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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2020年第1期9卷 1-22页

作者： Tsz-Cheung Lee Thomas R.Knutson Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Ming Ying Eun Jeong Cha Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA PrincetonNJUSA meteorological Research Institute/Japan meteorological agency TsukubaJapan Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina National Typhoon Center Korea Meteorological AdministrationJejuRepublic of Korea

Published findings on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones(TCs)in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region are *** focus on observed TC changes in the western North Pacific(WNP)basin,including frequency,intensity,precipitation,track pattern,and storm *** from an updated survey of impacts of past TC activity on various Members of the Typhoon Committee are also *** TC datasets continue to show substantial interdecadal variations in basin-wide TC frequency and intensity in the *** has been encouraging progress in improving the consensus between different datasets concerning intensity trends.A statistically significant northwestward shift in WNP TC tracks since the 1980s has been *** is low-to-medium confidence in a detectable poleward shift since the 1940s in the average latitude where TCs reach their peak intensity in the WNP.A worsening of storm inundation levels is believed to be occurring due to sea level rise-due in part to anthropogenic influence-assuming all other factors ***,we are not aware that any TC climate change signal has been convincingly detected in WNP sea level extremes *** also consider detection and attribution of observed changes based on an alternative Type II error avoidance perspective.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Typhoons Climate change Typhoon Committee Western North Pacific

COMPARISON OF SOME TROPICAL CYCLONE DATASETS AND CORRECTION OF YEARBOOK DATA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第2期16卷 109-114页

作者：邹燕赵平 Chinese Academy of meteorological Science Fujian Climate Center National meteorological Information Centre

This is a study to compare three selected tropical cyclone datasets separately compiled by CMA Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMASHI), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and the Japan meteorological agency (JMA). The annual frequencies, observation times and destructive power index as the characteristic quantities are investigated of the tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The comparative study has resulted in the following findings: 1) Statistical gaps between the datasets compared are narrowing down as the intensity of tropical cyclones increases. 2) In the context of interdecadal distribution, there is for the 1950s a relatively large gap between the datasets, as compared with a narrowed gap for the period from the mid 1970s to the 1980s, and a recurring widened gap for the mid and late 1990s. Additionally, an approach is proposed in the paper to correct the wind speed data in the TC Yearbook.

关键词： tropical cyclones datasets comparison comparative study

Effect of stones on the sand saltation threshold during natural sand and dust storms in a stony desert in Tsogt-Ovoo in the Gobi Desert,Mongolia

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Journal of Arid Land 2021年第7期13卷 653-673页

作者： Batjargal BUYANTOGTOKH Yasunori KUROSAKI Atsushi TSUNEKAWA Mitsuru TSUBO Batdelger GANTSETSEG Amarsaikhan DAVAADORJ Masahide ISHIZUKA Tsuyoshi T SEKIYAMA Taichu Y TANAKA Takashi MAKI Arid Land Research Center Tottori UniversityTottori 680-0001Japan Information and Research Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and EnvironmentUlaanbaatar 15160Mongolia Faculty of Engineering and Design Kagawa UniversityTakamatsu 761-0396Japan meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyTsukuba 305-0052Japan

Non-erodible elements such as stones and vegetation are key to controlling wind erosion and dust emission in *** deserts are widely distributed in the Gobi Desert,but the effect of stones on wind erosion and dust emission have not been well studied,except under artificial *** this study,we evaluated the effect of stones on wind erosion and dust emission by measuring the sand saltation threshold in a stony desert in Tsogt-Ovoo in the Gobi Desert,Mongolia,under natural surface conditions during sand and dust *** quantified the amount of stones by measuring the roughness density,and determined the threshold friction velocity for sand saltation by measuring wind speed and sand saltation *** results showed that the threshold friction velocity increased with the roughness density of *** the northern part of the study area,where neither a surface crust nor vegetation was observed,the roughness density of stones was 0.000 in a topographic depression(TD),0.050 on a northern slope(***),and 0.160 on the northern mountain(***).The mean threshold friction velocity values were 0.23,0.41,and 0.57 m/s at the TD,***,and *** sites,*** the southern part of the study area,the roughness density values of stones were 0.000 and 0.070-0.320 at the TD and southern slope sites,respectively,and the mean threshold friction velocities were 0.23 and 0.45-0.71 m/s,*** further compared the observed threshold friction velocities with simulated threshold friction velocities using Raupach's theoretical roughness correction and the measured roughness density values,and found that Raupach's roughness correction worked very well in the simulation of threshold friction velocity in the stony *** means that the results of our stone measurement can be applied to a numerical dust model.

