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Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第5期25卷 867-884页

作者：祝从文 Chung-Kyu PARK Woo-Sung LEE Won-Tae YUN Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Asia-Pacific economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) Busan Republic of Korea Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and Reanalysis Victoria BC Canada Korea Meteorological Administration Seoul Republic of Korea

The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia

关键词： summer monsoon precipitation multi-model ensemble prediction statistical downscaling forecast

Geological, Engineering Geological and Hydrogeological Characteristics of the Knowledge economic City, Al Madinah Al Munawwarah, KSA

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Geomaterials 2025年第1期15卷 40-55页

作者： Mutasim A. M. Ez Eldin Tareq Saeid Al Zahrani Gabel Zamil Al-Barakati Ibrahim Mohamed AlHarthi Marwan Mohamed Al Saikhan Waleed Abdel Aziz Al Aklouk Waheed Mohamed Saeid Ba Amer programme of Engineering Geology Center of Applied Geology Saudi Geological Survey Jeddah Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Department of Engineering Geology College of Petroleum Geology and Minerals University of Bahri Khartoum Sudan Zamzam Studies and Research Center Saudi Geological Survey Jeddah Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Knowledge economic City (KEC) of Al Madinah Al Munawwarah is one of the major projects and represents the cornerstone for the new development activities for Al Madinah. The study area contains different geological units dominated by basalt and overlain by surface deposits. The surface soils vary in thickness and can be classified into well-graded SAND with silt and gravel (SW-SM), silty SAND with gravel (SM), silty GRAVEL with sand (GM), and sandy SILTY clay (CL-ML). The subsurface soil obtained from the drilled boreholes can be classified into poorly graded GRAVEL (GP), well-graded GRAVEL with sand (GW), poorly graded GRAVEL with silt (GP-GM), silty CLAYEY gravel with sand (GC-GM), silty SAND with gravel (SM), silt with SAND (ML), and silty CLAY with sand (CL-ML), sandy lean CLAY (CL), and lean CLAY (CL). The relative density of the deposit and the different gravel sizes intercalated with the soil influenced the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) values. The SPT N values are high and approach refusal even at shallow depths. The shallow refusal depth (0.10 to 0.90 m) of the Dynamic Cone Penetration Test (DCPT) was observed. Generally, the soil can be described as inactive with low plasticity and dense to very dense consistency. The basalt of the KEC site is characterized by slightly (W2) to highly (W4) weathering, their strength ranges from moderate (S4) to very strong (S2), and the Rock Quality Designation (RQD) ranges from very poor (R5) to excellent (R1). The engineering geological map of the KEC characterized the geoengineering properties of the soil and rock materials and classified them into many zones. The high sulphate (SO42−) and chloride (Cl−) contents in groundwater call for protective measures for foundation concrete. The current study revealed that geohazard(s) mitigation measures concerning floods, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes should be considered.

关键词： Engineering Geology Knowledge economic City Petrographic Description Rock and Soil Investigations

Chronic disease patients have fewer social contacts:A pilot survey with implications for transmission dynamics

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Infectious Disease modelling 2024年第3期9卷 926-930页

作者： J.Vanderlocht S.Møgelmose K.Van Kerckhove P.Beutels N.Hens Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Data Science InstituteHasselt UniversityHasseltBelgium Centre for Health economic Research and modelling Infectious Diseases University of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium

Non-communicable diseases(NCD)are the most important cause of death in the *** socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st *** severe toll that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken worldwide is an unfortunate illustration of our limited insight into the infectious risk for the global ***-incidence between NCD and infection offers an underexplored opportunity to design preventive *** a pilot survey,we observed that the NCD population displays a substantial reduction in their social contacting behavior as compared to the general *** indicates that existing mathematical models based on contact surveys in the general population are not applicable to the NCD population and that the risk of acquiring an infection following a contact is probably *** demonstration of reduced social mixing in several chronic conditions,raises the question to what extent the social mixing is influenced by the burden of *** advocate the design of disease-specific contact surveys to address how the burden of disease associates with social contact behavior and the risk of *** SARS-CoV-2 pandemic offers an unprecedented opportunity to gain insight into the importance of infection in the NCD population and to find ways to improve healthcare procedures.

