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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Nina events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Impact of Atmospheric Transmittance and NLTE Correction on Simulation of High Spectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder onboard FY-3E

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 225-234页

作者： Chenggege FANG Peiming DONG Yang HAN Wanlin KAN Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Donghai Laboratory Zhoushan 316021 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China meteorological Administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041

With the launch of the first civilian early-morning orbit satellite Fengyun-3E(FY-3E),higher demands are placed on the accuracy of radiative transfer simulations for hyperspectral infrared ***,several key issues are investigated in the ***,the accuracy of the fast atmospheric transmittance model implemented in the Advanced Research and Modeling System(ARMS)has been evaluated with both the line-by-line radiative transfer model(LBLRTM)and the actual satellite *** results indicate that the biases are generally less than 0.25 K when compared to the LBLRTM,while below 1.0 K for the majority of the channels when compared to the ***,during both comparisons,significant biases are observed in certain *** accuracy of Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II(HIRAS-II)onboard FY-3E is comparable to,and even superior to that of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder(CrIS)onboard ***,apodization is a crucial step in the processing of hyperspectral data in that the apodization function is utilized as the instrument channel spectral response function to produce the satellite channel-averaged *** further explore the difference between the apodized and unapodized simulations,Sinc function is adopted in the fast transmittance *** is found that the use of Sinc function can make the simulations fit the original satellite observations *** simulating with apodized observations,the use of Sinc function exhibits larger deviations compared to the Hamming ***,a correction module is applied to minimize the impact of Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium(NLTE)in the shortwave infrared *** is verified that the implementation of the NLTE correction model leads to a significant reduction in the bias between the simulation and observation for this band.

关键词： high spectral infrared sounding atmospheric transmittance apodization Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)

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Evaluation and Projection of Extreme High Temperature Indices in Southwestern China Using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 88-107页

作者： Fen ZHANG Linxiao WEI Yonghua LI Hongyu TANG Tianyu ZHANG Baogang YANG China meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resource to Economy Chongqing Climate CentreChongqing 401147

Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 11 optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.

关键词： NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 extreme high temperature(EHT) southwestern China evaluation projection

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Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1115-1131页

作者： Lanqiang BAI Dan YAO Zhiyong MENG Yu ZHANG Xianxiang HUANG Zhaoming LI Xiaoding YU Foshan Tornado Research Center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryGuangdong Meteorological Serviceand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Guangdong 528000China meteorological Observation centre CMABeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratorySchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou meteorological Observatory CMAGuangdong 511430China Foshan Tornado Research Center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryCMAGuangdong 528000China China meteorological Administration Training Center CMABeijing 528000China

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China *** the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective *** two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this *** I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm *** rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold *** intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and *** on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple *** over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level *** is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical *** findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear *** knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

关键词： tornado mesovortex surface boundary land–sea contrast monsoon

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Evaluation of CLDAS and GPM Precipitation Products over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer 2005–2021 Based on Hourly Rain Gauge Observations

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 749-767页

作者： Qiaohua LIU Xiuping YAO School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological Administration Training centre Beijing 100081

Accurate,reliable,and high spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products are essential for precipitation research,hydrological simulation,disaster warning,and many other applications over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) data are widely recognized as the most reliable satellite precipitation product for the *** China meteorological Administration(CMA) Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS) precipitation fusion dataset(CLDAS-Prcp),hereafter referred to as CLDAS,is a high-resolution,self-developed precipitation product in China with regional *** on the TP,this study provides a long-term evaluation of CLDAS and GPM from various aspects,including characteristics on different timescales,diurnal variation,and elevation impacts,based on hourly rain gauge data in summer from 2005 to *** results show that CLDAS and GPM are highly effective alternatives to the rain gauge records over the *** both perform well for precipitation amount and frequency on multiple *** tends to overestimate precipitation amount and underestimate precipitation frequency over the ***,GPM tends to overestimate both precipitation amount and *** difference between them mainly lies in the trace *** and GPM effectively capture rainfall events,but their performance decreases significantly as intensity *** both show better accuracy in diurnal variation of precipitation amount than frequency,and their performance tends to be superior during nighttime compared to the ***,there are some differences of the two against rain gauge observations in diurnal variation,especially in the phase of the diurnal *** performance of CLDAS and GPM varies at different *** both have the best performance over 3000–3500 *** elevation dependence of CLDAS is relatively minor,while GPM shows a stronger elevation dependence in terms of precipitation *** tends to ov

关键词： China meteorological Administration(CMA)Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)precipitation fusion dataset(CLDAS-Prcp) Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) Tibetan Plateau(TP) precipitation evaluation

