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Climate Change and Heavy Rainfall-Related Water Damage Insurance Claims and Losses in ontario, canada

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2012年第2期4卷 49-62页

作者： Chad Shouquan Cheng Qian Li Guilong Li Heather Auld Science Section Operations-Ontario Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Toronto Canada

The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, and Toronto) located at ontario, canada. To achieve this goal, the future climate change scenarios and rainfall simulations, at local scale, were needed. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale five global climate model (GCM) scenarios to selected weather stations. The downscaled meteorological variables included surface and upper-air hourly temperature, dew point, west-east and south-north winds, air pressure, and total cloud cover. These variables are necessary to project future daily rainfall quantities using within-weather-type rainfall simulation models. A model result verification process has been built into the whole exercise, including rainfall simulation modeling and the development of downscaling transfer functions. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, showed a very good agreement. To effectively evaluate heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses, a rainfall index was developed considering rainfall intensity and duration. The index was evaluated to link with insurance data as to determination of a critical threshold of the rainfall index for triggering high numbers of rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The relationship between rainfall index and insurance data was used with future rainfall simulations to project changes in future heavy rainfall-related sewer flood risks in terms of water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The modeled results showed that, averaged over the five GCM scenarios and across the study area, both the monthly total number of rainfall-related water damage claims and incurred losses could increase by about 13%, 20% and 30% for the periods 2016-2035, 2046-206

关键词： Climate Change Statistical Downscaling Rainfall-Related Flooding Risks Water Damage Insurance Claims canada

Sudden Natural Deaths in ontario,canada:A Retrospective Autopsy Analysis(2012-2016)

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Journal of Forensic Science and Medicine 2020年第1期6卷 18-26页

作者： Jayantha C.Herath Olivia Liu ontario Forensic Pathology Service Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology University of TorontoToronto Department of Anthropology(Forensic Science) University of Toronto MississaugaMississaugaONCanada

This study was performed to identify the categories and distribution of sudden natural deaths(SNDs)in ontario(ON)from January 2012 to December 2016 as no such reports have been published in ON,and the authors sought to find out the distribution of SND across ON by organ system,age,and *** medicolegal databases were searched,and eight major categories of SND were identified and evaluated using multinomial logistic *** the 5-year period,10,880 autopsies were performed on individuals aged 1–100,who died of sudden and natural *** 800 causes of SNDs were recorded from January 2012 to December *** largest category of SND was attributed to diseases and complications of the cardiovascular system(64.1%)followed by the respiratory system(9.1%),gastrointestinal system(6.9%),central nervous system(6.0%),metabolic diseases(3.8%),chronic alcoholism(3.5%),other(2.4%),infectious diseases(2.2%),and cancer(1.8%).The five most common causes of SND were also cardiovascular in origin,which included atherosclerotic heart disease(n=2127,19.5%),atherosclerotic and hypertensive heart disease(n=711,6.5%),myocardial infarction(n=723,6.6%),hypertensive heart disease(n=518,4.8%),and pulmonary embolism(n=377,3.5%).Determination of cause of death in natural deaths is an important part in death investigation,which can provide crucial information in the interest of public health by identifying public health risks and monitoring disease trends.

关键词： Cause of death epidemiology forensic pathology forensic science ontario sudden natural death

Life cycle cost and economic assessment of biochar-based bioenergy production and biochar land application in Northwestern ontario, canada

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Forest Ecosystems 2017年第1期4卷 12-21页

作者： Krish Homagain Chander Shahi Nancy Luckai Mahadev Sharma Faculty of Natural Resources Management Lakehead University 955 Oliver Rd. Thunder Bay ON P7B 5E1 Canada ontario Forest Research Institute 1235 Queen Street E Sault Ste. Marie ON P6A 2E5 Canada.

Background： Replacement of fossil fuel based energy with biochar-based bioenergy production can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions while mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change and global warming. However, the production of biochar-based bioenergy depends on a sustainable supply of biomass. Although, Northwestern ontario has a rich and sustainable supply of woody biomass, a comprehensive life cycle cost and economic assessment of biochar-based bioenergy production technology has not been done so far in the region. Methods： In this paper, we conducted a thorough life cycle cost assessment （LCCA） of biochar-based bioenergy production and its land application under four different scenarios： 1） biochar production with low feedstock availability; 2） biochar production with high feedstock availability; 3） biochar production with low feedstock availability and its land application; and 4） biochar production with high feedstock availability and its land applicationusing SimaPro, EIOLCA software and spreadsheet modeling. Based on the LCCA results, we further conducted an economic assessment for the break-even and viability of this technology over the project period. Results： It was found that the economic viability of biochar-based bioenergy production system within the life cycle analysis system boundary based on study assumptions is directly dependent on costs of pyrolysis, feedstock processing （drying, grinding and pelletization） and collection on site and the value of total carbon offset provided by the system. Sensitivity analysis of transportation distance and different values of C offset showed that the system is profitable in case of high biomass availability within 200 km and when the cost of carbon sequestration exceeds CAD S60 per tonne of equivalent carbon （CO2e）. Conclusions： Biochar-based bioenergy system is economically viable when life cycle costs and environmental assumptions are accounted for. This study provides a medium scale slow-pyrolysis pla

