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ResoNet:Robust and Explainable ENSO Forecasts with Hybrid Convolution and Transformer Networks

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1289-1298页

作者： Pumeng LYU Tao TANG Fenghua LING Jing-Jia LUO Niklas BOERS Wanli OUYANG Lei BAI Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Shanghai 200072China Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310002China institute for climate and Application research(ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Technical University of Munich Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdam 14473Germany

Recent studies have shown that deep learning(DL)models can skillfully forecast El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events more than 1.5 years in advance.However,concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,including potential overfitting issues and lack of interpretability.Here,we propose ResoNet,a DL model that combines CNN(convolutional neural network)and transformer architectures.This hybrid architecture enables our model to adequately capture local sea surface temperature anomalies as well as long-range inter-basin interactions across oceans.We show that ResoNet can robustly predict ENSO at lead times of 19 months,thus outperforming existing approaches in terms of the forecast horizon.According to an explainability method applied to ResoNet predictions of El Niño and La Niña from 1-to 18-month leads,we find that it predicts the Niño-3.4 index based on multiple physically reasonable mechanisms,such as the recharge oscillator concept,seasonal footprint mechanism,and Indian Ocean capacitor effect.Moreover,we demonstrate for the first time that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña development can be captured by ResoNet.Our results could help to alleviate skepticism about applying DL models for ENSO prediction and encourage more attempts to discover and predict climate phenomena using AI methods.

关键词： deep learning ENSO CNN transformer

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Linkage Between European and East Asian Heatwaves on Synoptic Scales

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 97-105页

作者：蔡奋颖刘彩红杨崧邓开强 KURTHS Jürgen School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Department of Complexity Science Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK)Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdam 14473 Germany Department of Water and climate Risk Institute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdam 1087HV Netherlands Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Department of Physics Humboldt-Universität zu BerlinBerlin 12489 Germany

Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for societies.By using network analysis,the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurrences of heatwaves between the grid cells in East Asia and Eastern Europe,even though they are geographically far away from each other.By further composite analysis,this study revealed that hot events first occurred in Eastern Europe,typically with a time lag of3-4 days before the East Asian heatwave events.An eastward propagating atmospheric wave train,known as the circumglobal teleconnection(CGT)pattern,bridged the sequent occurrences of extreme events in these two remote regions.Atmospheric blockings,amplified by surface warming over Eastern Europe,not only enhanced local heat extremes but also excited a CGT-like pattern characterized by alternative anomalies of high and low pressures.Subsequent downstream anticyclones in the middle and upper troposphere reduced local cloud cover and increased downward solar radiation,thereby facilitating the formation of heatwaves over East Asia.Nearly half of East Asian heatwave events were preceded by Eastern European heatwave events in the 10-day time range before East Asian heatwave events.This investigation of heatwave teleconnection in the two distant regions exhibits strong potential to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian heatwaves.

关键词： concurrent heatwaves Eastern Europe East Asia circum-global teleconnection pattern

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Overlooked uneven progress across sustainable development goals at the global scale: Challenges and opportunities

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The Innovation 2024年第2期5卷 42-50页

作者： Yali Liu Jianqing Du Yanfen Wang Xiaoyong Cui Jichang Dong Pan Gu Yanbin Hao Kai Xue Hongbo Duan Anquan Xia Yi Hu Zhi Dong Bingfang Wu Jüurgen P.Kropp Bojie Fu School of Grassland Science Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083China Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National research Station University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Life Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Humanities University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota Northwest Institute of Plateau BiologyChinese Academy of SciencesXining 810001China School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China potsdam institute for climate impact research 14412 PotsdamGermany institute for Environmental Science and Geography University of Potsdam14412 PotsdamGermany State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China