关键词： survey mixing insight

Defining 'science-based targets'

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National Science Review 2021年第7期8卷 17-20页

作者： Inger Andersen Naoko Ishii Thomas Brooks Cynthia Cummis Gustavo Fonseca Astrid Hillers Nicholas Macfarlane Nebojsa Nakicenovic Kevin Moss Johan Rockstr?m rew Steer Dominic Waughray Caroline Zimm United Nations Environment programme Global Environment Facility International Union for Conservation of Nature World Resources Institute International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Conservation International Stockholm Resilience Centre World economic Forum Centre for Global Public Goods

The 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2?C above pre-industrial levels and aim towards limiting warming to 1.5?C marked a watershed in planetary governance, for two reasons. First, of course, it se...

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Relationship between Concentration and Location of theHerbal Industry

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2019年第5期8卷 186-189页

作者： Rohana Abd Rahman Ariff Fahmi Abu Bakar economic and Strategic Analysis programme Forest Research Institute MalaysiaKepong Selangor 52109Malaysia

Malaysia aspires to become developed and high income nation by year 2020. Under the Tenth Malaysia Plan, herbal industry was the first Entry Point Project for Agricultural National Key economic Area in economic Transformation programme. To understand the current status of the herbal industry, FRIM (Forest Research Institute Malaysia) conducted the survey on 6,923 herbal chain players, consisted from upstream to downstream activities. A face-to-face interview was conducted using a structured questionnaire to gather the information. This paper highlighted the relationship between concentration of the herbal industry and urbanization’s status of the areas. The finding shows that a statistically significant difference exists between category of herbal activities and status of the areas. The upstream activities are more concentrated in rural areas, while most of downstream activities in urban areas. It is in line with central place of theory on how settlements and places are located in relation to one another and their functions. Therefore, to further develop the herbal industry, the government should consider strategic location by category of industrial activities in policies planning, programmes implementation and providing infrastructural support needed by the industry.

关键词： Upstream downstream herbal industry industrial location central place theory

Construction of an Open Innovation Network and Its Mechanism Design for Manufacturing Enterprises： A Resource-Based Perspective

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Frontiers of Business Research in China 2017年第1期11卷 138-166页

作者： Haijun Wang Sardar M. N. Islam Scllool of Management Shenyang University of Technology Shenyang 110870 China Decision Sciences and modelling Program Victoria University Melbourne VIC 8001 Australia Victoria Institute of Strategic economic Studies (VISES) Victoria University Melbourne VIC 8001 Australia

Innovation is the engine of development for enterprises, and there is an increasing trend to adopt an open innovation strategy. However, how to manage external resources in an open, collaborative and complementary manner, and in a shared environment that will yield the greatest networking effects, it is a challenging task. Because there is no such a satisfactory model for an open innovation strategy that combine operational mechanisms with the management of external resources. This article tries to fill the gap by adopting a resource-based perspective to construct an overall open innovation （OOI） business model. In this model, external resources are classified as industrial and non-industrial entities, to enable the identification of the interaction methods between manufacturing enterprises and external resources. The management of external resources involved in a Technology Open Innovation （TOI） cycle is given particular attention that includes： 1） the classification of the external resources of a TOI, 2） the general mechanisms extracted to promote qualified resources in and unqualified resources out, and 3） a business model to conceptualize the collaboration between enterprises and external resources. A case study of TOI is also provided to empirically verify its feasibility. This paper contributes to the literature by providing an original operational model and mechanism design for an open innovation strategy that is capable of managing external resources effectively.

