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Deep learning-based subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction in southwest China:Algorithm comparison and sensitivity to input features

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第4期7卷 471-486页

作者： GuoLu Gao Yang Li XueYun Zhou XiaoMing Xiang JiaQi Li ShuCheng Yin Ya’an meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauYa’an Sichuan 625000China Plateau and Basin Rainstorm Drought and Flood Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610000China College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China meteorological Observation and Data Centre Sichuan Meteorological BureauChengdu 610072China Leshan meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauLeshan Sichuan 614000China quanzhou meteorological Observatory Fujian Meteorological BureauQuanzhou Fujian 362000China

The prediction of precipitation at subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)timescales remains an enormous challenge because of the gap between weather and climate *** study compares three deep learning algorithms,namely,the long short-term memory recurrent(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and recurrent neural network(RNN),and selects the optimal algorithm to establish an S2S precipitation prediction *** models were evaluated in four subregions of the Sichuan province:the Plateau,Valley,eastern Basin,and western *** results showed that the RNN model had better performance than the LSTM and GRU *** could be because the RNN model had an advantage over the LSTM model in the transformation of climate indices with positive and negative *** the validation of test datasets,the RNN model successfully predicted the precipitation trend in most years during the wet season(May-October).The RNN model had a lower prediction bias(within±10%),higher sign accuracy of the precipitation trend(~88.95%),and greater accuracy of the maximum precipitation month(>0.85).For the prediction of different lead times,the RNN model was able to provide a stable trend prediction for summer precipitation,and the time correlation coefficient score was higher than that of the National Climate Center of ***,this study proposed a method to measure the sensitivity of the RNN model to different input features,which may provide unprecedented insights into the nonlinear relationship and complicated feedback process among climate *** results of the sensitivity distribution are as ***,the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were equally important for the prediction of wet season ***,the sensitivity of the snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau was higher than that in the Northern ***,an opposite sensitivity appeared in two different patterns of the Indian Ocean and sea ice concentrations in the Arctic and the Barents Sea.

关键词： recurrent neural network long short-term memory recurrent sensitivity analysis artificial intelligence explainability complex terrain southwest China

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DOPPLER RADAR ECHO CHARACTERISTICS FOR COLD AIR INTRUDING INTO TYPHOON CHANCHU

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第1期16卷 82-85页

作者：魏应植吴陈锋林长城孙旭光 fujian meteorological bureau Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Xiamen meteorological bureau Meteorology Research Institute of fujian province Nanjing University

With Doppler radar data from Shantou and Xiamen and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data, the characteristics of a short-term heavy rainstorm on 17 May 2006 caused by Typhoon Chanchu are studied. Doppler radar data indicates that during the period from 1800 to 1900 May 17, the azimuthal phases of the positive and negative radial wind maximums are asymmetric around the core radius of the typhoon, i.e., the radial wind on the left side of the track is anomalously larger than that on the right side. Studies show that this is induced by the intrusion of cold air （northeasterly wind）, which is primarily located at the mid-lower layers, lower than 4 kin; this is due to the intruding cold air that forces the atmosphere to uplift, enhancing the release of instability energy, which triggers the heavy precipitation. During the late stage of the cold air activity, the typhoon is rapidly weakened. Consistent with the radar-observed intrusion of cold air, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of wind data also shows that there are obvious large scalar wind values at the mid-lower layers （approximately 1-3 km） to the left of the typhoon center （1800 May 17）, and in all regions--except those affected by the intruding cold air--the wind speeds on the right side of the track remain larger than those on the left side. Furthermore, the Rankine model results confirm that northeasterly cold air is introduced to the typhoon at the mid-lower layers to the left of the track. Calculations also point out that there exists a frontal zone with high θse that tilts from southeast to northwest with height and the super heavy rainstorm occurring in the south of fujian province lies just near the fxontal zone.