关键词： LCA LCCA SimaPro Biochar Biomass Pyrolysis Bioenergy Wood Pellets

Life cycle environmental impact assessment of biochar-based bioenergy production and utilization in Northwestern ontario,canada

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Journal of Forestry Research 2015年第4期26卷 799-809页

作者： Krish Homagain Chander Shahi Nancy Luckai Mahadev Sharma Faculty of Natural Resources Management Lakehead University ontario Forest Research Institute

Biochar-based bioenergy production and sub- sequent land application of biochar can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by fixing atmospheric carbon into the soil for a long period of time. A thorough life cycle assessment of biochar-based bioenergy production and biochar land application in Northwestern ontario is conducted using SimaPro Ver. 8.1. The results of energy consumption and potential environmental impact of biochar-based bioenergy production system are compared with those of conventional coal-based system. Results show that biocbar land application consumes 4847.61 MJ per tonne dry feedstock more energy than conventional system, but reduces the GHG emissions by 68.19 kg CO2e per tonne of dry feed- stock in its life cycle. Biochar land application improves ecosystem quality by 18 %, reduces climate change by 15 %, and resource use by 13 % but may adversely impact on human health by increasing disability adjusted life years by 1.7 % if biomass availability is low to medium. Replacing fossil fuel with woody biomass has a positiveimpact on the environment, as one tonne of dry biomass feedstock when converted to biochar reduces up to 38 kg CO2e with biochar land application despite using more energy. These results will help understand a comprehensive picture of the new interventions in forestry businesses, which are promoting biochar-based bioenergy production.

关键词： Woody biomass Carbon sequestration Environmental impact assessment Greenhouse gasemissions Life cycle analysis Soil amendment

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Extremes at Local Scale in ontario, canada. Part I: Historical Simulation

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2012年第4期2卷 416-426页

作者： Chad Shouquan Cheng Qian Li Guilong Li Heather Auld Adaptation and Impacts Research Division Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada Toronto Canada Science Section Operations—Ontario Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Toronto Canada

The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of ontario, canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow simulation modeling theories were collectively applied to simulate daily streamflow volumes. Based on conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling principle, the predictors were selected to take into account several physical factors that affect streamflow, such as (1) current and previous quantities of rainfall over the watershed, (2) an index of pre-storm moisture conditions, (3) an index of pre-storm evapotranspiration capacities, and (4) a seasonal factor representing seasonal variation of streamflow volume. These rainfall-runoff conceptual factors were applied to an autocorrelation correction regression procedure to develop a daily streamflow simulation model for each of the four selected river basins. The streamflow simulation models were validated using a leave-one-year-out cross-validation scheme. The simulation models identified that the explanatory predictors are consistent with the physical processes typically associated with high-streamflow events. Daily streamflow simulation models show that there are significant correlations between daily streamflow observations and model validations, with model R2s of 0.68-0.71, 0.61-0.62, 0.71-0.74, and 0.95 for Grand, Humber, Upper Thames, and Rideau River Basins, respectively. The major reason for the model performance varying across the basins might be that rainfall-runoff response time and physical characteristics differ significantly among the selected river basins. The results suggest that streamflow simulation models can be used to assess possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes at a local scale, which is major objective of a companion paper (Part II).

