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Rising Inequality in China and the Move to a Balanced Economy

China & World Economy 2012年第1期20卷 83-104页

作者： Cuiping Zhu Guanghua Wan Yunnan University of Finance and Economics principal economist Asian Development BankManilathe Philippines.

China faces serious external （i.e. trade） and internal （i.e. structural） imbalances. Both are related to income inequality, reduction of which will help to increase domestic dematut. This paper discusses how income inequality has evolved over time. This is followed by an exploration of the consequences of high inequality. Driving forces underlying the rising inequality are analyzed before providing concrete policy recommendations. It is found that inequality declined in the early period of reform, until the mid to late 1980s, and then began a rising trend up to 2010. Major determinants of inequality include： location, institutional and policy factors, trade and globalization, and education inequality and human capital gaps along rural-urban and spatial divisions. To achieve a balanced economy and a harmonious society, development policies in China must shift from emphasizing growth to prioritizing equality. In addition, government interventions can target rural-urban disparity through rapid urbanization, and tackle regional inequality by developing financlal markets, ensuring progressive allocation of fiscal resources, promoting trade and foreign direct investment in inland China, creating more formal jobs and supporting the service sector.

关键词： deveolpment policy Gini index income inequality urbanization

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Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China's Inflation:An Empirical Investigation

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China & World Economy 2008年第6期16卷 22-34页

作者： Ligang Liu Andrew Tsang Chief economist for China Research Department Bank Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria （BBVA）Hong Kong Branch principal economist Research DepartmentBBVA Hong Kong Branch

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.

关键词： China commodity price exchange rate pass-through

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Effects of China＇s Structural Change on the Exports of East Asian Economies

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China & World Economy 2017年第3期25卷 1-30页

作者： Hyun-Hoon Lee Donghyun Park Kwanho Shin Professor International Trade and Business Kangwon National UniversityKorea principal economist Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department Asian Development Bank. Professor Economics Department Korea University

The Chinese economy is slowing down and is in the midst of a structural transJormattonfrom export-led and investment-led growth to domestic demand-led and consumption-ledgrowth. While there are widespread concerns among China＇s trading partners about theeffect of the slowdown in China＇s growth on their exports, China＇s structural changes arealso likely to have a significant impact：for example, China will import fewer machinesand more cosmetics. The central objective of the present paper is to empirically examinethe effect of China＇s structural transformation on the exports of East Asian economies,which have close trade linkages with China. We find that economies that have failed toincrease the share of consumption goods in their exports to China have suffered largerdeclines in their quantities of exports to China. In addition, economies that have sufferedlosses in their shares of China＇s parts and components imports have faced reductions intheir shares in China ＂s total imports.

关键词： China, East Asia, export, global value chain, structural change

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A New Model to Evaluate the Economic Effects of Floods and Its Application to China

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Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 2016年第4期9卷 627-641页

作者： Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrad Ibrahim Ndoma Donghyun Park Faculty of Economics and Administration (FEA) University of Malaya 50603 Kuala LumpurMalaysia principal economist Asian Development Bank (ADB) 6 ADB Avenue1550 Mandaluyong City Metro Manila Philippines

We set forth the macroeconomics evaluation of floods (MEF) model, a new model to assess and evaluate the impact of floods on GNP growth. This model points to a new, more concrete approach to measure the economic impact of floods. Up to now, the measurement has been subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The main contribution of the model is to significantly reduce this uncertainty by measuring the impact with four well-defined, economically intuitive indicators. To illuminate and demonstrate its promise, we employ the model to evaluate and analyze the impact of two major floods on the economy of the People’s Republic of China. Our MEF-model analysis indicates that the floods of Zhangshu and Jiangxi in 2010 caused greater economic damage than the floods of Central South China in 1931. Going forward, MEF-model simulations are a valuable tool for estimating the effect of potential future floods in the PRC and elsewhere.

关键词：洪水影响中国经济中华人民共和国模型分析应用国民生产总值宏观评价不确定性

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