calculated by the model is comparable to that of ECMWF ***,the findings of this study are admissible.

关键词： Dynamic Vorticity Geopotential WRF Tropical and intensification

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Data fusion and machine learning for ship fuel efficiency modeling:Part Ⅱ-Voyage report data,AIS data and meteorological data

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Communications in Transportation Research 2022年第1期2卷 222-243页

作者： Yuquan Du Yanyu Chen Xiaohe Li Alessandro Schonborn Zhuo Sun centre for Maritime and Logistics Management Australian Maritime CollegeUniversity of TasmaniaLauncestonTAS 7250Australia Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies College of Sciences and EngineeringUniversity of TasmaniaTaroonaTAS 7053Australia College of Power and Energy Engineering Harbin Engineering UniversityHarbin150001China Maritime Energy Management World Maritime UniversityFiskehamnsgatan 120124 MalmoSweden College of Transportation Engineering Dalian Maritime UniversityDalian116026China

When voyage report data is utilized as the main data source for ship fuel efficiency analysis,its information on weather and sea conditions is often regarded as *** solve this issue,this study approaches AIS data to obtain the ship's actual detailed geographical positions along its sailing trajectory and then further retrieve the weather and sea condition information from publicly accessible meteorological data *** more reliable data about weather and sea conditions the ship sails through is fused into voyage report data in order to improve the accuracy of ship fuel consumption rate *** 8100-TEU to 14,000-TEU containerships from a global shipping company were used in *** each ship,nine datasets were constructed based on data fusion and eleven widely-adopted machine learning models were *** results revealed the benefits of fusing voyage report data,AIS data,and meteorological data in improving the fit performances of machine learning models of forecasting ship fuel consumption *** the best datasets,the performances of several decision tree-based models are promising,including Extremely randomized trees(ET),AdaBoost(AB),Gradient Tree Boosting(GB)and XGBoost(XG).With the best datasets,their R^(2) values over the training sets are all above 0.96 and mostly reach the level of 0.99-1.00,while their R^(2) values over the test sets are in the range from 0.75 to *** errors of ET,AB,GB,and XG on daily bunker fuel consumption,measured by RMSE and MAE,are usually between 0.8 and 4.5 ton/*** results are slightly better than our previous study,which confirms the benefits of adopting the actual geographical positions of the ship recorded by AIS data,compared with the estimated geographical positions derived from the great circle route,in retrieving weather and sea conditions the ship sails through.

关键词： Ship fuel efficiency Fuel consumption rate Voyage report AIS Data fusion Machine learning

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A New Method for Predicting the Decadal Component of Global SST

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 521-526页

作者： LUO Fei-Fei LI Shuanglin GAO Yong-Qi Tore FUREVIK Nansen-Zhu International Research centre and Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen Norway Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway

A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.

关键词： decadal climate prediction internal decadal variability anthropogenic forcing SST

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不同再分析气温在东南极中山站-Dome A断面的适用性评价

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中国科学：地球科学 2014年第7期44卷 156-168页

作者：谢爱红 Ian ALLISON 效存德王士猛任贾文秦大河中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室兰州730000 Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre 中国气象科学研究院北京100081

对比分析2005～2008年五种再分析资料和东南极地区气象站实测的日平均2m气温，结果表明：五种再分析资料都能够解释超过70％的方差，年均方根误差为3．4～6．9℃．三种NOAA再分析资料NCEP-1，NCEP．2和20CRv2呈现冷偏差（分别为-2．5，-... 详细信息

对比分析2005～2008年五种再分析资料和东南极地区气象站实测的日平均2m气温，结果表明：五种再分析资料都能够解释超过70％的方差，年均方根误差为3．4～6．9℃．三种NOAA再分析资料NCEP-1，NCEP．2和20CRv2呈现冷偏差（分别为-2．5，-1．4和-1．5℃），ERAInterim和JCDAS呈现暖偏差（分别为1．7和2．0℃）．五种再分析气温通常在（南半球）春季适用性强，冬、秋季适用性差；在海拔2800m高原内陆EAGLE地区适用性最强，在东南极冰盖最高点DomeA地区适用性最差．ERAInterim适用性优于其他再分析资料，可能源于其4D同化体系；三种NOAA再分析资料适用性最差，因为其同化体系更多地受控于有限的观测资料，20CRv2同化数据更少，仅仅同化了表面气压观测资料．虽然再分析气温具有一定的不足和局限性，但是，仍然不失为南极地区气候研究的有效工具．在南极，尤其是在广袤的南极内陆地区，进一步加强更多的实地观测显得尤为重要．

关键词：东南极再分析资料表层气温中山站-Dome A 自动气象站

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Modelling of Eruptive Fire Occurrence and Behaviour

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2014年第3期3卷 115-132页

作者： Jacques-Henri Balbi Frangois Joseph Chatelon Jean Louis Rossi Albert Simeoni Domingos Xavier Viegas Carlos Rossa Research Laboratory 6134 National Center for Scientific Research University of Corsica Corte 20250 France Building Research Establisment centre for Fire Safety Engineering University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH93JL Scotland centre of Studies on Forest Fires Association for the Development of the Industrial Aerodynamics University of CoimbraCoimbra 3030-790 Portugal Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Coimbra Coimbra 3030-790 Portugal School of Technology and Management Polytechnic Institute of Leiria Leiria 2411-901 Portugal

Eruptive fires are one of the main causes of human losses in forest fire fighting. The sudden change in fire behaviour due to a fire eruption is extremely dangerous for fire-fighters because it is unpredictable. Very little literature is available to support either modelling or occurrence prediction for this phenomenon. In this study, an unsteady physical model of fire spread is detailed, which describes the initiation and development of eruptive fires with an induced wind sub-model. The latter phenomenon is proposed as the mainspring of fire eruptions. Induced wind is proportional to the rate of spread and the rate of spread is in a non-linear relationship with induced wind. This feedback can converge or diverge depending on the conditions. The model allows both explaining why an eruption can occur and predicting explicitly its occurrence according to meteorological conditions, topographic parameters, fuel bed properties and fire front width. The model is tested by comparing its results to a set of experiments carried out at laboratory scale and during an outdoor wildfire, the Kornati accident.

关键词： Eruptive fire unsteady solutions fire spread physical model.

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