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A New Method to Identify the Maximum Time Interval between Individual Events in Compound Rainstorm and Heatwave Events

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2024年第3期15卷 453-466页

作者： Junlin Zhang Wei Xu Yu Qiao Xinli Liao Chenna Meng Qinmei Han Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural disaster of ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Academy of disaster Reduction and emergency management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Growing evidence indicates that extreme heat and rain may occur in succession within short time periods and cause greater impacts than individual events separated in time and space. Therefore, many studies have examined the impacts of compound hazard events on the social-ecological system at various scales. The definition of compound events is fundamental for such research. However, there are no existing studies that support the determination of time interval between individual events of a compound rainstorm and heatwave(CRH) event, which consists of two or more potentially qualifying component heatwave and rainstorm events. To address the deficiency in defining what individual events can constitute a CRH event, this study proposed a novel method to determine the maximum time interval for CRH events through the change in CRH event frequency with increasing time interval between individual events, using southern China as a case study. The results show that the threshold identified by the proposed method is reasonable. For more than 90% of the meteorological stations, the frequency of CRH events has reached a maximum when the time interval is less than or equal to the threshold. This study can aid in time interval selection, which is an important step for subsequent study of CRH events.

关键词： Compound extreme weather event Rainstorm and heatwave Southern China Threshold Time interval

Seismic performance evaluation of water supply pipes installed in a full-scale RC frame structure based on a shaking table test

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2024年第1期23卷 163-178页

作者： Wu Houli Guo Endong Wang Jingyi Dai Xin Dai Chenxi Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Institute of Engineering MechanicsChina Earthquake AdministrationHarbin 150080China Key Laboratory of Earthquake disaster Mitigation Ministry of Emergency ManagementHarbin 150080China

As an important part of nonstructural components,the seismic response of indoor water supply pipes deserves much *** paper presents shaking table test research on water supply pipes installed in a full-scale reinforced concrete(RC)frame *** material pipes and different methods for penetrating the reinforced concrete floors are combined to evaluate the difference in seismic *** response spectra and pipe acceleration amplification factors based on test data are discussed and compared with code provisions.A seismic fragility study of displacement demand is conducted based on numerical *** acceleration response and displacement response of different combinations are *** results show that the combination of different pipe materials and different passing-through methods can cause obvious differences in the seismic response of indoor riser pipes.

关键词： water supply pipe different materials shaking table test amplification factor seismic fragility

Automated machine learning for rainfall-induced landslide hazard mapping in Luhe County of Guangdong Province,China

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China Geology 2024年第2期7卷 315-329页

作者： Tao Li Chen-chen Xie Chong Xu Wen-wen Qi Yuan-dong Huang Lei Li National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Institute of disaster Prevention Sanhe 065201China School of emergency management Science and Engineering University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Landslide hazard mapping is essential for regional landslide hazard *** main objective of this study is to construct a rainfall-induced landslide hazard map of Luhe County,China based on an automated machine learning framework(AutoGluon).A total of 2241 landslides were identified from satellite images before and after the rainfall event,and 10 impact factors including elevation,slope,aspect,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),topographic wetness index(TWI),lithology,land cover,distance to roads,distance to rivers,and rainfall were selected as *** WeightedEnsemble model,which is an ensemble of 13 basic machine learning models weighted together,was used to output the landslide hazard assessment *** results indicate that landslides mainly occurred in the central part of the study area,especially in Hetian and *** 102.44 s were spent to train all the models,and the ensemble model WeightedEnsemble has an Area Under the Curve(AUC)value of92.36%in the test *** addition,14.95%of the study area was determined to be at very high hazard,with a landslide density of 12.02 per square *** study serves as a significant reference for the prevention and mitigation of geological hazards and land use planning in Luhe County.

关键词： Landslide hazard Heavy rainfall Harzard mapping Hazard assessment Automated machine learning Shallow landslide Visual interpretation Luhe County Geological hazards survey engineering

Numerical Simulation of the Seismic Response of a Horizontal Storage Tank Based on a SPH-FEM Coupling Method

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2024年第5期139卷 1655-1678页

作者： Peilei Yan Endong Guo HouliWu Liangchao Zhang Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Institute of Engineering MechanicsChina Earthquake AdministrationHarbin150080China Key Laboratory of Earthquake disaster Mitigation Ministry of Emergency ManagementHarbin150080China

A coupled numerical calculation method combining smooth particle hydrodynamics(SPH)and the finite element method(FEM)was implemented to investigate the seismic response of horizontal storage *** of a horizontal storage tank featuring a free liquid surface under seismic action was constructed using the SPH–FEM coupling *** stored liquid was discretized using SPH particles,while the tank and supports were discretized using the *** interaction between the stored liquid and the tank was simulated by using the meshless particle contact ***,the numerical simulation results were compared and analyzed against seismic simulation shaking table test data to validate the ***,a series of numerical models,considering different liquid storage volumes and seismic effects,were constructed to obtain time history data of base shear and top center displacement,which revealed the seismic performance of horizontal storage *** simulation results and experimental data showed good agreement,with an error rate of less than 18.85%.And this conformity signifies the rationality of the SPH-FEM coupling *** base shear and top center displacement values obtained by the coupled SPH-FEM method were only 53.3% to 69.1% of those calculated by the equivalent mass method employed in the current *** the stored liquid volume increased,the seismic response of the horizontal storage tank exhibited a gradual upward trend,with the seismic response increasing from 73% to 388% for every 35% increase in stored liquid *** maximum von Mises stress of the tank and the supports remained below the steel yield strength during the *** coupled SPH-FEM method holds certain advantages in studying the seismic problems of tanks with complex structural forms,particularly due to the representation of the flow field distribution during earthquakes by involving reservoir fluid participation.