关键词： Typhoon Chanchu cold air Doppler radar data

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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Drought and Flood in quanzhou Based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Recent 55 Years

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2018年第8期6卷 25-37页

作者： Dehe Liu Jingfei You Qijie Xie Yuanyuan Huang Huajun Tong Yongchun County meteorological bureau of fujian province Yongchun China quanzhou meteorological bureau of fujian province Quanzhou China Nan’an meteorological bureau of fujian province Nan’an China

To analyze the characteristics of drought and flood variations in quanzhou during recent 55 years, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) were calculated by using the monthly precipitation data from 6 meteorological bureaus across quanzhou for 1960-2014. Results showed that: 1) During 1960-2014, the drought and flood showed Periodic variation characteristics in quanzhou, the specific period of frequent drought was 1963-1972, 1977-1986 and 2009-2011, and the specific period of frequent flood was 1961-1962, 1972-1975, 1990-1992 and 1997-2007;the drought and flood did not have significant tendency of variation in Spring and Summer, and the drought and flood showed a non-significant downward trend in Autumn and Winter. 2) The drought and flood variation had relatively consistent trend in quanzhou, but there was a big difference on the northwest mountainous area, the middle semi-mountainous area and the southeast coast area in some periods. 3) The precipitation cell and distribution in every season were Nan’an and Anxi, but there was a big difference in rainfall less area: it was Yongchun and Dehua in Spring, Chongwu and Jinjiang in Summer, Chongwu in Autumn, Dehua and Chongwu in Winter.

关键词： Standardized Precipitation Index Drought and Flood Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF)

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Serum neuron-specific enolase:A promising biomarker of silicosis

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2021年第5期9卷 1016-1025页

作者： Hong-Bo Huang Jun-Ling Huang Xiao-Ting Xu Kun-Bo Huang Yi-Jian Lin Jie-Bin Lin Xi-Bin Zhuang Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Quanzhou First Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical UniversityQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Clinical Laboratory Quanzhou First Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical UniversityQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Internal Medicine Infectious Disease Hospital of QuanzhouQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Silicosis is a type of chronic pulmonary fibrosis caused by long-term inhalation of silica dust *** has been no ideal biomarker for the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of silicosis until *** have found that elevated neuron-specific enolase(NSE)concentration in the serum of silicosis patients is helpful for diagnosis and severity assessment of the ***,the number of cases in these studies was not enough to arouse *** To investigate the clinical significance of serum NSE in the diagnosis and staging of *** From January 2017 to June 2019,326 cases of silicosis confirmed in quanzhou First Hospital Affiliated to fujian Medical University were included in the silicosis group.A total of 328 healthy individuals or medical patients without silicosis were included in the control *** NSE concentrations of all subjects were determined by electrochemical *** There were no significant differences in sex,age,smoking index and complications between the silicosis and control *** mean serum NSE concentration was 26.57±20.95 ng/mL in the silicosis group and 12.42±2.68 ng/mL in the control *** difference between the two groups was significant(U=15187,P=0.000).Among the 326 patients with silicosis,103 had stage I silicosis,and the mean serum NSE concentration was 15.55±6.23 ng/*** mean serum NSE concentration was 21.85±12.05 ng/mL in 70 patients with stage II *** mean serum NSE concentration was 36.14±25.72 ng/mL in 153 patients with stage III ***-Wallis H test suggested that the difference in serum NSE concentration in silicosis patients in the three groups was significant(H=130.196,P=0.000).Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve was 0.858(95%confidence interval:0.828-0.888;P=0.000).When the NSE concentration was 15.82 ng/mL,the Jorden index was the largest,the sensitivity was 72%,and the specificity wa

关键词： Silicosis Neuron-specific enolase Receiver operating characteristic curve Disease stage Biomarker Diagnosis

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Study on pathogenic genes of dwarfism disease by next-generation sequencing

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2021年第7期9卷 1600-1609页

作者： Lv-Lv Yang Shi-Shan Liang Department of Pediatrics Quanzhou First HospitalQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND There are many factors that lead to dwarfism,and the mechanism has not yet been ***-generation sequencing may identify candidate-related gene mutations,which may clarify the molecular *** To analyze genetic variation by using a constructed panel related to dwarfism by utilizing next-generation sequencing platform sequencing analysis to screen candidate-related gene *** Physical and laboratory characteristics,including clinical examination,growth hormone drug challenge test,serum insulin-like growth factor-1(IGF-1),IGF binding protein 3,other related tests,imaging examination,and chromosome karyotyping,were ***-generation sequencing was performed to analyze pathogenicity *** In the 39 dwarfism patients,10 had pathogenicity *** variation was found in the OBSL1,SLC26A2,PTPN11,COL27AI,HDAC6,CUL7,FGFR3,DYNC2H1,GH1,and ATP7B *** the 10 patients with pathogenicity variability,the related physical characteristics included double breast development and growth hormone deficiency,enuresis and indirect inguinal hernia on the left,two finger distance of 70.2 cm,head circumference of 49.2 cm,ischium/lower body length of 1.8 cm,weak limb muscles,and partial growth hormone *** 6 mo of growth hormone therapy,the concentrations of IGF-1 and IGF binding protein 3 increased from 215.2±170.3 to 285.0±166.0 and 3.9±1.4 to 4.2±1.1,*** OBSL1,SLC26A2,PTPN11,COL27AI,HDAC6,CUL7,FGFR3,DYNC2H1,GH1,and ATP7B genes may be related to the incidence of dwarfism,and more research needs to be performed to elucidate the mechanism.