关键词： arid region threshold friction velocity roughness density shear stress sand saltation threshold roughness correction Gobi Desert

AN INTRODUCTION OF ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVATION, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST IN JMA

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第3期7卷 153-163页

作者： YOSHIAKI TAKEUCHI Administration Department Japan Meteorological Agency

Impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings are the key approach to reduce disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs). This review paper highlights Japan meteorological agency's and RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center's development and eff orts to operationalization of various TC observation, analysis and numerical weather prediction(NWP) techniques, which are the fundamental basis of the *** monitoring has been carried out with geostationary satellites named Himawari series since 1978. Since 2015 the fi rst new generation satellite Himawari-8 has established new era of the TC monitoring at a high resolution and frequency. In addition, space-borne microwave instruments have provided many hydrological properties around *** for ground based observation, radar is a powerful tool to investigate the TC structure characterized by rain distribution and wind fi elds. A phased-array radar gives us the vivid pictures of individual cumulonimbus with its quick scan ***-Tokyo uses the Himawari-8/9 images, atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs), space-borne microwave images, sea surface winds of scatterometer, and ground-based radar wind observation for the TC intensity analysis. For NWP, many eff orts have been put into new assimilation schemes, high-resolution models and combined atmosphere-ocean models. Ensemble based analysis and forecast system are considered to be eff ective to estimate the uncertainty of the TC forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclone observation tropical cyclone analysis tropical cyclone forecast JMA

Quantifying interagency differences in intensity estimations of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019)

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第1期16卷 5-16页

作者： Lina BAI Jie TANG Rong GUO Shuai ZHANG Kaiye LIU Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Shanwei meteorological Observatory Shanwei 516600China

There were significant discrepancies in the intensity estimations of Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)among the China meteorological Administration(CMA),the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC),and the Japan meteorological agency(JMA)data sets,with a maximum difference of over 12 m/s and 16 m/s between the JTWC data set and the CMA and JMA data sets,*** the intensification phase,disagreement on the maximum sustained wind(MSW)between these agencies was due to the use of different conversion tables for the current intensity number(CI)estimated by Dvorak *** addition,CI discrepancies and different available observational data were also important contributors to the different intensities estimated during the Lekima’s decay phase before *** ability of various methods to minimize these discrepancies was evaluated in this *** the linear factor multiplication method and the remapping method using the same CI-MSW conversion table have substantially abilities to reduce intensity discrepancies,with the latter method being more ***,these improvements only hold for the intensification phase in the *** CMA data set had more complete and accurate intensity estimations when Lekima made landfall in *** its landfall,the intensity estimate of the CMA was comparable to that of the JMA,which differed greatly from that of the JTWC.

关键词： China. Typhoon tables

A Study on Typhoon-Induced Rainfalls over Beijing:Statistics and Case Analysis

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第6期25卷 742-753页

作者：丁德平李英 Beijing meteorological Bureau State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Based on the Shanghai Typhoon Institute （STI） Typhoon Year t3ook and typhoon precipitation data, Japan meteorological agency satellite TBB data, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data, the climatic characteristics of rainfalls in Beijing associated with typhoons were analyzed for the period 1949-2006, and two typhoon cases with remarkable differences in rainfall intensity over Bei- jing were compared and diagnosed. The 58-yr statistical results show that rainfall events associated with typhoons occurred in Beijing about once every three years during June-September. These typhoons were mainly active in the region 20°- 50°N, 109°- 128°E and most of them moved northwestward while the others turned to the northeast. The typhoon rainfall over Beijing in general sustained for 2 5 days. Typhoon centers were usually located in the areas from Jiangxi to Anhui, the Yellow Sea, or near Beijing, when rain- storms occurred over Beijing. Case study indicates that the 2-day torrential rainfall event that happened in Beijing in 1984 was due to the interaction between Typhoon Freda （8407） and a westerly trough, while only a medium-strength rainfall event occurred in Beijing in 2005 in spite of the dominating cyclonic circulation of Typhoon Matsa （0509） directly over Beijing. It is found that both Preda and Matsa underwent extra- tropical transition and possessed an asymmetric structure. The rainfall difference was caused by the fact that Beijing was located in different convective development areas of the two typhoons. On the other hand, the lifting conditions were different although plentiful atmospheric moisture and convective unstable energy existed over Beijing during both events. The ascending motion of warm southerly in Beijing was stronger and deeper and a larger vertical wind shear was associated with Typhoon Freda. However, the lifting of water vapor was restrained by the descending motion of northerly cold airflow in Beijing under the impa

关键词： Beijing rainfall typhoon climatic features interaction

Food contamination as a pathway for lead exposure in children during the 2010–2013 lead poisoning epidemic in Zamfara,nigeria

