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A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE DEVASTATING IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM WASHI

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2012年第2期1卷 163-176页

作者： SUSAN R.ESPINUEVA ESPERANZA O.CAYANAN NIVAGINE C.NIEVARES philippine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAGASA)

The December 2011 disaster in the philippines which was induced by TS Washi was investigated. This disastrous event which claimed 1,268 human lives and Ph P1.455 Billion(US$63.26M) damages to infrastructure and agriculture was analyzed in terms of meteorological, hydrological, environmental and social aspects. Government’s response to the disaster was also included. Meteorological analysis was carried out using surface observations, satellite data and simulation of numerical weather prediction model. Intense short duration rainfall upstream the river basin and the damming effect along the river triggered the flashfloods downstream in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan Cities. The strong storm winds coupled with orographic lifting enhanced the rainfall activity over the mountain. The encroachment in the sandbars and the river banks due to urbanization and unabated development impeded the flow of water resulting to greater damage. In addition, the timing of the high tide constrained the flow of the flood waters that resulted to widespread flooding in the downstream areas. This flood event on 16 December 2011 reached a maximum height of 7 meters and the extent of inundation covered about 7 to 10 meters high from the river banks in Cagayan de Oro *** conclusion was that the disaster was the result of the interplay of climatic, environmental and social factors. As a result of the flood disaster and based on the findings of the different agencies, the philippine government came up with various recommendations which include regulation of the development in the floodplain areas, hazard mapping and installation of early warning system.

关键词： tropical storm Washi forecast rainfall satellite based information flashflood disaster river basin management

Flash flood modeling in the data-poor basin:A case study in Matina River Basin

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2021年第2期10卷 87-95页

作者： Rhonalyn V.Macalalad Shichao Xu Roy A.Badilla Socrates F.Paat Bema C.Tajones Yangbo Chen Gerry Bagtasa philippine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology University of the PhilippinesQuezon CityPhilippines

Forecasting flooding hazards is a very effective non-engineering measure for flood ***,the commonly used forecasting method in simulating flash flood events is through a watershed hydrological *** Asia-Pacific countries like the philippines are prone to frequent hydrometeorological hazards such as tropical cyclones,resulting in frequent heavy rainfall ***,most rivers in the many basins lack water flow observation data,which makes it challenging to use lumped and data-driven models for flash flood *** the continuous progress of remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)techniques,the physically-based distributed hydrological model(PBDHMs)has rapidly *** can directly determine the model parameters according to the underlying surface characteristics from remotely-sensed data,which makes it possible for flood forecasting in areas with little to virtually no *** this study,the Matina River basin in Davao City was selected as a case study in simulating a small data-poor basin in the *** Liuxihe model was used to formulate a forecasting scheme and simulated the past flash flood *** results show that there is a good correspondence between the past heavy rainfall events and their corresponding simulated river *** results conform to the hydrological regularities,which can be used for flood forecasting and can serve as a baseline for the development of a flood forecasting system in the rivers of Davao City and elsewhere.

关键词： Typhoon Flash flood Liuxihe model

A DISCUSSION OF THE MOST INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC FROM 1978 TO 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2015年第1期4卷 1-11页

作者： CHUN-WING CHOY SZE-NING CHONG DEXIN KONG ESPERANZA O.CAYANAN Hong Kong Observatory School of Energy and Environment,City University of Hong Kong philippine atmospheric,geophysical and astronomical services administration Hong Kong Observatory School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong philippine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

This study examines a number of very intense tropical cyclones(TCs) in the western North Pacific(WNP) since 1978 as depicted by the best track data from the four main weather agencies in the WNP, namely the Hong Kong Observatory, China Meteorological administration, Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, and the Advanced Dvorak Technique–Hurricane Satellite dataset prepared by the University of Wisconsin/NOAA National Climatic Data Center to identify the most intense TCs in the western North Pacific. Comparison analysis reveals that there are very large differences in the ranking of maximum sustained wind speed(MSW) among these datasets, probably due to data inhomogeneity issues and the discrepancies in TC intensity assessment among these centres. Re-assessment of the MSW of potential candidates suggests that, within uncertainty range of the analysis, Tip(1979) and Haiyan(2013) are the most intense TCs in the WNP during the period. Among the potential candidates, eight of them made landfall during their lifetime. Satellite pattern comparison and the best track dataset analysis of these typhoons show that Haiyan(2013) has the highest estimated MSW right before landfalling, making it the most intense TC making landfall in the WNP during the period 1978-2013.

关键词： tropical cyclone analysis Dvorak analysis Tip Haiyan

AN ALGORITHM TO ENHANCE NOWCAST OF RAINFALL BROUGHT BY TROPICAL CYCLONES THROUGH SEPARATION OF MOTIONS

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2014年第2期3卷 111-121页

作者： W.C.WOO K.K.LI MICHAEL BALA Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina philippine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administrationthe Philippines

The Hong Kong Observatory operates an in-house developed nowcasting system, namely “Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems(SWIRLS)”, to support the operation of rainstorm and severe weather warnings as well as to provide rainfall nowcast services for the public and for special users in Hong Kong. Aiming to enhancing its performance in nowcast of rainfall brought by tropical cyclones, a new radar echo tracking scheme that separates the motion of the spiraling rain bands from the overall movement of tropical cyclone has been developed. Back-testing with historical cases in the past ten years reveals that the new scheme is more capable of preserving tropical cyclone rain band structures and can enhance forecast skills.