关键词： Dwarfism Next-generation sequencing Pathogenicity variability Growth hormone Therapy Mechanism

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meteorological Drought Warning Research in fujian province, China during 1971-2016

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2019年第11期7卷 220-228页

作者： Shanmei Li Xianmei Wang Chengliang Gao Xiaobing Ye Pingtan Comprehensive Pilot Zone meteorological bureau of fujian province Pingtan China Yongchun County meteorological bureau of fujian province Quanzhou China

This paper optimizes the meteorological drought assessment method in fujian province, China, making it more suitable for long-term serial drought statistics. Using the precipitation data of Pingtan National Basic Weather Station from 1971 to 2016, according to the optimized meteorological drought assessment method, statistics Pingtan meteorological drought process, and its characteristics analysis;through the multi-model integrated forecasting super-aggregate method, the 2011-2014 fujian precipitation reality and the European Center, T639, WRF, Japan and other numerical forecast products were used for comparative analysis. The use of multiple regression method was used to forecast precipitation, by the localized precipitation correction scheme. The early warning method of single station meteorological drought process based on precipitation reality and precipitation forecast is obtained, and the platformization idea is proposed.

关键词： meteorological Drought Precipitation Correction Early Warning Method Business Platform

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ASIAN-PACIFIC OSCILLATION IN AUTUMN AND ITS RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MONSOON IN EAST ASIA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2015年第2期21卷 143-152页

作者：邹燕赵平林秋 fujian Climate Centre State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences fujian meteorological bureau

Based on the 1961-2010 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, this work uses empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and composite analysis to study the distributions of zonal land-sea thermal contrast between Asia and the Pacific during transitions from the summer monsoon to the winter monsoon in East Asian subtropics, and investigates the interannual variations of the thermal contrast and their relationships with circulation systems over the East Asian subtropics. The findings are as follows. 1) In autumn, the interannual variations of the temperature deviation in the middle and upper troposphere show significant east-west out-of-phase teleconnection over Asia and the central and eastern Pacific, i.e. the Asian-Pacific Oscillation, or APO. 2) While not as significant as in summer with regard to coverage and intensity, the APO shows interannual variations in autumn that well depicts the change in the intensity of the subtropical monsoon. In the high(low) APO year, the current subtropical summer monsoon is strong(weak) and the winter monsoon is weak(strong) in East Asia as derived from the general circulation and wind field of the East Asian-Pacific region.

关键词： Asian-Pacific Oscillation autumn East Asia Monsoon

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Serum ceruloplasmin can predict liver fibrosis in hepatitis B virusinfected patients

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2020年第27期26卷 3952-3962页

作者： Na-Ling Kang Jie-Min Zhang Meng-Xin Lin Xu-Dong Chen Zu-Xiong Huang Yue-Yong Zhu Yu-Rui Liu Da-Wu Zeng Liver Center The First Affiliated HospitalFujian Medical UniversityFuzhou 350005Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Pharmacy The First Affiliated HospitalFujian Medical UniversityFuzhou 350005Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Infectious Diseases The First Hospital of Quanzhou Affiliated with Fujian Medical UniversityQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Gastroenterology the 910th Hospital of the People's Liberation ArmyQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina Hepatology Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityFuzhou 350005Fujian ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND The presence of significant liver fibrosis in hepatitis B virus(HBV)-infected individuals with persistently normal serum alanine aminotransferase(PNALT)levels is a strong indicator for initiating antiviral *** ceruloplasmin(CP)is negatively correlated with liver fibrosis in HBV-infected *** To examine the potential value of serum CP and develop a noninvasive index including CP to assess significant fibrosis among HBV-infected individuals with *** Two hundred and seventy-five HBV-infected individuals with PNALT were retrospectively *** association between CP and fibrotic stages was statistically analyzed.A predictive index including CP[Ceruloplasmin hepatitis B virus(CPHBV)]was constructed to predict significant fibrosis and compared to previously reported *** Serum CP had an inverse correlation with liver fibrosis(r=-0.600).Using CP,the areas under the curves(AUCs)to predict significant fibrosis,advanced fibrosis,and cirrhosis were 0.774,0.812,and 0.853,*** CPHBV model was developed using CP,platelets(PLT),and HBsAg levels to predict significant *** AUCs of this model to predict significant fibrosis,advanced fibrosis,and cirrhosis were 0.842,0.920,and 0.904,*** was superior to previous models like the aspartate aminotransferase(AST)-to-PLT ratio index,Fibrosis-4 score,gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-PLT ratio,Forn’s score,and S-index in predicting significant fibrosis in HBV-infected individuals with *** CPHBV could accurately predict liver fibrosis in HBV-infected individuals with ***,CPHBV can be a valuable tool for antiviral treatment decisions.