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2018年第5期30卷 260-272页

作者： Simba Tirima Casey Bartrem Ian von Lindern Margrit von Braun Douglas Lind Shehu Mohamed Anka Aishat Abdullahi TerraGraphics International Foundation MoscowID 83843USA University of Idaho Environmental Science ProgramMoscowID 83843USA Zamfara Environmental Sanitation agency Zamfara StateNigeria

In 2010, an estimated 400 to 500 children died of acute lead poisoning associated with artisanal gold mining in Zamfara, nigeria. Processing of gold ores containing up to 10% lead within residential compounds put residents, especially children, at the highest risk. Principal routes of exposure were incidental ingestion and inhalation of contaminated soil and dusts. Several nigerian and international health organizations collaborated to reduce lead exposures through environmental remediation and medical treatment. The contribution of contaminated food to total lead exposure was assessed during the environmental health response. Objectives of this investigation were to assess the influence of cultural/dietary habits on lead exposure pathways and estimate the contribution of contaminated food to children＇s blood lead levels（BLLs）. A survey of village dietary practices and staple food lead content was conducted to determine dietary composition, caloric intakes, and lead intake. Potential blood lead increments were estimated using bio-kinetic modeling techniques. Most dietary lead exposure was associated with contamination of staple cereal grains and legumes during post-harvest processing and preparation in contaminated homes. Average post-harvest and processed cereal grain lead levels were 0.32 mg/kg and 0.85 mg/kg dry weight, respectively. Age-specific food lead intake ranged from 7 to 78 μg/day. Lead ingestion and absorption were likely aggravated by the dusty environment, fasting between meals, and nutritional deficiencies. Contamination of staple cereal grains by highly bioavailable pulverized ores could account for as much as 11%–34% of children＇s BLLs during the epidemic, and were a continuing source after residential soil remediation until stored grain inventories were exhausted.

关键词： Artisanal mining Environmental health Lead poisoning nigerian environmentalcontamination Dietary exposures Para-occupational exposuresChildren's health

Update on Fengyun meteorological Satellite Program and Development

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空间科学学报 2020年第5期40卷 884-897页

作者： ZHANG Peng CHEN Lin XIAN Di XU Zhe GUAN Min National Satellite meteorological Center/National Center for Space Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

China began to develop its meteorological satellite program since *** 50-years’growing,there are 17 Fengyun(FY)meteorological satellites launched *** present,seven of them are in orbit to provide the operational service,including three polar orbiting meteorological satellites and four geostationary meteorological *** last COSPAR report,no new Fengyun satellite has been *** information of the on-orbit FY-2 series,FY-3 series,and FY-4 series has been ***-3D and FY-2H satellites accomplished the commission test and transitioned into operation in ***-2E satellite completed its service to decommission in *** web-based users and Direct Broadcasting(DB)users keep growing worldwide to require the Fengyun satellite data and products.A new Mobile Application Service has been launched to Fengyun users based on the cloud technology in *** this report,the international and regional co-operations to facilitate the Fengyun user community have been addressed *** strengthen the data service in the Belt and Road countries,the Emergency Support Mechanism of Fengyun satellite(FY_ESM)has been established since ***,a Recalibrating 30-years’archived Fengyun satellite data project has been founded since *** project targets to generate the Fundamental Climate Data Record(FCDR)as a space agency response to the Global Climate Observation System(GCOS).At last,the future Fengyun program up to 2025 has been introduced as well.

关键词： Fengyun meteorological satellite Product and data service International co-operation and supporting Historical Chinese Fengyun satellite data recalibrating Future program

Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical ***Ⅰ:Initial Uncertainties

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第7期33卷 841-851页

作者： Feifan ZHOU Munehiko YAMAGUCHI Xiaohao QIN Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmowheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 meteorological Research Institute of the Japan meteorological agency Tsukuba 305-0052Japan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone （TC） tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES）. The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions （＂initials＂, hereafter）, which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.

关键词： tropical cyclone track forecast error diagnosis Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System initialuncertainty

Distinctive Precursory Air–Sea Signals between Regular and Super El Ni os

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第8期33卷 996-1004页

作者： Lin CHEN Tim LI Swadhin K.BEHERA Takeshi DOI Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Changeand Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and Technology International Pacific Research Center School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii Application Laboratory Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Statistically different precursory air–sea signals between a super and a regular El Ni no group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Ni no events during 1958–2008 are first separated into two groups： a super El Ni no group（S-group） and a regular El Ni no group（R-group）. Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly（SSTA） tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase[April–May（0）], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly（u）.This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly（D） over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.

关键词： super El Ni no precursory air–sea signals thermocline depth anomaly ENSO