Differences in progress across sustainable development goals(SDGs)are widespread globally;meanwhile,the rising call for prioritizing specific SDGs may exacerbate such gaps.Nevertheless,how these progress differences would influence global sustainable development has been long neglected.Here,we present the first quantitative assessment of SDGs’progress differences globally by adopting the SDGs progress evenness index.Our results highlight that the uneven progress across SDGs has been a hindrance to sustainable development because(1)it is strongly associated with many public health risks(e.g.,air pollution),social inequalities(e.g.,gender inequality,modern slavery,wealth gap),and a reduction in life expectancy;(2)it is also associated with deforestation and habitat loss in terrestrial and marine ecosystems,increasing the challenges related to biodiversity conservation;(3)most countries with low average SDGs performance show lower progress evenness,which further hinders their fulfillment of SDGs;and(4)many countries with high average SDGs performance also showcase stagnation or even retrogression in progress evenness,which is partly ascribed to the antagonism between climate actions and other goals.These findings highlight that while setting SDGs priorities may be more realistic under the constraints of multiple global stressors,caution must be exercised to avoid new problems from intensifying uneven progress across goals.Moreover,our study reveals that the urgent needs regarding SDGs of different regions seem complementary,emphasizing that regional collaborations(e.g.,demand-oriented carbon trading between SDGs poorly performed and well-performed countries)may promote sustainable development achievements at the global scale.

关键词： globally priori inequality

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Correcting climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:Climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1299-1312页

作者： Ya WANG Gang HUANG Baoxiang PAN Pengfei LIN Niklas BOERS Weichen TAO Yutong CHEN BO LIU Haijie LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and DesignTechnical University of MunichOttobrunn 85521Germany potsdam institute for climate impact research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Mathematics and Global Systems institute University of ExeterExeter EX44QEUK CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts.However,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future projections.Addressing these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning methods.Here,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST extremes.Notably,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to rectify.Additionally,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to 0.32.This enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales variabilities.Our study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

关键词： generative adversarial networks model bias deep learning El Niño-Southern Oscillation marine heatwaves

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation planning.Previous related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate models.Here,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation effects.Two experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of irrigation.Results showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil moisture.Moreover,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation schemes.Winter wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum temperature.Additionally,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the atmosphere.Further analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and agriculture.Fortunately,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated region.Additionally,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity,which might be an undereastimation caused by th

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Aerosol deposition technology and its applications in batteries

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Nano Materials Science 2024年第1期6卷 24-37页

作者： Xinyu Wang Ramon Alberto Paredes Camacho Xiaoyu Xu Yumei Wang Yi Qiang Hans Kungl Ruediger-AEichel Yunfeng Zhang Li Lu National University of Singapore(Chongqing)research institute Chongqing401123PR China National University of Singapore Singapore117576 Fundamental Electrochemistry(IEK-9) Institute of Energy and Climate ResearchForschungszentrum Jülich52425JülichGermany

Aerosol deposition(AD)method is a kind of additive manufacturing technology for fabricating dense films such as metals and ceramics at room temperature.It resolves the challenge of integrating ceramic films onto temperaturesensitive substrates,including metals,glasses,and polymers.It should be emphasized that the AD is a spray coating technology that uses powder without thermal assistance to generate films with high density.Compared to the traditional sputter-based approach,the AD shows several advantages in efficiency,convenience,better interfacial bonding and so on.Therefore,it opens some possibilities to the field of batteries,especially all-solidstate batteries(ASSBs)and draws much attention not only for research but also for large scale applications.The purpose of this work is to provide a critical review on the science and technology of AD as well as its applications in the field of batteries.The process,mechanism and effective parameters of AD,and recent developments in AD applications in the field of batteries will be systematically reviewed so that a trend for AD will be finally provided.

关键词： Aerosol deposition Room temperature impact consolidation Ceramic film All-solid-state battery Spray coating technology

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A threefold approach to rescue the 2030 Agenda from failing

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National Science Review 2023年第7期10卷 13-15页

作者： Prajal Pradhan Bauhaus Earth GmbH potsdam institute for climate impact research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association

Countries are not on track to meet the2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development [1] that calls for transformative changes to shift the world onto a sustainable and resilient path.The 2030Agenda comprises 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets to be achieved by 2030,balancing the three sustainability dimensions—social,economic,and environmental.So far,SDGs have had a limited transforma-tive impact [2] because of their selective implementation without considering their complex interactions.SDGs interact positively (i.***.synergies) or negatively(i.***.trade-offs) depending on contextand location-specific mechanisms.Failing to meet SDGs will negatively affect the lives of billions of people and worsen socioeconomic and environmental crises.