关键词： SPH-FEM coupling method horizontal storage tank seismic response sloshing

Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1751-1768页

作者： Li MA Zhigang WEI Xianru LI Shuting WU Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural disasters of Chinese ministry of Education Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE) Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of disaster Reduction and emergency management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic *** report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after *** highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 *** frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing ***,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in *** circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into *** addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian *** terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 *** to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.

关键词： cold surge “highest-ranked”model ensemble anticyclonic circulation geopotential height China

Evolution of tribo-magnetization during sliding of ferromagnetic materials

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Friction 2024年第5期12卷 906-918页

作者： Fumin GAO Laibin ZHANG Jin ZHOU Yi XIONG Jing WU Jianchun FAN China University of Petroleum-Beijing Beijing102249China Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Safety and emergency Technology Ministry of Emergency ManagementBeijing102249China

Sliding-induced subsurface microstructure evolution is believed to be decisive for determining the friction and wear performance of metallic contacts as well as the development of *** expects to develop a new prediction method of wear state by elucidating the correlation between subsurface microstructure evolution and corresponding magnetic domain ***,subsurface microstructure evolution including crystal and magnetic domain under tribological action is investigated *** results demonstrate that dislocation mediated plastic deformation decisively influences microstructural changes during tribological contact,further determining the magnetic domain ***,sliding-induced plastic deformation causes an increase in the width of magnetic domains,but depth-dependent derived microstructure formed under severe plastic deformation such as the refined grains and sub-grains,in turn,promoted the refinement of magnetic domains and their discontinuity,forming depth-dependent magnetic domain *** results are helpful to clarify the evolution of tribo-magnetization and the pinning effect of dislocations on magnetic domains.

关键词： tribology magnetic domain microstructure tribo-magnetization dislocations

Seismic Risk Model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China:Considering Epistemic Uncertainty from the Seismic Hazard Models

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2024年第3期15卷 434-452页

作者： Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Kai Liu Silva Vitor Anirudh Rao Ming Wang Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Institute of Engineering MechanicsChina Earthquake Administration Key Laboratory of Earthquake disaster Mitigation Ministry of Emergency Management School of National Safety and emergency management Beijing Normal University Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Urban disasters Digital Twin Department of Earth Sciences Western University Global Earthquake Model Foundation

This study presents a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China. The model comprises a township-level residential building exposure model, a vulnerability model derived from the Chinese building taxonomy,and a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model. The three components are integrated by a stochastic event-based method of the OpenQuake engine to assess the regional seismic risk in terms of average annual loss and exceedance probability curve at the city, province, and regional levels. The novelty and uniqueness of this study are that a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China is developed by considering the impact of site conditions and epistemic uncertainty from the seismic hazard model.

关键词： Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region Epistemic uncertainty Seismic risk assessment Seismic risk model

Preliminary geological interpretation of long-wavelength magnetic anomalies over China and surrounding regions

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第3期8卷 445-458页

作者： Jie Wang YanYan Yang ZhiMa Zeren Jian Wang Xin Wang YuXin Luo XuHui Shen National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China School of emergency management Science and Engineering University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China National Space Science Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Long-wavelength(>500 km)magnetic anomalies originating in the lithosphere were first found in satellite magnetic *** to the striking magnetic anomalies around the world,the long-wavelength magnetic anomalies in China and surrounding regions are relatively *** research on each of these anomalies has been quite inadequate;their geological origins remain unclear,in particular their connection to tectonic activity in the Chinese and surrounding *** focus on six magnetic high anomalies over the(1)Tarim Basin,(2)Sichuan Basin(3)Great Xing’an Range,(4)Barmer Basin,(5)Central Myanmar Basin,and(6)Sunda and Banda Arcs,and a striking magnetic low anomaly along the southern part of the Himalayan-Tibetan *** have analyzed their geological origins by reviewing related research and by detailed comparison with geological *** tectonic backgrounds for these anomalies belong to two cases:either ancient basin basement,or subduction-collision ***,the geological origins of large-scale regional magnetic anomalies are always subject to dispute,mainly because of limited surface exposure of sources,later tectonic destruction,and superposition of multi-phase events.

关键词： long-wavelength magnetic anomaly lithospheric magnetic anomaly lithospheric magnetic field model satellite magnetic survey CSES

Landslide Research from the Perspectives of Qinling Mountains in China: A Critical Review

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年第5期35卷 1546-1567页

作者： Liye Feng Wenwen Qi Chong Xu Wentao Yang Zhiqiang Yang Zikang Xiao Zhaoning Chen Tao Li Xiaoyi Shao Huiran Gao Zhiwen Xue National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China School of Soil and Water Conservation Beijing Forestry University Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of China School of emergency management Science and Engineering University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Landslides pose a frequent geological threat, endangering both productivity and the wellbeing of human life and property. In recent years, landslides have received widespread attention in various fields. This article presents a comprehensive review of landslide research in the Qinling Mountains, China. The first part introduces landslide investigation and inventory, which include manual visual interpretation and automatic landslide extraction. The second part discusses the types, characteristics, and temporal-spatial distribution of landslides in the Qinling Mountains. In the third part, the mechanisms and stability analysis of landslides are explored, along with a discussion of the applicability of various simulation methods. The fourth part focuses on significant studies related to landslide evaluation, including susceptibility, hazard, and risk assessment. The fifth part addresses landslide monitoring and early warning systems. Finally, an assessment is made of the current issues and research status concerning landslide studies in the Qinling Mountains, followed by a discussion on future research directions.

关键词： Qinling Mountains landslide review engineering geology

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