关键词： rainfall nowcast quantitative precipitation forecast tropical cyclone

OVERVIEW ON THE PROGRESS OF WORKING GROUP ON METEOROLOGY OF ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE IN THE RECENT 10 YEARS

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第2期8卷 90-100页

作者： XIAOTU LEI CLARENCE FONG VICENTE B MALANO CHE GAYAH ISMAIL Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological administration ShanghaiChina200030 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Secretariat MacaoChina philippine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationManilaPhilippines Malaysian Meteorological Department Kuala LumpurMalaysia

This paper reviews the major achievements of the Working Group on Meteorology(WGM) of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since its establishment in 2004, especially in tropical cyclone observational research and scientific experiments, tropical cyclone monitoring and forecasting technologies, seasonal prediction and climate change assessment for the past decade. The progress illustrates the great value of the Committee and WGM in monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones in the region and the improvement of disaster prevention and reduction capabilities.

关键词： tropical cyclone ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Working Group on Meteorology 50th Anniversary

Forecasting tropical cyclone coastal and marine hazards and impacts

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 1-14页

作者： Nadao Kohno Cody Fritz Monica Sharma Robbie Berg Diana Greenslade Devon Telford Sakeasi Rabitu P.L.N.Murty M.Mohapatra Maria Cristina C.Uson Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan National Hurricane Center MiamiUSA India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Environment and Climate Change Canada QuebecCanada Fiji Meteorological Service NadiFiji Philipine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationQuezon CityPhilippines

The report highlights the signiﬁcant progress over various regions with respect to understanding of coastal hazards,numerical modeling techniques and the generation&dissemination of coastal hazard warnings and *** developments over various regions in the globe during 2014–18 have been discussed in this report as presented during 10th Session of International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-X)at Bali,*** speciﬁcally,various regions have started to confront the uncertainty that cannot be removed from TC analyses and forecasts and further communicate those hazards within the context of risk[probabilistic]based *** also includes impact-based forecasts such as communicating coastal inundation information relative to total water level instead of storm surge,speciﬁcally(i.e.,anomaly from as-tronomical tide and waves).Lastly,updates to model grid conﬁguration,model resolution,and coupled dynamical systems continue to resolve the costal hazards more *** approaches have likely helped reduce loss of life relative to historical ***,regions agree that the generation and dissemination of coastal hazard information still need to be improved in view of growing population along the coast and thus increased exposure of life to coastal hazard.

关键词： Coastal inundation Storm surge Probabilistic forecast

Aerosol Optical Properties and Its Radiative Forcing over Yulin, China in 2001 and 2002

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2009年第3期26卷 564-576页

作者：车慧正张小曳 Stephane ALFRARO Bernadette CHATENET Laurent GOMES 赵剑琦 Key Laboratory of atmospheric Chemistry Centre for Atmosphere Watch and ServicesChinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systmes Atmosphriques Universit Paris Ⅶ/Paris Ⅻ94010 Crteil Cedex France Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Meto-France/CNRM/GMEI/MNPCA31057ToulouseFrance State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

The aerosol optical properties and direct radiative forcing over the Mu Us desert of northern China, acquired through a CE318 sunphotometer of the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network （AERONET）, are analyzed. The seasonal variations in the aerosol optical properties are examined. The effect of meteorological elements （pressure, temperature, water vapor pressure, relative humidity and wind speed） on the aerosol optical properties is also studied. Then, the sources and optical properties under two different cases, a dust event and a pollution event, are compared. The results show that the high aerosol optical depth （AOD） found in Yulin was mostly attributed to the occurrence of dust events in spring from the Mu Us desert and deserts of West China and Mongolia, as well as the impacts of anthropogenic pollutant particles from the middle part of China in the other seasons. The seasonal variation and the probability distribution of the radiative forcing and the radiative forcing efficiency at the surface and the top of the atmosphere are analyzed and regressed using the linear and Gaussian regression methods.

关键词： aerosol optical properties aerosol radiative forcing Mu Us desert China

Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 323-340页

作者： K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Honolulu HonoluluUSA National Hurricane Center Miami FLUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia philippine atmospheric Geophysicaland Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University USA National Aeronautics and Space administration MarylandUSA Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological administration HanoiViet Nam China Meteorological administration BeijingChina Regional Specialized Meteorological Center New Delhi New DelhiIndia Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Centre TokyoJapan Department of Physics Imperial College LondonUK Korea Meteorological administration SeoulRepublic of Korea

Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research *** report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both *** IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks *** prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis *** operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.

关键词： Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone genesis Ensemble Prediction Operational Forecasting Probabilistic Verification Survey Global

RECENT ADVANCES IN RESEARCH AND FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK, INTENSITY, AND STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第2期7卷 85-105页

作者： MARIE-DOMINIQUE LEROUX KIMBERLY WOOD RUSSELL L.ELSBERRY ESPERANZA O.CAYANAN ERIC HENDRICKS MATTHEW KUCAS PETER OTTO ROBERT ROGERS BUCK SAMPSON ZIFENG YU Météo-France DIROI/EC Mississippi State University University of Colorado-Colorado Springs philippine atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Naval Postgraduate School Joint Typhoon Warning Center Bureau of Meteorology NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division Naval Research Laboratory Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique China Meteorological Administration

This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.

关键词： tropical cyclone track intensity structure landfall rapid intensification rapid changes