关键词： manufacturing enterprise open innovation resource dependence external resources mechanism

Research on the Development Strategy of the Small and Medium-sized Agricultural Enterprises

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Journal of Zhouyi Research 2014年第4期 38-40页

作者： Huang Bing Zhang Rongdong Beijing Jiaotong University Postdoctoral programme of China Industrial economic Security Research Center Beijing China 100083 Beijing Jiaotong University Postdoctoral programme of China Industrial economic Security Research Center (Beijing Printing College Culture Industry Research Institute) Beijing China 100083

The slippery slope framework:A comprehensive evaluation of factors affecting trust and power

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economic and Political Studies 2023年第3期11卷 382-399页

作者： Mardhiah Mardhiah Riyana Miranti Robert Tanton Directorate General of Taxes Ministry of Finance of the Republic of IndonesiaJakartaIndonesia bCanberra School of Politics Economics and SocietyFaculty of BusinessGovernment and LawUniversity of CanberraCanberraAustralia National Centre for Social and economic modelling Faculty of BusinessGovernment and LawUniversity of CanberraCanberraAustralia

Many empirical studies have been conducted to test the assumptions of the slippery slope framework(SSF).However,although the SSF theory has introduced several tax compliance factors that are believed to have associations with trust in tax authorities and power of tax authorities,most studies tend to include only the two main domains of trust and power in the *** of these studies comprehensively investigates the ***,this study is dedicated to fully elaborating on these factors and their correlations with the two main domains of trust and power separately and *** results show that most factors are proven to significantly influence trust and *** penalties,norms,distributive fairness and retributive fairness significantly and positively influence trust,while audit probabilities,tax penalties,attitudes,norms and retributive fairness have significant and positive correlations with *** results also confirm the main SSF assumptions that trust leads to voluntary compliance,while voluntary compliance positively affects overall tax ***,this study fails to demonstrate the relationship of power with enforced compliance,while enforced compliance is found to negatively affect overall tax compliance.

关键词： Trust power voluntary compliance enforced compliance

Bioplastic classifications and innovations in antibacterial,antifungal,and antioxidant applications

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Journal of Bioresources and Bioproducts 2023年第4期8卷 361-387页

作者： Sariah Abang Farrah Wong Rosalam Sarbatly Jamilah Sariau Rubiyah Baini Normah Awang Besar Department of Chemical Engineering and Energy Sustainability Faculty of EngineeringUniversiti Malaysia SarawakKota Samarahan 94300Malaysia Electronic Engineering(Computer)programme Faculty of EngineeringUniversiti Malaysia SabahKota Kinabalu 88400Malaysia Chemical Engineering programme Faculty of EngineeringUniversiti Malaysia SabahKota Kinabalu 88400Malaysia Forest Plantation and Agroforestry programme Faculty of Tropical ForestryUniversiti Malaysia SabahKota Kinabalu 88400Malaysia

Conventional plastics exacerbate climate change by generating substantial amounts of greenhouse gases and solid wastes throughout their *** address the environmental and economic challenges associated with petroleum-based plastics,bioplastics have emerged as a viable *** are a type of plastic that are either biobased,biodegradable,or *** to their biodegradability and renewability,bioplastics are established as earth-friendly materials that can replace nonrenewable ***,early bioplastic development has been hindered by higher production costs and inferior mechanical and barrier properties compared to conventional ***,studies have shown that the addition of additives and fillers can enhance bioplastic *** advancements in bioplastics have incorporated special additives like antibacterial,antifungal,and antioxidant agents,offering added values and unique properties for specific applications in various *** instance,integrating antibacterial additives into bioplastics enables the creation of active food packaging,extending the shelf-life of food by inhibiting spoilage-causing bacteria and ***,bioplastics with antioxidant additives can be applied in wound dressings,accelerating wound healing by preventing oxidative damage to cells and *** innovative bioplastic developments offer promising opportunities for developing sustainable and practical solutions in various *** this review are two main focuses:an outline of the bioplastic classifications to understand how they fit in as the coveted conventional plastics substitute and an overview of the recent bioplastic innovations in the antibacterial,antifungal,and antioxidant *** cover the use of different polymers and additives,presenting the findings and potential applications within the last *** current research primarily focuses on food packaging and biomedicine,the exploration

关键词： Bioplastic Biopolymer Biodegradability Antibacterial Antifungal Antioxidant