关键词： Rainfall-Related Streamflow Simualtion Statistic Methods ontario canada

Nonnatural Deaths of Children under the Age of 5 Years in ontario, canada: A Retrospective Autopsy Analysis of 10 Years (2006–2015)

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Journal of Forensic Science and Medicine 2017年第4期3卷 197-202页

作者： Syeda Sakina Rizvi Jayantha C Herath Department of Public Health Lakehead UniversityThunder Bay Provincial Forensic Pathology Unit Forensic Pathology ServiceTorontoOntarioCanada Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology University of Toronto

The goal of this study is to unravel the common patterns observed among nonnatural deaths of children under 5 years and suggest ways to prevent such unnecessary *** study was confined to the province of ontario to allow the identification of regional specific *** database at the Office of the Chief Coroner of ontario was searched for all pediatric deaths from the years 2006–*** nonnatural deaths for children under the age of 5 years,including sudden infant death syndrome,were selected for the *** and cause of death along with the corresponding year were recorded in *** the 10‑year period,940 nonnatural deaths were identified in ontario through autopsy records which are equal to approximately 36.7%of the total childhood *** were 295 accidental cases(11.6%)and 71 homicides(2.8%).The leading causes of nonnatural childhood deaths in ontario were drowning,traffic accidents,blunt trauma,and *** deaths are preventable through education and training of *** of educational interventions can significantly reduce nonnatural deaths of children in ontario.

关键词： Accidental death drowning homicide trauma

Substrate selection and seasonal variation in abundance and size composition of isopod Lirceus fontinalis in ontario streams, canada

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2007年第2期25卷 215-220页

作者： ZHAO Xiaoxia Michael G FOX David C. LASENBY Alexis C. ARMIT Dolly N. KOTHAWALA Watershed Ecosystems Graduate Program Trent University Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada Environmental ＆ Resource Studies Program and Department of Biology Trent University Peterborough ON K9J 7B8 Canada Department of Biology Trent University Peterborough ON K9J 7B8 Canada

The abundance and size composition of stream isopods Lirceusfontinalis were investigated from April 2001 to August 2002 in 3 streams in southem ontario, canada. Effects of current speed was released from the analysis by choosing slow flowing water. The effects of substrate, season and water depth on the abundance, distribution and size composition of the isopods were analyzed. It was found that substrate and season influence isopods the most. The rocky substrate with attached filamentous macro-algae contains an isopod abundance 7.05 times that of bare rock substrate and 14.6 times that of free-sand and mud substrate. There was a large variation with respect to seasonali .ty in both abundance and size composition of the isopods, with the highest abundance occumng in summer and the lowest in winter and spring; individual isopods also tend to be larger in the winter and spring. In all substrates, shallow areas tend to support higher densities of isopods than deeper areas.

关键词： isopods Lirceusfontinalis, size abundance substrate seasonal variation ontario

POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS (PVA) OF THE MASSASAUGA RATTLESNAKE SISTRURUS CATENATUS IN ontario,canada

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POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS (PVA) OF THE MASSASAUGA RATTLE...

Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto,ontario,and canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies

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作者： John Middleton Jee Yan Chu Department of Tourism and Envirnment.Brock Universitv St Catharines ontario. canada L2S3A1 Department of Tourism and Envirnment.Brock Universitv St Catharines ontario. canada L2S3A1

The massasauga rattlesnake,Sistrurus catenatus,is a medium-sized pit viper found in eastern North *** is the only venomous snake in eastern canada,where it is found only in the province of ontario. Owing to habitat fragmentation,direct human persecution,and other factors it now occurs only in isolated pockets within its former *** is listed as“threatened”in canada and“endangered”in the *** study examines available demographic data using Population Viability Analysis(PVA)to consider the long-term viability of the massasauga. It aims to determine the most vulnerable life-stage of this species so that conservation resources can be focussed to maximize its chance of *** study points out important gaps in the data set to date on the massasauga,and thus helps focus future field studies on conservation of this ***:Demographic data were extracted

关键词： OF THE MASSASAUGA RATTLESNAKE SISTRURUS CATENATUS IN ontario,canada POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS PVA

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 83-93页

作者： Pei Yuan Elena Aruffo Yi Tan Liu Yang Nicholas HOgden Aamir Fazil Huaiping Zhu Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Centre for Diseases ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoONCanada Public Health Agency of canada(PHAC) OttawaONCanada

At the end of 2021,with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant,testing centers in canada were *** alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity,many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests,making the count of new cases *** designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines,social behaviours,booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant *** better describe the testing eligibility,we considered the population divided into high risk and non-highrisk *** model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9,2022,on cases and severe outcomes in canada,the province of ontario and City of *** conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity,self testing,different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe *** results show that the total number of cases in canada,ontario and Toronto are 2.34(95%CI:1.22e3.38),2.20(95%CI:1.15e3.72),and 1.97(95%CI:1.13e3.41),times larger than reported cases,*** current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions,such as limited capacity in public spaces,are *** more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes;however,if PCR test capacity is insufficient,then it is important to promote self ***,we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections,peaking in late March or April *** and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus.

关键词： PCR testing Self-testing Booster dose Social behavior Mathematical model COVID-19 Omicron Exit strategy