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Dynamic synthetic analysis of circulation field of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 347-363页

作者： Wen GU Caijun YUE Zhihui HAN Yanqing GAO Yuqi TANG Xiangyu AO Yao YAO Shanghai Ecological Forecasting&Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China Shanghai Marine meteorological centre Shanghai 200030China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone(China meteorological Administration) Shanghai 200030China

Eleven tropical cyclones(TCs)affected Shanghai and crossed the same latitude as Shanghai from 2007 to *** to similar tracks from best-track data,TCs that cause significant precipitation in Shanghai can be divided into three types:landfall TCs,nearshore northward TCs,and western *** on ERA5 reanalysis data,the dynamic synthesis method was used to synthesize TC circulation situations to compare thermal,dynamic,water vapor,and stability conditions within TC circulations during the period when they affected *** conclusions are as follows.1)When the three TC types are at the same latitude as Shanghai,they are all in the divergent field in the upper *** the landfall type,the subtropical high at 500 hPa is stronger and farther north than usual,and there is a high-pressure dam on the north side of the TCs.2)The warm advection of the three TC types at 925 hPa is located in the northern quadrant of the *** dynamic and water vapor conditions are good in the north-western quadrant of landfall and western TCs,and more favorable in the eastern quadrant of nearshore northward TCs.3)The favorable effects of all three types on precipitation in Shanghai come from the boundary *** vapor,upward motion,and instability conditions of landfall TCs are superior to the other two TC *** best water vapor,dynamic,and convective instability conditions are at the northern boundary in Shanghai during landfall TCs,and the main sources of water vapor in Shanghai come from the eastern and northern *** nearshore northward TCs,the main contribution to precipitation is from the eastern boundary,while better dynamic and water vapor conditions come from the western and northern boundaries during western *** above findings provide scientific and technical support for operational forecasting precipitation from TCs affecting mega-cities.

关键词： tropical cyclones dynamic synthetic analysis ERA5 reanalysis Shanghai similar track

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Character of Convective Systems Producing Short-Term Heavy Precipitation in Central China Revealed by Kilometer and Minute Interval Observations

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 530-541页

作者： Zitong CHEN Yunying LI Zhiwei ZHANG Jing SUN Chengzhi YE Anyuan XIONG College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410073China High Impact Weather Key Laboratory of China meteorological Administration Changsha410073China Unit No.92192 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army Ningbo315000China Hubei Key Research Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan430223China Institute of meteorological Sciences of Hunan Province Hunan Meteorological BureauChangsha410118China National meteorological Information centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Accurate forecasting of heavy precipitation in central China is still a challenge,within which a key issue is our still incomplete understanding of the convective systems(CSs)responsible for such *** this study,through use of an iterative rain-cell tracking algorithm,the macroscale characteristics(scale,intensity,duration,etc.)of the CSs that produced 595 short-term heavy precipitation events in Hunan Province,central China,are quantitatively analyzed,based on radar reflectivity,echo top,and rainfall observations at 1-km and 6-min intervals in April-September of *** results show that CSs present significant seasonal and diurnal *** CSs usually cover a larger echo area with stronger convective cores and thus generate more precipitation than summer CSs,though summer CSs develop more vigorously and *** initiated at 1400-1600 local time are characterized by the strongest convection and a smaller spatiotemporal scale,causing violent and transient showers with typical areal precipitation of 0.5-1 mm km^(−2),but less total *** analyses of the relationships among the scale,intensity,duration,and total precipitation of CSs reveal that the convective intensity is linearly correlated to the spatiotemporal scale of CSs,with the duration increasing on average by 0.0372 h dBZ^(−1);the echo area is significantly correlated to the total precipitation,and the duration and rainfall amount are connected with the area expansion rate(AER)of CSs:when the AER exceeds 50%,CSs expand rapidly with increasing total precipitation,but the duration is *** findings provide a helpful reference for the forecasting of short-term heavy precipitation induced by CSs in central China.