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Study on the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and heat source characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in summer

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 117-133页

作者： Yujie LI Xiaoqing GAO Yaoming MA Zeyong HU Zhenchao LI Liwei YANG Xiao JIN Xiyin ZHOU Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions of Chinese Academy of Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology Tianjin Institute of Meteorological ScienceTianjin 300074China institute of Tibetan Plateau research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

There are many types of atmospheric heat engines in land-air systems.The accurate definition,calculation and interpretation of the efficiency of atmospheric heat engines are key to understanding energy transfer and transformation of landair systems.The atmosphere over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)in summer can be regarded as a positive heat engine.The study of the heat engine efficiency is helpful to better understand land-air interaction and thermal-dynamic processes on the QTP.It also provides a new perspective to explain the impact of the QTP on the climate of China,East Asia and even the world.In this paper,we used MOD08 and ERA5 reanalysis data to calculate the atmospheric heat engine efficiency,surface heat source and atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer(May to September)from 2000 to 2020.The average atmospheric heat engine efficiency on the QTP in summer from 2000 to 2020 varies between 1.2%and 1.5%,which is less than 1.6%;the heat engine efficiency in summer is higher than that in June,July and August;the Qaidam Basin is the region with the highest atmospheric heat engine efficiency,followed by the western QTP.The mean surface heat source on the QTP in summer from 2000 to 2020 is 96.0 W m^(−2),the atmospheric heat source is 90.7 W m^(−2),and the release of precipitation condensation latent heat is the most important component of the atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer.There is a strong and significant positive correlation between the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and the surface heat source on the QTP in summer.The precipitation condensation latent heat is the most important component of the atmospheric heat source in summer and can reflect the precipitation process.There is a strong and significant negative correlation between the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and the atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer.

关键词： Qinghai-Tibet Plateau climate change Land-air system Atmospheric heat engine Heat source on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath it.The results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and duration.The AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July 2021.This long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July 2021.Moreover,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this AA.These results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote regions.Furthermore,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures

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impact of Initial Soil Conditions on Soil Hydrothermal and Surface Energy Fluxes in the Permafrost Region of the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 717-736页

作者： Siqiong LUO Zihang CHEN Jingyuan WANG Tonghua WU Yao XIAO Yongping QIAO Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Cryosphere research Station on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric ScienceNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China

Accurate initial soil conditions play a crucial role in simulating soil hydrothermal and surface energy fluxes in land surface process modeling.This study emphasized the influence of the initial soil temperature(ST)and soil moisture(SM)conditions on a land surface energy and water simulation in the permafrost region in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)using the Community Land Model version 5.0(CLM5.0).The results indicate that the default initial schemes for ST and SM in CLM5.0 were simplistic,and inaccurately represented the soil characteristics of permafrost in the TP which led to underestimating ST during the freezing period while overestimating ST and underestimating SLW during the thawing period at the XDT site.Applying the long-term spin-up method to obtain initial soil conditions has only led to limited improvement in simulating soil hydrothermal and surface energy fluxes.The modified initial soil schemes proposed in this study comprehensively incorporate the characteristics of permafrost,which coexists with soil liquid water(SLW),and soil ice(SI)when the ST is below freezing temperature,effectively enhancing the accuracy of the simulated soil hydrothermal and surface energy fluxes.Consequently,the modified initial soil schemes greatly improved upon the results achieved through the long-term spin-up method.Three modified initial soil schemes experiments resulted in a 64%,88%,and 77%reduction in the average mean bias error(MBE)of ST,and a 13%,21%,and 19%reduction in the average root-mean-square error(RMSE)of SLW compared to the default simulation results.Also,the average MBE of net radiation was reduced by 7%,22%,and 21%.

关键词： initial soil conditions soil temperature soil liquid water soil ice surface energy fluxes permafrost

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