关键词： Ceruloplasmin Liver fibrosis Chronic hepatitis B infection Serum alanine aminotransferase Noninvasive model Receiver-operating characteristic

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STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE FROM GMS-5 INFRARED CLOUD IMAGERY AND SURFACE RAIN RATES DURING THE RAINING SEASONS OF fujian province

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2003年第1期9卷 74-79页

作者：林长城张长安林忠敏林祥明谢怡芳郑淑贞 meteorological Research Institute of fujian province fujian meteorological Observatory fujian meteorological bureau

The GMS-5 infrared cloud imagery for two yearly first raining seasons in 1998 and 1999 are used to study the relationship between brightness temperature and surface rain rates. The result shows that it is likely to have large probability of heavy precipitation with the decrease of brightness temperature and the gradual increase of rainfall intensity; for areas of low temperature, the brightness temperature is better determined for atmosphere above rain gauge stations with multiple points sampling than with single point one; for the yearly first raining season, the threshold brightness temperature is set at 4.6℃ for indication of heavy precipitation in the fujian area.

关键词： yearly first raining seasons GMS-5 cloud top temperature rainfall intensity

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Postoperative adverse cardiac events in acute myocardial infarction with high thrombus load and best time for stent implantation

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2022年第7期10卷 2106-2114页

作者： Ming-Feng Zhuo Ke-Lian Zhang Xue-Bin Shen Wen-Can Lin Bin Hu Hua-Peng Cai Gang Huang Department of Emergency Shishi General HospitalShishi 362700Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Cardiovascular Quanzhou First HospitalQuanzhou 362000Fujian ProvinceChina Department of Cardiology Affiliated Nanping First HospitalFujian Medical UniversityNanping 353000Fujian ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Myocardial infarction is one of the most common types of coronary heart *** is mainly caused by the rupture of coronary atherosclerotic plaque,which leads to platelet agglutination and *** occlusion of coronary arteries and vessels leads to insufficient myocardial blood supply,subsequently causing cardiac interstitial fibrosis,gradual enlargement of ventricles,and heart failure,which affects the quality of life and safety of *** To investigate the effects of emergency percutaneous interventional therapy(PCI)and delayed stenting in acute myocardial infarction with high thrombotic load and identify factors related to major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE).METHODS A total of 164 patients with acute myocardial infarction and high thrombotic load who received PCI were *** them,92 patients were treated with delayed stent implantation(delayed group)and 72 patients received emergency PCI(immediate group).Myocardial perfusion after stent implantation was compared between the two *** were followed up for 12 mo,and the occurrence of MACE was used as the *** and multivariate models were used to analyze the factors affecting MACE *** After stent implantation,66(71.74%)patients in the delayed group and 40(55.56%)patients in the immediate group had thrombolysis in myocardial infarction(TIMI)flow grade 3(P0.05).MACE occurred in 29 *** were statistically significant differences between the MACE and non-MACE groups in diabetes rate,TIMI grading,stent implantation timing,intraoperative use of tirofiban,and the levels of white blood cells(WBC),neutrophils,red blood cell distribution width(RDW),and uric acid,and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein(hs-CRP)at admission(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that TIMI grade 3 and intraoperativ

关键词： Coronary thrombosis Myocardial infarction Emergency Percutaneous coronary intervention Treatment delay Adverse cardiovascular events

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