关键词： convective system radar reflectivity factor total precipitation iterative rain-cell tracking

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Assessment of ECMWF’s Precipitation Forecasting Performance for China from 2017 to 2022

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 257-274页

作者： PAN Liu-jie ZHANG Hong-fang LIANG Mian LIU Jia-huimin DAI Chang-ming Shaanxi meteorological Observatory Xi’an 710014 China Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau Xi’an 710014 China Shaanxi meteorological Service centre Xi’an 710014 China

This study used the China meteorological Administration(CMA)three-source fusion gridded precipitation analysis data as a reference to evaluate the precipitation forecast performance of the European centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model for China from 2017 to *** main conclusions are as *** precipitation forecast capability of the ECMWF model for China has gradually improved from 2017 to *** scores such as bias,equitable threat score(ETS),and Fractions Skill Score(FSS)showed improvements for different categories of *** bias of light rain forecasts overall adjusted towards smaller values,and the increase in forecast scores was greater in the warm season than in the cold *** ETS for torrential rain more intense categories significantly increased,although there were large fluctuations in bias across different *** model exhibited higher precipitation bias in most areas of North China,indicating overprediction,while it showed lower bias in South China,indicating *** ETSs indicate that the model performed better in forecasting precipitation in the northeastern part of China without the influence of climatic background *** of the differences between the first period and the second period of the forecast shows that the precipitation amplitude in the ECMWF forecast shifted from slight underestimation to overestimation compared to that of CMPAS05,reducing the likelihood of missing extreme precipitation *** improvement in ETS is mainly due to the reduction in bias and false alarm rates and,more importantly,an increase in the hit *** 2017 to 2022,the area coverage error of model precipitation forecast relative to observations showed a decreasing trend at different scales,while the FSS showed an increasing trend,with the highest FSS observed in *** ETS followed a parabolic trend with increasing neighborhood radius,with the better ETS neighborhood radius generally

关键词： ECMWF forecasting verification neighborhood verification FSS

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Progress and Achievements of Fengyun meteorological Satellite Program since 2022

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空间科学学报 2024年第4期44卷 712-721页

作者： GUAN Min WANG Jingsong ZHAO Xiangang QIN Danyu FAN Cunqun XIAN Di LIU Chang National Satellite meteorological Center(National centre for Space Weather) Beijing 100081 Innovation Center for Fengyun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites/Key Laboratory of Space Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Fengyun meteorological satellites have undergone a series of significant developments over the past 50 *** generations,four types,and 21 Fengyun satellites have been developed and launched,with 9 currently operational in *** data obtained from Fengyun satellites is employed in a multitude of applications,including weather forecasting,meteorological disaster prevention and reduction,climate change,global environmental monitoring,and space *** data products and services are made available to the global community,resulting in tangible social and economic *** 2023,two Fengyun meteorological satellites were successfully *** report presents an overview of the two recently launched Fengyun satellites and currently in orbit Fengyun satellites,including an evaluation of their remote sensing instruments since ***,it addresses the subject of Fengyun satellite data archiving,data services,application services,international cooperation,and supporting ***,the development prospects have been outlined.

关键词： Fengyun meteorological satellites Data services and application International cooperation and support

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Improving the Forecasts of Coastal Wind Speeds in Tianjin,China Based on the WRF Model with Machine Learning Algorithms

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 570-585页

作者： Weihang ZHANG Meng TIAN Shangfei HAI Fei WANG Xiadong AN Wanju LI Xiaodong LI Lifang SHENG College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao266100China Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology Tianjin Institute of Meteorological ScienceTianjin300074China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing100081China Qingdao meteorological Bureau Qingdao266003China

Characterized by sudden changes in strength,complex influencing factors,and significant impacts,the wind speed in the circum-Bohai Sea area is relatively challenging to *** the western side of Bohai Bay,as the economic center of the circum-Bohai Sea,Tianjin exhibits a high demand for accurate wind *** this study,three machine learning algorithms were employed and compared as post-processing methods to correct wind speed forecasts by the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model for *** results showed that the random forest(RF)achieved better performance in improving the forecasts because it substantially reduced the model bias at a lower computing cost,while the support vector machine(SVM)performed slightly worse(especially for stronger winds),but it required an approximately 15 times longer computing *** back propagation(BP)neural network produced an average forecast significantly closer to the observed forecast but insufficiently reduced the *** regard to wind speed frequency forecasting,the RF method commendably corrected the forecasts of the frequency of moderate(force 3)wind speeds,while the BP method showed a desirable capability for correcting the forecasts of stronger(force>6)*** addition,the 10-m u and v components of wind(u_(10)and v_(10)),2-m relative humidity(RH_(2))and temperature(T_(2)),925-hPa u(u925),sea level pressure(SLP),and 500-hPa temperature(T_(500))were identified as the main factors leading to bias in wind speed forecasting by the WRF model in Tianjin,indicating the importance of local dynamical/thermodynamic processes in regulating the wind *** study demonstrates that the combination of numerical models and machine learning techniques has important implications for refined local wind forecasting.

关键词： machine learning Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model wind speed forecasting coastal region

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